Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 290857
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
157 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

 - Above normal temperatures today.

 - Cooler conditions return Monday, though temperatures remain above 
   normal.
 
 - Periodic chances for light rain Tuesday-Thursday.

 - High temperatures Tuesday-Thursday will be near normal to below 
   normal.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 142 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026
(Today and tonight)

Quiet weather continues through Sunday, with the morning forecast 
including a southerly surge of stratus. This can be seen on 
satellite this morning as it creeps up the coast of Monterey. The 
question becomes how far up the coast it makes it before it gets 
mixed out by morning. After that, another warm day is on tap with 
high temperatures being above normal again. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 142 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Zonal flow continues through Monday, though a cooling trend will
begin. High temperatures will remain above normal for one more
day, before becoming near normal to just below normal on Tuesday
due to a pattern change. An shortwave trough passes over the
region which will bring 20-40% chance of rain, favoring the
coastal mountains and the Bay Area. Wednesday chances increase for
the North Bay before gradually tapering off into Thursday.
Temperatures begins to rise Friday and into the weekend. An upper
low slides into the PacNW Thu and then looks to slide into
intermountain west, while high pressure builds over the western
Pacific. This may also bring some breezier winds. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR with a few high clouds across the region. Gentle onshore winds 
will diminish to light winds through Sunday morning. A shallow 
marine layer results in a moderate confidence for IFR-LIFR stratus 
overnight across the immediate coastal region, with patchy fog 
possible, especially at HAF. At STS, low probability and confidence 
for LIFR-IFR conditions early Sunday morning. Elsewhere, VFR 
conditions prevail through Sunday with breezy onshore flow resuming 
in the afternoon, with high resolution model data depicting stratus 
retreating away from the Bay Area coastline. 

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with thin high clouds through the TAF period. 
Gentle west-northwest winds gradually diminish through the next 
couple of hours with light winds Sunday morning, before the breezy 
west-northwest winds resume during the afternoon. Confidence in 
stratus impacts tonight, already low to very low, has decreased at 
the terminal, as well as to the east including at OAK.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... The stratus layer has not developed as 
robustly across the region as the earlier forecast had expected. 
Thus, confidence in stratus impacts tonight has decreased, and some 
model output suggests that MRY could remain VFR overnight. A 
compressing marine layer also results in the possibility of the 
stratus dissipating early, especially at MRY where some offshore 
flow could contribute to clearing. Any stratus that does develop in 
the region should clear late Sunday morning with breezy northwest 
winds resuming in the afternoon. Stratus return is considered 
unlikely on Sunday night through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft persist across the northern
outer waters due to moderate to fresh northerly breezes. This
spreads into the inner waters and the rest of the outer waters on
Sunday, when infrequent strong gusts are expected. Moderate
northwesterly breezes on Tuesday will back to become southerly by
Wednesday. Light rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate seas
will prevail through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Here are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for
March 29th.

Location          March 29th

Santa Rosa        86 in 2018
San Rafael        85 in 2018
Kentfield         84 in 1935
Napa              83 in 2018, 1968
Richmond          79 in 1968
Livermore         85 in 2015
San Francisco     81 in 2018
SFO Airport       81 in 2018
Redwood City      85 in 2018, 1968
Half Moon Bay     77 in 2004
Oakland           79 in 2003
San Jose          82 in 2018
Salinas Airport   86 in 2018

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Mar 29 04:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service