Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 032118
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
118 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

 - Moderate to strong winds expected along the coast and across 
   higher terrain Wednesday through Friday

 - Offshore winds will bring warmer weather this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Mostly sunny skies have returned to the region this afternoon, 
except for coastal locations of Marin County and the San Francisco
Peninsula. As such, temperatures are forecast to warm up to 
around 10 degrees F above seasonal averages in the warmest 
interior valleys has a short wave ridge builds ahead of an 
approaching mid/upper level trough. 

A rather dry cold front is forecast to move through the region on
Wednesday morning with increasing north to northwest winds 
developing by the late morning and more so by the afternoon. There
remains a slight chance for light rain across far northern Sonoma
County, yet not expecting much if any measurable rainfall. The 
strongest winds tomorrow will remain over the coastal waters, 
along the coastline, and in the higher terrain with gusts up to 
35-45 mph. However, at this time, we do not anticipate a Wind 
Advisory as widespread coverage does not appear to be great 
enough. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be near seasonal 
averages in wake of the frontal passage with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Moderate winds are forecast to resume Wednesday night into 
Thursday and will limit the cooling potential. As such, expecting 
upper 30s to lower 40s across the interior with low to upper 40s 
across the remainder of the region. Winds increase once again 
Thursday afternoon with similar directions and speeds as 
previously mentioned in the short term discussion. 

Friday and Saturday will begin a warming trend as the mid/upper 
level low pressure moves from the Great Basin into the 
Intermountain West. This will result in offshore flow, especially 
for the higher terrain across the region. By Sunday afternoon, 
temperatures are forecast to be between 10 to 20 degrees above 
normal resulting in more widespread Minor HeatRisk. This will be 
as a mid/upper level cut off low develops off the coast of Baja 
California. 

The forecast ensembles show continued ridging across the region 
which supports the Climate Prediction Center's above normal 
temperatures and below normal precipitation in the 8-14 Day 
Outlooks. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

Lingering MVFR-LIFR stratus and fog continue across the Bay Area 
and the southern Monterey Bay region, with further dissipation 
expected through the next few hours barring the immediate coast 
near Point Reyes and the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula, 
where the stratus could linger through the day. A light to gentle 
onshore flow will develop this afternoon, lingering into the 
evening as the stratus returns to the valleys. The passing of a 
cold front may result in some sprinkles overnight into Wednesday 
morning, but the main impact will be to maintain a moderate 
northwest breeze through the night before winds increase Wednesday
afternoon, after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus lingers for the next couple of 
hours. A gentle to moderate west-northwest breeze will develop 
through the afternoon and evening hours, with winds remaining gentle 
overnight as MVFR stratus returns to the terminal. Stronger winds 
are expected to develop on Wednesday as a cold front passes.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Lingering stratus should dissipate within 
the next hour. A gentle northwest breeze should develop in the 
afternoon, with light winds this evening as MVFR stratus returns 
overnight. Winds begin to increase from the north towards the end of 
the TAF period, with clearing of the stratus around or just after 
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 846 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

Expect hazardous marine weather conditions Wednesday through
Friday. A moderate northwest breeze today increases to a strong
northwest breeze on Wednesday and near gale force winds by
Thursday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet
across exposed waters Thursday through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 3 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service