Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 121940
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1240 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Hot and dry today for interior locations with a moderate risk 
   of heat-related illnesses

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along 
   beaches this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (This afternoon through 
Saturday)

The upper-level pattern continues to be influenced by a ridge over 
the eastern Pacific. This maintains the above normal high 
temperatures observed over the last several days and today, 
leading to a moderate risk for heat related illnesses for the  
eastern areas. The Heat Advisory for the interior East Bay and 
South Bay will end this evening. 

GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows the stratus continues to 
move back over the marine environment clearing most of the cities
along the Pacific Coast. Otherwise sunny skies across the area. 
Stratus will continue to push westward for the next several hours 
eventually moving back inland this evening into the overnight 
period following typical June stratus patterns. 

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the Bayshore 
through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new 
moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional 
tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion
of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level 
Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s
will add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through 
early next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in 
January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up 
being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current 
record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Saturday night through 
next Thursday)

A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the 
eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote a  
cooling trend for interior locations into the second half of the 
weekend lessening the risk for heat related illnesses to minor. 
Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus. While 
temperatures will return closer to middle- June climatology, the 
main hazards into early next week will be the southerly swell 
along the coast, plus coastal flooding associated with the high 
tides. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Southerly surge with coastal stratus and fog impacted Half Moon Bay 
and Monterey early this morning with reduced visibilities (IFR-
LIFR). The fog and stratus also reached through the Golden Gate to 
the East Bay, but didn't impact visibilities. Inland conditions 
remained VFR. Diurnal surface heating has started to burn off some 
of the fog allowing for ceilings and visibilities to improve late 
this morning. As diurnal surface heating continues this afternoon 
ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve (back to MVFR and 
VFR) along the coastline. High resolution modeling continues to show 
coastal stratus and fog (IFR-LIFR) to redevelop tonight and tomorrow 
morning. Similar conditions from this morning are expected again 
tomorrow morning. Winds will follow similar patterns to the past 24 
hours with speeds increasing to moderately breezy this afternoon, 
but diminishing around sunset. 

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR conditions continuing into 
the overnight hours. Current NE winds will go NW'rly early this 
afternoon (~20Z). Wind speeds will increase into the middle teens 
this afternoon, but subside back below 10 kt around or shortly after 
sunset. Winds will then go westerly early tomorrow morning before 
going light and variable by the middle of tomorrow morning. IFR 
conditions are forecasted for tomorrow morning as radiative cooling 
may result in some patchy low stratus/fog developing. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Winds will predominately be out of the 
W/NW at OAK through the period. Winds at SJC will be out of the NW 
through this evening before going S/SE during the overnight hours. 
Wind speeds, at both sites, will be in the low to mid teens this 
afternoon through sunset, otherwise winds will be aob 8 kt. For OAK, 
morning stratus/fog (IFR) is expected to redevelop tonight and 
tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. At SJC, VFR 
conditions are anticipated the whole period as morning stratus is 
not expected to impact the airport.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar conditions from the past 24 hours 
are expected for the next 24 hours. Stratus/fog from earlier this 
morning is starting to burn off with diurnal surface heating 
allowing for conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. Stratus/fog 
(IFR/LIFR) is expected to redevelop and move inland tonight and 
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and variable (but may tend to 
be more onshore winds) through the majority of the period.
Westerly winds are expected to increase to 7-10 kt this afternoon, 
then subside around sunset. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low 
south southwest swell persist across the coastal waters. The winds 
will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the seas 
subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, 
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach 
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply 
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, 
Santa Cruz counties. Hazardous beach conditions will expand to 
include Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay
Area coast starting Saturday evening through Tuesday morning. Be 
sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves 
will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially 
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being 
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the 
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if 
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late 
     Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Berislavich 
MARINE...Berislavich

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jun 12 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service