FXUS66 KMTR 212117
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
117 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
- Another chilly night for the interior Central Coast and East Bay,
low temperatures in the 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures fall into
the 40s.
- Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying to
sag into the North Bay.
- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind late Monday
through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon is quite spectacular as
you can see the massive low pressure system sitting over the Eastern
Pacific. Closer to home, here in CA, a disturbance is pushing over
northern California. Any sight of rain is well to our north right
now, but high clouds are slowly starting to infiltrate the area. The
most likely area to see any accumulating rain today will be the
northern part of Sonoma County, but it's capped at 20-40% chance of
happening. Tomorrow chances increase to 20-80% for the North Bay,
with the highest percentages being found over, you guessed it,
northwestern Sonoma County with chances decreasing as you move
southeastward. Elsewhere, dry conditions should prevail.
In terms of temperatures tonight, lows improve for much of the Bay
Area tonight thanks to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures will
fall into the 40s for most areas, near 50 along the coast, and the
upper 30s for areas that remain clear. For the Central Coast, Santa
Cruz and the Monterey Bay area are similar. Colder conditions will
be found across the interior portions, where low temperatures manly
span the 30s. Opted to hold off on a Cold Weather Advisory for the
Southern Salinas Valley and adjacent mountain zones given the
coverage and duration of temperatures of colder temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
The long term forecast remains interesting as an upper level ridge
will build over the Desert Southwest and Baja California area. This
should keep the low pressure either west or northwest of the region,
which continues to mess with our rain chances this upcoming week.
For now, rainy conditions look to occur from late Monday through
Wednesday, favoring the Bay Area as a surface low pulls in moisture
from the southwest. The highest amounts of rain should occur in the
North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula/Santa Cruz mountains, with
amounts generally decreasing as you move inland or south. Once the
rain tappers off on Wednesday, a warming and drying trend is on tap
for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Currently expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF
period. Southerly winds will increase late this morning and into
the afternoon, strongest near the coast and typically windy spots
across the region with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Winds then ease late
in the evening and into Sunday morning. Have VCSH toward the end
of the TAF period across the North Bay and Bay Area Terminals as a
system brushes the region, yet remains well to the north. There
is a low to moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings across the North
Bay and the Monterey Bay Terminals early Sunday morning. There is
also low confidence for LLWS tomorrow morning, yet not high
enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will continue to
stream across the region through much of the TAF period. Southerly
winds will increase by late morning or early afternoon with gusts
up to 25 kt. Winds then ease late this evening and into Sunday
morning. VCSH remains in the forecast as light rain showers are
forecast by around 16Z Sunday and continue through early Sunday
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will stream
in from the north later today and linger through the rest of the TAF
period. Southerly winds will increase a bit this afternoon and
evening before easing late this evening, especially at KMRY while
southerly flow will remain moderate at KSNS. There is low confidence
for MVFR ceilings at both terminals early Sunday morning, yet have
SCT025 to account for the uncertainty.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Expect fresh to moderate southerly breezes this morning with gale
force gusts developing by the afternoon, especially across the
northern waters. Rough to very rough seas persist starting tonight
into the beginning of next week. Rain chances increase across
northern waters tonight, becoming more widespread across the
northern waters by Saturday night, then spread farther south by
Monday. Winds and seas begin to ease by the middle of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 21 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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