FXUS66 KMTR 112213
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
213 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
- High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight
conditions
- Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches
continue throughout the week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(This evening through Monday)
Another night of chilly weather is in the forecast as persistent
ridging keeps the weather quiet for us. The deterministic NBM is
improving in terms of the forecasted low temperatures in comparison
to the previous few days. Temperatures this morning trended a few
degrees cooler than even the adjusted forecast had. Given this,
decided to blend in this morning's observed temperatures with the
deterministic NBM to pull tomorrow morning's temperatures down
slightly. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Bay
Valleys, East Bay Interior Valleys, the southern Salinas Valley, and
interior San Benito County from 1AM-9AM PST Monday morning. Not a
fan of chilly mornings? Temperatures warm into the low 60s across
the Bay Area, 60s across the Central Coast, and even some mid to
upper 60s in the Salinas Valley. Winds remain light and offshore
with locally gusty conditions along the coastline.
A Beach Hazards Statement goes into effect at 5PM this evening and
will remain in effect through Monday evening. If you are going to
the beach, use caution and never turn your back on the ocean! There
is an elevated risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and larger shore
break.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Colder mornings continue through at least Tuesday. We'll have to see
how the current blend does for low temperatures on Monday but a
similar blend may be needed for Tuesday morning. This would most
likely necessitate a few Cold Weather Advisories for the coldest
portions of the interior but they would not be widespread by any
means. Daytime temperatures warm throughout the week and will be in
the mid to upper 60s by mid to late week. The Salinas Valley looks
to be one of the warmer locations with highs reaching the low to mid
70s this week. Morning temperatures warm as well with a return of
more seasonal low temperatures in the 40s expected. Winds remain
light and offshore through the week as upper level ridging
continues. Wondering when our next chance for rain will be? Models
are hinting some rain may be possible towards the end of the month
starting the 21st/22nd but models are not in agreement as to the
placement of ridging vs troughing over the West Coast. Just know
that rain is currently unlikely to return through at least mid-month
with long range guidance indicating some increasing potential by
late month.
While the Beach Hazards Statement is set to expire Monday evening,
hazardous beach conditions are likely to return mid to late week.
Another round of long period swell will result in an increased risk
of sneaker waves and rip currents Wednesday into the end of the
week. If you're heading to the beach keep this in mind and make sure
you never turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
VFR. Broad ridge of high pressure resulting in clear conditions
across the board through this TAF period. The exception being
isolated dense FG invof KSTS overnight through sunrise Monday.
Winds generally light and variable.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Clear conditions anticipated through the
TAF period. NE wind component through the morning hours, but very
likely to stay under 7-8 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Clear skies with light and variable
winds. SE drainage flow out of the Salinas Valley during the
mornings.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 934 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and
larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea
state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week.
Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST this
evening and continue through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast
beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous
beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker
waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous
conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are
expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of
additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ506-
510-516-518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jan 11 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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