FXUS66 KMTR 142315
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
415 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
(This evening through Monday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the marine
stratus and fog has retreated back to the coast as of early this
afternoon. SPC RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave trough
encompassing most of CA centered over the Bay Area. The influence of
this trough will allow for several degrees of cooling from yesterday
across the interior locations. As a result, HeatRisk will also be
decreasing, with more widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay
Area and Central Coast, with some localized areas of Moderate
HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and East/South Bay
locations.
The aforementioned shortwave trough will quickly advect eastward
overnight tonight with a ridge building in the Eastern Pacific. As
the ridge builds and influences our region, temperatures will
warm a few degrees tomorrow. But, HeatRisk will remain widespread
Minor with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk across the region
on Monday. The marine layer is expected to be around 1500 feet
again overnight tonight/tomorrow morning (similar to last
night/this morning). Therefore the marine stratus and fog is
expected to behave similar to that of last night/this morning.
High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along the
low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the
middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0 feet
above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is driven by
multiple contributing factors, including Sunday's new moon and lunar
perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm surge and thermal
expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches of sea level rise
since vertical datums were established in the 1980s/1990s. While
lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (which peaked at
2.6 ft), these tides could end up being the highest observed in the
summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
(Tuesday through Saturday)
The Eastern Pacific ridge will strengthen slightly, maxing out on
Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm another degree or
two on Tuesday, but HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged (with
widespread Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk). Another pattern
change is anticipated as we head into the latter half of the week as
the ridge breaks down and a closed low forms off the coast of
northern California. This low is expected to become an open wave by
the end of the workweek, with the base of the trough moving through
our area this weekend. The low pressure system will bring cooler
temperatures to the region. As a result, HeatRisk will become
widespread Minor with localized areas of little to no risk as early
as Thursday. The ordinary marine stratus is expected to continue to
blanket the usual spots through the majority of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus has retreated to the immediate coastal regions and
will remain there through the day, with breezy onshore winds through
the evening. Overnight, the stratus layer should return to most of
the terminals with moderate to high confidence that the interior
East Bay remaining VFR through the night. Stratus will retreat to
the immediate coastal region on Monday morning with breezy onshore
winds resuming in the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the evening hours, with breezy west-
northwest winds through the evening. IFR stratus will move in
through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate
confidence on stratus impact timing as models differ on how that
stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting
stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay before filling in over
SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus
that forms will dissipate through Monday morning as breezy west-
northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds
to around 15 kt continue through the evening hours. IFR stratus will
move into OAK this evening, then move south towards SJC over the
next several hours. Stratus will dissipate through the course of
Monday morning, with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon
Monterey Bay Terminals... Monitoring a finger of stratus lying just
to the north of SNS for potential early stratus impacts to the
terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next few
hours. Gentle onshore winds prevail at MRY through the evening while
stronger northwest flow persists at SNS. IFR stratus will return
early tonight as winds turn light, clearing through Monday morning
with the gentle to breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon
hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 414 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Southerly breezes and moderate seas continue with a low south-
southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will
remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to
strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters
towards the beginning to middle of the week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Malarkey
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 14 16:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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