FXUS66 KMTR 121135
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
335 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
- Rain showers taper off by late morning with dry weather
through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early
Saturday morning
- Widespread rain and gustier winds return Saturday and persist
into next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Today and tonight)
Offshore, a low pressure system continues to weaken and move
southwards along the California coast. Precipitation associated with
this system has largely ended over but KMUX shows a few scattered
showers lingering over the region. Shower activity will continue to
diminish through the remainder of the morning with largely dry
conditions expected for the remainder of the day. As the low
departs, ridging briefing rebuilds Thursday and Friday which will
give us a brief break in the rain before it returns this weekend
into next week. Temperatures warm, slightly, into the low to mid 60s
across the lower elevations on Thursday while the higher elevations
stay comparatively cooler in the 40s to 50s. Chillier overnight lows
return Thursday night into Friday with lows dropping into the low
40s across the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast. Interior Monterey
and San Benito Counties will get even cooler with lows dropping into
the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far southeastern Monterey County
(Bradley and Fort Hunter Liggett) will reach the low to mid 30s
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
Dry weather continues into Friday with seasonally warm temperatures
in the low to mid 60s. For anyone worrying about a prolonged dry
spell, this does not look to be the case. The upper level ridge
expected Thurs/Fri will be fairly progressive and is expected to
exit eastwards Saturday as a deep upper level trough approaches the
West Coast. This upper level trough and associated surface low will
then linger offshore of the West Coast Mon/Tues before moving inland
by mid-week. This will kickstart the return of rain Saturday
afternoon/evening and will keep us rainy through at least mid next
week. The question then becomes, well how much rain are we
expecting? The answer is a little bit complicated as models have a
large spread in forecast precipitation totals. The NBM alone shows
quite the spread between the 90th percentile and the 10th
percentile. For example, the 24 hour precipitation totals from 4AM
Sunday to 4AM Monday under the 90th percentile show widespread 1.5-
3" with up to 5-6" in the coastal mountain ranges. Comparatively,
the NBM 10th percentile is much more limited with totals ranging
from 0.5-1.5". This hopefully provides some context for why QPF
totals are uncertain and may change as we get closer to this system
arriving. The initial precipitation forecast forecast shows a
widespread 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals between 4-6"
across the coastal mountain ranges from Saturday to Wednesday. This
matches fairly well with the NBM 50th percentile and the NBM mean.
All that to say, the upcoming week is likely going to be a wet one
and the precipitation forecast will continue to be refined as we get
closer in time to it. We can expect flooding concerns to increase
this weekend into next week as we see successive days of
accumulating rain. Soils are on the drier end now but will saturate
quickly as this event begins.
Other concerns for the upcoming week include the potential for
gustier winds Sunday into next week. We can expect gusts between 30
to 40 mph on Sunday and potentially again next Tues/Wed. Currently
winds are below Wind Advisory criteria but can't fully rule out that
one will be needed. There is a low chance (< 20%) for embedded
thunderstorms starting Saturday as we see multiple rounds of rain
move through the region. High temperatures will be seasonally cool
in the upper 40s to 50s across the region for much of the upcoming
week. Morning low temperatures generally stay in the 40s but we can
expect cold mornings in the upper 30s to low 40s to return mid to
late next week as a colder air mass moves in.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Isolated to scattered showers persist over the mountains of the San
Mateo Peninsula with a low pressure system weakening offshore.
Shower activity is expected to diminish through the morning hours
with the rest of the TAF period remaining dry. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions continue through the day with some mid-
to high level cloud cover persisting across the region. Light to
gentle offshore winds continue through the morning, with a shift
towards a gentle to moderate onshore flow developing through the
afternoon and evening. Overnight, the recent rainfall and clearer
skies should promote the development of fog and low stratus,
although the timing remains a little uncertain. This low cloud
cover should persist to the end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... Isolated showers persist along the ridgelines to
the west of the terminal but the terminal itself should remain dry
through the TAF period. VFR conditions persist through the daytime
period with some mid- to high level cloud cover continuing through
the day. A gentle southeast wind this morning will shift
northwesterly in the afternoon. Overnight, as winds diminish to a
light and variable flow, low stratus and perhaps fog may develop,
with low to moderate confidence on timing.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with mid- to high level clouds through
the day. Winds remain light and gently offshore through the morning
before switching to a gentle onshore breeze this afternoon. As winds
diminish overnight, low stratus and fog may develop early Friday
morning, with timing and ceilings still uncertain.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
A weakening low pressure system spins around 50 nautical miles
west of Half Moon Bay, generating cyclonic gentle to moderate
breezes around the low with some fresh gusts to the north of the
low. Winds should generally relax through the course of the
morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this
evening through Friday. Moderate to rough seas are forecast Friday
into the weekend, with 12 to 15 second period northwest swell
coming through the waters. This will equate to hazardous boating
and near- shore conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches,
excluding Northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue
through early Saturday morning. There is an increased risk of
sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves
of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your
beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other
waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous
surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Friday
night for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 12 08:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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