Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 020713
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1213 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

 - Seasonally cool and breezy conditions will continue through 
   Thursday, with marine layer likely to stay in place for many 
   coastal communities south of Pacifica.

 - Pleasant conditions through the holiday weekend, with some
   areas seeing a warming trend Friday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026
(Tonight through Friday)

Thursday is geared to be another day under the influence of the deep 
upper trough over the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern has been 
in place for quite some time now, which has largely kept the marine 
layer over coastal areas and mostly clear skies inland. Thus, we can 
expect a repeat of this weather through the day on Thursday, with 
temperatures along the coast remaining in the 60s and inland 
locations increasing into the 70s and 80s. As we have seen over 
the Monterey Bay area on Wednesday, some breaks in the clouds can 
be expected once again through the afternoon hours. 

Later in the day and into the overnight period, zonal flow starts
to increase over the region and we start to see gradual height 
rises over the area. We are not expecting much of an influence on 
the weather overnight, with the marine layer becoming widespread 
again with lows in the low-mid 50s. Friday onward, the persistent 
longwave pattern that dominated the area will break down. Zonal 
flow will take over, with weak ridging developing over the area. 
Increasing 500 hPa heights will result, where we will start to see
a gradual warming, especially for inland areas. Some locations may
see a 2-4 degree increase compared to Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Guidance favors a weaker marine layer Saturday with weak ridging
and height increases, which should allow for mostly clear skies 
through the afternoon for some. Temperatures for communities along
the coast will largely remain in the mid 60s to near 70, with the
more notable warming noted for inland areas where it will be
mostly clear. This will be especially true for inland areas south
and east of the Monterey Bay area where temperatures in the mid- 
upper 80s will be possible. Some guidance hints at the potential 
for 90 degree temperatures, largely for areas in southern Monterey
and San Benito Counties. HeatRisk along the coastal communities 
will remain Low (green), with inland areas at Minor (yellow). CPC 
continues to highlight the area under favorability for above 
normal temperatures through next week, bringing more summer-like 
weather to the area. The middle of next week and beyond is when we
are starting to see isolated areas of Moderate (orange) HeatRisk,
largely in parts of southwestern Monterey County. Although, 
confidence on this is lower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Stratus with MVFR ceilings are solidly in place along the coast
this evening. Locally breezy onshore winds continue this evening 
before decreasing overnight. Later tonight some of CIGS may
briefly drop to IFR, but this is starting to look less likely 
with them starting around 1500 to 2000 feet. The stratus is 
expected to clear again in most areas, but this may be brief at 
the immediate coast. Stratus, mainly MVFR ceilings with localized 
IFR, will redevelop tonight into Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the evening. Low confidence of a
brief return of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. Winds will 
increase to around 15 kt again Thursday afternoon before
diminishing again overnight. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the evening. 
Confidence is moderate that MVFR stratus will return late tonight
into Wednesday morning at OAK. So far not much has developed as of
05Z so confidence is getting lower on this. At SJC, VFR 
conditions are likely to prevail through Thursday morning. Some 
stratus is moving north near Morgan hill. This is not anticipated 
to make it much farther, but there is a low potential for a brief 
period of MVFR CIGS towards morning. Tonight, winds decreasing and
becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC. Thursday
afternoon winds are expected to become northwest again at SJC 
again by 21 or 22Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR stratus returning quickly this 
evening at both SNS and MRY. Breezy winds are slowly diminishing
this evening and tonight. VFR conditions are expected to return 
in the afternoon on Thursday although confidence is low on the 
timing and it will likely be a similar duration to today.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 923 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Gale force gusts across the northern outer waters will ease
tonight. Moderate northwest breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough
to very rough seas will continue in the outer waters through
tonight before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into
Friday. Moderate to strong breezes are expected to continue
through the weekend with the strongest winds in the north.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel 
LONG TERM....Gunkel 
AVIATION...MKK 
MARINE...MKK

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jul 2 00:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service