FXUS66 KMTR 031130
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
330 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
Thursday through Saturday
- Light to moderate rain across North Bay tonight through
Tuesday; light rain across rest of Bay Area
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Today and Tonight )
Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low
pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to
the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night.
Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is
expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area
after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and
moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The
farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central
Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest
across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay
and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the
remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.
The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for
thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal
waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This
will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and
favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear
parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote
the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern
would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low
moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty
quick.
Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the
CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term
forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker
from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday
and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially
be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower
70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or
10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to
cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.
Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot
can happen between now and then, but early indications show the
storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of
November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and
above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much
more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region.
Be sure to follow for future updates.
Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another
round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through
Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR with a cold front approaching from the west.
Southerly winds will prevail and increase through the morning with
winds diminishing and veering by this evening. The main rain band
will reach terminals between 15Z and 17Z and spread northwest to
southeast with the best chances for post-frontal rain showers
between 22Z and 02Z. Low chance for thunderstorms at the
terminals with the best chances over the coastal waters.
Pessimistic ceiling forecast with ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/VFR
likely to prevail through this evening. The best opportunity for
these to mix out will be overnight as offshore flow prevails.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with light southeasterly flow. Winds
will increase and veer to become southerly ahead of and along the
cold front. The cold front will likely impact the terminal between
16Z and 19Z. There may be a brief break in between the two, but post-
frontal rain showers are expected this afternoon with the best
chances between 23Z and 01Z. There remains a low chance for
thunderstorms with the best chances farther north. Winds will
diminish and veer late this afternoon into this evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR and calm at SNS. Ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/VFR will
likely prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will prevail
at MRY and drainage winds will prevail at SNS. This afternoon, winds
will veer to become southwesterly with the best chance for rain
showers.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead
of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for
thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon,
especially north of Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become
northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas will prevail.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at
Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second)
northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves
and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may
linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach
Hazards Statement.
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST
Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 3 08:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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