Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 040508
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1008 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - Relatively weak cold front pushes south through our area today

 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds this afternoon and tonight

 - Notable cool down for the weekend into the beginning of next
   week remains on track

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 152 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

What a contrast from yesterday to today. Wall to wall sunshine
blankets the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. Stronger
N-S and dissipating front helped to get rid of the coastal
stratus. Increased sunshine and lack of natural A/C aided in
generally warmer temperatures this afternoon. Pretty impressive
24 hour trends across the North Bay with many Sonoma Co sites 
10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday.

For tonight and into Thursday...stratus way offshore will inch
closer with additional stratus developing along the coast. Not
expecting a full on marine layer push, but patchy stratus. Most
coverage will be along the SF Peninsula Coast and Monterey Bay
region. For Thursday, AM clouds will fade quickly leading to
another sunny day across the region. Temperatures will nudge
upwards by a few degrees. Far interior locations will have no
issues reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 152 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Thursday night into Friday as a little bit of rinse and repeat
with some patchy coastal marine layer clouds and afternoon
sunshine. Temperatures will be similar to Thursday: 60s to near 
80 coast/bays and 80s to mid 90s inland.

Still looking at a notable pattern change over the weekend with 
regards to temperatures. An upper level low/trough currently in 
the Gulf of AK will move through that PacNW and ultimately CA. 
Lower 500mb heights, deeper marine layer, colder 850mb temps will
yield a drop in temperatures across the board - roughly 5-10 deg 
from Friday to Saturday. A more subtle cooling trend will continue
into early next week. The trough will also bring more widespread 
night/morning clouds with coastal drizzle possible. Longer range 
ensemble guidance continues to suggest a few showers around the 
region Monday into Tuesday, but confidence is generally less than 
20% at this point. If it does happen it won't be much in the way 
of precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Stratus is returning along the coastline and will become more 
widespread overnight. Highest confidence in stratus reaching HAF, 
MRY, SNS, OAK, and SFO with lower confidence in it reaching STS and 
APC. Largely expecting MVFR to IFR CIGs with some potential for LIFR 
CIGs directly along the coastline. Winds will gradually ease 
overnight with breezy winds returning during the afternoon/evening. 
Moderate confidence on timing and placement of stratus tomorrow 
night with guidance not in a clear consensus as to either how 
extensive it will be and the general timing. For right now, highest 
confidence that stratus will return tomorrow night along the coast 
but it may potentially spread into the SF Bay as well.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty winds continue to ease overnight but are 
expected to remain moderate (10-15 knots) through late morning. 
Another round of gusty onshore winds is expected during the 
afternoon/evening but gusts peaks will peak lower than they did 
today with gusts to peak around 30 knots. A band of stratus was able 
to push through the San Bruno Gap this evening and bring IFR 
conditions to SFO. Moderate confidence that stratus and MVFR-IFR 
conditions will persist at SFO through the remainder of the night. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions tonight with some 
potential for LIFR conditions to develop during the early morning 
hours. Not anticipating fog to develop tonight but minor reductions 
in visibility are possible. Winds continue to ease overnight before 
moderate (10-15 knots) onshore winds return during the 
afternoon/evening. Stratus is likely to return again tomorrow 
evening but confidence on the exact timing is low. Guidance does not 
have a clear consensus for tomorrow night's stratus. The earliest 
likely return of stratus would be from 03-06Z so have started 
hedging towards that in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1007 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft continue through the weekend.
Near gale to force winds are expected along the coastal jet
regions and outer waters through this weekend. Rough seas between
10 to 15 feet continue through this weekend. Winds decrease and
seas abate heading into early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-SF Bay 
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 
     nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 3 22:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service