FXUS66 KMTR 262004
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1204 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
- Warmer and drier conditions for the next few days
- Cooler conditions this upcoming weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1203 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Now that the low clouds and areas of dense fog are improving,
expecting the warm up to persist across the region through the
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower
70s across much of the North Bay and San Francisco Bay Area with
interior areas of the Central Coast likely to warm into the upper
70s (cannot rule out a few of the warmest locations reaching or
exceeding 80 deg F).
Tonight, we are expecting less widespread coverage of fog as the
high pressure aloft continues to build and precipitable water values
(PWAT) of 1"-1.15" shift northward across the North Bay. This is
where we have the greatest potential for patchy fog early Friday
morning. In addition, mid-to-high level clouds will increase
throughout the night and linger into the upcoming weekend.
By Friday, forecast to be the warmest day across the region,
temperatures will likely warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the
North Bay, East Bay and San Francisco with the San Francisco
Bayshore warming and the rest of the region warming into the mid-to-
upper 70s. The greatest potential for areas to exceed 80 deg F is in
the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior portions of the Central Coast.
These temperatures are some 10-15 degrees F above average with the
higher terrain up to 20 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1203 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday, but only by a few degrees
ahead of an approaching mid/upper level cut off low. The low
pressure system will move into northern California and Oregon by
Sunday evening and into early Monday morning. This will bring
cooler, unsettled weather across the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Afternoon temperatures both Sunday and Monday look to trend closer
to seasonal averages. As far as precipitation goes, we are not
expecting much rain at all from this system as probabilities remain
very low for widespread rain. However, the North Bay and the coastal
ranges look to have the greatest potential for for receiving rain
from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Confidence beyond Tuesday lessens, yet shortwave ridging across the
region is expected to warm temperatures slightly. However,
troughiness looks to return for the latter half of the upcoming
week. However, widespread rainfall is not looking likely.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
Satellite shows fog and low cloud cover receding across the interior
but continuing to linger for locations directly along the Bay
Shoreline. Have pushed fog clearing times back to 19/20Z for OAK/SFO
and APC due to persistent low clouds in those regions. Most recent
observations are showing improving visibilities even as low clouds
prevail. Guidance is going all in on fog developing again tonight
but confidence is low to moderate. Current thinking is that a drier
airmass and incoming high clouds will keep surface temperatures
warmer/conditions drier, lowering the overall likelihood of fog
development tonight. If fog does develop the North Bay and East Bay
airports would be the most likely to see impacts to operations.
Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows low clouds persisting over SFO and
the SF Bay with some indications of low clouds receding across the
South and East Bays. Pushed clearing times back to 20Z for SFO and
19Z for OAK with VFR persisting through the afternoon/evening. The
20Z clearing time is on the more pessimistic side for SFO with
moderate to high confidence based on HRRR guidance and satellite
trends that we will see clearing between 19-20Z. Guidance indicates
some potential for fog again tonight but confidence is low due to
incoming high clouds and drier conditions.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Moderate onshore winds through this
afternoon with winds becoming lighter and more southerly overnight.
There is some potential for fog to develop overnight in the Salinas
Valley but confidence is low at this time.&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 842 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
A moderate northerly breeze with localized fresh gusts across the
southern waters prevails into the weekend before winds shift more
northwesterly. Low to moderate seas continue into next week.
Drizzle to light rain across the northernmost waters this
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 842 AM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
A moderate northerly breeze with localized fresh gusts across the
southern waters prevails into the weekend before winds shift more
northwesterly. Low to moderate seas continue into next week.
Drizzle to light rain across the northernmost waters this
weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 26 12:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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