FXUS66 KMTR 221017
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
217 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through
Wednesday
- Warming and drying trend kicks off Thursday with the return of
above normal temperatures
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Today and tonight)
A storm force low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast
and surface high pressure in the Intermountain West will continue to
tighten the pressure gradient. As a result, strong southerly winds
with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected along the Pacific Coast and
in the higher terrain. The attendant cold front to the
aforementioned low will be close enough to generate pre-frontal rain
showers. No adverse impacts are expected from them and they are
expected to remain confined to the North Bay with drizzle possible
for locations to the south. Temperatures will rebound to near
seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Monday through Saturday)
A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern
California Coast will bring tropical moisture along with it on
Monday. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of
500 kg/ms on Tuesday with PWAT values expected to break the daily
record. Even though the moisture content is expected to be rich, the
dynamics are expected to be poor. The reason is due to the pattern
that we are in with ridging to our southeast and troughing to our
northwest - this will force the low up and over us into the Pacific
Northwest. This leads to high confidence that the North Bay will
receive the highest rainfall accumulations. Southwest facing terrain
will have locally higher totals with the help of orographic lift and
a perpendicular moisture fetch from the tropics off to the
southwest. Adjacent valleys will experience the rain shadow effect.
Impacts wise, flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas
will be possible, especially in the North Bay. Ponding and slick
roadways will be likely. If rain rates get intense enough, shallow
landslides will be possible, especially in the North Bay. IVT values
will quickly decrease after peaking, with only light rainfall
expected Wednesday morning with the cold frontal passage. A warming
and drying trend commences on its heels with upper-level shortwave
ridging building across Baja California, resulting in temperatures
10 degrees above normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Airports report VFR. Widely scattered to broken clouds tonight and
Sunday, lighter winds tonight and Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Southerly to southeasterly wind 5 to 10
knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots
tonight and Sunday. Winds becoming variable to onshore 5 to 10
knots mid to late Sunday afternoon then light and variable to
light southeasterly Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 934 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Southerly winds and seas decrease Sunday. Rain chances increase
across northern waters tonight then spread farther south Monday
night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then
begin to ease by Wednesday of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 22 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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