FXUS66 KMTR 181810 AAA
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1110 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
- Steady or slightly warmer temperatures and more humid through
early next week
- The marine layer prevails through the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
No changes to the forecast this morning. Early morning stratus can
be seen rapidly retreating on satellite toward the immediate
coastline with sunny skies for the remainder of the day across the
interior. Stratus may linger along the immediate coast into the
afternoon with some locations possible not clearing entirely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
(Today and tonight)
Onshore winds continue with coastal stratus and patchy mist/fog
moving inland this morning. Strong high pressure remains located
over the interior west and an upper level trough remains located
over the eastern Pacific. High clouds may arrive here today from
monsoonal moisture located over the Southwest. Daytime highs today
will vary from the mid to upper 60s along the coast to the 70s
bayside to the 80s and 90s well inland. Tonight lows will cool to
the 50s except in the 60s in the hills and mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
Mid and high clouds will increase early next week as higher
precipitable water (pw) arrives with the eventual northward
moving remnants of Elida. Elida is currently a tropical storm ~
1100 miles south of Point Conception, but the storm is forecast
to weaken far before reaching higher latitudes. At this time most
model forecasts are forecasting minimal convective potential early
next week. Daytime highs are forecast to be near to slightly
above normal next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Improving flight categories are forecast at all terminals with
VFR anticipated at most terminals (except KHAF) in the next 1-2
hours. There is high confidence in this transpiring. MVFR to IFR
is anticipated to return this evening and into the pre-dawn hours
on Sunday. Confidence in the onset time is medium. Confidence in
MVFR at SJC and LVK is relatively lower, compared to other terminals,
but model consensus does favor at least a few hours of MVFR.
There are chances for LIFR ceilings/visibility at SNS and APC,
however, the depth of the marine layer may be sufficient to
mitigate this threat. Trends will be monitored as the potential is
non-zero. VFR will return late morning/early Sunday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR currently with MVFR returning this evening
due to a marine layer push. East to variable winds at the start of
the TAF period are anticipated to become more WNW'ly by 20Z today.
Gusts as great as 25 knots are advertised with medium to high
confidence. Confidence in the onset of MVFR cigs around 03Z Sunday
is medium and there could be impacts to the evening push. Some
model guidance advertises IFR ceilings, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. VFR is anticipated to
return mid-morning Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR this afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceilings
returning quickly, near or just after 00Z Sunday. There is some
potential for IFR visibility, however, the threat seems too low to
include in the TAF at this time. There's a chance that VFR may
return before the end of the current TAF period (17Z Sunday), but
for now will opt for simplicity given the range in the TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail over the
weekend, diminishing to become moderate by next week. Moderate
seas will also prevail. Moderate southerly swell will increase
from tropical cyclone activity across the eastern Pacific through
next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...Bain
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jul 18 12:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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