FXUS66 KMTR 142105
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
105 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Stay away from the beach!
- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with
breaking waves 25 to 35 feet
- Next round of rain and wind expected Sunday and into Monday
- Unsettled weather expected to continue into much of the
upcoming week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)
In wake of yesterday's frontal passage, isolated to scattered
rain showers are forecast to persist across the North Bay and
parts of the Bay Area through early evening as many of the CAMs
(Convection- Allowing Models) are indicating them to persist.
Otherwise, expecting a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day
with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages.
This is all ahead of our next cold front that is expected to move
across the North Bay between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday, the Bay Area
and the Santa Cruz Mountains between noon and 8 PM, and the
Central Coast between 4 PM and midnight Monday morning. There are
subtle differences in the timing of the front's arrival, resulting
in broader windows of expected arrival times. Southerly winds are
forecast to increase ahead of the front, although they are not
expected to be as strong as with the previous system. The
potential for thunderstorms is also lower.
Rain totals will range from 0.50"-1.0" across most of the Bay
Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, 1.0"-1.5" in
the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and 0.25"-0.50" across the
interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds
will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system
with southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay
Area, up to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher elevations.
In wake of the frontal passage, expecting winds to shift out of
the northwest and ease.
See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves
bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and
cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this
weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or
leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Monday through next Friday)
Another break in rainfall is expected late in the day on Monday
and into Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. By Tuesday morning,
there is the potential for cold weather products (Frost
Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) as morning lows are
forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern
Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere across the Bay Area and Central
Coast.
Yet another system comes into the region Tuesday
afternoon/evening and moves southward across the north Central
Coast through Wednesday and potentially lingering into early
Friday morning. It is still too early to speak about rainfall
amounts, yet there is increasing confidence (as of this writing)
of higher rainfall amounts compared to the Sunday/Monday system.
There also appears to be greater potential for thunderstorms and
stronger winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Best written by my
colleague: "The flooding concerns will increase through the next
few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull.
Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active
with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the
last week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
The improving trend over the last few hours will continue at all
terminals. There are a few lingering VCSH, but expect impacts to
be minimal. Expect VFR this afternoon. Tonight will see increasing
high clouds ahead of next system. This should limit fog
potential, but STS is a fog magnet and could have a 20-30% chc of
fog. Precip and lower CIGs will enter the N Bay around 16-18Z
Sunday and then spreading to SF Bay by 21Z.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through tomorrow afternoon. MVFR returns
toward end of TAF with more showers/rain.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 908 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly breezes will develop over the waters
as a cold front approaches from the north today. Fresh to strong
breezes will develop tonight and early Sunday as the cold front
moves through. Very hazardous marine conditions persist into
early next week with high west- northwest seas up to 30 feet.
Wave heights subside slightly on Sunday, but rebuild to high seas
with the frontal passage. Expect wave enhancement near harbor
entrances and bars due to shoaling. Widespread rain returns
Sunday morning and continues into Monday as moderate northwest
winds settle over the coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 930 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty
impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves
exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely
at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Saturday's peak swell
lingers through late morning before easing Saturday afternoon.
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new
round of very high swell arrives Monday. Will likely need at High
Surf Advisory for Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast.
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20%
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly
during high tide.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 14 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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