Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 091919
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1219 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will continue through early in the 
   week with afternoon temperatures peaking on Monday

 - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive 
   populations across the interior on Monday

 - Gradual cooling trend and potential unsettled weather from 
   midweek through late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

Low clouds have treated to the coast as of early this afternoon. 
Thus, as high pressure aloft continues to build, inland 
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday. 
Thus, afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 
80s to lower 90s (far inland areas) as high pressure continues to 
build over the region. The coast will remain cooler, generally in 
the upper 50s to 60s, thanks to onshore flow and the compressed 
marine layer.

Tonight, expecting low clouds to return to the coast and adjacent
inland valleys (similar to this morning). Again, there is the 
potential for mist or light drizzle again tonight into Sunday 
morning, yet widespread measurable rainfall is highly unlikely.

Sunday will feature similar temperatures as Saturday as the 
mid/upper level ridge shifts into southern California, Nevada, and
Arizona. Low clouds that do develop inland will quickly retreat 
to the coast Sunday by midmorning giving way to mostly sunny skies
inland. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1217 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Low clouds persist near the coast and will return inland Sunday 
night, however less widespread across the interior valleys. Monday
is still on track to be the warmest of the week as interior areas
reach Moderate HeatRisk as the high pressure strengthens over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures by Monday afternoon are forecast 
to be in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to low 
90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s near
coastal locations. The cooler conditions near the coast will be 
due to the marine layer not completely going away and continued 
onshore winds. 

Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however 
will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. There
is increasing confidence that a cut-off low pressure system will 
approach from the eastern Pacific by midweek, bring cooler and 
unsettled weather to the region for the remainder of the upcoming 
week. This will work to push the mid/upper level ridge across the 
Desert Southwest farther to the east. Not expecting much 
widespread measurable rainfall, however this pattern would be more
favorable for drizzle and/or light rain. There are still 
differences in model guidance about the strength and southern 
extent of the mid/upper level trough by midweek. Late in the week,
more zonal flow is forecast to develop over the region. Be sure 
to check back for the latest forecasts as we gain more reliable 
short range guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026

Stratus is receding from all terminals with the exception of HAF. 
Breezy onshore winds and VFR conditions are expected for much of the 
afternoon. Stratus is set to return again tonight with MVFR to IFR 
CIGs returning late this evening along the coast and overnight 
across the interior. Not anticipating fog to develop but temporary 
decreases in visibility are possible across the interior and along 
the coast. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with gusty onshore winds through this evening. 
Recent SFO obs show NW winds strengthening to around 15-20 knots 
with gusts up to 30 knots expected late this morning into the 
afternoon. Winds ease this evening with MVFR-IFR CIGs to return 
overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach....Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is in the process of clearing at 
MRY and SNS with clearing to occur within the next hour. VFR 
conditions prevail through the afternoon/early evening before IFR-
LIFR conditions return late evening through tomorrow morning. 
Moderate confidence that CIGs will initially start out IFR and lower 
to LIFR early tomorrow morning. There is some potential for 
visibilities to decrease after 12Z particularly at SNS. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 850 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes with occasional near gale force
gusts will continue through the remainder of the weekend along 
with moderate seas. Winds become more northerly on Sunday before 
gradually easing late Sunday into Monday. Gentle to moderate north
to northwest breezes are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with 
breezy conditions returning to the inner waters late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 9 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service