FXUS66 KMTR 112311
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through the forecast period
- Widespread minor HeatRisk through Saturday, areas of moderate
HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Sunny sky conditions prevail across the Bay Area and Central
Coast this afternoon as high pressure from the west builds into
the region. Coastal locations are a bit cooler and may not reach
their forecast maximum temperatures this afternoon as a shallow
marine layer and onshore flow remains in place at the coast.
However, inland areas are likely to reach into the low-to-upper
70s with a few warmer inland spots approaching 80 degrees F.
Overnight, mostly clear conditions will prevail as temperatures
drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.
For Thursday afternoon, the warming trend continues across the
interior with upper 70s to mid 80s as the high pressure aloft
continues to build eastward. Again, there is only moderate
confidence for coastal areas to reach their forecast maximum
temperatures. This is as onshore flow and a shallow marine layer
potentially limits the amount of daytime heating. Additionally,
high clouds are forecast to stream inland across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
A subtle upper level shortwave through will temporarily put a
pause on the warming trend Friday, yet temperatures will remain
5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. This will result in minor
HeatRisk across much of the region through Saturday when more
interior areas reach the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The high pressure will continue to build overhead the Bay Area
and Central Coast by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Monday and
Tuesday are likely to be the days in which we would issue Heat
Advisories as HeatRisk rise to moderate levels, especially across
the interior. However, we will continue to monitor this heat event
as it approaches.
From previous forecaster: "Even with the uncertainty, global
ensemble clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be
dealing with anomalously high heights through Thursday of next
week. To put this into context, we will be in record breaking
territory Sunday through Tuesday. This is not just with
temperatures (read the CLIMATE section below), but monthly records
for 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights which are both good
indicators for the type of air mass that we are dealing with.
Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on Saturday will give way
to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday. To mitigate
your risk: reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the
day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool place during the
heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the
day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air moving and
open windows at night."
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
VFR through the TAF period. Gentle to moderate northwest winds
continue through the evening hours, with winds becoming light and
variable overnight before moderate onshore flow resumes Thursday
afternoon. Beyond the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a
shallow marine layer to form late Thursday night into Friday
morning, with stratus impacts generally limited to the immediate
coast, although there is low to moderate confidence that stratus
makes it as far as OAK and SJC.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Currently observed
winds are light from the northeast, but have elected to keep the
prevailing forecast of moderate northwest winds for now as latest
high resolution model guidance suggests that they will form soon and
last through the evening. Winds become light after midnight before
breezy onshore flow returns Thursday afternoon into the evening.
Beyond the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a shallow marine
layer to form late Thursday night into Friday morning, with a low
confidence for stratus impacts at the terminal.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will continue through the evening hours, with moderate breezes at
SNS. Light winds develop overnight and persist through Thursday
morning, with onshore flow returning during the afternoon. Beyond
the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a shallow marine layer
to form late Thursday night into Friday morning, with low to
moderate confidence of stratus impacts to MRY.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Expect breezy to gusty north winds across the outer waters to
continue to cause rough seas. These winds will last through the
weekend with some of the inner waters being affected over the
weekend itself. Winds and seas ease into the next work week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 12th, 15th, 16th and 17th.
Location Mar 12 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17
Santa Rosa 83 in 2007 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996
San Rafael 81 in 2007 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972
Kentfield 83 in 2005 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914
Napa 86 in 2005 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914
Richmond 81 in 2005 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004
Livermore 84 in 1916 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972
San Francisco 79 in 2007 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914
SFO Airport 77 in 2007 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004
Redwood City 83 in 2005 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004
Half Moon Bay 75 in 2014 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004
Oakland Museum 80 in 2007 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004
San Jose 81 in 2007 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914
Salinas Airport 83 in 2007 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 11 16:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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