FXUS66 KMTR 141200
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
400 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with
breaking waves 25 to 35 feet
- Stay away from the beach!
- Scattered showers through the morning
- Periods of rain continue through the next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
The first of a series of frontal systems passed us by yesterday,
with post-frontal showers persisting across the Bay Area and Central
Coast through the morning. Skies will start out partly to mostly
cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloudiness through the
afternoon and evening hours as a second system arrives for Sunday
and Monday. Morning lows will fall in the lower to middle 40s for
the inland valleys, down into the middle to upper 30s for the
coolest interior spots, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for the
Bayshore and coastal regions. Highs today will remain on the cool
side with the inland valleys coming in within the middle 60s and the
Pacific coast within the lower 60s, while higher elevations areas
range in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will be gentle through the
day, turning southerly as the second system approaches, with some
gusty winds possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.
Very hazardous conditions are developing along the Pacific coast
with High Surf Warnings in effect through early Sunday morning due
to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents. Locally higher waves of 40 to 50
feet are possible at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. In
addition, coastal flooding concerns stemming from wave runup effects
are possible along the coastline. See the BEACHES section for more
details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean."
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
A second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of
Monday. Rain totals will range from a half an inch to one inch
across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia
range, one to one and a half inches in the Sonoma County coastal
ranges, and a quarter to half an inch across the interior portions
of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but
will not be as strong as Friday's system with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
possible across the SF Bay Area as the front approaches and moves
through. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into
Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on
Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at
this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will
bring, but the forecast trend is leaning towards a more potent
system coming into the region as model output suggests that this
storm will be stronger than the Sunday-Monday system and slow down
as it comes into the region. The flooding concerns will increase
through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams
reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern
remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal
averages into the last week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 359 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Scattered light rain showers continue through the early morning
hours. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle, with the
exception of LIFR fog at KSTS. A brief relief from the rain is
expected Saturday afternoon as southerly winds increase to around 10
kt ahead of an approaching cold front. Low confidence for fog to
redevelop at KSTS Saturday night due to increased high cloud cover
related to the frontal system. The mention of rain showers is likely
to be reintroduced in the following TAF issuance.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with some passing light rain showers. Dry
conditions prevail through the afternoon as high cloud cover
increases through the day. Winds remain south to southeast up to 10
kt. Occasional strong wind gusts between 15-20 kt are likely to
occur towards the end of the TAF period as the cold front nears our
coastline.
SFO Bridge Approach...Passing showers will result in brief
visibility reductions through the early morning hours. Otherwise,
similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered rain showers linger through mid-
morning at the latest. South to southeasterly winds shift onshore by
the afternoon into the evening. VFR conditions persist through the
day with increasing high cloud cover. Another round of rain
is expected tomorrow night through Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Scattered rain showers with a moderate northwesterly breeze
continues early this morning. Throughout the day, winds gradually
become fresh southerly breezes ahead of the approaching cold
front. Very hazardous marine conditions persist into early next
week with high west-northwest seas up to 25 feet. Wave heights
subside slightly on Sunday, but rebuild to high seas with the
frontal passage. Widespread rain returns Sunday morning and
continues into Monday as moderate northwest winds settle over the
coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series
of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific
through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW
swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal
conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday
with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in
addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker
waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored
breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate
somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives
Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast.
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20%
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly
during high tide.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 14 06:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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