FXUS66 KMTR 081917
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1117 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
- Patchy fog this morning, especially for North Bay Valleys.
- 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay tonight.
- Chances for soaking rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
again next weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
(Today through Monday)
Mostly clear skies are being observed across the Bay Area and the
Central Coast this morning. As temperatures cool and reduce dew
point depressions, fog is starting to develop being patchy in
nature from the East Bay Valleys down the Salinas Valley and more
areas of fog development in the North Bay Valleys. Widespread
dense fog is not expected, but webcams will be monitored through
the morning.
After daybreak, the added sunshine will help mix out any
lingering fog my mid morning. Partly cloudy skies will remain out
ahead of the next system to the North, but mostly sunny skies are
expected for areas south of the Bay Bridge. Temperatures will
increase into the mid 60s for the Bay Area (upper 50s to low 60s
along the coastline) and a chance for low 70s in southern Monterey
County. No major changes to the forecast regarding the rain
chances today. The shortwave trough is still expected to pass over
southern Oregon keeping the higher precipitation totals there and
in the northern California. The (20 to 40 percent) chance for
area in the forecast area will mainly be in the North Bay with
only a couple hundredths or rain possible late this afternoon and
evening. Any chance for a sprinkle south of the North Bay is less
than 10 percent.
Cooler air will filter in behind this wave. Temperatures tomorrow
morning will be a degree or two cooler than this morning, with
another chance for patchy fog. Similarly, high temperatures will
also be slightly cooler on Monday than today, but still remain a
couple degrees warmer than seasonable norms. No precipitation is
expected to start the work week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
(Monday Night through Saturday)
The next upper level low will drop southward over the ocean and
move over the California Coast Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. Model runs are trending wetter with this system
compared to earlier in the weekend. With precipitable water
amounts trending just under an inch, there is a good chance that
coastal areas could see about or just over a half an inch of rain,
with some coastal higher elevations around an inch. While there
will still be a difference in amounts with coastal areas seeing
more, traditional rain shadowed areas could still even receive
over a quarter of an inch of rain. Lastly, models are suggesting a
potent 120+kt 300 mb jet will company this upper level low
providing some synoptic lift enhancement. However, the Euro is
suggesting the core of the jet would arrive over the Central Coast
whereas the GFS is slightly more north toward the Bay Area. While
CAPE values are not overly robust, model sounding are showing a
strip of shallow, skinny area of instability. While confidence is
not high, there is a slight chance for thunder Tuesday night.
While the details may still be tweaked, it looks like a widespread
soaking rain is in store for the Bay Area and the Central Coast
midweek.
Cooler air advection with this upper level low will help provide
more seasonable normal temperatures across the area by the middle
of the week. Weak ridging is expected Thursday in to Friday for a
brief respite from the rain.
Models are showing fairly good agreement in another system
expected to move in over the weekend. While models are disagreeing
on the specific timing and strength of the system, many ensemble
members are suggesting that this system has a higher chance for a
widespread soaking rain than the midweek system. And with colder
air filtering in aloft, snow levels are expected to drop below
5,000 feet. How low they will go and whether or not the peaks of
some of the higher terrain could see a dusting remains uncertain.
But morning low temperatures this weekend could drop down below 40
degrees for some of the interior valley locations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
General Aviation Discussion... Currently, sites are either VFR or
LIFR due to lingering FG and stratus impacts from this morning over
the Bay area and North Bay. Satellite is showing signs of conditions
improving as FG and low cigs quickly lift and scatter. Winds
generally AOB 5kts and VRB directions. A weak FROPA will move
through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. The weak
boundary will reach the north bay around 06Z, brining MVFR/IFR cigs
with it and turning winds to the north/northeast. Only terminal with
chances of seeing brief sprinkles/VCSH will be STS. Coastal
terminals could see slightly stronger winds, however most sites will
keep light winds. Skies will remain mostly OVC AOA 10kft post
frontal. This will lead to higher chances for VFR conditions as
MVFR/IFR cigs move out. Low chances for FG/BR impacts due to higher
clouds and drier air settling in.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently 10SM visibility with VCFG immediately
east of the runways. Fog is expected to slowly scatter out through
20z, yielding to VFR conditions in the afternoon. SCt-BKN clouds
based 4-6 kft MSL return around 00-02z, followed by increasing
lower clouds based 1-3 kft MSL between 03-05z, yielding to
periods of MVFR ceilings through 08-10z Monday. VFR conditions
prevail thereafter as low clouds scatter out. Visibility during
this time will generally be greater than 5SM, with spotty drizzle
possible. West winds 5 to 10 knots through the San Bruno Gap in
the afternoon, turning light and South around 04z Mon, then
Northwest after midnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Fog and low clouds below 600 ft MSL are
currently dissipating from the approach path. VFR conditions until
MVFR stratus returns to the area this evening and tonight through
08-10z Monday.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Fog and low clouds are quickly
diminishing in coverage as of 19z with full VFR at both sites by
20z. Cloud bases 4-6 kft return to KOAK around 23-01z Mon, then
to KSJC around 02-04z Mon, with periods of MVFR ceilings between
03-10z at KOAK and between 05-14z at KSJC. Clouds scatter out
thereafter, yielding to VFR prevailing Monday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions with light and diurnal
driven winds currently. Times of SCT-BKN at 1 to 2kft beginning
around 00Z as the off shore stratus moves inland ahead of
approaching FROPA. The weak boundary will continue MVFR cigs
through the remainder of the period for MRY, and ~10Z for SNS.
Winds become west to northwest after 10Z but remain light.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 0859 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
A cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and
bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today.
Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today
into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west
bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through
Wednesday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to
9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...Delizio/Westerink
MARINE...Camden
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 8 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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