FXUS66 KMTR 081152
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
352 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the
upcoming week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Tonight through Monday)
A cold front is forecast to move onshore early Sunday morning,
mainly impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. As
it moves on land, it will dissipate rather quickly, therefore no
rain is expected in our area with this system. Ahead of the front
however, high and low cloud cover has increased across the Bay Area
and Central Coast. While low clouds are forecast to burn off by
Sunday morning, high clouds will remain. Weak cold air advection
along with an enhanced moisture flux (from the low clouds) will be
sufficient to slightly decrease temperatures Sunday through Monday
along the coast and across the Bay Area. Despite this cooling,
maximum temperatures remain 5-10 deg F above normal at the
aforementioned locations. The interior South Bay and Central Coast
valleys are likely to experience temperatures 10-15 deg F above
normal through Monday.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal
Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
High pressure builds over the region as zonal to weak ridging
reforms in the wake of Sunday's frontal passage. This pattern will
support another round of gentle offshore flow beginning Monday
night. As a result, above normal temperatures persist through
Wednesday.
Thursday is roughly when we can expect conditions to begin to
change. A deep mid to upper level trough approaches our coast
allowing winds to shift south-southwesterly. This wind direction may
assist in drawing in moisture from the Eastern Pacific, though
confidence remains low on exactly how much transport will occur.
Both the ensemble ECMWF and GFS members advertise precipitable water
values around the 75th percentile late next week with a *very* low,
non-zero chance for thunderstorm activity. The potential for rain
enters the chat as early as Friday and is likely to persist into the
weekend. As we get closer to the event, the exact details on the
system's trajectory and expected rainfall amounts will be refined.
In the meantime, it is advised to begin preparations for the winter
season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 338 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Definitely a mixed bag overnight and early this morning as a weak
front approaches from the N. Patchy stratus developed early in
the night and these patches have be transient with some terminals
remaining cloudy and others SCT out. Additionally, patchy dense
fog continues to impact the N Bay with LIFR. Needless to say, low
conf forecast this morning. Regardless, any impacts to flight CAT
will improve mid morning 16-17Z. Expect VFR this afternoon and
early tonight.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR cigs have given way to VFR. Latest SAT/CAM
trends shows VFR should hold into the AM. VFR this afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Far SE are of approach has the best chc at
shallow CIGS.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR as earlier CIGs cleared. Some
additional CIG develop is poss at SNS this AM. VFR this afternoon
with MVFR CIGs returning late tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Dynamic sea state will continue through much of the forecast
period with wind and elevated swells. Moderate to fresh northerly
breezes continue over the coastal waters through early next week.
Rough to very rough seas will create hazardous conditions for
small craft over the coastal waters. Seas begin to subside
Tuesday and winds will back through the day Wednesday to become
southerly.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 350 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice.
However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach
Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf
zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As
such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents
will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at
exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring
tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than
normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to
avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There
may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range
forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next
week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday
11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5
ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft
above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal
(7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up
to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay,
respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 8 04:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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