FXUS66 KMTR 152006
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1206 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
- Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific
coast beaches through late this evening
- Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the weekend
- Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1204 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Lingering patchy fog continues as of early this afternoon across
the valleys of Sonoma County, West Delta, and portions of the East
Bay Valleys but is forecast to mix out here shortly. However,
because of this, temperatures in the North Bay and East Bay
valleys remain relatively cool and are not likely to reach their
forecasted high temperatures this afternoon. However, the Central
Coast remains warm where temperatures are likely to reach the
lower 70s to upper 70s in the higher train. In these areas,
HeatRisk is low for today as cool overnight temperatures forecast
tonight will limit moderate levels.
Tonight, expecting slightly warmer temperatures compared to
previous nights, but by just a few degrees. There remains moderate
probability for patchy to areas of dense fog across the North Bay
Valleys, West Delta, and East Bay Valleys. Additionally, there
may be fog development off of the Santa Cruz and Monterey ci
coastlines. Temperatures are largely forecast to be in the upper
30s to lower 40s in much of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay
valleys, and southern Salinas Valley. Elsewhere, low temperatures
tonight and into early Friday morning look to be between the mid-
to-upper 40s. In the higher elevations above 1,000 ft,
temperatures are likely to be warmer as offshore flow persist. In
these areas, look for upper 50s to mid 60s for overnight lows.
For Friday, we are expecting similar conditions as today, yet a
cool down by generally 2-4 degrees. However, similar to today,
temperatures may not warm as much as currently forecast in areas
where fog lingers into late morning or even early afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
There hasn't been much in the way of changes in the mid to long
term forecast. The ridge of high pressure narrows into the
weekend, and allows for some slight cooling in high temps, while
morning lows don't really see much movement. The orientation of
the ridge could allow for a very weak onshore flow at the
immediate coast in the late weekend. That, along with a slight
easing of pressure shows signs for a return of a very shallow
marine layer by Sunday. The marine layer and a feed of Tule Fog
could offer some foggy mornings Sunday and into the next work
week. However, the lingering dry conditions along with some
thermal interference from passing high clouds could limit fog
development. So that'll be something that will need finer tuning
as the higher resolution models come into range.
The trend of cooling daytime temperatures looks to continue
through the next work week, with overnight lows only seeing slight
variations.
In the long, long-term forecast, models are coming to better
agreement on the breaking of our current ridge pattern toward the
end of the next work week. A strong trough deepens from the north,
with its axis falling well to our east, but it looks to be enough
to flatten the ridge over the West Coast. Some model outputs
place a weak low or a cold front through the area during this
flattening, which could bring some rain. It won't be heavy rain by
any means according to these models, but other models are placing
the weak low much farther inland, which could mean stronger
offshore winds and increased dry conditions. This all to say that
while the longer term forecast starts to show a slightly clearer
picture, there can still be some interesting variations that could
lead to very different weather. So be sure to keep checking as
more updates roll in!
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Satellite imagery this morning is fascinating as tule fog
has funneled through the Delta an snuck south towards livermore as
well as across the Bay and towards Novato and Petaluma. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions prevail and should hold throughout the day. KLVK
should improve over the next hour or two, with some uncertainty on
what the south Sonoma valley fog will do. Tonight, valley fog
returns for the North Bay terminals with KSTS dropping to LIFR and
KAPC likely falling to MVFR, perhaps IFR at times. Easterly flow
should keep the other sites clear, though we'll be keeping an eye on
the tule fog.
Vicinity of SFO...Offshore winds will prevail today, with VFR
conditions holding through the forecast period. Given offshore flow
continues to hold, opted to avoid adding any reduced visibility
since we remained in VFR overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and primarily offshore flow
will be found across the region. Diurnal influences should take
hold, a bring light onshore wind for a period this afternoon for
KMRY and KSNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1011 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will veer through the morning
to become offshore through Saturday before northerly winds return
Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the
exception of the northwestern portion of the waters where rough
seas are expected today.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Hazardous beach conditions continue at all Pacific Coast beaches
today. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and
large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves
that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected,
overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the
ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over
or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold
water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures
hovering around 55 degrees. Remain out of the water, stay off of
waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and
never turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jan 15 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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