FXUS66 KMTR 150449
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
949 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
- Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend
- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend
- Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across
the interior with low humidities and strong gusts
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Clear skies and warm temperatures have set up across the region as
mild ridging comes over the state. High temperatures today and
Friday range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s across the inland
valleys, perhaps reaching the upper 80s in the warmest spots, the
upper 60s to the upper 70s along the Bays, and the upper 50s to
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy northwest winds will
develop at the coast, along ridgelines, and through gaps and passes
with gusts up to around 25 mph, but this will be relatively mild
compared to the forecast for the next few days.
Friday will mark the start of a developing inside slider as an upper
level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and starts to sharpen
the pressure gradient across northern California. Northwest winds
will strengthen across the region leading to gusts reaching 35 to 45
mph along the coast, across the ridgelines, and through favored gaps
and passes including the northern Salinas Valley; the rest of the
forecast area should expect to see gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph.
While favored coastal locations and ridgelines may reach Wind
Advisory criteria (gusts of 45 mph or above), I'm not seeing gusts
these strong over a wide enough region to issue one at this time.
Still, these strong winds could still loosen branches and lead to
difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles and isolated
power outages, especially when combined with hazardous wind-driven
waves and blowing sand at the beach and elevated fire danger across
the interior. These winds will contribute to hazardous beach
conditions, notably large wind-driven waves and blowing sand. A
Beach Hazards Statement has just been issued from Friday through
Monday due to these risks. See the BEACHES and FIRE WEATHER sections
for more details.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
The inside slider begins in earnest over the weekend as the upper
level trough stalls out over eastern Washington on Saturday before
dipping into the Great Basin on Sunday. This turns the upper level
flow from a more zonal (west to east) pattern into a more meridional
(north to south) pattern, and although the upper level flow remains
just to the west of due north, it will be enough to cause the winds
to turn more to the north and for humidities to dip, especially in
the interior regions where daytime relative humidity values from 10
to 25% are possible on Sunday.
The track of the low will also maintain the tight pressure gradient
over central California and maintain strong gusts over the region.
In addition, there is the potential for the mixing down of stronger
gusts across the coastal regions over the weekend as a coastal jet
sets up. The strongest gusts are expected to begin Saturday through
Monday morning, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible at the coast,
along the interior ridgelines of the North and East Bay, and through
the northern Salinas Valley and Altamont Pass; these strong gusts
could result in isolated downed trees. Can't rule out a Wind
Advisory for the coastal regions and the adjacent mountains for the
weekend. By Monday afternoon, the upper level low will weaken and
pull away into the northern Rockies, allowing the pressure gradient
to slacken and a developing upper level ridge over the eastern
Pacific to begin influencing the weather pattern.
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will back into the 70s to lower
80s in the inland valleys before the warming trend resumes early
next week. With California sitting between the building ridge and
the lingering trough, high temperatures across the region are still
a little uncertain. After collaboration with our neighbors and
national centers, the raw NBM output, which continues to run a
little warm, was tamped down by as much as 3 to 5 degrees,
especially along the coastal regions. The general pattern will be
for highs in the 80s to the lower 90s inland, the middle 70s to the
middle 80s near the bays, and the 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific
coast. Towards and after the end of the 7-day outlook, the
uncertainty ramps up as the interaction between the ridge over the
Pacific and any troughing over the Rockies becomes more variable
within the ensemble space. As noted yesterday around this time, the
inland valleys could see highs varying by around 5 or 10 degrees
around the current forecasts, while coastal and bayshore regions
could see drastically different changes in the outlook, especially
if a marine layer influence returns to more of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for
all terminals other than the Monterey Bay sites and KHAF. Gusty
onshore flow will ease somewhat overnight for coastal sites and
bayshore terminals, then increase again by late Friday morning
through the afternoon and evening hours.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Gusty winds will ease overnight then begin to increase
again late Friday morning through the remainder of the forecast
period with gusts up to 35kts at times.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar timing for increase in gusty winds
Friday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to persist
through the overnight at KMRY with a slight chance of LIFR by
sunrise and clearing out by late morning Friday. Low confidence
on KSNS developing MVFR cigs until sunrise and persisting through
mid-morning Friday. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period once stratus cigs lift, with gusty onshore flow
through the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 928 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Gale-force northwest gusts will be widespread by Friday morning,
continuing to increase through the weekend. A coastal jet will
result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm-force gusts
possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be between 12
to 19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will steadily
diminish into the beginning of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore
winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak
gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40 to 50 mph along
the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines.
Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the
interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a
modest offshore flow continues into the work week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches
along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to
strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously
strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming,
boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking
waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical
injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong
along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and
increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by
reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your
back on the ocean.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Monday
morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for
Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt
Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 15 00:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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