Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 292352
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
351 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

 - Warm, above normal temperatures continue into next week

 - Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore for the San
   Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay at high tide
   through Sunday

 - Hazardous beach conditions due to increased risk of sneaker
   waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026
(This evening through Friday)

Pleasant weather continues with high temperatures in the 60s to low 
70s across the region. Winds remain light and offshore as upper 
level ridging and surface high pressure persist. There is the 
potential for fog overnight tonight into tomorrow morning for the 
usual suspects (North Bay Valleys and East Bay Valleys). Locations 
along the Delta and areas in the far eastern East Bay (vicinity of 
Byron) will be the most likely to experience locally dense fog 
tonight (visibilities less than 1/4SM). A Coastal Flood Advisory is 
in effect for the SF Bay Shoreline and Monterey Bay Shoreline 
through noon on Sunday. Coastal flooding is expected to be minor and 
much less widespread compared to what occurred earlier in the month. 
Coastal flooding looks to peak on Saturday with up to 1.4 ft of 
inundation above ground level expected. This forecast accounts for 
up to 0.4 ft of storm surge due to incoming swell from a low 
pressure system to our northwest in the vicinity of the Gulf of 
Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Not too much changes in the forecast as we head into Saturday, upper 
level ridging continues with surface temperatures warming into the 
60s to low 70s across the interior. Temperatures are running on 
average 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As noted by the previous 
forecaster, SJC is set to tie its daily high temperature record on 
Saturday. It is currently forecast to reach a high of 71 degrees 
which ties the record high temperature from 2015. The warmest 
temperatures will be across the South Bay and Central Coast. The 
Salinas Airport gets within 5 degrees of its daily high temperature 
but is currently forecast to stay below it (forecast: 74; record 
high: 79 in 1976). Southern most portions of the Salinas Valley 
(King City extending south) are forecast to see temperatures peak 
around 75/76 degrees. Temperatures cool down into the 60s 
Sunday/Monday as a shortwave trough moves into Northern California. 
Models have shifted this trough northward over the past few days 
with rain chances severely diminishing across the North Bay. As it 
stands now, only 2 out of 50 ECMWF ensemble members show a trace of 
precipitation at the Santa Rosa Airport for Sunday into Monday. 
Cannot fully rule out some drizzle in the far northern coastal 
mountains in Sonoma County but this will not be particularly 
widespread and is not expected to accumulate. We return to our 
status quo (upper level ridging) by Tuesday with above normal high 
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s expected through the 
remainder of the long term. There are signs that upper level 
troughing and rain could return by mid-February but the ECWMF and 
GFS are not in agreement on timing or strength of the trough. This 
is a ways out but could be something to watch for in the future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 351 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

A strong 500 mb high pressure ridge will be located over the 
forecast area tonight through Friday. It's a moderate to high 
confidence VFR forecast tonight through Friday with exception of 
patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing tonight and Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light N-NE wind.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots early
this evening then becoming E-SE wind 5 to 15 knots tonight and 
Friday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots Friday afternoon and 
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes continue through Friday
before winds veer and become southerly over the weekend. Rough
seas are expected through early Friday morning across the coastal
waters, diminishing to moderate during the day on Friday and
Saturday before rough seas return Sunday and Monday as another
moderate to long period swell arrives along the coastline.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 925 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches 
through Friday morning. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Also, a Coastal Flood Advisory 
has been issued from today through Sunday for high tides up to 1.4
ft above normal (on Saturday at 9:30 AM at the San Francisco tidal
gauge). This will mainly impact coastal areas adjacent to the San
Fransico, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. Flooding of lots, parks, 
and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, 
and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jan 29 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service