Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 022343
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
443 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - Areas of Dense Fog are expected through mid-morning, especially
   for the Central Coast

 - Similar temperatures each day through the remainder of the work
   week

 - Notable cool down for the weekend into the beginning of next
   week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 157 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

It's only the second day into June and we're seeing classic June
Gloom conditions across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Solid
intrusion of morning stratus rolled back to the coast this
afternoon. Despite some afternoon sunshine, inland areas that felt
the marine influence this morning are still struggling to rebound
temp wise. Did an afternoon forecast update to nudge temps down 
for inland valleys. Coastal areas on the other hand are right on 
track with cool and lingering clouds.

While we'll still seem a marine layer intrusion, especially early
tonight, the foot print for stratus Wednesday AM will be different
than what we saw this morning. A weak/dry cold front will
approach from the north overnight. As such, we'll see N-S 
pressure gradient and winds increase. Therefore, the marine layer 
will be more broken up Wednesday AM. Better mixing will also lead 
to little to no dense fog.

Temperatures on Wednesday will warm up a little bit over Tuesday's
temps, but still be tempered by onshore flow and some marine
layer influence. 60s/70s coast and bays with 80s/mid 90s interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 157 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Marine layer still lingers, but warming airmass overhead will
continue a subtle warming trend of an additional 3-5 degrees.

A notable shift in the longwave pattern will bring a marked 
change with regards to our sensible weather for the rest of the 
Long Term. Friday will be a transition day with temperatures and 
overall weather with moderating conditions. Saturday will be a 
drop in temperatures across the region. A deep upper low for this 
time of year will swing into the PacNW. The associated trough will
move into CA Friday into Saturday. Overall troughing pattern will
persist through the rest of the forecast period. Night/Morning 
marine layer will reform with seasonably cool temps. Occasional 
drizzle will be possible along the immediate. In fact, longer 
range ensembles are hinting as a few showers by next Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

More widespread MVFR-IFR conditions are expected tonight with most 
sites (excluding SJC and LVK) to see overcast conditions. IFR-LIFR 
conditions are expected along the coast. Decreases to 4-5SM 
visibilities are expected overnight but confidence is low that fog 
will develop. If fog does develop, it would be along the coast (MRY 
and SNS) with a much lower chance across the interior. Gusty onshore 
winds return during the afternoon/evening with widespread gusts to 
around 25-30 knots. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Ensemble guidance 
shows stratus pushing through the Golden Gate gap but largely 
staying away from SFO. The stratus looks to form a "donut hole" 
around the airport which should keep it VFR tonight. Winds ease 
slightly overnight before gusts strengthen tomorrow 
afternoon/evening. Gusts to around 30 knots are expected with some 
potential for gusts up to 35 knots during the late afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Overcast conditions with MVFR-IFR ceilings are 
expected across the Bay tonight while VFR conditions prevail at SFO. 
CIGs clear by late morning with gusty winds expected during the day.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is pushing inland on satellite with 
IFR to LIFR ceilings expected overnight. Visibilities drop to 2-3SM 
during the early morning with a low potential for fog to develop. 
Confidence is lower that fog will develop tonight given a deeper 
marine layer and lower probabilistic chances. Winds ease overnight 
before gustier onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening. 
Gusts between 20 to 25 knots are expected at MRY and SNS tomorrow.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Stronger northwest winds are arriving to the northern waters,
bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. These winds will
spread south, leading to widespread small craft advisories into
the night. Winds will continue to build into Wednesday resulting
in gale force gusts across the northern outer waters and along the
coastal jet regions. Moderate seas will prevail through Wednesday
before building to become rough Thursday into the weekend. Winds
look to finally ease into the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 2 18:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service