FXUS66 KMTR 231903
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1203 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Gusty offshore flow across the North Bay Interior Mountains
this evening through Saturday morning
- Below normal temperatures today, increasing to near normal for
the weekend
- Coastal flooding due astronomical high tides and thermal
expansion this weekend through at least the middle of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
Mostly clear sky conditions are expected by this afternoon across
all of the Bay Area and north Central Coast as high pressure over
the eastern Pacific builds and shifts eastward. However, the
presence of the exiting trough will keep conditions slightly below
seasonal averages. As a separate mid/upper level cut-off low moves
into the northern portion of the Intermountain West, we will have a
brief period of moderate offshore winds (locally strong in the
highest peaks) across the North Bay Interior Mountains with
northeasterly gusts to around 30-40 MPH late this evening and into
Saturday morning. Again, the highest peaks have the potential to
exceed 50 MPH. Elsewhere across the Bay Area, offshore winds will be
weaker but still exist in elevations generally above 1,000 feet.
Given the offshore flow aloft over much of the Bay Area, have lower
confidence of fog development again overnight. That said, cannot
rule out fog again over the North Bay Interior Valleys just before
sunrise Saturday morning.
Saturday and Sunday afternoon maximum forecast temperatures will
warm to near to slightly above seasonal averages as high pressure
continues to build over the eastern Pacific. However, minor coastal
flooding looks to return to bayshore locations along the San Pablo
Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Monterey Bay on Saturday and then low-
lying areas along the Pacific Coast Monday during and around times
of peak high tide. This is due to thermal expansion of the warm
waters generated by El Nino and astronomical high tides through at
least the middle of next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Temperatures drop to slightly below normal for much of next week as
a series of troughs impact the Pacific Northwest. Thus, we are not
expecting any precipitation until late in the week and into the
following weekend (October 30th-November 1st). This is the time
frame in which the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 Day
Outlooks give the Bay Area and north Central Coast a 50-60%
probability of above normal precipitation which is more typical for
a strong El Nino year as the Pacific jet stream drops farther south
over southern California. Be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest
forecast information from trusted sources.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Satellite imagery is messy this morning, depicting a mix of clear
skies but also MVFR to VFR ceilings across the region. You can see
some drier air that worked its way through, eroding stratus as it
moves south but behind it clouds sink in from the northeast. Models
aren't capturing this that well so opted to keep the general trends
from the prior forecast and with VFR conditions by 20-21Z for most
sites. Then skies will continue to clear as drier air continues to
work into the region, leaving us with VFR conditions into tomorrow
morning. There could be an exception for patchy fog in the North Bay
Valleys around sunrise tomorrow given lingering moisture and the
potential for radiational fog. But it'll have to compete against
the drier air and weak offshore flow, so opted to keep conditions
clear.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected at SFO; however, there
could be a couple of more hours of MVFR cigs trying to sneak their
way through as some clouds move in from the northeast. SKies should
clear during the late afternoon or early evening hours and be
accompanied with breezy onshore winds. Overnight and into Saturday
morning, light offshore winds are expected with onshore flow
returning mid to late Saturday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The morning stratus has eroded with
stratocu blossoming behind it. This will leave us right around or
just above VFR cigs for the next couple of hours, with skies
clearing later this afternoon and into the evening. Overnight, light
offshore winds develop keeping us VFR for through Saturday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 915 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Conditions will continue to dry out this morning and be
accompanied with fresh to locally strong northerly winds. Near
gale force to gale force gusts possible across the far northern
outer waters, with strong gusts south of Pigeon Point. Winds will
gradually decrease through the day leading to moderate northerly
breeze by Saturday morning and then prevailing through the
upcoming week. Rough seas are expected today and tomorrow across
the outer waters with wave heights peaking between 10 to 13 feet.
Moderate seas prevail Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Oct 23 12:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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