FXUS66 KMTR 101104
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
404 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today
- Extended period of above normal temperatures sets in on
Wednesday
- Widespread Minor HeatRisk tomorrow through Saturday, with
increasing areas of Moderate HeatRisk Sunday into the beginning
of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 243 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
(Today and tonight)
Today will be the coolest day through the extended forecast. The
EPAC ridge that will dominate our pattern for the next week and
beyond will continue to build today. However, a broad trough axis
extending from the Great Basin into NorCal interacting with the
building ridge will produce gradient forcing for the gusty northwest
winds along the coast, especially for the North Bay and Bay Area
coastlines, along with a tight thermal H85 gradient across
NorCal. Temperatures along the coast will be slightly below normal
with gusty northwest winds this afternoon. High temperatures
inland will run about 5 degrees above normal for most locations
with occasionally breezy northwest winds. While surface winds ease
this evening, H85 flow will begin to increase and become offshore
once again. With light and variable surface winds tonight into
Wednesday morning, along with the developing offshore boundary
level flow producing mostly clear skies, more efficient
radiational cooling will result in lows in the 40s and even upper
30s for higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 243 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
By Wednesday afternoon, the warming trend through the remainder of
the extended forecast will be in full swing. Highs will be in the
70s for a majority of our area, some 60s along the coast and low 80s
in the southern Salinas Valley. We'll see more widespread 80s for
the remainder of the work week into the weekend with 90s in the
southern Salinas Valley by Sunday, expanding in area by the
beginning of next week. We'll see widespread Minor HeatRisk set in
Wednesday and persist through Saturday with increasing areas of
Moderate HeatRisk Sunday and Monday. The warm temperatures will
persist through much of next week. Deterministic guidance is
beginning to pick up on some offshore troughing as the impressive
dome of high pressure meanders east well beyond the current forecast
range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. High confidence
that VFR will prevail by this afternoon. Onshore winds will increase
through the morning, peaking this afternoon and evening with gusty
conditions at HAF, OAK, and SFO. High clouds will continue to stream
in from the north throughout the day.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High (80%)
confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Westerly
winds will increase through the morning, peaking and becoming
gusty this afternoon and evening. Low probability for gusts to
reach 35 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. High confidence that VFR
will prevail by this afternoon. Diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Hazardous conditions from strong to near gale force northerly
breezes are expected through tonight. Frequent gale force gusts
are expected across the outer waters and along the coastal jet
region of Point Reyes. As a result, very rough seas will build in
the outer waters. Conditions will slightly improve beginning
Wednesday, but rough seas and fresh to strong northerly breezes
will keep hazardous conditions around through the week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 10 08:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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