FXUS66 KMTR 072350
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
350 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the
upcoming week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s near
the coast with gradual warming as you move inland away from the
coast. Meanwhile, the interior valleys are forecast to reach into
the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior Central Coast as
sunny skies prevail. This is some 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle
to moderate offshore flow will persist through the night in the
higher elevations before diminishing by Sunday afternoon. All of
this is ahead of a cold front that is forecast to push inland
across Northern California by Sunday morning and potentially
making its way into the North Bay by the afternoon and early
evening hours. However, as the front weakens, no measurable
rainfall is expected across the North Bay. Temperatures on Sunday
will be similar to those this afternoon, yet the incoming front
passing to our north may result in increased cloud cover across
the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for
safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement
and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Not much has changed in the extended forecast. High pressure will
rebuild in wake of the exiting trough across the Pacific
Northwest from Tuesday through Thursday, maintaining afternoon
temperatures up to 10-15 deg F above early-November climatological
norms by Wednesday. Mid-to-upper level troughing remains forecast
to deepen as it approaches the West Coast as early as Thursday.
This is being depicted by ensemble models and clusters late next
week and into the following weekend. However, their remains a
great deal of uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system
and its available moisture source. For now, enjoy the warm
weather that is forecast to persist through midweek, just be
mindful of the coastal hazards! Also, check back for next week's
rain chances and their impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Currently VFR with stratus offshore. The loss of the offshore
surface pressure gradient has brought the return of onshore flow
leading to cooler and more humid conditions. Moderate to high
confidence in sub-VFR conditions returning to all terminals tonight,
likely a combination of advection and radiation fog/stratus.
Conditions will likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR and begin to
develop between 08Z and 12Z with conditions improving by 16Z.
Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Moderate
confidence on a ceiling developing at the terminal tonight, it'll
likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. If the marine layer remains
compressed (less than 1,000 feet), then it won't be able to make it
through the San Bruno Gap. Thus, it'll likely be a late arrival time
(09Z or later) as it'll have to take the long way around the bay.
Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely see
clouds below FL070 develop as soon as 08Z with conditions improving
as soon as 16Z. There is a greater chance for ceilings at or below
FL070 at OAK and SJC than there is at SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in MVFR
ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. Limiting factor will
likely be drainage flow as it will bring in drier air and keep
stratus out over the Monterey Bay. Diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Northwest breezes will be fresh to moderate with locally stronger
breezes south of Point Sur through the weekend. Expect rough to
very rough seas to persist into next week along with mixed long
period swells leading to hazardous conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and
have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will
remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such,
large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be
possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced
swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the
ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but
longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast
late next week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday
11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5
ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft
above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal
(7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up
to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay,
respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 16:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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