FXUS66 KMTR 151625
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
825 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
- Today offers the warmest temperatures of the forecast, with
highs slowly cooling over the weekend
- Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys
- Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific
coast beaches
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
We are seeing pockets to areas of dense fog across the region this
morning; especially in the valleys of Sonoma and Marin counties, the
East Bay Valleys, and the West Delta. After the fog dissipates by
mid-to-late morning, temperatures will warm into the low-to-
upper 60s across much of the Bay Area while the North Bay has
between 50-70% chance of reaching 70 degrees F. Meanwhile, the
warmest conditions will be across the Central Coast with afternoon
where temperatures have a high probability (70-100%) of exceeding
70 degrees F as weak offshore flow prevails in the higher
terrain. That said, no updates are anticipated at this time to the
ongoing forecast.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
(Today and tonight)
Fairly similar conditions to the previous night so far with slightly
more consistent fog in the delta as well as in the North Bay
Valleys. The fog around the Russian River in Sonoma Co looks to be
more uniform than the previous night, and is more defined on
satellite. This could hint at the fog lasting longer into the
morning than the last few days.
After the fog clears, the region is set for another sunny day with
this afternoon offering the warmest temperatures in the forecast.
Highs around the Bay Area will mostly be in the 60s with a few 70s
possible in the more interior areas. The Santa Cruz mts and southern
Santa Clara Valley will see more 70-75 degree temps, but Monterey
and San Benito counties will see widespread 70s. There is the
potential for a few interior areas in southern Monterey Co to break
80 this afternoon. Temperatures will be quick to cool after sunset
with the mostly dry airmass allowing for the warmest (and driest)
valleys this afternoon to fall back into the mid to low 40s
overnight. Some of the mountains will experience a weak thermal
belt, leading to lows in the mid 50s among the peaks.
There wasn't much to tune in the overnight forecast package, aside
from adjusting the mid to higher terrain winds. The national blend
seems to be struggling with keeping up with some of those higher
elevation breezes, so some of the local WRF and the NAM12 was added
to the mix. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
There hasn't been much in the way of changes in the mid to long term
forecast. The ridge of high pressure narrows into the weekend, and
allows for some slight cooling in high temps, while morning lows
don't really see much movement. The orientation of the ridge could
allow for a very weak onshore flow at the immediate coast in the
late weekend. That, along with a slight easing of pressure shows
signs for a return of a very shallow marine layer by Sunday. The
marine layer and a feed of Tule Fog could offer some foggy mornings
Sunday and into the next work week. However, the lingering dry
conditions along with some thermal interference from passing high
clouds could limit fog development. So that'll be something that
will need finer tuning as the higher resolution models come into
range.
The trend of cooling daytime temperatures looks to continue through
the next work week, with overnight lows only seeing slight
variations.
In the long, long-term forecast, models are coming to better
agreement on the breaking of our current ridge pattern toward the
end of the next work week. A strong trough deepens from the north,
with its axis falling well to our east, but it looks to be enough to
flatten the ridge over the west coast. Some model outputs place a
weak low or a cold front through the area during this flattening,
which could bring some rain. It won't be heavy rain by any means
according to these models, but other models are placing the weak low
much farther inland, which could mean stronger offshore winds and
increased dry conditions. This all to say that while the longer term
forecast starts to show a slightly clearer picture, there can still
be some interesting variations that could lead to very different
weather. So be sure to keep checking as more updates roll in!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Tule fog from
the Central Valley has intruded through the Delta and is encroaching
the East Bay. Bay Area terminals (namely APC, LVK, and OAK) will be
threatened by this. Even if the dense fog does not come to fruition,
reduced visibilities can be expected and have already been observed
at APC and OAK this morning. High confidence in VFR prevailing by
this afternoon with a persistence forecast on tap for tonight. Haze
will likely reduce slant range visibilities.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence
in VFR through the TAF period. Easterly/Northeasterly winds will
prevail through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with drainage flow at both
terminals. High confidence in VFR at both terminals. Winds may
briefly back to become onshore this afternoon, but drainage flow is
expected to prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will veer through the morning
to become offshore through Saturday before northerly winds return
Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the
exception of the northwestern portion of the waters where rough
seas are expected today.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
Hazardous beach conditions continue at all Pacific Coast beaches
today. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and
large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves
that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected,
overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the
ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over
or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold
water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures
hovering around 55 degrees. Remain out of the water, stay off of
waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and
never turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jan 15 08:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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