Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 241201
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
501 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures through Memorial
   Day Weekend

 - Inside slider like pattern will bring strong northerly winds Tuesday
   and kickoff a gradual warming and drying trend Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1257 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026
(Today through Monday)

Surface troughing will continue through Memorial Day Weekend. This 
will keep the marine layer deep around 2,000 feet with early returns 
and late clearings. Sensible weather wise, temperatures will remain 
near to slightly below normal with onshore flow. Gusts of 25-35 mph 
are expected along the coast, across ridgelines, and through west-
east oriented gaps and passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1257 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026
(Tuesday through Saturday)

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of upper-level troughing 
arriving Tuesday, marking the coolest day of the week. Strong 
northerly winds will develop, bringing gusts of 30-40 mph to the 
coast, across ridgelines, and through gaps and passes with 
widespread hazardous conditions for small craft across the waters. 
As the trough digs, it is expected to become a cutoff low. While 
there is uncertainty in the exact location, strength, and timing, it 
is looking likely that an inside slider like pattern will develop 
Wednesday into Thursday. While inside slider is usually synonymous 
with elevated fire weather conditions, good to excellent overnight 
relative humidity recovery will help mitigate these concerns for 
now. This pattern will support northerly (drying) winds, kicking off 
a gradual warming and drying trend. The aforementioned cut off low 
will fill and become an open wave by Friday, leaving zonal flow with 
onshore flow in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

The marine layer is well established, leaving the majority of the 
sites with MVFR cigs this morning. Expect these conditions to 
continue through the morning, with perhaps a few pockets of IFR cigs 
being possible. Stratus burns off by mid to late morning, with VFR 
conditions returning to most interior locations. Stratus should 
along the coast to some extent which could leave sites like KHAF 
with MVFR cigs all day. Given no real pattern change today, look for 
the marine layer to return and bring another night of MVFR cigs. 

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has yet to fill in at KFSO, but satellite 
shows it slowly advancing to the terminal. Expect MVFR cigs to fill 
in, which will then last through mid to late morning. VFR conditions 
will then prevail through at least the evening hours. Given the 
pattern looks to stay the same, MVFR cigs should return to SFO early 
Monday morning. Pushed the timing back some given what has
occurred the last two days, with skies clearing by 17Z. Medium to
high confidence in the forecast. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs plague the terminals around 
Monterey Bay, as the marine layer holds at about 2000ft this 
morning. Conditions should clear out by mid to late morning, which 
should give us a period of VFR conditions for a few hours this 
afternoon. MVFR cigs return early this evening and then hold into 
Monday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

Light breezes and diminished seas will persist through through
Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds from a developing system set
to arrive on Tuesday will result in building rough seas for the
second half of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM/KR

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun May 24 06:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service