FXUS66 KMTR 051808 CCA
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
- Another day of above normal temperatures before slight cooling
through the weekend.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday evening at Pacific
Coast beaches.
- 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the
coastal mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
(Today through Friday)
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery has very weak signatures of
low clouds and fog in pockets of valley locations this morning.
KSTS has had moments of reporting visibility down as low as 1/2
mile, but given the lack of fog on webcams it must be fairly
shallow and localized. As temperatures continue to cool toward day
break, localized pockets of fog may be possible, however,
confidence in dense fog is low at this time and will be monitored
closely.
The region remains under the influence of an upper level high
that is centered near the northern Nevada/southwestern Idaho
border along with a localized area of lower pressure almost 300
miles southeast of San Diego, as analyzed by SPC mesoanalysis.
Clear skies dominate the area with light south to southeasterly
winds. Minimum temperatures were nudged slightly warmer than the
blend this morning for the Salinas and Santa Clara Valleys given
the low level thermal ridge and the chance for downsloping winds
warming temperatures slightly.
Once again looking at satellite imagery, a noticeable cloud bank
out over the ocean is slowly drifting eastward toward the
California coastline. This is associated with a 850-700 mb trough
that is expected to continue to move east-southeast toward the
California coast and phase with the previously mentioned low
southeast of San Diego. This trough will drive cooler air
advection which will limit temperatures to the 60s on Friday, with
isolated far inland areas barely touching 70. Lastly, the NAM is
showing a localized 700 mb vort maxima associated with the
remnants of the San Diego low that drifts toward the Big Sur
coastline on Friday as it phases with the incoming trough. With
the increased moisture being lifted upslope in conjunction with
this vort max, it cannot be completely ruled out that some light
rain/sprinkles develop along the Big Sur coast on Friday. However,
PoPs were limited to below 15 percent currently given the lack of
consistency across the model suite to have any confidence in
timing and occurrence.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
(Friday night through Wednesday)
A weak ridge is expected to redevelop on Saturday, but the
(relatively) cooler upper air will remain. Temperatures are
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal, but still cooler
than they have been this past week. Other than some partly cloudy
skies in the afternoons, dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend.
A longwave trough is expected to traverse the northeast Pacific
over the weekend and move toward the British Columbia coastline by
Sunday night. A weak, shortwave trough is expected to eject away
from the parent wave and descend down the western coastline
through Sunday evening. Ensembles continue to highlight the higher
QPF in the Pacific northwest, but just enough moisture should
move southward to provide light rain in the North Bay in the
evening, with a 15 to 25 percent chance of moving southward
overnight.
Beyond Monday morning, another more robust trough is expected to
drop southward from the northeast Pacific. While ensembles are
showing fairly good agreement with a system moving in next week,
there is still a lot of uncertainty in the details. That being
said, it looks like a pattern change that can lead to slightly
wetter and cooler/more seasonable temperatures is expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Currently most terminals VRF with some skies SKC and a few seeing
FEW200 build in from off the coast. Some FG/HZ remains trapped in
a few East Bay valleys (KLVK seeing MVFR conditions), and will
take another couple hours to lift and scatter out (satellite
trends do show gradual improvement). Winds remain AOB 10kts and
generally off shore with some local influences. Gradients will
weaken today, letting diurnal influences creep in for some sites
(with winds remains AOB 10kts). Some mid/high level moisture will
move in around/after 03Z from the west. This should curb chances
for FG/HZ formation tonight/early Fri morning, however non-zero
chances for KSTS exist. Lower cigs arrive near the end of the
period.
Vicinity of SFO...Light E/NE winds will become NW this
afternoon. Skies generally SKC, with SCT-BKN at 15kft or above
morning in early Friday morning. This should curb chances for HZ
forming Friday morning. Cigs will lower near 18Z Fri, potentially
seeing MVFR/IFR impacts at times from 18Z through the end of the
period. Could see some sprinkles during this time.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Mostly VFR conditions through the
period. Mid to high level clouds will move in early Friday
morning. Light southeast winds tonight through Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Light south and east winds today will shift to northwest by
Friday. Seas will remain slight to moderate today then rapidly
build into rough seas tonight to Saturday. Winds will increase on
Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front from the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4
AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a
High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet
on Friday.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for February 5th.
Location Feb 5th Record High
Santa Rosa 80 in 2011
San Rafael 79 in 2011
Kentfield 78 in 2011
Napa 79 in 2011
Richmond 81 in 2018
Livermore 78 in 2018
San Francisco 77 in 2018
SFO Airport 73 in 2011
Redwood City 77 in 2018
Half Moon Bay 76 in 2018
Oakland Museum 77 in 2011
San Jose 79 in 2018
Salinas Airport 80 in 2018
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for
Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Saturday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...DeLizio
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 5 12:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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