FXUS66 KMTR 252038
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
138 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
- Above normal temperatures persist into the weekend
- Increasing potential for light rain returning early to mid
next week
- Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior
Mountains Thursday into Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Not much change in the forecast in the short term. Temperatures
early this afternoon are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than at
this time yesterday, even cooler in some coastal spots a sign of a
slightly robust marine layer. However, away from the coast, we're still
expecting to see highs 10-15 degrees above normal. The progressive
upper trough moving inland to our north will moderate overnight
lows behind a weak cold front slightly lower from what we woke up
to this morning, generally still in the 40s to low 50s across our
area. The northerly flow behind the cold front today advecting
cooler temperatures will evolve into slightly warming
compressional downsloping winds later Thursday into early Friday
as an upper level disturbance tracks inland to our south. Both
HREF and ECMWF ensemble data show less than a 20% chance for winds
exceeding advisory level across portions of the Northbay, less
than 10% everywhere else.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Quiet weather returns for Friday into the weekend with a ridging
pattern reemerging offshore leading to warmer than normal
temperatures, sunny skies and light winds. The timing for a
pattern change continues to trend closer to the middle of next
week, however consensus is improving for the potential for more
widespread wetting rainfall with the deepening trough moving
onshore Tuesday and Wednesday. With increased clouds and rain
temperatures would shift to slightly below normal by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
The low clouds and fog from this morning have dissipated, with
satellite imagery now showing high level clouds passing overhead.
Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period, with the
most notable forecast change being an increase in winds. Winds
ramp up this afternoon and evening bringing gusts in the 15-25kt
range for interior valleys and gustier conditions up to 25-30kt
near the coast, perhaps locally higher. Winds will begin to ease
late tonight and into Thursday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...The stratus flirted with KSFO this morning, but
has cleared. Now high clouds filter overhead while northwest winds
of 10-15kt hold. Increasing winds are expected this afternoon with
gusts peaking around 20-25kt and near 25-30kt between 04-08Z. Winds
gradually ease overnight and should fall to 5-10kt around sunrise,
plus or minus a few hours. VFR conditions expected.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore flow will increase today, leading
to a period of breezy winds this afternoon and evening of 15-20kt,
perhaps a few gusts to 25kt. Closer to the immediate coast, stronger
gusts of 25-30kt are expected. Winds gradually decrease late tonight
and into Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Hazardous conditions across the outer and inner waters have
developed with increasing north-northwest gales. These conditions
will persist through the remainder of today and tonight into
Thursday morning across all outer waters. Conditions begin to
improve south to north by Thursday evening, persisting over the
northern outer waters through Friday afternoon. Wind and seas ease
for the weekend, then begin to increase once again by the middle
of next week a developing system begins to move toward shore.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 25 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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