FXUS66 KMTR 140016
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
516 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Continued hot and dry today and tomorrow for interior
communities with Moderate HeatRisk.
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
Area and Central California Coast.
- Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
GOES-West visible imagery shows clear skies across most of the area
with lingering stratus hugging close to the Pacific coastal
communities and western San Francisco. The stratus will continue to
recede to the marine environment this afternoon but will return
overnight.
Upper-level pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over the
eastern Pacific. While a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ridging
will keep afternoon high temperatures warmer than usual,
particularly for interior areas. High temperatures will be in the
80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations leading to
localized Moderate HeatRisk, especially noted in the Santa Clara
Valley and Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The Heat Advisory will
end at 7 PM PDT this evening however precautions should continue to
be taken to alleviate the risk for heat related illnesses Sunday
through Tuesday. Ways to stay safe during the heat is to wear light
weight, loose clothing, drink water frequently, and spend time in
the shade or in air conditioned buildings. Know the difference
between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat
stroke is a medical emergency.
High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle
of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar
perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a
combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern
Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the
vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to
bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week.
While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at
2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest
observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from
July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Starting tomorrow, the high pressure situated over the Pacific
will flatten and begin to weaken slightly, allowing for daytime
temperatures to gradually cool and return to mid-June
climatological normal. Usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast
is expected for the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 355 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
A persistence pattern remains in place across the region which is
bringing increasing confidence for marine stratus to impact most
terminals tonight and overnight, outside of the deep interior.
Daytime heating successfully eroded the morning stratus deck back to
the coast, but a robust evening push is expected to drive IFR to
LIFR ceilings back inland tonight. Satellite imagery continues to
hold stratus across KHAF and has now filled in across KSNS. High
resolution and probabilistic guidance has trended towards stratus
moving into the adjacent coastal valleys before spilling through the
gaps and North Bay valleys into the San Francisco Bay overnight.
Lowest visibility restrictions will be found immediately along the
coast while the lower-lying inland valleys will see wider-ranging
and less restrictive visibilities overnight. Conversely, deep
interior locations will remain free of ceiling impacts. Wind speeds
to diminish tonight and overnight, with marine stratus burning off
through tomorrow late morning into the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO... High confidence for VFR conditions continuing
late tonight with moderate confidence that stratus will start will
fill in across the Bay and into the terminal overnight. Current
northwest winds will remain a little breezy between 15-20 knots into
the evening before subsiding after sunset.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO
Vicinity of SJC and OAK... For OAK, VFR is expected to prevail until
late tonight before stratus pushes in across the Bay, bringing
likely IFR stratus. SJC will be more removed from the marine
influence bringing higher confidence for VFR conditions through the
TAF period, with some some transient low-level moisture possible
overnight.
Monterey Bay Terminals... High confidence persistence forecast for
KMRY and KSNS as the marine layer remains deeply entrenched across
the bay. Stratus has already filled in across the valley through
KSNS and will continue to fill in across KMRY over the next several
hours. Periods of IFR to LIFR cigs are expected overnight along with
decreasing visibilities through the mid-morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Gentle southerly breezes and moderate to rough seas with a low
south-southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal
waters. Fresh to strong breezes will be possible along the Big Sur
coast through this evening. Winds will remain fairly consistent
through the weekend as the seas subside.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Sunday through late
Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to
Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 13 20:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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