FXUS66 KMTR 061119
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
319 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Tonight through Friday)
The 00Z KOAK sounding found bone dry conditions through the
troposphere. The precipitable water was measured at 0.34", which is
near the 10th percentile for this time of year. The upper level
pattern is mostly zonal with a weak ridge building. At the surface
this pattern is supporting high pressure over the Rockies and lower
pressure at the coast. There have been some gentle to moderate
offshore winds as a result of this pressure gradient, although they
were mostly overpowered by the sea breeze this afternoon. Expect dry
conditions and comfortable temperatures to continue Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Saturday through next Thursday)
The conditions are fairly consistent through the weekend, although a
weak mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Sunday. This won't be a major factor for our weather, but
temperatures will come down a couple degrees back to seasonal
average. The more interesting feature is set to arrive mid to late
next week. Ensembles are in good agreement that a deep trough will
impact the coast and bring some rain. There is quite a bit of
disagreement on the amount of moisture however. Ensemble
precipitable water (PWAT) values are all over the place. Euro
ensemble members are estimating PWAT between 0.4" to an inch,
meanwhile GFS ensemble members estimate between 0.3 to 1.1 inches.
Ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) values are not
much better with a spread of 0.01 to 1.4 inches of rain. Needless to
say, it is too early to pin down how much rain is expected, but the
window opens around Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the region with shallow fog and
mist at STS and a low confidence for stratus development within the
SF Bay. If stratus does develop, it will likely develop sometime
before 18Z. A gentle to moderate northwest wind will develop in the
afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight. Low confidence
in stratus development along the coast before the end of the 24-hour
TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... Generally VFR with a low confidence for MVFR
stratus through 18Z. A gentle west-northwest breeze develops in the
afternoon and evening hours before becoming light overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach... Low confidence of stratus impacts along the
approach path as far east as SJC through around 18Z. Otherwise
similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR prevails through at least the evening
hours. Light drainage winds through the morning will develop into a
gentle northwest wind this afternoon and evening, with a low
confidence of IFR-MVFR stratus impacts overnight into Saturday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Rough, ten foot seas will result in hazardous conditions for small
craft across the outer waters through Saturday night. Very rough
seas will build into the outer waters Sunday into Monday with
moderate to rough seas across the inner waters. Moderate to fresh
northerly breezes will prevail across the inner and outer waters
with bays remaining more sheltered. Chances for unsettled weather
return during the middle and later parts of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM
Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday
11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8,
1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above
normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions
include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical
tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with
an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 6 06:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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