FXUS66 KMTR 071736
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
936 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)
The warming and drying trend continues! High pressure remains over
the region through the weekend resulting in maximum temperatures to
reach 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle to moderate offshore flow
persists across the higher terrain and gradually diminishes by
Sunday. This coincides with when a cold front is forecast to
propagate across the Pacific Northwest with no direct impacts to our
area. At most, the incoming system will support a prominent onshore
flow, allowing for increased low cloud cover across the Bay Area and
portions of the Central Coast. The North Bay, San Francisco, and the
Peninsula have the greatest chance of experiencing a subtle relief
from the warm conditions, though it will be short-lived. Interior
locations elsewhere continue to bask in the sun this weekend.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal
Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Monday through next Friday)
In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure builds again with
max temperatures up to 15 deg F above average through mid-week.
Upstream, an open wave mid-level trough deepens as it approaches the
West Coast as early as Thursday. Therefore, anticipate an increased
chance for precipitation across the Bay Area and Central Coast as
this system approaches our coastline. Ensemble model members and
clusters tend to agree on a general troughing pattern late next
week. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
the exact trajectory of this system as well as its moisture content.
Tune in for more updates on next week's rain chances and impacts!
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of today
and this evening. Higher confidence in return of stratus for the
coastal, especially Monterey Bay terminals late tonight into early
Sunday morning. Lower confidence for North Bay and Bay Area
ceilings, though fog is possible at KSTS.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast
period with a slight chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing Sunday
morning late in the TAF period as more robust onshore flow
returns.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to continue today and this evening
with higher confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings returning late tonight
into Sunday morning with more robust onshore flow.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 932 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Moderate to fresh northwesterlies will continue across the
coastal waters with locally strong breezes south of Point Sur.
Hazardous conditions will continue into the beginning of next week
with rough to very rough seas at times, and mixed long period
swells.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 340 AM PST Oct Nov 7 2026
Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and
have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will
remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such,
large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will
be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at
exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and
bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks,
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave
activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show
additional swells impacting the coast late next week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM
Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2
ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the
San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell
will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches
with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Caz506-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Caz506-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Caz505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 10:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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