Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 221017
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
217 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

 - Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through
   Wednesday

 - Warming and drying trend kicks off Thursday with the return of
   above normal temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Today and tonight)

A storm force low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast 
and surface high pressure in the Intermountain West will continue to 
tighten the pressure gradient. As a result, strong southerly winds 
with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected along the Pacific Coast and 
in the higher terrain. The attendant cold front to the 
aforementioned low will be close enough to generate pre-frontal rain 
showers. No adverse impacts are expected from them and they are 
expected to remain confined to the North Bay with drizzle possible 
for locations to the south. Temperatures will rebound to near 
seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern 
California Coast will bring tropical moisture along with it on 
Monday. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 
500 kg/ms on Tuesday with PWAT values expected to break the daily 
record. Even though the moisture content is expected to be rich, the 
dynamics are expected to be poor. The reason is due to the pattern 
that we are in with ridging to our southeast and troughing to our 
northwest - this will force the low up and over us into the Pacific 
Northwest. This leads to high confidence that the North Bay will 
receive the highest rainfall accumulations. Southwest facing terrain 
will have locally higher totals with the help of orographic lift and 
a perpendicular moisture fetch from the tropics off to the 
southwest. Adjacent valleys will experience the rain shadow effect. 
Impacts wise, flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas 
will be possible, especially in the North Bay. Ponding and slick 
roadways will be likely. If rain rates get intense enough, shallow 
landslides will be possible, especially in the North Bay. IVT values 
will quickly decrease after peaking, with only light rainfall 
expected Wednesday morning with the cold frontal passage. A warming 
and drying trend commences on its heels with upper-level shortwave 
ridging building across Baja California, resulting in temperatures 
10 degrees above normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

Airports report VFR. Widely scattered to broken clouds tonight and 
Sunday, lighter winds tonight and Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Southerly to southeasterly wind 5 to 10
knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots 
tonight and Sunday. Winds becoming variable to onshore 5 to 10 
knots mid to late Sunday afternoon then light and variable to
light southeasterly Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 934 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

Southerly winds and seas decrease Sunday. Rain chances increase
across northern waters tonight then spread farther south Monday
night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then
begin to ease by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for SF 
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 22 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service