FXUS66 KMTR 121940
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1240 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Hot and dry today for interior locations with a moderate risk
of heat-related illnesses
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
beaches this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (This afternoon through
Saturday)
The upper-level pattern continues to be influenced by a ridge over
the eastern Pacific. This maintains the above normal high
temperatures observed over the last several days and today,
leading to a moderate risk for heat related illnesses for the
eastern areas. The Heat Advisory for the interior East Bay and
South Bay will end this evening.
GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows the stratus continues to
move back over the marine environment clearing most of the cities
along the Pacific Coast. Otherwise sunny skies across the area.
Stratus will continue to push westward for the next several hours
eventually moving back inland this evening into the overnight
period following typical June stratus patterns.
High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the Bayshore
through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new
moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional
tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion
of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level
Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s
will add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through
early next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in
January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up
being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current
record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Saturday night through
next Thursday)
A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the
eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote a
cooling trend for interior locations into the second half of the
weekend lessening the risk for heat related illnesses to minor.
Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus. While
temperatures will return closer to middle- June climatology, the
main hazards into early next week will be the southerly swell
along the coast, plus coastal flooding associated with the high
tides.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Southerly surge with coastal stratus and fog impacted Half Moon Bay
and Monterey early this morning with reduced visibilities (IFR-
LIFR). The fog and stratus also reached through the Golden Gate to
the East Bay, but didn't impact visibilities. Inland conditions
remained VFR. Diurnal surface heating has started to burn off some
of the fog allowing for ceilings and visibilities to improve late
this morning. As diurnal surface heating continues this afternoon
ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve (back to MVFR and
VFR) along the coastline. High resolution modeling continues to show
coastal stratus and fog (IFR-LIFR) to redevelop tonight and tomorrow
morning. Similar conditions from this morning are expected again
tomorrow morning. Winds will follow similar patterns to the past 24
hours with speeds increasing to moderately breezy this afternoon,
but diminishing around sunset.
Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR conditions continuing into
the overnight hours. Current NE winds will go NW'rly early this
afternoon (~20Z). Wind speeds will increase into the middle teens
this afternoon, but subside back below 10 kt around or shortly after
sunset. Winds will then go westerly early tomorrow morning before
going light and variable by the middle of tomorrow morning. IFR
conditions are forecasted for tomorrow morning as radiative cooling
may result in some patchy low stratus/fog developing.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Winds will predominately be out of the
W/NW at OAK through the period. Winds at SJC will be out of the NW
through this evening before going S/SE during the overnight hours.
Wind speeds, at both sites, will be in the low to mid teens this
afternoon through sunset, otherwise winds will be aob 8 kt. For OAK,
morning stratus/fog (IFR) is expected to redevelop tonight and
tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. At SJC, VFR
conditions are anticipated the whole period as morning stratus is
not expected to impact the airport.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar conditions from the past 24 hours
are expected for the next 24 hours. Stratus/fog from earlier this
morning is starting to burn off with diurnal surface heating
allowing for conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. Stratus/fog
(IFR/LIFR) is expected to redevelop and move inland tonight and
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and variable (but may tend to
be more onshore winds) through the majority of the period.
Westerly winds are expected to increase to 7-10 kt this afternoon,
then subside around sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across the coastal waters. The winds
will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the seas
subside.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. Hazardous beach conditions will expand to
include Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay
Area coast starting Saturday evening through Tuesday morning. Be
sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves
will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late
Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529-530.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Berislavich
MARINE...Berislavich
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jun 12 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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