FXUS66 KMTR 170458
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
958 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased
risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)
Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas
early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA.
The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in
that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow
an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is
expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland
around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight.
High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights
(590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With
similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a
few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures.
Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and
90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These
temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized
areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart
heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by
limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if
outdoors), and staying hydrated.
Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading
to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for
inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be
around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar
temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of
the marine layer (which will be similar to today's).
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us
the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to
be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and
1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In
addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases
the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach
Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES
section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn
your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down
with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This
trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher
terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry
with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early
Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the
marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate
further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak
troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting
to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming
trend, especially for the inland areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding across the region and will impact most
of the terminals tonight as breezy onshore winds continue to
diminish overnight. Moderate to high confidence that LVK will remain
VFR through the night, with some high resolution model output
showing stratus impacts in the vicinity of the terminal. Stratus
retreats back to the coast Wednesday morning, with the breezy
onshore winds resuming in the afternoon, again with a southerly
component as a mesoscale low develops off the North Bay coastline.
At HAF, high confidence that ceilings continue through the TAF
period. Stratus will begin to expand inland again by the end of the
24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions at present with breezy west-
northwest winds diminishing through the early overnight hours.
Moderate confidence in MVFR-IFR stratus timing at SFO, but ceilings
are expected to develop by 10Z. Stratus will dissipate through
Wednesday morning with breezy west winds returning to the terminal
in the afternoon. Stratus will return to the terminal area late
Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach... Stratus may impact the approach path a
little later than at the terminal tonight. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC... Stratus has taken hold at OAK with the
breezy west winds diminishing through the evening. At SJC, there is
low to moderate confidence on the timing of stratus impacts as
radiational development is possible, but should no radiative stratus
develop, MVFR ceilings should develop around 10-12Z. Stratus will
dissipate in the afternoon with breezy northwest winds developing at
OAK. Confidence in the wind direction and speed is lower at SJC for
Wednesday afternoon as the terminal sits between a northwest flow
from SF Bay and downsloping winds from the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Have opted to lean more towards the climatological diurnal wind, but
may need to carefully monitor observations and future TAF updates
through the day. Stratus will return to OAK sometime late Wednesday
night through Thursday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR stratus through the night into
Wednesday morning as breezy winds continue to diminish through the
evening and early overnight hours. Stratus should retreat to the
immediate coast on Wednesday morning with the breezy onshore winds
resuming in the afternoon, coming from the west at MRY and the
northwest at SNS. Wednesday evening, stratus flow could impact SNS
as early as 00-02Z, and MRY soon after.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 958 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Fresh to strong north winds across the northern outer waters
result in hazardous seas through tomorrow morning. However,
onshore pushes will bring moderate to fresh south to southwest
winds for the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the
afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point
Sur north to Point Pinos and Pigeon Point to the Golden Gate.
Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds into the weekend. Seas
will remain slight to moderate into the weekend with a low south-
southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast
beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 17 00:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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