FXUS66 KMTR 062032
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1232 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)
High pressure building in from the Eastern Pacific continues to
dominate our weather pattern across the Bay Area and north Central
Coast. As such, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be some
2-11 deg F above normal through the remainder of the upcoming
weekend. Morning minimum temperatures will be similarly warm.
Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures will be in the mid-
to-upper 60s with interior valleys reaching the low-to-mid 70s.
The greatest potential for reaching 80 deg F will be across the
interior Central Coast.
Please see the BEACHES section of the AFD below for more on the
Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)
On Sunday, a weakening frontal boundary is forecast to move into
Northern California and brush the North Bay Sunday afternoon and
evening. However, as the boundary continues to weaken, little to no
rainfall is expected. That said, a shallow marine layer is forecast
to return. A slight cool down is expected across the North Bay
Sunday and Monday, however temperatures still will remain above
seasonal averages. Either weak ridging or zonal flow aloft will
maintain dry weather conditions and warm temperatures through at
least Wednesday.
Thursday and beyond, expecting the mid/upper level trough to deepen
along or off of the West Coast. This will result in the potential
for unsettled weather conditions to return to the region. The
Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 Day Outlook (12th - 16th) has
a 65% to 80% probability of greater than normal precipitation.
It's still to far out in time given the model uncertainty late
next week and beyond, yet be prepared for rain to return to the
region!
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a
slight chance of fog developing in the North Bay late in the
overnight period to early Saturday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the forecast period with
relatively light onshore flow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus
developing this evening into Saturday morning. Light winds out of
the northwest will shift to light south-southeast winds in the
afternoon and evening hours before becoming more variable
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 944 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Rough seas will build to very rough seas across our outer waters
late Saturday into the beginning of next week, sigh moderate to
rough seas across the inner waters. Expect moderate to fresh
northerly breezes over the inner and outer waters. Unsettled
weather is expected to develop by the second half of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast
beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16
feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also
increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves
can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people
into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back
on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM
Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2
ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the
San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell
will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches
with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 6 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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