FXUS66 KMTR 101216
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
416 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
- Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled
weather returns late week into next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return
late week into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Tonight through Wednesday)
A very weak and dry 500 mb trough in the flow will pass to our
east overnight. Slightly higher surface pressures will continue
to build in over the coastal waters to far northern California
into Tuesday morning. In the wake of the trough, 500 mb ridging
will return Tuesday. 24 hours ago the surface pressure gradient
was more susceptible to light land breezes i.e. cool air drainage
winds mixing with higher dew point air (water vapor) resulting in
fog to dense fog development. The potential is there for low
clouds and fog through Tuesday morning, but if e.g. the SFO-SAC
pressure gradient can hold onto a weak onshore direction this may
help limit the areal coverage of fog and dense fog Tuesday morning.
That is, sea surface warmth with a light onshore wind may help slow
or reduce fog and dense fog coverage, except for inland valleys
farthest removed from maritime influence. Otherwise a clear sky to
daybreak Tuesday morning will allow radiative cooling. Will of course
monitor satellite and observations and issue a dense fog advisory
if needed.
Dry weather continues Tuesday through Veterans Day. Daytime highs
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue slightly above normal with highs
in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and lower 80s inland.
Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Strong polar jet stream winds crossing the Pacific will move a
500 mb low toward southern California and northern Mexico Thursday
through Friday. There's increasing confidence that a cold front
with at least light to moderate rain will arrive in our forecast
area Friday. Recent model forecasts show southerly to southwesterly
winds increasing out ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Wet
weather may impact the morning commute in the Bay Area, but right
now chances look more favorable that the bulk of the rain (and wind)
will arrive in the late morning through afternoon, something to
keep in mind for the afternoon and possibly the evening commute.
Rain totals at this time: 1" North Bay to 1/3" to 1/2" elsewhere
across the rest of the forecast area.
A few showers linger Saturday. Another cold frontal passage Sunday
brings another chance of rain. Cold upper level troughing with the
potential for additional rain is forecast for late weekend and early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Much less aviation impacts this morning as a result of weak offshore
flow. Still seeing transient LIFR for the N Bay Valleys, but
elsewhere currently VFR. There is a small area of CIGs/FG
developing near HWD. Some guidance spreads this S to SJC and NW
for OAK/SFO. Conf is pretty low on this occuring. TAF forecast has
trended to be more optimistic. Currently have a tempo for dense
fog at OAK, but may need to remove that soon if CIGs aren't
spreading NW. VFR this afternoon. Guidance suggests another
fog/cig event again tonight, but given guidance performance this
AM less inclined to fully go with it. Low conf forecast for this
AM.
Vicinity of SFO...Trended forecast to VFR today. Will bring in
some to IFR late tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with drainage flow. Onshore this
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail over the
coastal waters through Tuesday night. Winds become more southerly
midweek as a storm system approaches. Winds increase fresh to
near gale by Friday as a storm system begins to move through. The
increasing winds will produce steep fresh swell. A moderate sea
state will prevail through midweek week. The sea state will
deteriorate late Friday and continue over the weekend thanks to
building northwest swell with a longer period. Mariners with plans
late in the week should monitor the forecast the next few days as
dangerous conditions are expected next weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 415 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Beach Hazards:
No official Beach Hazard in effect. However, latest buoy reports
still show a dynamic marine environment. Moderate periods will
still make for an energetic surf zone today. Expect another round
of Beach Hazard Statements midweek as longer period swells return.
Looking farther down the road dangerous beach conditions will
develop Friday and over the weekend as large swells arrive
bringing potentially the biggest waves of the season.
When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety.
Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to
avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM
Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM
Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM
Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Flynn/MM/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 10 08:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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