Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 222347
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
447 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through 
   Wednesday

 - Minor HeatRisk with below to near normal temperatures Monday

 - Warming trend with pockets of moderate HeatRisk possible across 
   the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday 
   through Thursday, peaking Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 303 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Status continues to erode for all, but the immediate coast and 
through the Golden Gate. The west-northwest feed of stratus looks to 
keep all but the Golden Gate stratus persistent through the 
afternoon. Areas that started the day cloud-free are building into 
the 70s and 80s, with temperatures there expected in the mid 80s to 
low 90s. For the inland areas that started the day off with cloud 
cover but cleared: temperatures will range from the 70s to 80s this 
afternoon. Coastal areas that remain in the stratus look to stick to 
the upper 50s and low 60s.

Cloud cover will build back inland slightly later this evening, but 
will not reach as far inland due to the the marine layer compressing 
into the night. Temperatures will remain cool overnight with most 
areas staying in the mid 50s.

The reduction of marine influence from the compressed marine layer 
will call for the inland areas to continue the warming trend on 
Wednesday while the coast and near-coast areas remain cool. Inland 
areas will build into the 80s while the far interior areas look to 
peak in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 303 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Wednesday looks to offer nearly identical temperatures to Tuesday, 
with a few areas in the more inland portions of the region trending 
a few degrees warmer. The pattern begins to change on Thursday after 
another warm afternoon, leading into a breezy evening with better
onshore flow. 

A trough deepens into the area at the end of the week, leading to a 
resurgence of the marine layer and breezy to gusty winds. The 
increased on shore flow will kick off a cooling trend on Friday, 
with Saturday seeing the coolest high temperatures of the forecast 
with mostly 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

It's VFR except satellite and surface observations show stratus 
/MVFR-IFR/ along the coastline and locally inland. Stratus /MVFR- 
IFR/ moves inland tonight and Tuesday morning. Stratus mixes out 
to the coastline with conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late 
Tuesday morning and afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Tuesday 
night and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR then stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is forecast to 
return to the terminal this evening. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails 
tonight and Tuesday morning with mix out to VFR 18z Tuesday. 
Stratus /MVFR/ returns mid Tuesday evening. West wind 15 to 25 
knots, decreasing to near 10 knots tonight then increasing to 15 
to 25 knots beginning 18z Tuesday, then easing to 12 knots mid 
Tuesday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, 
then stratus /MVFR-IFR/ overnight then mixes out to VFR 17z 
Tuesday. Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots, decreasing to light and 
variable overnight and Tuesday morning then northwest near 10 
knots Tuesday afternoon. For OAK Airport VFR until mid evening 
stratus /MVFR-IFR/ arrives and prevails tonight and Tuesday 
morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. West wind 5 to 15 knots.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ moves inland tonight 
and Tuesday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR late Tuesday
morning and afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ returns Tuesday evening
and night. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Gentle to moderate winds will persist through the middle of the
week. Fresh to strong breezes resume over the northern waters
Wednesday and Thursday, expanding southwards towards the end of
the week. Seas remain moderate through Wednesday, with long period
southwest swell persisting through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 14 to 16 seconds will 
increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the week as 
energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the
California coast, especially for south and southwest facing 
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically 
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of 
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards 
Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday 
afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. 
Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves,
potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in 
people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough 
to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a 
lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from 
jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the
water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Manning

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 22 20:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service