FXUS66 KMTR 021823
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
Thursday through Saturday
- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday
- Light rain for Tuesday except interior Central Coast
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Below normal temperatures continue today with highs peaking in the
mid to upper 60s. Rain remains on track to return tonight with the
highest totals (0.50-0.70") across the North Bay coastal
mountains. Showers pick up overnight and continue into Tuesday
morning so expect wet roads along the coast and across the North
Bay during the morning commute. There is a low potential for
thunderstorms as the main rain band moves onshore tomorrow morning
for the coastal North Bay.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Today and tonight)
The system that brought precip over the weekend is now carving its
way through the Four Corners region. In its wake upper level
ridging is currently building over the CA. As such, expect warmer
and drier conditions to kick off the work week. Speaking of the
weekend rain, residual low level moisture may lead to some patchy
fog, but widespread fog impacts are looking less likely this
morning. High clouds associated with the next rain maker are
spilling over the ridge, which is limiting radiational cooling
potential. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees
warmer than Sunday and in the 60s to lower 70s.
The dry weather will be short-lived as the next rain maker will
make is presence known after midnight tonight. The ridge weakens
and moves eastward. Behind the ridge is another upper level low.
This feature will bring precip back to the region. Rain chances
initially develop over the North Bay late tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Will likely be a wet commute Tuesday morning as the associated
surface low begins to move closer to the coast. Precip chances
will spread S and E through the day, but loose some steam over the
interior Central Coast. In addition to precip, instability
increase over the northern coastal waters during the afternoon.
Thunderstorms have been added to the forecast. Will leave them out
of the forecast over land at this time, but some hi-res models suggest
instability does briefly drift into Sonoma county during the
afternoon. Thunder may need to be added on the next forecast
update. Precip chances linger into early Tuesday before drier
weather returns by Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be greatest
over the North Bay 0.10-0.50", Bay Area 0.01-0.25", Central Coast
little to no accum.
Wednesday kicks off a warming and drying trend that will last
into next weekend with quasi-zonal flow transitioning to ridging
aloft. Temperature rebound will be impressive too as highs reach
the 70s to lower 80s next weekend.
Looking out into fantasy land the Pacific stays active with
additional rain chance on the horizon. Next rain chance return
around Nov 10-11.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
VFR conditions prevail as high clouds blanket the
majority of the region this morning. These conditions will continue
through the rest of today, with a pattern change occuring by Tuesday
morning. An upper level low will cut across northern California
brining rain to the Bay Area and perhaps into the northern area
Central Coast region. The best chances look to be over North Bay and
around SF Bay, with chances decreasing as you go inland. Started
bringing -RA into the North Bay around 15Z, though some models show
a 20% chance of it starting around 12Z for KSTS and areas north and
west of there. Rain chances continue to spread to the southeast
through the morning with showers being possible for the afternoon.
We continue to keep an eye out at the thunderstorm chance.
Probabilities over Sonoma County range from 0-20% favoring the west
side of the region. Opted to not add any thunder to KSTS for the
time being, but if thunder were to happen the best time frame would
be from 18Z-22Z based on the latest guidance. Expect MVFR cigs with
rain, though lower cig and vis are possible with stronger bands or
cells of rain.
Vicinity of SFO...High clouds, VFR conditions, and drainage winds
are on tap for today. This evening winds back and gradually take on
a southerly component ahead of the next weather system. Rain chances
move in mid to late morning, with showers lingering into the
afternoon. Winds begin to pick up as the rain arrives, with 10-15kt
winds expected for Tuesday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today
with southeasterly flow at MRY and southwesterly winds at SNS.
Moderate to high confidence of lower clouds overnight at MRY. High
confidence of diurnal wind patterns through the TAF period. There is
low confidence for rain early tomorrow morning, but it can't be
ruled out completely.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 945 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Rough seas will build into the outer waters tonight through
Wednesday morning, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft.
Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will increase and back
tonight to become moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes ahead
of an approaching cold front. Rain moves in Tuesday with this
system, bringing with it a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms north
of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate
to rough seas will prevail Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell
will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your
back on the ocean!
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR/FR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Nov 2 12:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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