FXUS66 KMTR 111126
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
426 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Sharp cool-down through early week
- Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell through
Monday
- Beach Hazards until Monday evening
- Very light rain possible southernmost Monterey County Sunday-
Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Tonight through Monday)
The northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient has increased to 5.9 mb
while the onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.0 mb. Surface
winds are largely gusty from the northwest over the coastal waters
in response to the northerly pressure gradient, however wind
favored gaps and passes mainly in the East Bay are indicating
ongoing gusty winds as well. 24 hour temperature trends are mostly
cooler across the forecast area as cold air advection is combining
with nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will be in the 60s/70s, warmest inland. Lows will be in the 40s/30s,
coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 along the immediate
coastline and bays.
Spotty very light measurable rain and/or drizzle (less than 0.10")
is possible across southernmost Monterey County due to a surface
to lower/mid level low pressure circulation (it will be weakening
since surface pressures are forecast to increase) moving southward
along the Big Sur coast Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather will
prevail over most of the forecast area through early week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
The forecast area will remain under cool and dry conditions
Tuesday with a daytime warming trend developing mid to late week.
Thursday to Saturday daytime highs are forecast to return above
mid October normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. 500 mb
ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late
week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
VFR except for KHAF and the Monterey Bay terminals, where MVFR
ceilings will persist into mid-morning. A cooler, drier airmass
has settled over our area resulting in limited coverage of marine
layer stratus. Further south where the warmer air over the water
(upper 50s) is advecting directly into the Monterey Bay area and
Salinas Valley, into a cooler airmass over the coastal areas,
where seeing more robust stratus development.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR will persist through the forecast period
with occasionally breezy onshore flow this afternoon, a good day
to fly.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...A more direct fetch of warm/moist air
advection onshore to a cooler airmass over land is resulting in
MVFR ceilings resting on top of the marine layer until mid-
morning. VFR through the remainder of the TAF period once ceilings
lift.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Strong northwest breezes continue to produce rough to very rough
across our coastal waters. Frequent gale to near gale force gusts
can be expected through the early evening hours today. The strong
winds and long period southerly swell will result in a confused
sea state into the beginning of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but
beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will
bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches.
More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long
period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will
build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell
from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive
Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings
will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are
brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high
tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to
avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your
back on the ocean!
MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Oct 11 08:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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