FXUS66 KMTR 150836
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1236 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
- Rain arrives today through Monday
- High surf conditions through Tuesday morning
- Impactful system arriving Wednesday through Thursday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Today and Monday)
High clouds are streaming over the Bay Area and Central Coast. These
are precursors to a frontal band of rain stemming from a low that is
situated off the coast of British Columbia. A glance at the radar
returns from Eureka shows a preview of what we can expect, namely a
period of steady if rather light rain coming through while an
embedded narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) brings a burst of more
intense rainfall. Later this morning, the front should enter the
North Bay and crawl southwards, coming into the SF Bay Area in the
afternoon hours and the South Bay and Monterey Bay regions during
the evening. As the front crawls through the region, it decouples
from the parent low, which travels northward towards Alaska, and a
new low forms within the Great Basin. This might account for some of
the slowing trend seen in the high resolution models, where the
steady rainfall could linger late into the night. Areas of the
interior East Bay, South Bay, and Central Coast could very well wake
up on Monday morning to find that the steady rain continues to
impact their morning commutes. Meanwhile, scattered post-frontal
showers are possible along the coastal areas behind the front. The
band of rain moves out of the interior Central Coast Monday
afternoon. Winds will continue to flow from the south until the
front passes over, when to will switch to the northwest. Wind
impacts will not be as strong as those from last Friday's system;
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible along the coast, through favored
gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines. Rainfall totals from this
system range from 1-1.25" in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, 0.5-1" in
the central SF Bay Area, Sonoma and Marin Counties, and Santa Cruz
County, 0.25-0.5" in the interior East Bay and southern Santa Clara
Valley, and the northern parts of the Central Coast, and 0.1-0.25"
in the southern reaches of Monterey County.
Lows this morning will range from the middle to upper 40s in the
inland valleys, the upper 30s to lower 40s in the coldest spots of
the interior Central Coast, the upper 40s to lower 50s near the
Bays, and the middle 50s near the Pacific coast. Highs today will
lie in the middle to upper 60s for the lower elevations of the
Central Coast and SF Bay Area south of the Golden Gate and Carquinez
Strait, the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Bay valleys, and
the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. On Monday, morning
lows drop to the lower to middle 40s in the North Bay valleys, while
highs in the lower elevations will cool to the upper 50s to lower
60s.
A High Surf Warning continues through 4 AM this morning, with a High
Surf Advisory extending from that time out through Tuesday morning
as breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet are still coming through the
waters. Favored breakpoints could see waves of 25 to 35 feet. These
waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on Saturday, which
ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier,
but remain hazardous to potential swimmers, could still knock
unaware people into the water, and continue to feed an increased
risk of rip currents. Hopefully the rainfall will discourage too
much beach travel, but those who do travel to the beach are strongly
encouraged to stay away from the water's edge, keep off of rocks,
jetties, and piers, and never turn their backs to the ocean. See the
BEACHES section for more information.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Monday night through Saturday)
A lull in the rainfall arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with highs
remaining cool across the region. Cold temperature products (Frost
Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) are possible for Tuesday
morning, as lows in the inland valleys drop into the middle 30s to
lower 40s, which could bring dangerous conditions to people living
outdoors and sensitive plants, especially when combined with the
recent rainfall making the body feel cooler.
Another system comes into the region beginning late Tuesday and
continuing into Wednesday, Thursday, and potentially early Friday.
This system is looking to be more impactful than the previous two.
On one hand, the associated low pressure system is expected to slow
down as it approaches California. The frontal rain band would thus
move slower as well, allowing for more rainfall to accumulate at any
particular location. On the other hand, as the low comes into the
state, it brings with it a strong jet at the 500 mb level that's
aimed at the northern half of California. Model guidance suggests
that the jet could bring winds of 60 to 70 knots aloft as it comes
across the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. This would support wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the valley floors and raise the possibility
of Wind Advisories for the coastal, Bayshore, and higher elevation
regions. In addition, with prior rainfall from the systems that came
before the midweek system arrives, flooding concerns will increase
as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. This is in
addition to a model trend of remarkably higher rainfall totals
across the region from this system compared to the one we saw last
Friday and the one that's expected to arrive today. Although there's
still time for the final rain total to fluctuate, the current
forecast suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across much of the Bay Area
and Central Coast while the coastal ranges see 3 to 5 inches of
rain. As a final note, the chance for thunderstorms has also
continued to increase and probabilities reach as high as 20-30%
during Wednesday and Thursday. The synoptic setup would favor
convective activity with a cold core low right over or very close to
the Bay Area and Central Coast, robust moisture flow, and the
combination of frontal and terrain-driven lift.
The weather pattern remains active towards the end of, and beyond,
the seven day outlook, with a lean towards precipitation totals
above seasonal averages into the final week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Currently VFR across the board with conditions to deteriorate by
mid to late Sunday morning. A cold front will approach the region
overnight with light, southerly winds continuing. Winds strengthen
slightly ahead of frontal passage before shifting westerly to
northwesterly after passage occurs. Rain chances increase first
across the North Bay early Sunday morning and by the late
morning/afternoon hours for the rest of the Bay Area. Rain will
reach the Central Coast later in the evening. Reductions in
visibility and decreases in ceiling heights are likely as the bulk
of the rain moves in. Showers will become more scattered in nature
by late Sunday and continue into Monday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR conditions return by late tomorrow
morning/early afternoon as a cold front and rain approach the
region. Southerly winds will gradually shift west to northwesterly
throughout the day. Rain looks to continue through the end of the
TAF period, becoming more scattered in nature around or after 12Z
Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Moderate southerly winds continue
through the short term with winds shifting more northwesterly
towards the end of the TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z
and continue through the rest of the night. Reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights are likely as showers start to
arrive.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across the coastal
waters as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect fresh to
strong winds to become more widespread overnight and continuing
into Sunday with widespread rain. Very hazardous marine
conditions and high seas continue into early next week.
Significant wave heights have come down slightly from their
earlier peak but will remain between 15 to 20 feet through Monday
before subsiding Tuesday. Wave heights build again Wednesday into
late week as a strong low pressure system moves through the
coastal waters and brings widespread rain, near gale to gale
force winds, and potential for thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
The High Surf Advisory has been issued, and will go into effect
after the expiration of the High Surf Warning at 4 AM through
Tuesday morning. Long period swells 12 to 16 feet high at 14 to 16
seconds are still coming through the coastal waters. Through the
Advisory period, breaking waves of 20-25 feet are expected with
occasional sets of 25-35 feet likely at favored breakpoints,
including Mavericks Beach. These waves are less energetic than the
ones we saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of
Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to
potential swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the
water, and continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. The
risk of drowning remains high. Do not go in the water, avoid
climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn
your back on the ocean.
DialH
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM PST
Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this
afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 15 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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