FXUS66 KMTR 011128
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more
substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area.
- Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.
- King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.
- Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle
of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for
our region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Today and tonight)
The forecaster's lament this morning... Many times in the summer
this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to
be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus
have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties.
In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn't mean the rest of
the Bay Area hasn't been tricky. The forecast challenge for today
will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on
high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few
hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended
up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places
saw sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even
with the changes. Given there isn't much sign for a huge pattern
change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than
yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North
and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday,
perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of sun
earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should
be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)
You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside
slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty
offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz
mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with
locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored
gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak
Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening
hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level
ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through
the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that.
The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook has us leaning
above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal
chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some
uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast
evolves.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Offshore winds prevail this morning supported by surface pressure
gradients 7.8 mb WMC-SFO and 1 mb SAC-SFO. Stratus and fog /MVFR-
IFR-LIFR/ continue to advect into the Bay Area from the Central
Valley. North to northeast winds are gusty at higher elevations in
the East Bay and the North Bay. A greater depth from the surface
to lower level temperature inversion and gusty winds at and above
the temperature inversion may be helping to limit to greatly limit
areal coverage of fog /LIFR-VLIFR/ so far overnight. The Central
Valley stratus and fog coverage is still well established and
there's plenty of cooling potential still through daybreak. Cirrus
clouds continue to mostly obscure the surface stratus and fog
patterns. Low confidence on stratus and fog redevelopment tonight
and Tuesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR-IFR 12z-16z then MVFR until 22z today.
Northeast to east wind 5 to 8 knots today, becoming light and
variable tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Slant range visibility moderate to poor at
sunrise and sunset. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR early this morning, with cold
air drainage winds otherwise increasing and resulting in greater
mixing through morning resulting in VFR. VFR today and tonight,
low confidence VFR continues Tuesday morning. Southeast winds 5
to 15 knots through morning, becoming light onshore late this
afternoon to light southeasterly winds tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas
will prevail today through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine
conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase
to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough.
Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and
moderate seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening
with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains
in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets
can be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and
jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in
the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Never turn your back
to the ocean.
RGass/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Dec 1 04:30:03 PST 2025
From the National Weather Service
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