FXUS66 KMTR 131932
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1232 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Continued hot and dry today and tomorrow for interior
communities with Moderate HeatRisk.
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
Area and Central California Coast.
- Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
GOES-West visible imagery shows clear skies across most of the area
with lingering stratus hugging close to the Pacific coastal
communities and western San Francisco. The stratus will continue to
recede to the marine environment this afternoon but will return
overnight.
Upper-level pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over the
eastern Pacific. While a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ridging
will keep afternoon high temperatures warmer than usual,
particularly for interior areas. High temperatures will be in the
80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations leading to
localized Moderate HeatRisk, especially noted in the Santa Clara
Valley and Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The Heat Advisory will
end at 7 PM PDT this evening however precautions should continue to
be taken to alleviate the risk for heat related illnesses Sunday
through Tuesday. Ways to stay safe during the heat is to wear light
weight, loose clothing, drink water frequently, and spend time in
the shade or in air conditioned buildings. Know the difference
between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat
stroke is a medical emergency.
High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle
of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar
perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a
combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern
Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the
vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to
bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week.
While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at
2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest
observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from
July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Starting tomorrow, the high pressure situated over the Pacific
will flatten and begin to weaken slightly, allowing for daytime
temperatures to gradually cool and return to mid-June
climatological normal. Usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast
is expected for the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Stratus and fog impacted the coastal and Bay Area terminals this
morning. Daytime heating has allowed for that to burn off with the
marine layer retreating as well. Some of the inland terminals
also were impacted, such as KSTS, KAPC, and KSNS. VFR conditions
will continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours
before the marine layer pushes back inland bringing stratus and
fog back to the region. High resolution modeling continues to
show coastal stratus and fog (IFR-LIFR) to redevelop tonight and
tomorrow morning. Similar conditions from this morning are
expected again tomorrow morning. Winds will follow similar
patterns to the past 24 hours with speeds increasing to moderately
breezy this afternoon, but diminishing around sunset.
Vicinity of SFO...Similar conditions from the past 24
hours are expected for the next 24 hours. High confidence of VFR
conditions continuing into the overnight hours. Current NE winds
will go NW'rly early this afternoon (~20Z). Wind speeds will
increase into the middle teens this afternoon, but subside back
below 10 kt around or shortly after sunset. Winds will then go
westerly early tomorrow morning before going N/NE by the middle
of tomorrow morning. Radiative cooling may result in some
additional areas of patchy low stratus/fog developing during the
overnight/morning hours tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Similar conditions from the past 24
hours are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
predominately be out of the W/NW at OAK through the period. Winds
at SJC will be out of the NW through this evening before going
S/SE during the overnight hours. Wind speeds, at both sites, will
be in the low to mid teens this afternoon through sunset,
otherwise winds will be aob 8 kt. For OAK, morning stratus/fog
(IFR) is expected to redevelop tonight and tomorrow morning,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected. At SJC, stratus is expected
to start impacting the terminal during the overnight hours
(starting ~09Z), however CIGs are not expected to develop with
this stratus over the terminal and VIS is not expected to
decrease.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar conditions from the past 24
hours are expected for the next 24 hours. Stratus/fog from earlier
this morning has burned off with diurnal surface heating allowing
for conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. Stratus/fog (IFR/LIFR) is
expected to redevelop and move inland tonight and tomorrow
morning. The stratus and fog is expected to start to impact the
Monterey Bay terminals as early as 03Z. Winds will be light and
variable (but will tend to be more onshore winds) through the
majority of the period. W/NW winds are expected to increase to
7-13 kt this afternoon, then subside around sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1214 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across most of the coastal waters.
Fresh to strong breezes will be possible along the Big Sur coast
through this evening. Winds will remain fairly consistent through
the weekend as the seas subside.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Tuesday
night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to
Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...KB
MARINE...KB
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 13 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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