FXUS66 KMTR 152320
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
420 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Gradual warming and drying trend into next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)
A gradual warming and drying trend is forecast over the next few
days as high pressure over builds westward over the Four Corners
region. However, a modest marine layer is forecast to persist and
result in cooler conditions near the coast. Near the coast,
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s, bayshore
and coastal valleys are likely to warm into the low 70s to low
80s, and mid 80s to low 90s across the far interior. Breezy
onshore winds are expected each afternoon and evening with gusts
to between 20-30 mph in the favored gaps/passes and down the
Salinas Valley.
Tonight, expecting another round of drizzle and/or mist along the
coast and in the favored upslope coastal regions of the Bay Area.
Temperatures will largely cool into the 50s to low 60s. As
stratus retreats to the coastline by mid-to-late morning and early
afternoon on Sunday, expecting temperatures to be a few degrees
warmer than Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(Monday through next Friday)
A more notable warming and drying trend will begin on Tuesday as the
mid/upper level ridge builds further to the west and spreads
over the Desert Southwest. However, lingering troughiness off of
the Pacific Northwest will maintain a shallow marine layer and
afternoon temperatures slightly below average throughout much of
next week. Overnight/morning minimum temperatures will be near
normal. Above the marine layer's influences, dry conditions are
expected especially Tuesday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Generally MVFR stratus lingers through the afternoon across the
immediate coast with VFR conditions across the rest of the region.
Moderate and gusty onshore pattern winds will persist into the
evening hours. Overnight, IFR-low end MVFR stratus is expected to
expand inland. Stratus will clear Sunday morning with breezy onshore
winds expected to return in the afternoon. Beyond the TAF period,
expect a compressing marine layer to lower stratus ceilings on
Sunday night and limit expansion of the stratus deck inland.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions through the evening hours with
moderate and potentially gusty west-northwest winds. IFR-low end
MVFR stratus will return this evening with low confidence on the
exact timing, although the model output consensus agree on the
stratus developing by 06Z. Stratus clears out late Sunday morning
with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and a low
confidence that stratus returns in the evening before the end of the
TAF period, with greater confidence in stratus impacts after it ends.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR stratus will develop through the
next couple of hours across the terminals. Breezy west winds
continue through the evening hours, turning light overnight. Stratus
will mix out Sunday late morning and early afternoon (moderate
confidence at MRY, high confidence at SNS), with breezy northwest
winds expected in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus may
return to MRY right at or shortly after the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze persists into early next
week with localized fresh gusts possible across the interior
waters. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds
will linger through Sunday. Winds increase to fresh to strong
early next week and remain elevated through the end of the
forecast period. Seas subside this weekend before building to 7 to
9 feet mid week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Canepa
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Aug 15 16:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
|