FXUS66 KMTR 070638
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1138 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
- Warming and drying trend beginning today through the early
part of next week
- Temperatures peaking Monday
- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
populations across the inland valleys beginning this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
(Tonight through Friday)
Low clouds are building inland from the coast, covering the bays
and working their way into some of the interior valleys. Expect
chances for pockets of fog overnight, with the strongest chances in
the North Bay. Because of the marine layer's influence and the
covering of stratus, overnight temperatures look fairly mild woth
most areas seeing lows in the 50s and upper 40s. Only far interior
valleys and higher peaks will fall further into the 40s.
Thursday will see a slow erosion of the lower cloud cover, keeping
certain areas on the cooler side compared to the areas that stay
clear. Inland cloud cover will start clearing in the mid morning,
however areas around the bays will keep cloud cover into the late
morning and early afternoon. The immediate coast looks to keep cloud
cover through the day with moderate to breezy winds, making for much
cooler highs than the rest of the area. Expect highs around 60
degrees along the immediate coast, then the 60s and 70s for areas
more inland, and into the 80s for areas not experiencing the morning
cloud cover. A few areas in the far interior portions of Monterey Co
look to break 90 degrees.
Thursday night will offer fairly similar conditions to what we're
seeing tonight, but with an earlier inland push of coastal stratus.
This will lead to low clouds filling around the SF Bay and Monterey
Bay in the mid evening and will cause a quicker cool-down. The lower
clouds and the marine layer influence look to go slightly farther
inland. This wont have too much of an effect in morning lows, but
will make some areas a slightly cooler for Friday as they linger
into the late morning and early afternoon.
While most areas will see slightly cooler conditions for Friday, a
ridge builds to the north,leading to a small increase in
temperatures for the interior North Bay. This will get things back
on track for the weekend warming trend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Friday night will continue to see the affects of the building ridge
with a compression of the marine layer and a reduction in the
overnight inland push of coastal stratus. Cloud cover will still be
prevalent along the coast, but will struggle to enter the SF Bay and
reach more of the inland areas.
The reduction of marine influence along with the building ridge
calls for much more of the inland areas to break into the 80s for
Saturday, while the coast sits in the low 60s, and the slightly
inland areas stay in the 90s. A few of the more inland areas look to
break into the mid 90s.
The reduction of the marine layer and building of the ridge
continues into Monday, which looks to be the hottest day of the
current forecast. Most of the interior valleys look to break into
the 90s with widespread 80s for all but the near-coastal areas
seeing the 60s and 70s. A building of a thermal belt will also call
for much warmer lows on the higher peaks (60s and a few 70s) and
will lead the peaks into the 90s as well from that warm start. Again
the hottest area of the CWA looks to be interior Monterey Co, which
will have a few spots looking to break 100 degrees.
The longer term forecast shows good cooling for Tuesday, yet things
will stay on the warmer side as the ridge begins to flatten and push
east. This will call for a slightly more zonal flow, leading to weak
onshore winds into the mid week. The national blend of models looks
to continue the steady cooling trend in the late week, but the
latest batch of long term model updates are hinting more at another
ridge building, which will warm things up again in the late week.
The current forecast follows the blend, but as things continue to
update, more considerations may need to be made for the potential
warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
MVFR/IFR clouds are building inland from the coast and look to reach
each TAF site into the late night and early morning. LIFR conditions
look to effect STS and HAF into the early morning and last through
the mid morning, with some fog chances at STS as well. Winds will be
mostly light overnight and through much of the morning. CLoud cover
begins to erode for the more inland sites during the mid morning,
but doesn't clear around the bays until the late morning and early
afternoon. The exceptions will be HAF which sees cloud cover rise
back to IFR then MVFR levels, but never fully clears. Expect
moderate to breezy winds into Thursday afternoon with these winds
reducing again into the late evening. CIGs will lower back to IFR
levels along the coast into the evening and will begin to fill
around the bays again before nightfall.
Vicinity of SFO...IFR CIGs last through the midday on Thursday with
moderate west-northwest winds. Cloud cover scatters into the midday
with lower clouds expected to clear in the mid afternoon as gusty
west wind build. Gusts look to peak around 25 kts through the
afternoon and evening. Winds reduce into the late evening as IFR
CIGs build once again.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGs and light winds are expected
through the mid to late morning. CIGs lower slightly for MRY into
the late night with some reductions in visibility. VFR returns in
the mid morning, first at SNS then MRY. Winds look to stay light at
MRY, but become more moderate for SNS in the mid afternoon. Winds
reduce into Thursday evening with IFR CIGs returning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1124 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026
Winds from the northwest continue to increase. Fresh to strong
north- northwest breezes will spread across both our coastal and
outer waters for the weekend resulting in in building rough seas
which will produce dangerous conditions for small crafts.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 7 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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