FXUS66 KMTR 050751
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
...New CLIMATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work
week.
- Hazardous beach conditions from late tonight through Saturday
evening at Pacific Coast beaches.
- 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the
coastal mountains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
No update to the forecast this evening with one more day of daytime
highs running 10-20 degrees above normal on Thursday. We will see a
gradual shift in the pattern begin on Friday and continue through
the weekend with temperatures moderating closer to normal for this
time of the year.
Also want to spread the word about the hazardous beach conditions
Thursday through Saturday. There will be many visitors from around
the world into our area between now and the beginning of next week.
It will be tempting to visit and get close to the large waves
that will be crashing along our coastline Thursday through
Saturday. Please spread the word to any family, friends,
customers, or strangers that will listen - stay off the rocks,
jetties and cliffs - don't go in the water unless you're aware of
the risks and an excellent swimmer - never turn your back on the
water! No picture is worth your life. Be safe out there always,
but especially through this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Mostly clear skies prevail throughout the San Francisco Bay Area
and Central California Coast this afternoon. A broad, high-
amplitude upper-level ridge remains anchored over California
today, resulting in these exceptionally pleasant February
conditions. 12 PM PST temperatures are generally near to several
degrees above where they were compared to yesterday. Afternoon
maximums will land in mid-60s to upper-70s region-wide, equating
to around 7-15 degrees above normal for this date. Some locations
will be close to daily record highs for the day; please refer to
the Climate section of the discussion for more information.
Upper-level ridge begins to nudge inland more on Thursday as a
weak low approaches the Baja California coast. For our area,
expect only minor day-to-day changes with temperature and sky
cover for tomorrow. Expect another potential foggy start to the
day for some interior East Bay and North Bay locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on
Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend
for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale
back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday
before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the
weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress
towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday.
This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region
beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late
afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total
precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest
forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region.
Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still
remaining low impact overall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
VFR conditions prevail across the region, barring some mist at LVK
and STS, through at least the next few hours. Overnight, Tule Fog
will redevelop into the far interior East Bay, with some chances for
expansion or reduced visibilities at APC early Thursday morning.
Radiational fog and mist could also develop at STS in the early
morning hours, although timing is uncertain. Past experience has
shown that this type of fog can be hard to handle and could show up
as a thin layer of fog at the surface. High resolution models are
also trying to develop some stratus near SJC, but confidence is very
low and the TAF remains clear. Stratus and Tule Fog impacts should
diminish through Thursday morning. Winds will be generally offshore
across the region, with gusty conditions possible in the interior
and near mountain ridges, while a light to gentle onshore push
develops across the coastal regions on Thursday afternoon. Towards
the end of the 24-hour TAF period, an approaching and weakening cold
front may bring a burst of onshore wind and potentially some
ceilings to the region, but timing is rather uncertain at this point.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be light
to gentle, offshore through the night with an onshore push
developing on Thursday afternoon. An approaching weak cold front may
reinforce the onshore flow late Thursday night, but timing is
uncertain and there could be a lull in the winds on Thursday evening
before the front approaches.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Drainage winds
develop overnight, becoming gusty at SNS early Thursday morning,
remaining light at MRY. Onshore flow resumes Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
Light easterly winds tonight will turn southerly by Thursday, then
to northwesterly by Friday as high pressure shifts eastward. Seas
will remain slight to moderate tonight into Thursday then rapidly
build into rough seas Thursday night through Saturday. Winds will
increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping down
from the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4
AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a
High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet
on Friday.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for February 5th.
Location Feb 5th Record High
Santa Rosa 80 in 2011
San Rafael 79 in 2011
Kentfield 78 in 2011
Napa 79 in 2011
Richmond 81 in 2018
Livermore 78 in 2018
San Francisco 77 in 2018
SFO Airport 73 in 2011
Redwood City 77 in 2018
Half Moon Bay 76 in 2018
Oakland Museum 77 in 2011
San Jose 79 in 2018
Salinas Airport 80 in 2018
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 5 00:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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