Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 131903
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1203 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

 - Moderate HeatRisk through Wednesday for most interior locations

 - Monsoon moisture brings a 5-10% chance for thunderstorms 
   through Tuesday

 - Minor coastal flooding continues through Thursday morning due
   to large tidal swings



&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)

You may have noticed some colorful sunrises and sunsets over the 
last two days. Those are being caused by monsoon moisture pushing
up from the south bringing us mid level clouds. Even if it's 
overcast, there is enough room underneath the clouds (about 10,000
feet) for the setting sun to illuminate the bottom of these 
altostratus and altocumulus clouds and create the beautiful 
sunsets. It also helps that the low-level marine layer clouds, 
which typically only sit about 1,000 feet above the surface and 
famously ruin sunsets, were not nearly as widespread as we saw 
last week. So that explains the sunset, but what about the 
monsoon?

While the word invokes many different feelings, "monsoon" actually 
describes a seasonal wind direction reversal. The North American 
Monsoon primarily impacts NW Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico as 
the high summer temperatures in the desert induce thermal low 
pressure that brings in moist air primarily from the Gulf of 
California. This moisture, combined with the instability driven by
high surface temperatures, often generates thunderstorms over the
desert states in the Summer. In fact, Tuscon gets 52% of its rain
from July-September, while we are lucky to get anything. Every 
once in a while the weather pattern aligns in such a way to bring
some of this monsoon moisture to the Bay Area. In this case it's 
driven by a very strong high pressure system over the Rockies. 
This system is so strong that Salt Lake City just set their all 
time record high temperature of 109F. Since winds flow clock-wise 
around a high, this system is pushing the monsoon moisture from 
Arizona in a circular pattern towards Southern California and then
northward to the Bay Area. This final push of southerly winds is 
enhanced by a low pressure trough over the Eastern Pacific. As the
moisture moves along this conveyer belt it also moves higher in 
the atmosphere (humid air is less dense than dry air). This 
explains where the uncommon mid level clouds are coming from.

While this moisture was mostly harmless today, there is a slight 
chance for thunderstorms through Monday. If that happens it could 
bring significant impacts because the high cloud base and much drier 
lower atmosphere means that most of the rain would evaporate before 
it hits the ground. When lightning strikes without much rain, 
wildfires can start. Thunderstorms need 3 ingredients: instability, 
moisture and a lifting mechanism. We have moisture, check that off 
the list. The instability looks pretty meager. The 00Z weather 
balloon from Vandenberg found the steepest lapse rates to be -7.3 
C/km between 850 and 500 mb. That's not terrible, but most of the 
moisture is above 600mb, where it's more like -6.6 C/km, which is 
pretty bad. To add to the issues, there's not really an obvious 
trigger either. Surface heating is the typical trigger for monsoon
thunderstorms in the desert, but these would be high based 
thunderstorms that wouldn't really feel that impact. More likely 
is nocturnal cloud top radiational cooling, combined with cloud 
base heating from surface radiation. While surface cooling makes 
things more stable, cloud top cooling does the opposite. If the 
top of the cloud gets colder and the bottom gets warmer, the 
instability increases due to the steeper lapse rate. The HRRR 
soundings also suggest that in the morning the the moisture plume
will move further down towards the -10 to -20 C sweet spot where 
the combination of supercooled water and ice maximize particle 
collisions and cloud charging potential. So the best chance is 
probably early Monday morning. Even then it's a long shot. We're 
talking like somewhere between 5 and 10%. Don't be surprised if 
you see another good sunrise and even a few drops of rain, 
however. Otherwise Monday will feel pretty much like Sunday. Maybe
a couple degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The slight high based thunderstorm threat continues through at least 
Tuesday morning. There is some evidence that a short wave will move 
through that could make things more interesting, but the moisture 
also starts to clear by then, so we're still talking about single 
digit percentages. The bigger story is the heat. As the moisture 
clears out, so do the clouds. The full sunshine will bring 
temperatures into the mid 90s for several of our hotter cities, with 
mid 70s in the more coastal locations. That's about 5-10 degrees 
above normal. Strong onshore winds will arrive in the afternoon and 
help cool the coast quickly. Wednesday will be very similar to 
Tuesday, just without the thunderstorm threat. By Thursday the 
Eastern Pacific trough that helped pump the moisture earlier in 
the week will arrive and bring a weak cold front, kicking off a 
late week cooling trend.

A quick note on the tropics. As the El Nino Advisory continues, the 
National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 5 disturbances in
the Central and Eastern Pacific. While these systems rarely 
impact California directly, the residual moisture can bring 
impacts similar to the monsoon with high based thunderstorms. 
Refer to Tropical Storm Fausto, the 2020 lightning outbreak and 
subsequent wildfires for a good example of this. Additionally, the
ocean swell generated from these storms can bring hazardous beach
conditions. While there is no immediate threat, there is a high 
chance for an active hurricane season in the Pacific and we'll be 
watching closely for these impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A mix of high and mid level clouds are passing over head today, 
thanks to the moisture tap. Radar depicts a few elevated showers 
throughout the region and over the coastal waters, which could lead 
to a brief stint of light drizzle or rain with better chances of 
virga due to the dry layer at 700mb and below. There is also a less 
than 10% chance for elevated thunderstorms; but confidence is too 
low to add anything for a TAF site. VRF conditions will generally 
prevail. 

Vicinity of SFO...Mid to high based clouds and elevated showers will 
continue to pass over the region. Light winds have started their 
daily shift, and will gradually become southwesterly to onshore 
later this afternoon and into the evening. The seabreeze will return 
bringing 10-15kt winds before easing a bit overnight. Tomorrow, a 
similar forecast this morning is in store for Wednesday morning. The 
most notable change for late Wednesday morning will increasing 
onshore winds between 18-20Z to about 10-15kt, with gusts to 25kt 
starting around 21Z. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. 


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light winds, high clouds, and elevated 
showers will pass over the region today. A mix of light rain showers 
and virga will be possible, with most locations remaining dry until 
the profile moistens up. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. 
&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Moderate to fresh north-northwest winds across the northern outer
waters continue with hazardous conditions, along with moderate
northwest swell. Northerly winds over the coastal and outer waters
become fresh to strong mid to late week, with near gale force
gusts. Expect building seas in response to the increasing winds
and long period southerly swell late week into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 448 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Warming temperatures this will cause fuel moistures to plummet for
the first half of the week. At the same time we are tracking 
monsoonal moisture moving across the area and any threat of dry 
thunderstorms today and Tuesday. While dry thunderstorms have a 
10% or less chance of development, any strike can start a fire. 
Not to mention, in and around active thunderstorms, winds can 
become gusty and erratic. For more information on the thunderstorm
threat, see discussion above.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ503-504-506-
     510-513>517-528.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ516-517.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jul 13 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service