FXUS66 KMTR 110500
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Sharp cool-down through early week
- Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell through
Monday
- Beach Hazards until Monday evening
- Very light rain possible southernmost Monterey County Sunday-
Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)
Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite fascinating as you can
see the upper level troughing moving into northern California, while
Tropical Storm Rachel moves towards Baja California. Visible
satellite imagery shows some high clouds from TS Rachel starting to
infiltrate the southern most skies in the Central COast while the
majority of the region observes mostly clear skies due to drier air
that has worked into the region. Though a few areas are still seeing
some stratocumulus clouds lingering. The forecast generally appears
to be on track as high temperatures generally sit in the upper 50s
to low 60s along the coast, the low 60s to low 70s for interior
valley locations, and the warmer temperatures, generally in the mid
70s for the thermal belts.
Tonight, skies should clear for much of the region. Coastal stratus
might try to around and south of Half Moon Bay,sneaking into the
northern Salinas Valley. Temperatures tonight will cooler than last,
with the 40s expected for most interior valley locations, and the
upper 40s to low 50s for those near the coast or influenced by the
stratus. Some higher elevations in the Diablo and Gabilan Ranges,
the Cholame Hills, Sierra de Salinas, and Santa Lucia could see
lows dip into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing continues to dominate the
weather. Unseasonably cool high temperatures are forecast for the
entire region, generally ranging from 5 to 15 degrees below their
normals. Sunday looks to be dry for much of the period. Some showers
might try to sneak up into southern Monterey and perhaps even into
southern San Benito counties late Sunday into Monday morning. Models
from the 12Z suite still showed this, though the NBM had continued to
pull chances southward and out of the region. This continues to be
seen with the 18Z model runs, which means chances may continue to
trend south of our region. For now, kept the 15-40% chance of rain
in the grids, favoring the Santa Lucia and Monterey/San Luis Obispo
county lines. Precip amounts continue to be light and have trended
to 0-0.05".
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Monday through next Friday)
Upper level troughing slowly exits the region on Tuesday as an
eastern Pacific High builds. One more day of cooler weather is
expected, though temperatures should be several degrees higher than
Monday. As upper level ridging moves in Wednesday and is then
expected to hold through the end of the work week with cluster
analysis supporting ridging into the weekend. Warmer and more
seasonal weather is expected for mid week, with above normal
temperatures expected for the weekend. Currently, no record high
temperatures are at risk of being broken.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
MVFR ceilings already developed at HAF and MRY which is expected to
be followed by SNS later tonight. Conditions are expected to improve
early Sunday morning at these terminals. Everywhere else should
remain VFR through the TAF cycle with a few to scattered
stratocumulus decks. Light winds prevail overnight before increasing
to moderate (10 to 15 kt) by Sunday afternoon. Low confidence for
MVFR ceilings to return Sunday evening at coastal terminals,
moderate confidence for VFR to continue to prevail elsewhere.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with potential for some
scattered decks overnight. These are expected to be short-lived,
therefore they were not mentioned in the official TAF. Lower chance
for gusty onshore winds Sunday afternoon as winds shift southwest to
southerly post-sunset. Medium confidence on the exact timing of wind
shifts.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions at MRY are expected to
improve by Sunday morning. Low to medium confidence on exactly when
MVFR ceilings impact SNS as they can roll in earlier than
advertised. Overall, VFR prevails late Sunday morning as onshore
winds increase to around 10-12 kt. Low confidence on whether MVFR
stratus develops Sunday evening. If anything, it may be borderline
MVFR-VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Hazardous marine conditions persist through early next week. Fresh
to strong northwest breezes are supporting rough to very rough
seas across the coastal waters. Expect frequent gale force gusts
north of Pigeon Point and near gale force gusts to the south. A
low long period southerly swell and a moderate long period
westerly swell combined with strong winds are contributing to a
confused sea state.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but
beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will
bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches.
More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long
period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will
build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell
from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive
Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings
will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are
brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high
tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to
avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your
back on the ocean!
MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Oct 10 22:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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