FXUS66 KMTR 121950
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1150 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue today
- Rain returns to the region Friday and into next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(This afternoon through Friday)
The Bay Area and north Central Coast remains placed between high
pressure extending into the Northern Rockies and a through about
450 miles to the west-northwest. Meanwhile, a cut-off low pressure
is forecast to develop in the next 12 hours and head towards
southern California and Baja California; moving inland by Friday
morning/afternoon. That said, high clouds from the approaching
weather system will be positioned over the region by this
afternoon. This, along with cooling temperatures aloft, will
result in a slight cool down compared to previous days.
Tonight and into early Friday morning, expect light to moderate
rain in the coastal ranges and favored upslope regions along the
coast ahead of the frontal boundary. Southerly winds are forecast
to increase ahead of the cold front overnight with gusts of 25 to
35 mph. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity between 8 AM
- 1 PM Friday across the North Bay, between 10 AM - 3 PM across the
Bay Area and South Bay, and 12 PM - 5 PM across the north Central
Coast. With the cold air mass advecting in from the north, surface
CAPE/most unstable CAPE values of up to 100-300 J/kg will result in
around a 15% potential for thunderstorms. Any heavier rain shower
and/or thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief heavy
downpours, strong and erratic winds, and lightning. Wind gusts have
the potential to reach or exceed 45 mph just ahead of the cold
frontal passage, but are forecast to be short lived as winds
becoming westerly and/or northwesterly in wake of the frontal
passage while also easing. These stronger winds can cause trees or
branches to fall and may result in isolated power outages.
Rain totals from this system (Friday through Saturday afternoon) are
expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (greatest in the
coastal ranges), 0.3-0.8" for the San Francisco Bay Area and
Monterey Bay region, up to 0.75-1.25" for the Santa Cruz Mountains
and the Santa Lucia Range, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of
Monterey and San Benito Counties. Post frontal rain showers are
forecast to persist into Friday evening and early Saturday morning.
Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more
information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and
Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
The storm door remains open through the 7 day forecast period! We
are expecting another system to move through the region Sunday into
Monday and a third system to arrive in the middle of the upcoming
week. These systems are not forecast to stall over any one given
area, thus reducing the potential for widespread flooding concerns.
It is a bit to far out in time to talk about thunderstorm potential
and rainfall amounts, yet current forecast do not seem much greater
than the Friday system (1st system to impact the region). Be sure to
stay informed on the latest forecast information as we the storm
door remains open.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Today is a transition day as a cold front gradually approaches.
We will see high clouds roll in through the day, then lower this
evening into tonight as southerly winds gradually strengthen. Rain
chances (up to 20%) kick in after midnight, then increase and
solidify midmorning with accompanying winds as the front moves
in.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the rest of today. Southerly winds
gradually increase through the forecast period, potentially reaching
20-25kt ahead of the front. High confidence in occurrence, but
medium confidence in exact timing of a ceiling forming tonight and
then lowering into MVFR territory around midnight as the low
pressure system nears. Up to 20% chance for rain at SFO as early
as 11z, but confidence in rain is too low to add in RA or VCSH
until 17z.
SFO Bridge Approach...The approach from SJC to SFO is currently
clear and should stay that way during the day today. A high ceiling
should form late tonight and is expected with moderate confidence to
lower below 5000ft around midnight.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period as a developing cold front begins to
push through our area to the north, eventually reaching the
Monterey Bay terminal just outside the end of the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1019 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Fresh to strong southerly winds will increase to near gale force
overnight into Friday morning as a cold front pushes through our
area. After the front passes winds will shift to westerly and
decrease to a moderate breeze by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile WNW
swell from a distant hurricane force low will build to very high
with significant wave heights up to 25 feet by Saturday morning.
Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before another round of high
seas moves into the coastal waters on Monday. Small crafts will
sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these extreme sea
states.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which
point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday.
A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE
Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high
NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions.
Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker
waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15-
20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking
waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are
likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate
somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives
Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Thursday through Friday):
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM
Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday
11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will
enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies
up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-
period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific
coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip
currents.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast.
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20%
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly
during high tide.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST
Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday
for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kummel
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 12 12:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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