FXUS66 KMTR 020544
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
944 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
- Less fog and stratus today, even less tomorrow.
- Inside slider promotes gusty offshore flow Wednesday morning
across North Bay, Bay Area, and Santa Cruz Mtns. Gusts to 45
mph possible in higher terrain. Limited fire weather concern
thanks to high fuel moisture.
- Quiet and dry after midweek into the weekend. Still looking
like the next chance for a meaningful pattern change is around
the middle of the month.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region with
lingering spillover from the Tule fog present in the far interior
reaches of southeastern Santa Clara and eastern San Benito
Counties. The North Bay is seeing wisps of high-level clouds, the
forerunners of a stream of clouds moving southwards over southern
Oregon and northern California. This feature will disrupt the
radiational cooling expected tonight, the question is how much,
and will it be enough to keep the Tule fog, in addition to patches
of fog in the Bay Area valleys from forming tonight? The latest
runs of the high resolution models suggest that it won't be enough
with the fog returning to the interior Bay Area valleys through
the night. Nevertheless, the night shift will monitor the
developing situation overnight and assess the need for a Dense Fog
Advisory as needed. No other changes to the forecast at this time.
DialH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)
Less cloudiness for most places today thanks to a weak upper level
disturbance and a light push of offshore winds overnight. This
helped dry the low-to-mid levels and provide enough mixing aloft
to aid in a quicker clearing to clear skies today. Some areas
still holding on to fog and low clouds in far eastern Contra Costa
and Alameda counties bordering the central valley. We can expect
this trend to continue into Tuesday with dryer and in place,
resulting in temps a couple of degrees warmer than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
By Tuesday night we'll start to see a deep upper low digging into
the Great Basin in what appears as an inside slider. Surface high
pressure building in northern NV in the wake of this system
promotes a strong offshore oriented pressure gradient that will
result in gusty offshore winds. Winds set to increase going into
Tuesday night, increasing through early Wednesday morning and
peaking sometime by noon Wednesday. We're anticipating NE winds
25-35 mph with potential gusts to 40 mph across the North Bay,
East Bay Hill, and Santa Cruz Mtns. Some potential for isolated
gusts to 50 mph along the higher ridgetops of the interior North
Bay. Things will certainly dry out with this burst of offshore
flow, but we aren't expecting RH to get below the 30-40% range for
most. Isolated areas at highest elevations in the interior North
Bay may see RH as low as 25-30% Wednesday. Despite the gusty and
dry conditions, fuel moisture should mitigate most fire weather
concerns thanks to productive rainfall in early November. Beyond
the middle of the week, things look much quieter and a return to a
benign pattern with the ridiculously resilient ridge (RRR)
dominating through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Only high clouds
in the sky, but visibilities are starting to drop at some terminals.
Generally an optimistic persistence forecast on tap. High clouds and
offshore flow should at least somewhat limit the extent in time and
space of fog/stratus.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with easterly flow. Moderate to high
confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing
through the TAF period at both terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 849 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous marine conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly
breezes increase to become fresh to strong and seas become rough
to very rough. Gale force gusts are expected over the northern
outer waters. Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly
breezes and moderate seas. Locally strong winds and rough seas
will remain possible over the far northwestern portion of the
northern outer waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1014 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025
Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening with
a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet,
with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can
be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at
times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into
tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This
combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will
increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks
and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger
in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Dec 1 22:30:03 PST 2025
From the National Weather Service
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