FXUS66 KMTR 041131
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
331 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday
- Hazardous beach conditions Thursday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery reveals a faint surface low around 50 miles off of
Point Reyes, feeding a weak band of showers that are moving through
the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay region. Slight chances of showers
are possible before sunrise, but should continue to dissipate with
the surface front becoming less and less defined. The skies should
clear by the late morning and early afternoon hours.
A look at the wider synoptic pattern reveals an upper level low
moving through the Great Basin, with a slight ridge behind it
helping to keep the large-scale flow from the northwest and keeping
fire weather concerns at bay. Morning lows range from the lower to
middle 40s in the interior valleys into the upper 40s to lower 50s
along the coast and into the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions.
Temperatures should be quite a bit warmer, especially in the North
Bay where temperatures in the inland valleys should jump from the
upper 50s to lower 60s yesterday to the upper 60s today. Upper 60s
to lower 70s are also expected across the inland valleys into the
Central Coast, while Bayshore locations hover in the middle to upper
60s and the coasts remain in the lower 60s. A breezy onshore push
should develop in the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 20
to 30 mph along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge
will cause coastal flooding concerns across Bayshore areas across
the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San
Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above
normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM today, including 1.2 ft of surge
residual. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along
the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
A warming trend is expected through the next few days with an upper
level trough building into the West Coast. Temperatures are expected
to peak over the upcoming weekend, with the inland valleys expected
to warm to the middle 70s to the lower 80s and coastal areas
hovering in the 60s.
Into the early part of next week, the temperatures will cool as the
ridge axis moves off to the east and a trough comes close to the
Pacific Northwest. Within the seven-day outlook, any rain chances
will be deflected far to our north in the Pacific Northwest and
British Columbia. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the rain chances
start to migrate southward towards central California, but at that
point, any specific details are heavily uncertain.
Coastal flooding concerns will continue through Monday with the
combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge
resulting in minor flooding in Bayshore locations along the San
Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal
gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft
MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW)
at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38
AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, and 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM
Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-
period swell Thursday through Saturday will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR. Recent rain and clear skies has allowed
radiational stratus to develop, especially across the Bay Area. Low
confidence on exact timing of clearing; however, conditions will
likely begin to improve by 14Z with VFR expected by 18Z. Easterly
winds this morning will increase and back to become northwesterly
this afternoon and evening.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with easterly flow. Low confidence
on exact timing of improving to VFR, reasonable best case scenario
is conditions begin to improve between 14Z and 15Z. Winds will
increase and back through the morning to become gusty and
northwesterly this afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. There are low clouds on the cusp of MVFR/VFR in
vicinity of the terminals. Reductions to MVFR can be expected
through 16Z as a result; however, with the layer appearing to be
thin, it may mix out earlier. Drainage winds this morning will
increase and back to become northwesterly this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
A low pressure system will dissipate through the morning, with
high pressure coming in for the weekend. Winds will become
northerly by the afternoon hours. Moderate to rough seas prevail
through the weekend. Dry conditions expected today into early
next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
Thursday through Saturday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for
sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to
16 feet. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your
back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Sunday
and Monday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards
Statement.
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST
Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 4 04:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
|