FXUS66 KMTR 290708
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1208 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
- Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
persist into the middle of the week
- Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
work week
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)
The upper level pattern over the are continues to predominately
be dominated by troughing across the western United States. This
will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through the work week.
As the main trough system shifts to the east, a short wave trough
will develop along the western periphery of the main trough
following the west coast. The short wave trough will develop into
a cut off low by Monday afternoon. Daytime highs today should be
largely similar to those seen yesterday, with perhaps a few
degrees of warming in the interior North and East Bays and a few
degrees of cooling across the warmest spots of southern Monterey
County.
The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical
tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through
Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Troughing will continue through the work week transitioning to
zonal flow for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual warming
trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the beginning
of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement towards a
ridge building up across the Western United States, with the
interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for
our region, still to be determined.
&&
..AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 915 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds will reduce into the
night, becoming light for most areas into Monday morning. Cloud
cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the late night with
MVFR CIGs, lower confidence in any MVFR cigs around the San
Francisco Bay. This cloud cover erodes into the mid morning on
Monday, leading to widespread VFR again.
Vicinity of SFO...Mainly VFR through the TAF period with lower
confidence in any CIGS reaching the airport near sunrise. Gusts
cut off into the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to
become light into early Monday with breezy west winds returning
that afternoon. MVFR cigs returning sometime Monday night with
lower confidence on exact timing.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds reduce into the evening as come
low clouds begin to flow through the area. VFR this evening
transitioning into MVFR as CIGs fill over the terminals sometime
around 10-11z. These CIGs look to erode into late Monday morning
around 16-18z. MVFR cigs returning sometime Monday night with
lower confidence on exact timing.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 915 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
West to northwest winds continue to stay strong, resulting in
hazardous seas for small craft across the waters well into the
work week. Gale force gusts will continue over the northern outer
waters until early Monday morning before winds reduce some, but
will likely return by at times through the middle of the week.
Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended
forecast.
&&
.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...APR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 29 00:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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