FXUS66 KMTR 141128
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
428 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
Marine stratus continues to expand over the San Francisco Bay
Area and Central California Coast this early Saturday morning.
With the marine layer ever-so gradually deepening over the last
few days, interior locations such as Livermore and Concord are
finally realizing the marine-cooled influence where temperatures
running 4-8 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago. By sunrise,
expect the classic June stratus for many communities.
The eastern Pacific ridge has been the driving synoptic feature
for California over the last several days. This will change today
as a weak disturbance develops over NorCal, disrupting the ridge's
scope temporarily. While minimal day-to-day changes are forecast
along the coast, interior locations can expect several degrees of
cooling from Saturday to today. This will result more widespread
Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast, with
Moderate HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and very
isolated East/South Bay locations.
High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along
the low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through
the middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0
feet above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is
driven by multiple contributing factors, including Sunday's new
moon and lunar perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm
surge and thermal expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches
of sea level rise since vertical datums were established in the
1980s/1990s. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in
January (which peaked at 2.6 ft), these tides could end up being
the highest observed in the summer, beating the current record of
1.7 ft from July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
(Monday through Saturday)
Eastern Pacific ridge will attempt to re-establish itself on
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in some interior locations may
subtly nudge upward as a result, but nothing that reintroduces new
HeatRisk categories -- still anticipating widespread Minor to
locally Moderate. The ordinary marine status should continue to
blanket the usual spots through much of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Satellite shows widespread coastal stratus /IFR-LIFR/ including an
inland intrusion of stratus /MVFR-IFR/. Inland stratus will mix out
to VFR by late morning. Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ moves inland
tonight and Monday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is nearby and based on model
guidance it'll develop at SFO this morning. Stratus mixes out 17z
today and redevelops early Monday morning. West to northwest wind
5 to 15 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is in the approach and is
forecast to mix out to VFR by 17z today. Stratus redevelops late
tonight and Monday morning.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is nearing SJC Airport
with a tempo ceiling forecast 12z-16z today. VFR for the remainder
of the day to tonight then stratus will be nearby Monday morning.
For OAK Airport, stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is forecast to prevail to 18z
today. VFR for the remainder of the day to mid evening. Stratus
/IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR-LIFR/ until late morning,
VFR this afternoon then stratus /IFR/ redevelops and moves inland
this evening. Stratus prevails tonight and Monday morning. Mainly
onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Gentle southerly breezes and moderate to rough seas with a low
south-southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal
waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas
subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern
outer waters towards the middle of the week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-
530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 14 08:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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