FXUS66 KMTR 210013
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
413 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
- Mainly dry on Saturday, with northern Sonoma County having a 15-
40% chance of rain.
- Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying
to sag into the North Bay .
- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through the long
term forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
An upper level disturbance passes over the region today which
brought isolated rain showers this morning and left cloudy skies
for the afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure builds over the
intermountain west today, while a deep upper level low from the
Gulf of Alaska digs into the Eastern Pacific. Flow becomes a bit
more zonal on Saturday, which may lead to showers skirting
portions of Sonoma County and a mix of sun and clouds throughout
the rest of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, nudging the
aforementioned upper level low to the north some. This should keep
much of the region dry on Sunday, with rain chances being confined
to the North Bay. This patter looks to hold until Monday, before the
ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. The upper level will
tap into some tropical moisture, fueling our early-mid week rain
and wind. Thankfully, the system doesn't look to stall in any
regions, which will alleviating a pro-longed flood concern. Given
recent rains, shallow landslides are possible as well as minor
flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Ponding of
water and slick roadways are a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding
is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of
occurrence. Saturated soils, mean there is also a chance for
downed trees with any stronger gusts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
VFR continues through the TAF period. Winds remain light and
southeasterly to locally variable overnight. Winds strengthen to
around 10 knots, becoming more southerly, as early as 12Z before
winds strengthen further around 18-20Z. Gusts between 20 to 25 knots
will become more likely across the North Bay, Bay Shoreline, and
potentially MRY/SNS tomorrow afternoon and evening. High clouds
persist across the board with some potential for mid-level (still
VFR) clouds overnight across the Bay Area.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Winds become more southerly and strengthen
through the TAF period with gusts increasing Saturday afternoon into
the evening. Highest confidence in 20-25 knot gusts developing after
00Z on Sunday. High clouds persist through the TAF period. Mid-level
clouds develop overnight but are not expected to lower below 3000 ft.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. High level clouds persist through the
TAF period. Onshore winds will ease and become locally variable
overnight. Winds shift more southerly to southwesterly during the
day on Saturday with winds strengthening to 10-15 knots. There is
some potential for gusts between 20-25 knots late tomorrow
afternoon/evening but confidence is low to moderate at this time as
high resolution guidance was not fully in favor of this scenario.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 958 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
Winds will shift to southerly and increase over the weekend, the
strongest winds across the northern waters with gale force gusts
by Saturday afternoon. As a result, rough to very rough seas
redevelop by late weekend into early next week. Rain chances
return late Saturday and continue into early to mid next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026
The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites
for Friday, Feb 20th.
Location Record Low
Santa Rosa 26 in 1913
Kentfield 27 in 1913
San Rafael 32 in 2018, 2006
Napa 27 in 2018
Richmond 35 in 1990
Livermore 27 in 2018
San Francisco 38 in 1897
SFO Airport 36 in 2018
Redwood City 30 in 1933
Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018
Oakland Museum 36 in 2011
San Jose 30 in 1897
Salinas Airport 28 in 1953
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ504-
506-510-513-515-528.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ514-
516>518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt
Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 20 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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