Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 010959
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
159 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the week

 - Minor coastal flooding today during high astronomical tide for
   bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay,
   and Monterey Bay

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday at Pacific Coast
   beaches

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 158 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
(Today and tonight)

Fog has been observed overnight in the North Bay and East Bay 
Interior Valleys. High clouds streaming in from a dying cold front 
are adding complexity to the fog forecast both in terms of viewing 
it from space via satellite as well as seemingly not letting it get 
widespread like initially thought. Still, if you are driving this 
morning, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty 
of distance ahead of you. The aforementioned cold front will be the 
main feature today. Rain can be seen to the north on our neighbor 
Eureka's radar, but this is not expected to hold together down here. 
Instead, what we can expect is a pause in the warming trend, a 
return of onshore flow, and an extra colorful sunrise/sunset from 
the cloud shield. One more round of minor coastal flooding is 
expected during high astronomical tide this morning for bayshore 
locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey 
Bay. Hazardous beach conditions continue at Pacific Coast beaches, 
read more in the BEACHES section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 158 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

A warming trend commences Monday and peaks Wednesday as longwave 
upper-level ridging builds into place and sets up its axis over the 
region. Sensible weather wise, this will result in temperatures of 
10 degrees above normal. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement 
that the aforementioned ridge will begin to get shoved east on 
Thursday by upper-level shortwave troughing that will skirt the 
region Friday into Saturday. This will relatively cool temperatures 
with no rain in the official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

500 mb high pressure system over our forecast area will steadily 
weaken tonight and Sunday. Conditions favor VFR with exception of 
patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ and areas of coastal stratus and fog
/LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR except tempo IFR stratus ceiling 12z-16z
Sunday. Mainly light and variable tonight and Sunday morning then
northwest near 10 knots Sunday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 15 knots 
with a few gusts to 20 knots possible in the Salinas Valley late 
tonight and Sunday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday 
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 848 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday morning and persist
through Monday with seas building to become rough across the
outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to
strong. Conditions improve Tuesday with moderate seas and a gentle
northerly breeze prevailing through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this 
     afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 1 02:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service