FXUS66 KMTR 110747
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next
week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions return later this week with
dangerous conditions this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(Tonight through Thursday)
Areas of low clouds and fog redevelop tonight then it'll turn
mainly sunny Wednesday. Clouds will then increase over our
forecast area Wednesday night and continue mainly cloudy Thursday.
It'll be dry Thursday except model forecasts do show a little
light measurable drizzle or light rain developing closest to the
coastline by later Thursday, with better chances for wet weather
Thursday night.
Before discussing the long term weather, there is a trough of low
pressure from the Pacific Northwest to our west that'll split and
have little impact on our weather. The southern split energy will
merge with the subtropical jet stream and remain well to our south.
It's important to mention the passage of this low since it will free
the mid-latitude westerlies and polar jet stream to send a series
of well structured cold fronts (2 to 3) to move our way late in
the week and through early next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Farther upstream there is good agreement in the global models
that strong polar jet stream winds and a low center will undergo
rapid, deep cyclogenesis south of the Aleutian Islands tonight
through Wednesday. During this time the surface cold front is
forecast to move upwards to 50 mph to 70 mph, very fast for a cold
front. Dangerously high swell will develop with this low and
become a factor here with dangerous and potentially damaging high
surf in our forecast area by late Friday and Saturday. Beach
Hazards will precede the arrival of the high surf.
On the heels of this low pressure system, another low is forecast
to undergo rapid, deep development Thursday into Friday. Both of
these system's cold fronts will approach and move across our
forecast area (though less quickly vs initial rapid development).
The first cold front reaches our area with rain and wind Friday,
the next cold front arrives with rain and wind Sunday into Monday.
The first specific low center will reach the Pacific Northwest,
the second low will reach the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia
late in the week and weekend respectively. Given how much strength
is showing up in the upstream pattern, it is good that the low
centers are forecast to pass by far to our north vs much closer to
the Bay Area and north Central Coast. Bottom line, a very busy week
is ahead with a quickly moving pattern and beneficial rain. Expect
the rain and wind to affect Friday's commute. Since the upstream
pattern is evolving very quickly, something to keep in mind is e.g.
the first cold front may arrive sooner than the models calculate.
Will soon be looking into and messaging about winds as well as high,
damaging surf ahead for late week and weekend. Please stay tuned to
the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Stratus and fog have developed tonight along the Bay
Area Coast and has started to seep inland. The most expansive
develop has occurred in the Sonoma Valleys and continues to track
inland. Look for IFR and LIFR cigs and vis to develop for terminals
in the North Bay and KHAF, with more IFR cigs being possible around
San Francisco Bay. Cigs and vis clear out by mid to late morning,
with light winds and VFR conditions prevailing through the evening.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions should prevail through the
overnight hours, with fog and stratus holding on the west side of
the SFO range ring. Models suggest IFR fog and low clouds move in
around 10Z and then hold through mid to late morning. Then VFR
conditions return.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The forecast is on repeat tonight. VFR
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds
will remain offshore tonight, then will shift onshore after sunrise
and will shift back to offshore after sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 916 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will persist over the
coastal waters through Tuesday night. Southerly winds develop
late Wednesday night out ahead of a deepening area of low
pressure. Winds increase fresh to near gale by Friday, with gale
force gusts expected for at least the near shore waters. The
increasing winds will lead to steep fresh swell with a moderate
sea state prevailing through midweek, deteriorating further late
Friday and continuing into the beginning of next week as
west/northwest swell builds with a longer period. Mariners with
plans late in the week through the weekend should monitor the
forecast with dangerous conditions expected.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Beach Hazards:
No official Beach Hazard in effect. However, latest buoy reports
still show a dynamic marine environment. Moderate periods will
still make for an energetic surf zone today. Expect another round
of Beach Hazard Statements midweek as longer period swells return.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected to return to the coast later
this week with dangerous conditions forecast for the weekend. A
series of storms within the north Pacific are resulting in a dynamic
fetch scenario, where favorably aligned waves along a storm track
continue to build as the storm advances. This will result in a very
high swell of 20 to 25 feet at 17 to 18 seconds arriving in the
coastal waters late on Friday into Saturday. Surf heights are
expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves
at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. A High Surf Warning
this weekend for the Pacific coast is likely. The incoming swell
will also result in a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
Sneaker waves can sweep unaware beachgoers into the water while rip
currents can pull even the strongest swimmers offshore. All these
factors combined will make it a very dangerous day at the beach, and
we strongly advise all people to stay away from the beach during the
weekend.
When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety.
Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to
avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM
Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM
Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
DialH/Flynn/MM/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 11 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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