FXUS66 KMTR 151740
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
940 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
- Rain arrives today through Monday
- High surf conditions through Tuesday morning
- Impactful system arriving Wednesday through Thursday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
Light to occasionally moderate rain has moved into the North Bay
as a cold front continues to approach the region. Rain is likely
to persist through about 1 PM this afternoon. The frontal boundary
will approach the Bay Area and Santa Cruz Mountains between 1 PM
and 7 PM and then the remainder of the Central Coast beyond 7 PM.
As mentioned in the earlier forecast discussion, areas of the East
Bay, South Bay, and north Central Coast are likely to see steady
rain during the Monday morning commute. Additionally, post-frontal
rain showers are expected to persist through the early afternoon
across all of the region. No changes anticipated this morning as
the ongoing forecast remains on track.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Today and Monday)
High clouds are streaming over the Bay Area and Central Coast.
These are precursors to a frontal band of rain stemming from a low
that is situated off the coast of British Columbia. A glance at
the radar returns from Eureka shows a preview of what we can
expect, namely a period of steady if rather light rain coming
through while an embedded narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR)
brings a burst of more intense rainfall. Later this morning, the
front should enter the North Bay and crawl southwards, coming into
the SF Bay Area in the afternoon hours and the South Bay and
Monterey Bay regions during the evening. As the front crawls
through the region, it decouples from the parent low, which
travels northward towards Alaska, and a new low forms within the
Great Basin. This might account for some of the slowing trend seen
in the high resolution models, where the steady rainfall could
linger late into the night. Areas of the interior East Bay, South
Bay, and Central Coast could very well wake up on Monday morning
to find that the steady rain continues to impact their morning
commutes. Meanwhile, scattered post-frontal showers are possible
along the coastal areas behind the front. The band of rain moves
out of the interior Central Coast Monday afternoon. Winds will
continue to flow from the south until the front passes over, when
to will switch to the northwest. Wind impacts will not be as
strong as those from last Friday's system; gusts of 20 to 30 mph
are possible along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and
at the ridgelines. Rainfall totals from this system range from
1-1.25" in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, 0.5-1" in the central SF Bay
Area, Sonoma and Marin Counties, and Santa Cruz County, 0.25-0.5"
in the interior East Bay and southern Santa Clara Valley, and the
northern parts of the Central Coast, and 0.1-0.25" in the
southern reaches of Monterey County.
Lows this morning will range from the middle to upper 40s in the
inland valleys, the upper 30s to lower 40s in the coldest spots of
the interior Central Coast, the upper 40s to lower 50s near the
Bays, and the middle 50s near the Pacific coast. Highs today will
lie in the middle to upper 60s for the lower elevations of the
Central Coast and SF Bay Area south of the Golden Gate and
Carquinez Strait, the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Bay
valleys, and the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. On
Monday, morning lows drop to the lower to middle 40s in the North
Bay valleys, while highs in the lower elevations will cool to the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
A High Surf Warning continues through 4 AM this morning, with a
High Surf Advisory extending from that time out through Tuesday
morning as breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet are still coming
through the waters. Favored breakpoints could see waves of 25 to
35 feet. These waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on
Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and
damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential
swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and
continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. Hopefully the
rainfall will discourage too much beach travel, but those who do
travel to the beach are strongly encouraged to stay away from the
water's edge, keep off of rocks, jetties, and piers, and never
turn their backs to the ocean. See the BEACHES section for more
information.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Monday night through Saturday)
A lull in the rainfall arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with
highs remaining cool across the region. Cold temperature products
(Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) are possible for
Tuesday morning, as lows in the inland valleys drop into the
middle 30s to lower 40s, which could bring dangerous conditions to
people living outdoors and sensitive plants, especially when
combined with the recent rainfall making the body feel cooler.
Another system comes into the region beginning late Tuesday and
continuing into Wednesday, Thursday, and potentially early Friday.
This system is looking to be more impactful than the previous
two. On one hand, the associated low pressure system is expected
to slow down as it approaches California. The frontal rain band
would thus move slower as well, allowing for more rainfall to
accumulate at any particular location. On the other hand, as the
low comes into the state, it brings with it a strong jet at the
500 mb level that's aimed at the northern half of California.
Model guidance suggests that the jet could bring winds of 60 to 70
knots aloft as it comes across the SF Bay Area and Central Coast.
This would support wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the valley
floors and raise the possibility of Wind Advisories for the
coastal, Bayshore, and higher elevation regions. In addition, with
prior rainfall from the systems that came before the midweek
system arrives, flooding concerns will increase as soils saturate
and creeks and streams reach bankfull. This is in addition to a
model trend of remarkably higher rainfall totals across the region
from this system compared to the one we saw last Friday and the
one that's expected to arrive today. Although there's still time
for the final rain total to fluctuate, the current forecast
suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across much of the Bay Area and
Central Coast while the coastal ranges see 3 to 5 inches of rain.
As a final note, the chance for thunderstorms has also continued
to increase and probabilities reach as high as 20-30% during
Wednesday and Thursday. The synoptic setup would favor convective
activity with a cold core low right over or very close to the Bay
Area and Central Coast, robust moisture flow, and the combination
of frontal and terrain-driven lift.
The weather pattern remains active towards the end of, and
beyond, the seven day outlook, with a lean towards precipitation
totals above seasonal averages into the final week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions as a cold front approaches from
the N. Since the 12Z TAFs slowed down onset timing of rain at
most terminals with transition to VCSH or -SHRA early Monday.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to VFR CIGs through this afternoon with
rain onset 20-22Z. Gradual improvement by Monday AM rush. VFR
Monday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for most of the day with precip
arriving after 04-06Z. Enhanced SE flow for SNS through the period
as the front approaches.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 849 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
Another cold front will move through the coastal waters bringing
unsettled weather with scattered light rain showers.
Northwesterly moderate to fresh winds develop behind the front
this evening. Very hazardous marine conditions and high northwest
seas persist through early Tuesday morning, with significant wave
heights between 15 to 20 feet. Seas subside slightly on Tuesday
before building again by Wednesday. This coincides with when a
strong low pressure system moves into the coastal waters resulting
in widespread rain, near gale to gale force winds, and potential
for thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
A High Surf Advisory is in effect now through Tuesday morning.
Long period swells 12 to 16 feet high at 14 to 16 seconds are
still coming through the coastal waters. Through the Advisory
period, breaking waves of 20-25 feet are expected with occasional
sets of 25-35 feet likely at favored breakpoints, including
Mavericks Beach. These waves are less energetic than the ones we
saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and
damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential
swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and
continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. The risk of
drowning remains high. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on
the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on
the ocean.
DialH
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 15 10:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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