FXUS66 KMTR 102215
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
215 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next
week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions return later this week with
dangerous conditions this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(This evening through Wednesday night)
The short term weather pattern is dominated by a developing ridge
axis over the northern Rockies with a series of storms lurking over
the northern Pacific. For the time being, the ridge influence will
win out and temperatures remain warmer than the seasonal average
across the region. High temperatures today and into Veteran's Day
range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys,
the 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the
Pacific coast. Wednesday's morning lows range from the middle to
upper 40s in the interior valleys to the lower to middle 50s along
the Bays and into the coastal regions, possibly into the 60s along
portions of the Big Sur Coast. Winds will remain light to gentle
through the near term with a gentle onshore breeze possible at the
coastal regions. High resolution models are showing some possibility
of low clouds across the lower elevations of the North Bay and near
the San Francisco Bay. However, they also showed a similar pattern
for this morning's cloud cover, and the observed cloud cover ended
up underperforming the model projections. Thus, confidence in the
model output is low to moderate.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(Thursday through next Monday)
Temperatures will dip a little on Thursday as the north Pacific
storms edge into the West Coast, but remain above the seasonal
averages for this time of year, with highs in the 70s for the inland
valleys.
A pattern change will bring bouts of rain for Friday into the early
part of next week as a series of storms move through the region.
Most of the rainfall from these systems is targeted at the Pacific
Northwest into the North Coast. For the Bay Area and Central Coast,
the impacts are not expected to be as severe, at least for the
initial rounds. The model solutions are converging onto two systems
coming through the region within the seven-day outlook. The first
system comes through beginning on Friday morning and comes through
into the night with lingering showers into Saturday. Rain totals
from this system are expected to be around 0.3-0.8" for the North
Bay, 0.2-0.5" for the SF Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big
Sur coast, and 0.1-0.3" for the inland portions of Monterey and San
Benito Counties. A second system comes through Sunday into Monday,
and while the rain totals are still being refined, the pattern looks
to be broadly similar to Friday's system.
With it being so early in the rain season, potential flooding
concerns will be minimal with the main impact being slick roadways.
The possibility of strong gusty winds is also worth keeping an eye
on. While wind gusts are not expected to reach Advisory criteria at
this time, gusts of 25 to 35 mph can cause trees or branches to fall
and may result in isolated power outages. Beyond the seven-day
outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall
totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will
need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the
possibility for landslides through the next week.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected to return to the coast later
this week with dangerous conditions forecast for the weekend. A
series of storms within the north Pacific are resulting in a dynamic
fetch scenario, where favorably aligned waves along a storm track
continue to build as the storm advances. This will result in a very
high swell of 20 to 25 feet at 17 to 18 seconds arriving in the
coastal waters late on Friday into Saturday. Surf heights are
expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves
at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. A High Surf Warning
this weekend for the Pacific coast is likely. The incoming swell
will also result in a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
Sneaker waves can sweep unaware beachgoers into the water while rip
currents can pull even the strongest swimmers offshore. All these
factors combined will make it a very dangerous day at the beach, and
we strongly advise all people to stay away from the beach during the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Much less aviation impacts this morning as a result of weak offshore
flow. Still seeing transient LIFR for the N Bay Valleys, but
elsewhere currently VFR. There is a small area of CIGs/FG
developing near HWD. Some guidance spreads this S to SJC and NW
for OAK/SFO. Conf is pretty low on this occuring. TAF forecast has
trended to be more optimistic. Currently have a tempo for dense
fog at OAK, but may need to remove that soon if CIGs aren't
spreading NW. VFR this afternoon. Guidance suggests another
fog/cig event again tonight, but given guidance performance this
AM less inclined to fully go with it. Low conf forecast for this
AM.
Vicinity of SFO...Trended forecast to VFR today. Will bring in
some to IFR late tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with drainage flow. Onshore this
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 926 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes continue over the coastal
waters through Tuesday night. Southerly winds develop midweek out
ahead of a deepening area of low pressure. Winds increase fresh
to near gale by Friday a the deepening low pressure approaches.
The increasing winds will lead to steep fresh swell. A moderate
sea state will prevail through midweek week, deteriorating
further late Friday and continue over the weekend as northwest
swell builds with a longer period. Mariners with plans late in the
week should monitor the forecast the next few days as dangerous
conditions are expected next weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Beach Hazards:
No official Beach Hazard in effect. However, latest buoy reports
still show a dynamic marine environment. Moderate periods will
still make for an energetic surf zone today. Expect another round
of Beach Hazard Statements midweek as longer period swells return.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected to return to the coast later
this week with dangerous conditions forecast for the weekend. A
series of storms within the north Pacific are resulting in a dynamic
fetch scenario, where favorably aligned waves along a storm track
continue to build as the storm advances. This will result in a very
high swell of 20 to 25 feet at 17 to 18 seconds arriving in the
coastal waters late on Friday into Saturday. Surf heights are
expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves
at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. A High Surf Warning
this weekend for the Pacific coast is likely. The incoming swell
will also result in a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
Sneaker waves can sweep unaware beachgoers into the water while rip
currents can pull even the strongest swimmers offshore. All these
factors combined will make it a very dangerous day at the beach, and
we strongly advise all people to stay away from the beach during the
weekend.
When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety.
Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to
avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM
Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM
Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
DialH/Flynn/MM/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 10 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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