FXUS66 KMTR 080531
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
931 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the
upcoming week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
The short term forecast remains on track. An approaching weak cold
front will deepen low level clouds through the overnight hours. The
increased moisture flux from these clouds will cool day time
temperatures tomorrow slightly. Similar to yesterday, the more
notable change is in the long term forecast. The window for
widespread rain opens next Friday into the weekend.
Navarrete
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s near
the coast with gradual warming as you move inland away from the
coast. Meanwhile, the interior valleys are forecast to reach into
the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior Central Coast as
sunny skies prevail. This is some 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle
to moderate offshore flow will persist through the night in the
higher elevations before diminishing by Sunday afternoon. All of
this is ahead of a cold front that is forecast to push inland
across Northern California by Sunday morning and potentially
making its way into the North Bay by the afternoon and early
evening hours. However, as the front weakens, no measurable
rainfall is expected across the North Bay. Temperatures on Sunday
will be similar to those this afternoon, yet the incoming front
passing to our north may result in increased cloud cover across
the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for
safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement
and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Not much has changed in the extended forecast. High pressure will
rebuild in wake of the exiting trough across the Pacific
Northwest from Tuesday through Thursday, maintaining afternoon
temperatures up to 10-15 deg F above early-November climatological
norms by Wednesday. Mid-to-upper level troughing remains forecast
to deepen as it approaches the West Coast as early as Thursday.
This is being depicted by ensemble models and clusters late next
week and into the following weekend. However, their remains a
great deal of uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system
and its available moisture source. For now, enjoy the warm
weather that is forecast to persist through midweek, just be
mindful of the coastal hazards! Also, check back for next week's
rain chances and their impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 930 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR. The 00Z sounding observed a marine layer of 850
feet. With an incoming cold front, ceilings likely won't lower
overnight with the accompanying lift. As such, somewhat
optimistic forecast on tap with moderate to high confidence in
MVFR ceilings returning to all terminals tonight with higher
confidence for the Bay Area than the Central Coast. Conditions
will begin to improve by 16Z if not earlier. Diurnal winds will
prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate
confidence on an MVFR ceiling developing at the terminal tonight.
With a compressed marine layer, stratus will need to expand across
the bay for the terminal to get it; thus, the arrival time will
likely be late around 09Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...SJC is on the brink of observing an MVFR
ceiling. This will likely expand in all directions overnight.
Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z if not earlier with clearing
from north to south.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in MVFR
ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. Limiting factor will
likely be drainage flow as it will bring in drier air and keep
stratus out over the Monterey Bay. Diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 810 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail, with bays
remaining more sheltered. Rough to very rough seas will create
hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner and outer
waters through Monday. Seas begin to subside Tuesday and winds
will back through the day Wednesday to become southerly.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and
have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will
remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such,
large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be
possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced
swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the
ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but
longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast
late next week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday
11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5
ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft
above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal
(7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up
to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay,
respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 22:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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