Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 281900
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1200 PM PDT Thu May 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026

 - Cool, unsettled weather continues today

 - Slight chance of thunderstorms through mid-afternoon for 
   southern South Bay and Central Coast

 - Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1158 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026
(This afternoon through Friday)

Rain showers prevail across the Central Coast this afternoon with a 
10-20% probability of thunderstorms. However, the widespread cloud 
cover across this region may limit the amount of surface heating and 
thus limiting surface based CAPE. However, we are still expecting 
around 100-200 J/kg of CAPE through this afternoon and early evening 
across the Central Coast. As the mid/upper level and surface lows 
shift inland late this evening and into tonight, drying conditions 
are expected to return to the region. However, cannot rule out some 
very light rain across the North Bay and Bay Area tonight into 
Friday morning, yet rainfall amounts generally will be less than 
0.05". 

Dry weather is expected on Friday as the mid/upper level low 
continues to shift eastward. Thus, expecting maximum temperatures on 
Tuesday to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast and 
adjacent inland valleys and upper 60s to middle 70s in the most 
interior areas with a mix of sun and clouds. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1158 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

A gradual warming and drying trend will kick off this weekend and 
continue into early next week as more of a zonal flow develops over 
the Bay Area and Central Coast. By the weekend after this one, a 
trough of low pressure is being picked up in the clusters. Thus, 
looks to be a progressive pattern with no strong ridging expected
in the extended forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026

Mixed bag across the terminals this morning thanks to a passing
system across the region. Bay Area and N Bay terminals are seeing
signs of SCT to clearing out while SJC and Monterey Bay area are
still experiencing -RA with lower CIGs. Conditions will gradually
improve through out the day across all terminals as the low
pressure exits the area. Some residual moisture will lingering
keeping mainly VFR to occasionally MVFR CIGs. Lower conf portion 
of the forecast are the winds. Since the low is spinning directly 
over the region they'll be switching/shifting through out the 
day.

Vicinity of SFO...Challenging start given wet runways and SE flow.
Cams show some blue sky arriving with drying on the ground, but SE
flow will persist. 18Z TAF will hold onto to the SE flow through
at least this afternoon before switching westerly late this
afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain, lower CIGs, and BR/FG will impact
SNS and MRY though this afternoon. Gradual clearing expected later
today with VFR early tonight. As cooling overnight commences MVFR
CIGs are likely to redevelop. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 905 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026

A weak system moving through the region today will bring light to
moderate winds with lingering showers through the day. Moderate
to fresh northwest winds develop Friday, then strong to near gale
force northerly winds return over the weekend and continue into
next week. Rough seas persist across the outer waters while seas
abate to moderate in the inner waters. Wave heights build as winds
restrengthen with wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1125 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through 10 PM this 
evening for beaches from Sonoma through Monterey counties. A long
period swell will result in a energetic surf zone today. Latest
buoy obs show a longer period of 18-22 seconds entering the
coastal waters. The longer period will produce increased risk of 
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. It goes without saying,
but stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 28 12:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service