FXUS66 KMTR 251657
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
- Warmer and drier conditions for the next few days
- Cooler conditions this upcoming weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
No changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Low clouds will
linger through much of the day with temperatures reaching the mid
60s across the North Bay and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere
(especially across the interior Central Coast) as high pressure
builds in from the south. There is some potential for low clouds to
become scattered by late afternoon and into the evening before low
ceilings return overnight. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains
on track. Please see the previous forecast discussions below for
additional details.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Today and tonight)
Scattered to widespread showers linger across topographically
favored regions of the Bay Area and into Santa Cruz County, the
remnants of a moisture plume impacting the state. Shower coverage is
expected to diminish through the morning hours with isolated showers
possible across terrain-favored areas of the South Bay and Central
Coast this afternoon. Additional rainfall totals are nothing to
write home about. At best, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in
the southeast-facing coastal slopes from Marin County down through
western Santa Cruz County, in addition to the Berkeley Hills. In
addition, areas of mist and fog are possible this morning in the
wake of the rainfall, with the focus on the valleys of the North
Bay, South Bay, and interior East Bay. Otherwise, today should be
much drier, if muggier, and kick off a warming trend that will
continue into the next few days, as high temperatures range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coastline, to
the middle 60s into the lower 70s in the interior valleys and
Monterey Bay region, and the lower to middle 70s in the Central
Coast valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Dry and warm conditions continue through the next few days with the
warmest conditions expected on Friday, when highs range from the
middle to upper 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coast to the middle to
upper 70s in the interior valleys.
The approach of a cut off low on Sunday and Monday will interrupt
this warming trend, with the low center expected to pass to the
north near Cape Mendocino and the northern tier of the state. As the
previous forecaster noted, light showers are possible but no model
output indicates anything meaningful in the region. Even the 95th
percentile rainfall totals from the NBM keeps maximum 24-hour rain
totals over the coastal ranges at a little over half an inch from
Sunday at 4 PM to Monday at the same time. Or to put it in other
words, there is only a 5% chance that the coastal ranges will see
rain totals over half an inch within a 24-hour period ending Monday
afternoon. Longer range outlooks continue to lack support for more
impactful storms but ensemble mean output fields do suggest the
possibility for a somewhat active pattern across the West Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Light rain
shower activity will continue to diminish through the morning.
Remnant low-level moisture will support low ceilings/visibilities
this morning and again tonight with MVFR conditions likely
prevailing through the TAF period. Light and diurnal winds will
prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with light southeasterly flow.
Moderate confidence on MVFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Winds will be light and diurnal.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with easterly flow at MRY
and VFR with easterly flow at SNS. SNS will likely deteriorate to at
least MVFR this morning with sub-VFR conditions prevailing through
the TAF period. Light and diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Moderate seas will prevail through the weekend. Moderate
northerly breezes will prevail through Friday, backing to become
northwesterly by the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 25 10:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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