Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 141810
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1010 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 318 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

 - Widespread rain returns tonight and continues through much of
   next week as a series of three storm systems arrive

 - Strong winds return Sunday and continue through mid-week; Wind
   Advisory likely for the Central Coast Monday into Tuesday

 - Turning much colder with mountain snow mid-week and onward

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today will be the proverbial calm before the storm. Somewhat
chilly to begin the weekend as overnight lows bottomed out in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Not expecting much in the way of
temperature rebound this afternoon with high temps struggling
to reach seasonal averages with many locations below to well 
below normal. Highs will top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s, and 
40s in the mountains. Why the temp struggle? Ample clouds 
overspreading the region ahead of the next storm system lurking on
the horizon will limit insolation during peak heating.

Speaking of the next system, lots of great details below. The 
first drop of precip is still slated for the North Bay later this 
evening. If you have outdoor activities, plans, jobs, today is 
the day to do it. The storm door opens and remains open for much 
of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
(Today and tonight)

High clouds have built in ahead of the approaching upper level 
trough. This has limited fog development so far this morning to 
pockets of the North Bay Valley and the Salinas Valley. High 
resolution guidance shows some potential for fog cover to expand 
into portions of the East Bay Valleys. The incoming high clouds 
should help keep the surface insulated enough that widespread fog 
outside of the favored valleys is unlikely. This morning will be the 
last dry day of the upcoming week as an upper level trough arrives 
and ejects the upper level ridge currently over us to the east. 
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today in part thanks to the 
incoming high clouds and thanks to a cooler air mass being advected 
in ahead of this system. Highs will largely be in the mid 50s across 
the North Bay and upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the Bay 
Area and Central Coast. Rain chances increase late this evening into 
Sunday with light rain spreading into the North Bay and along the 
coast. Rain will increase overnight Saturday into Sunday with light 
to moderate rain spreading across the rest of the Bay Area and 
Central Coast. Winds strengthen Saturday night with widespread gusts 
between 20 to 30 mph. Locally higher gusts 30 to 40 mph are expected 
across the higher terrain with some potential for locally stronger 
gusts across the Santa Lucia Range where a coastal jet looks to set 
up offshore over the marine environment. A 10-20% chance of embedded 
thunderstorms exists tonight across the marine environment and 
directly along the coastline. The highest chances will be offshore 
but there is still the potential for a thunderstorm or two to 
develop over land tonight. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

Widespread moderate to at times heavy rain will expand across the 
region Sunday morning and continue through Monday as the first of a 
series of three storms moves through the region. This first system 
will bring around 1-2" of rain to the lower elevations and 2-4" 
across the coastal mountain ranges. Locally higher totals to around 
5" are expected in the Santa Lucia Range where the heaviest rain is 
expected to occur. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is in 
effect Monday for the Central Coast and South Bay with a slight risk 
of excessive rainfall extending along the coast from the Monterey
Peninsula into southern California. High temperatures on Sunday 
will be similar to Saturday in the mid 50s to low 60s, however, 
temperatures will be noticeably cooler by Monday. Temperatures 
drop everywhere into the low to mid 50s with the portions of the 
elevated terrain staying in the 40s. At the same time, widespread 
gusts to 30 to 40 mph spread across the region on Sunday, briefly 
diminish overnight, then restrengthen during the day on Monday. 
The combination of cooler temperatures, gustier winds, and rain 
will make being outside feel much cooler than highs in the 50s 
suggest. 

The next system will arrive Monday night and continue through 
Wednesday with an additional 1-1.5" of rain expected across the 
region with an additional 2-3" across the Santa Cruz Mountains and 
Santa Lucia Range. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible with a 10-
20% chance continuing each day this week. Low level shear is much 
weaker compared to what was observed in December so rotating 
thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. This system will be much 
colder as a colder air mass from the Gulf of Alaska advects in. High 
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s while 
low temperatures drop into the 30s Tuesday morning before becoming 
more widespread Wednesday morning. Cold Weather Advisories will be 
needed for at least the North Bay Valleys and interior Central 
Coast. This is likely to extend into other portions of the Bay Area 
by late week as overnight temperatures continue to cool. Winds 
remain gusty as this next system arrive with widespread gusts 
between 30 to 40 mph expected. A Wind Advisory for 40+ mph gusts 
will be needed for portions of the Central Coast (particularly the 
Santa Lucia Range) Monday night into Tuesday where a low level jet 
will be oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Confidence is 
slightly lower that a Wind Advisory will be necessary for the rest 
of the Bay Area but cannot fully rule out the higher elevations and 
areas directly along the coastline needing one as well. Winds then 
diminish throughout the day on Wednesday. A third weaker system 
arrives Thursday and generally brings light rain, up to half an 
inch, to the region. Flooding concerns will initially start out low 
but will increase with each successive day of rainfall. While the 
heaviest rain is expected between the first two systems, any 
flooding already occurring will be made worse by the additional 
light rainfall late this week. Mainstream rivers show a low (< 10%) 
chance of minor flooding occuring at the San Lorenzo River at Big 
Trees, Pajaro River at Chittenden, and Salinas River at Spreckles. 

With the much cooler airmass moving in early this week, snow levels 
will drop to around 2000 ft (far North Bay) and to around 3000 ft 
across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. This is 
increasing the likelihood of snow across the highest peaks of Mt. 
St. Helena/Mt. Hood/Mt. Vaca, the eastern Santa Clara Hills, the 
Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan 
Range. Snow accumulations across the highest peaks will be between
2-7" with locally higher totals in the Santa Lucia Range and the 
Gabilan Range. There is the potential for some light accumulating 
snow within the Santa Cruz Mountains which may result in some 
snowfall along Highway 9 and nearby mountain communities. The 
overall snowfall forecast will continue to evolve as we get within
range of the high resolution models. As mentioned by the previous
forecaster, there is some potential for higher end snowfall 
scenarios to take place if a more convective band is able to 
develop. Make sure to stay up to date on the forecast to see how 
this forecast continues to evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected through much of the 
forecast period. High clouds will continue to stream across the 
region as a low pressure system approaches the coast late in the 
day. Looking for a delay in precipitation by about 3-6 hours 
across the board, with VCSH across the North Bay by 06Z Sunday 
which will spread inland and southward throughout the day on 
Sunday. Expecting SHRA with mostly VFR conditions with brief 
periods of MVFR (as low as IFR at times of heaviest rainfall) 
during the day Sunday. Breezy to gusty southerly winds strengthen 
into Sunday morning as light to moderate rains begin to arrive.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to VFR. Southerly winds are forecast 
throughout much of the day today with dry weather conditions. MVFR
ceilings are forecast to improve to VFR late morning to early 
afternoon and persist through early Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings 
return around or just before 12Z Sunday as light to moderate rain 
showers return to the region. Southerly winds will be on the 
increase throughout the day Sunday with periods of IFR conditions 
at times of heaviest rainfall. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to VFR. Southerly winds are 
forecast to become onshore by mid-to-late morning with a mix of 
MVFR to VFR conditions though the forecast period. Southerly winds
will increase Sunday morning ahead of the aforementioned low 
pressure system. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1008 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

A series of storm systems will move through the region starting
tonight and last through much of the week. This will bring
hazardous conditions across the coastal waters starting late this
evening. By Sunday expect periods of moderate rain while a strong
southerly breeze generates rough seas. After frontal passage winds
will shift to westerly and quickly restrengthen to fresh to
strong through mid week as a high westerly swell arrives.
Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front, and return
again in the early work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N 
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Sunday 
     for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday 
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Sunday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 14 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service