FXUS66 KMTR 112212
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
212 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Hazardous beach conditions through Friday
- Tule fog and stratus continue for the North Bay, East Bay and
South Bay
- Light rain remains possible next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
(This evening through Friday)
Clearing skies have finally returned to much of the region, aside
from the far interior East Bay and bay side areas of Marin County.
Thus, as high pressure remains in place over the Bay Area and
Central Coast, we are expecting to see temperatures reach into
the mid to lower 70s in the higher terrain and interior areas of
the Central Coast. Elsewhere, mid 50s to lower 60s can be expected
around much of the Bay Area, North Bay and East Bay this
afternoon. These areas still remain under the influence cooler
conditions observed in the Central Valley as offshore winds
persist.
Tonight, expecting another return of tule stratus and/or fog across
much the valleys in the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and areas
around the Bay Area. This is as high pressure remains parked over
the region and light to moderate offshore winds.
For Friday, temperatures will largely be above average for this time
of year, again expect for those that remain beneath the cloud cover
for much of the day. We have warmer temperatures across the board
for Friday but have largely used persistence as guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
By Saturday the ridge axis shifts to the east and gives way to more
of a zonal flow aloft. However, temperatures will still remain some
5-10 degrees (up to 15 degrees in the higher elevations) above
seasonal averages. By Sunday and Monday we should begin to see high
level clouds move into the region from the north. This will be signs
of the ridge fattening and zonal flow returning with light the
potential for light rain by Monday, especially across the North Bay
and as far south as the Bay Area. Chances linger at times through
much Friday. Again, rainfall amounts are currently forecast to be
light and not amount to much more than 0.25" through next Friday
(again for the Bay Area and points northward). Little to no rainfall
(outside of the Santa Cruz Mountains) is expected across the Central
Coast and Santa Clara Valley.
From the previous forecaster: "The most interesting development in
the forecast is in the extended long range, where there is a
moderate chance for an atmospheric river late next week. It's too
early to talk about specific impacts or timing, but the Climate
Predication Center has placed the Bay Area in a moderate risk for
both heavy precipitation and strong winds from 12/18-12/21. The
bullseye looks like far northern California, but that has been
trending south over the last few model updates."
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 937 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
Sounding like a broken record, but aviation impacts again this
morning for N, E, and S Bay Terminals due to IFR conditions
(cigs/fg). Similar to yesterday, patchy clouds were hit or miss
inside SF Bay and that is the case again this morning. N and E Bay
will be last to clear for KSTS,KAPC,KLVK. KSJC will be late
morning for clearing. Monterey Bay terminals remains VFR. For
tonight, will lean toward persistence, but as high pressure
continues to build overhead the cloud deck will become more
compressed leading to lower cigs and potential for more fog.
overall conf is moderate.
Vicinity of SFO...Feed south of the terminal drift north bringing
IFR condition. Thankfully they'll be temporary. VFR expected this
afternoon. No cigs in taf for tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Slantwise vis could be
reduced again this afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 833 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
High pressure off of the coast will maintain northerly fresh
breezes across the outer coastal waters with light to gentle
breezes near shore. Light offshore winds will continue from the
Delta to the San Francisco Bay and through the Golden Gate. A new,
long period northwesterly swell will last into this weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
Long period NW swell is causing hazardous beach conditions
through Friday. This energy brings strong rip currents, an
increased risk for sneaker waves, and large breaking waves. This
coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more
people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach
Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the
power of the ocean and never turn your back on it.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/Flynn
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Dec 11 14:30:02 PST 2025
From the National Weather Service
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