FXUS66 KMTR 060508
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
908 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
A few high to mid-level clouds continue to stream overhead as high
pressure builds over the region. The SFO-WMC pressure gradient
strengthened to -6.3 mb from -3.1 mb this time yesterday. This
will support another overnight push of offshore flow across the
higher terrain. Despite this, there is a slight chance (20%) for
fog development in the North Bay interior valleys due to
radiational cooling before sunrise.
Navarrete
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(This evening through Friday night)
Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend through the
remainder of the week as high pressure builds in from the Eastern
Pacific. As such, afternoon temperatures will be up to 2-8 deg F
above seasonal averages today in the major population centers. High
clouds will be streaming in from the northwest throughout the
afternoon and evening hours, having little effect on temperatures.
Not seeing much in the way of fog development tonight, as weak to
moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. However, cannot rule out a few pockets of
fog in the North Bay valleys early Friday morning and lingering
until the sun rises before quickly mixing out. Once again, high
clouds are forecast to stream in from the northwest on Friday
morning and then clearing out by mid-to-late afternoon. As such,
daytime high temperatures on Friday look to be a few degrees warmer
than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Weak ridging or zonal flow will persist across the region through
early next week, leading to slightly above normal temperatures. This
will be both overnight minimums and afternoon maximums. A shallow
marine layer, generally less than 1,000 feet, is forecast to return
Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching frontal
system set to move into northern California. Confidence in wet
weather conditions have stayed the same if not lessened slightly
heading into the middle of next week and beyond. Again, the ECMWF
ensemble mean shows greater than 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday
the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. While that is about normal for the
interior month, it looks to be spread out in time. However, given
the lack of confidence looking out this far in time, be sure to
check back for the latest forecast information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 907 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Currently VFR. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds
prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and drier conditions
should preclude fog/stratus development; however, there is a low
probability for radiational fog/stratus to develop. If it develops,
it'll likely be between 08Z and 20Z with the best chances 14Z to
18Z.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate to high
confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF
period.
SFO Bridge Approach...If radiational fog/stratus develops, it'll
likely initiate along the San Mateo Bridge Approach.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to continue
though the TAF period. Drainage winds will persist overnight before
veering mid morning returning the area to sea breeze conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 907 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Rough, ten foot seas will result in hazardous conditions for small
craft across the outer waters through Saturday. Very rough seas
will build into the outer waters Sunday into Monday with moderate
to rough seas across the inner waters. Moderate to fresh
northerly breezes will prevail across the inner and outer waters
with bays remaining more sheltered.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM
Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday
11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8,
1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above
normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions
include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical
tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with
an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment/Kummel
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 5 22:30:04 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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