FXUS66 KMTR 282333
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
433 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
- Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
persist into the middle of the week
- Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
work week
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
(This evening through Monday night)
The weather pattern across California is generally dominated by
troughing across the Western United States which will promote
seasonally cool temperatures along with gusty northwest winds during
the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts will reach the 20 to
30 mph range this afternoon and evening along the coast, through
gaps and passes, within the Salinas Valley, and at favored
ridgelines.
Tonight through Monday, a smaller-scale low pressure system breaks
away from the upper level trough near Oregon and travels southwards
paralleling the coast, reaching the vicinity of the SF Bay Area by
Monday afternoon. Lows on Monday morning will hover in the upper 40s
and the 50s, and some stratus development is possible along the
coast from San Mateo County southward, inland across the Monterey
bay region into the Salinas Valley and the Morgan Hill-Hollister
corridor, and portions of the East Bay west of the Berkeley-San
Leandro Hills. Daytime highs on Monday should be largely similar to
those seen today, with perhaps a few degrees of warming in the
interior North and East Bays and a few degrees of cooling across the
warmest spots of southern Monterey County.
The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical
tide. Around 0.7 feet of inundation over normally dry ground (6.49
ft MLLW) is forecast at high tide at the San Francisco tide gauge at
around 10:55 PM tonight. In addition, long-period southerly swell
will continue to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents along the Pacific coast, particularly at south and
southwest facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect through Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more
details. Never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Troughing continues to impact the region into the middle of the week
with highs in the inland valleys hovering near to around 10 degrees
below the seasonal averages, ranging in the middle 70s to the middle
80s through Thursday. A more robust marine layer could deck should
develop Monday night through Tuesday morning, and will mix out into
the afternoons before building back each evening and overnight.
The trough begins to fill in Thursday and Friday, and more zonal
flow is expected for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual
warming trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the
beginning of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement
towards a ridge building up across the Western United States, with
the interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for
our region, still to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 424 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds will reduce into the
night, becoming light for most areas into Monday morning. Cloud
cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the late night with
MVFR CIGs. This cloud cover erodes into the mid morning on
Monday, leading to widespread VFR again.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusts cut off into
the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to become light
into early Monday with breezy west winds returning that afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Winds reduce
into the evening as come low clouds begin to flow through the
area. MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals into the late night. These
CIGs look to erode into late Monday morning around 16-18z.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Strong northwest winds will continue to result in hazardous seas
for small craft across the waters well into the work week. Gale
force gusts will continue over the northern outer waters until
early monday morning before winds reduce. Long period southwest
swell will persist through the extended forecast.
&&
.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 28 18:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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