FXUS66 KMTR 152314
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
414 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive
marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast
as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should
retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will
build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning
expected tomorrow morning.
SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing
Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing
tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to
increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen
slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm
tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a
1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM
output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the
marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the
profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures
slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the
inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas.
HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor
HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the
southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions
of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central
Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice
smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent
breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated.
Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore
areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine
with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring
us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night's high tide
reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or
7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the
record for the highest water level observed during the summer season
(outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was
previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high
tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02
AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on
Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on
Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing
to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to
never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will
begin it's weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures
are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the
end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to
weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into
the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the
low pressure system is currently expected to move through our
region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will
result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for
temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high
temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low
80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore
and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global
ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return
to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for
temperatures to warm back above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus is concentrated at the immediate coast but there
are signs that the inland intrusion has begun with some expansion
observed around the Petaluma Gap and the southern Monterey Bay
region. Generally breezy onshore flow conditions continue into the
evening hours with the winds turning light overnight, as stratus
expands into the North Bay valleys, the central SF Bay, and the
Salinas Valley. There is a low confidence of stratus impacts near
LVK for the early hours of Tuesday morning, with some high
resolution models bringing stratus into the hills surrounding the
terminal. Stratus will pare back to the immediate coast through
Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon.
Low to moderate confidence that HAF scatters out briefly on Tuesday
afternoon
Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze
through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the
evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on
stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over
the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the
East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden
Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO.
May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that
forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west-
northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds
to around 15 kt continue through the evening hours. IFR stratus will
move into OAK around 03Z this evening, then move south towards SJC
over the next several hours. Stratus will dissipate through the
course of Tuesday morning, with breezy northwest winds resuming in
the afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Monitoring the stratus flow lying just to
the north of the terminals for potential early stratus impacts.
Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next several hours.
Gentle onshore winds prevail at MRY through the evening while
stronger northwest flow with gusts up to 25 kt persists at SNS. IFR
stratus will return early this evening as winds turn light, clearing
through Tuesday morning with the gentle to breezy northwest winds
resuming in the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Southerly breezes persist today transitioning to northerly this
afternoon into the night with a low south-southwesterly swell
across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to
southerly tomorrow afternoon for the southern outer waters. Fresh
to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters
tomorrow and Wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach,
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Malarkey
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 15 20:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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