FXUS66 KMTR 301138
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
338 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
- Generally pleasant conditions with temperatures remaining above
the seasonal average through the next week
- Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore for the San
Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday
- Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker
waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery shows some high level clouds streaming across the
North Bay into the SF Bay Area, spilling over from a cold front in
the northeastern Pacific associated with a low pressure system off
the coast of British Columbia. Otherwise the region remains
generally clear. Patchy fog is possible across the North Bay
interior valleys and the interior portions of Contra Costa County,
although confidence in the forecast is moderate given the stream of
high clouds which could inhibit radiational cooling across the
region. Low temperatures this morning drop into the lower to middle
40s for the interior valleys and the Bays, with lows in the upper
30s across the southern reaches of Monterey County, while the
Pacific coast sees lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Through the day, upper level ridging continues to dominate across
California, leading to clear to partly cloudy skies, seasonably warm
temperatures and light to gentle offshore flow across the region.
High temperatures across the region range from the lower to middle
60s across the North Bay and most of the SF Bay Area, into the upper
60s to the middle 70s in the South Bay and the valleys of the
Central Coast.
Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly
along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey
Bays near high tide today through Sunday, the result of a
combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the
system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not
anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the
beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that
typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco
tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.4
feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 8:34
AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical
tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)
Little change to the forecast is expected Saturday with upper level
ridging remaining across the region and temperatures continuing to
hover in the middle 60s to middle 70s inland. San Jose continues to
flirt with its daily record with a high temperature forecast of 70,
just one degree shy of tying the record high of 71 from 2015.
A trough will come through the region Sunday and Monday, with the
main impacts being to cool the South Bay and Central Coast valleys
to the middle 60s to near 70 for those two days. Rain chances
continue to trend northwards and diminish across the North Bay. The
ECMWF ensemble now shows a grand total of 0 members out of 50 with a
trace of precipitation at the Sonoma County Airport. For context,
the previous forecaster saw 2 of 50 ECMWF ensemble members showing a
trace at STS. Adding the GFS and Canadian ensemble models gives us
50 more ensemble members, none of which show any rain at STS
(compared to 2 out of 30 members for the GFS ensemble, and 4 out of
20 for the Canadian ensemble, when the previous forecaster was
writing their discussion). Still can't rule out light drizzle over
the Sonoma Coastal Range, but the chances of accumulating rain have
dropped to around 10-20% across the region.
Upper level ridging returns by Tuesday and persists into the end of
the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s
to middle 70s in the interior valleys. CPC outlooks indicate a high
likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above the seasonal
average for the 6-10 day period (February 4 to 8), and that it is
slightly more likely than not (50-60% probability) that
precipitation totals remain below the seasonal averages during that
same period. For context, downtown San Francisco typically sees
highs around 60 and rainfall totals around three quarters of an inch
during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of STS which has
been experiencing LIFR fog. Moderate to high confidence in VFR
prevailing otherwise with warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours
ago and high clouds streaming in. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. High confidence
in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will
prevail through the morning before veering to become northeasterly
this afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with
drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the
TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
Seas will continue to abate through tomorrow to become moderate.
Gentle to moderate northerly/offshore breezes will prevail through
Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday into Monday
as seas build to become rough for the inner waters and outer
waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong.
Conditions improve Tuesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 30 04:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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