FXUS66 KMTR 141843
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1143 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
- Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through
Thursday
- Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations
Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning
- Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday
- Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain
beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few
days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF
Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther
inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds
will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid-
morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our
area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their
gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases
from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be
on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively
light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the
backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday
afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening
trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain
across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of
onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface
boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud
cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly
transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday
in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during
the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed
40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still
progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more
notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above
normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern
continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week
with an increasing signal for another round of widespread
beneficial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Low level lift and ample moisture led to a strato-cu kinda day.
Onshore flow and persistent cloud feed from the Pacific will keep
a mix of MVFR (2000-3000 FT CIGS) to VFR through the 19-20Z time
period. It will take some time, but do expect mostly VFR this
afternoon with a few lingering CU. Tonight will be lower conf
given lingering low moisture increasing high level clouds. For
STS/APC did not include dense fog like this AM....thinking
increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling (10-20%
chc). For the Wed AM rush do have some MVFR CIGS returning
1500-2500 FT. Winds are forecast to increase throughout the day
into the evening before tapering down through the night. HAF is an
exception as it will maintain moderate winds with some embedded
gusts through the TAF period due to its close proximity to the
coastline.
Vicinity of SFO...Strato-cu is slow to mix out. Trending later in
the 19-20Z block for the Bay. Do expect an uptick with onshore
winds this afternoon with better clearing. Gusts 20-25 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach...Solid deck of strato-cu. May clear a little
later than SFO terminal.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual thinning of strato-cu with
similar clearing in the 19-20Z. Onshore flow will bring some MVFR
cigs back again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
High pressure off the California coast will maintain moderate to
fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Locally
stronger gusts will occur near Point Reyes and Point Sur regions.
A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late
Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas
ease into the weekend, but build again into the next work week
with some chances for rain.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MM/AN
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Apr 14 12:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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