Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 302142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
142 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

 - Pleasant, warm and dry weather continues through the next week

 - Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore for the San
   Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

 - Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker
   waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 141 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

Pleasant weather continues with warm afternoons and chilly mornings. 
High clouds continue to drift over the Bay Area and Central Coast 
which should result in a pretty sunset. Temperatures remain 10 to 15 
degrees above normal today and again on Saturday. Temperatures look 
to warm a degree or two on Saturday compared to today but this 
doesn't result in too many differences. The majority of the Bay Area 
(excluding the South Bay) will be in the 60s on Saturday. The 
Central Coast and South Bay will be warmer, in the upper 60s to mid 
70s. The warmest locations look to be in the Southern Salinas Valley 
where places like King City and Bradley stand a chance of reaching 
76/77 degrees. For anyone wondering about records, San Jose has a 
shot at tying their record (71) while the warmest locations in the 
interior Central Coast fall short of their records. King City's 
forecast high of 77 is impressive for winter, but, the daily high 
temperature record for 1/31 is a whopping 85 degrees in 1976. For 
Salinas, the forecast has them reaching 75 degrees whereas the 
record high is 79 degrees in 1976. Heading north, the downtown San 
Francisco climate site is expected to only reach 63 degrees with the 
record high being 74 degrees in 2015. We may see a few record highs 
threatened on Saturday but all in all that should only be at a 
handful of sites. It really just depends on if you're north or south 
of the South Bay.

For anyone taking advantage of the unusually warm weather and 
heading to the coast, a Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect 
through Monday morning. There is an elevated risk of rip currents 
and sneaker waves - remember never turn your back on the ocean! 
There is additionally a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect along the 
SF Bay Shoreline and Monterey Bay Shoreline for morning high tides 
on Saturday and Sunday. Any flooding that occurs will be minor and 
will nowhere as consequential as the coastal flooding experienced in 
early January. See the BEACHES section below for more information.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 141 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Over the last few days we've discussed the potential for light 
rain/drizzle across northern Sonoma County thanks to a shortwave 
trough passing through. These chances have evaporated to almost 
nothing with only a 10% chance of drizzle across the far left corner 
of Sonoma County remaining Sunday night. Any and all rain chances 
have been pushed well north of us and it is dry as a bone for the 
foreseeable future. There is the potential for rain to return around 
February 10th but confidence is low at this time. Models have 
consistently been showing rain returning at the very end of their 
runs for the last few weeks without it panning out. Suffice it to 
say, we need models to both maintain the trend of rain around the 
10th as it gets closer in time and for more ensemble members to 
forecast accumulating rain before forecaster confidence that rain 
will return increases.

While the shortwave trough won't bring us any rain, it will allow 
temperatures to cool Sunday and Monday thanks to a weakening of the 
ridge. Temperatures will drop into the 60s for most of the CWA with 
the exception being the Salinas Valley. High temperatures across the 
Salinas Valley will be cooler, but, they will still be in the low 
70s. Temperatures rise again Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to 
upper 70s as upper level ridging restrengthens. Abnormally warm 
temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday before a slight cool 
down next weekend. Morning temperatures persist in the upper 30s 
(coldest locations) to 40s/50s across the majority of the region. 
Otherwise, the forecast for the upcoming week remains similar to 
what we saw this week. Warmer than usual, drier than usual, and 
locally foggy particularly along the San Pablo Bay, the Delta, East 
Bay Valleys, and North Bay Valleys. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions have returned to all terminals this morning and will 
continue to be so through early Saturday morning. Generally light 
offshore flow this morning will become onshore by early to mid 
afternoon before easing after sunset. There is a moderate 
probability for fog at KSTS early morning on Saturday. These 
conditions are forecast to improve after about 17Z Saturday with VFR 
conditions then anticipated regionwide. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Seas will continue to abate through tomorrow to become moderate.
Gentle to moderate northerly/offshore breezes will prevail through
Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday into Monday
as seas build to become rough for the inner waters and outer
waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong.
Conditions improve Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 30 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service