FXUS66 KMTR 032324
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
324 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work
week.
- Hazardous beach conditions from late Wednesday night through
Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches.
- 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the
coastal mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)
High pressure remains firmly in control of the synoptic pattern
over the Western United States today. This has resulted in mostly
clear skies throughout the majority of the San Francisco and
Monterey Bay regions. Lingering Tule Fog is evident on GOES-West
imagery this early afternoon, confined to portions of far interior
Contra Costa County along the Delta. Most communities will wrap
the day up with about 2 to 5 deg F of warming compared to Monday.
Exception to this will be the interior East Bay. For Wednesday,
several locations will be within a few degrees of daily records
for February 4. Official forecast for San Jose Airport tomorrow is
74 deg F (record is 76 deg F), Salinas Airport 79 deg F (record
of 80 deg F), and Monterey Airport 77 deg F (record of 77 deg F).
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Pleasant and dry conditions will continue through the work week
before the West Coast ridge gets undercut by a weak upper-level
low off SoCal and Baja California. This will promote the beginning
of a cooling trend around Friday that will last into the weekend.
By late weekend and into next week, ensemble guidance advertises
the arrival of a progressive longwave trough to the West Coast,
introducing something we haven't seen in a several weeks: rain.
There has been a gradual delay with onset of rain chances.
Previous forecast packages have noted arrival of rain as soon as
early Sunday morning for coastal Sonoma and evening for the
Central Coast. The NBM has continued this onset delay with the
slight chance of rain now scheduled to arrive to the North Bay
closer to mid-day Sunday and the Central Coast late evening Sunday
(i.e., pushed back by ~6 hours). Still, the total rainfall
amounts appear to remain very light at this time. Some breezy
winds may be associated with this system on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
VFR conditions prevail across the region through the day. Overnight,
Tule Fog impacts should develop in the far interior East Bay, with a
low possibility for impacts to APC. Meanwhile, radiational fog and
stratus should develop near STS and may develop in the southern side
of San Francisco Bay, but impacts to the main terminals are very low
confidence. Stratus should clear Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain in a generally offshore pattern, with gusty winds possible in
the interior terminals, with a possible light onshore breeze
developing at the immediate coastal regions.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the day. Some high resolution
guidance is developing stratus in the southern end of San Francisco
Bay early Wednesday morning, but confidence in impacts to the
terminal is low and the TAF remains VFR throughout. A light onshore
breeze will develop this afternoon, turning offshore overnight
through Wednesday morning before resuming in the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light onshore
winds this afternoon, followed by drainage winds overnight with
a moderate breeze at SNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
Moderate seas and gentle northerly breezes will persist into
midweek. Moderate northwesterly breezes and building seas will
result in a return of rough seas late Thursday night and Friday,
continuing into the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to
9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late Wednesday night through
Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...RW
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Feb 3 16:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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