FXUS66 KMTR 100600
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1000 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
- Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled
weather returns late week into next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return
late week into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Upper level ridging prevails over the West Coast (and most of the
United States) heading into Tuesday. Expect foggy conditions to
develop across the North Bay Valleys, along the San Francisco and
San Pablo Bayshores and bays, the delta, and potentially the
interior East Bay Valleys. The conditions are favorable for fog to
develop again tonight with decent moisture and good overnight
radiational cooling thanks to a lack of mid/high level clouds.
Bayshore locations and any mariners on the San Francisco/San Pablo
Bays or the Delta should be prepared for fog, likely dense, to
develop early Tuesday morning. If driving, remember to slow down and
allow extra time to reach your destination. If boating in fog, turn
on all running lights, slow down, and listen for any other boats
that may be nearby. As of 1PM Monday, visibilities are still
struggling to improve along portions of the bay shoreline from this
morning's fog. Tomorrow will likely be similar with reduced
visibilities and patchy fog persisting into the late morning/early
afternoon hours.
Despite early morning fog, high temperatures will warm back into the
70s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast by Tuesday
afternoon. This is brought to us by persistent upper level ridging
over the Western US and 850 mb temperatures around 12-16 C. While
pleasantly warm, these temperatures are around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Morning low temperatures remain in the
50s with slightly cooler lows in the 40s across the North Bay. While
the high temperatures don't make it feel like winter is coming,
there is a pattern change expected late week into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Upper level ridging and above normal temperatures continue Wednesday
and Thursday. High temperatures remain in the 70s on Wednesday
across the interior but trend cooler on Thursday (dropping into the
60s to low 70s). Coastal areas remain constant in the 60s to low
70s. Unsettled weather returns Friday and brings with it a host of
topics to discuss. Upper level ridging will be replaced by a deep
upper level trough pushing into the West Coast. Temperatures will
cool, becoming more seasonal to seasonally cool. Interior highs will
be in the mid to upper 60s Friday/Saturday before dropping into the
low 60s Sunday/Monday. Coastal areas will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Overnight lows will cool as well with high temperatures
gradually dropping into the 40s to upper 30s across the region.
Initially it looked as though we could see rain as early as
Wednesday/Thursday but those chances have evaporated - thanks to a
cutoff low splitting from the main trough and pushing into Southern
California and avoiding us. Rain chances now increase Friday into
the weekend with beneficial rain expected across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. The active period looks to continue well past Monday
with ensemble guidance highlighting many additional troughs/rounds
of rain arriving during the second half of the month. No major
flooding concerns are expected with this weekend's storm but that
may change over the next few weeks if we do see several rounds of
storms over a short time frame. There is even a low (5-12%) chance
of thunderstorms this weekend as the bulk of the rain moves in.
Gusty winds (30-40 mph) are likely as the front passes. The current
forecast stays below Wind Advisory criteria but that will be
something to keep an eye on as we head closer to the weekend. Now
would be a good time to secure any outdoor decorations or bring in
any outdoor furniture. If you have any other winter/rain
preparations to do (i.e. clearing your gutters, power outage prep,
trimming tree limbs) make sure to do it before Friday.
Hazardous beach conditions return late week into the weekend as long
period NW swell and large breaking waves. The current forecast has
wave heights between 18 to 22 feet across the outer waters which
will bring hazardous conditions for mariners. Beachgoers will also
experience hazardous conditions due to large breaking waves, sneaker
waves, and strong rip currents. This is not a good weekend to go to
the beach.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
The forecast seems to be on track this evening, as skies
have cleared and satellite shows some fog developing over coastal
Marin and just north of Half Moon Bay. More noticeable fog has
developed up in Mendocino County and is slowly working its way
south. Given the observations and the latest hi-res guidance opted
to generally push back timing by several hours, closer to 10Z or
12Z. Models seem to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR
vis for KSTS, KOAK, and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior
sites like KAPC and even KSFO. Still think that any fog that does
form tonight should erode between 17-19Z. VFR conditions will
prevail after that.
Vicinity of SFO...No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it
appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud
development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR
vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi-
res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR,
REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of
any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions
prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to
develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR
cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and
gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing
should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19-
20Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Weak offshore flow returns to the forecast
tonight which should be enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR. A few
models still hint at a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS
again. Kept the hint at any development in the TAF, with the
return of onshore flow by the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Seas will continue to subside tonight, with the offshore waters
becoming rough while nearshore waters become more moderate. These
conditions will persist through Tuesday and most of Wednesday,
with seas building late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds during this
time frame moderate to fresh and from the north Tuesday before
becoming gentle to moderate on Wednesday. The sea state becomes
dynamic once again by the second half of the work week into next
weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18 seconds
late in the forecast period. Seas are expected to become very
rough to high.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Beach Hazards:
The Beach Hazards Statement was allowed to expire this evening, as
wave are gradually subsiding and there appears to be a brief lull
in wave activity. However, spring tides are still occuring and
will increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal.
Forecasts show building waves and seas late Wednesday into
Thursday morning, with additional additional swells impacting the
coast this coming weekend. When visiting the beach, continue to
practice beach safety. Remember, waves can sweep across the
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks,
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM
Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM
Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM
Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM/KR
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Nov 9 22:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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