FXUS66 KMTR 242304
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
304 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
- Periods of rain this evening ending overnight
- Mild and dry conditions Wednesday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 241 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)
The main rain band has been pointed at far northern Sonoma county
and points northward into Mendocino and Humboldt counties for
much of the day. Heavy rain has been confined to the Sonoma hills
with 1-2 inch rain amounts so far with 0.25-0.50 for the Sonoma
county valleys. South of Santa Rosa rain amounts have been a tenth
or less down through Marin county and towards the Golden Gate.
Little or no rain so far today south of San Francisco with amounts
generally a trace to a few hundredths.
Even with extensive cloud cover the airmass is warm and mild as
temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s for the Central Coast
with widespread 60s across the Bay Area. Where rain is falling,
in places like Santa Rosa we are seeing readings in the upper 50s.
The short term models are adamant that the front will begin to
shift southward over the next several hours with increasing rain
coverage for the Bay Area evening commute. However, as the front
shifts southward it will lose upper support and the front will
weaken with only light rain forecast south of San Francisco this
evening and little or no rain for the Santa Clara Valley and
interior Central Coast.
The juicy airmass and light winds could lead to some patchy
valley fog formation in the valleys overnight and for the start of
the Weds morning commute. Temps will remain mild overnight in the
50s for most locations. High pressure rebuilds on Weds with highs
well into the 60s and lower 70s for a springlike feel to the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 241 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Building ridge will keep overnight lows mild for late February in
the 50s with patchy valley fog formation. Daytime highs Thursday
through Saturday will remain unseasonably mild with highs upper
60s to mid 70s for most of the Bay Area and even close to 80 for
interior Monterey county.
Next forecast change of note will occur Sunday and Monday with
high confidence for a cooling trend back closer to normal
readings. This will be in response to an upper low passing over
NorCal in the vicnity of Cape Mendocino. While some light rain
showers are possible, confidence is low on any meaningful precip
with the main impact to bring a cooling trend back to more normal
temperatures. Long range trend for the first week of March doesnt
show signs of any moderate to strong storms but the pattern
remains somewhat active/progressive with no strong ridging either.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Light rain continues to affect the north bay with the main rain band
arriving into the afternoon and spreading south into the late
afternoon and early evening. Expect building mid-level clouds as the
rain pushes south, and some spotty low clouds, specifically at STS.
Southerly winds build just ahead of the rain band, becoming breezy
to gusty around the SF Bay. The front itself weakens as it pushes
south, with little to no rain reaching the Monterey Bay. Winds become
light into the night and cloud cover erodes into Wednesday.
Vicinity of SFO...Light showers are approaching with mostly mid
to high level clouds. Winds become breezier and more southerly
into the evening as scattered showers arrive. Moderate rains build
arrive along the main rain band this evening. Scattered showers
linger in the wake of the main rain band into the night as winds
reduce. Expect lighter winds into early Wednesday with cloud cover
eroding into the midday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Higher-level cloud cover builds through the
day with moderate northwest winds building into the evening.
Slight chances for non- impactful showers arrive into the evening
along with scattered mid to low-level clouds.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Light to moderate rain continues to spread across the northern
waters with breezy to locally gusty winds. Rain chances peak in
the evening and early night, with showers becoming scattered in
the late night. Expect winds to reduce into the evening and
overnight hours, leading to mostly light winds into Wednesday.
Seas will ease into the mid week but slowly rebuild in the late
week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Feb 24 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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