FXUS66 KMTR 071139
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
439 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
- Cooler temperatures persist through Tuesday
- Slight chance for coastal drizzle/light rain late Monday into
early Tuesday
- Warmer and drier conditions return mid to late week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
(Today and tonight)
Generally clear conditions prevail across the region with some
stratus development visible on the western San Mateo Peninsula, the
northern edge of the Santa Lucias near Monterey Bay, the Gabilan
Range east of Salinas, and the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills. Stratus
development through the night will be confined to the Monterey Bay
and potentially the Morgan Hill-Hollister area, as strong mixing in
the boundary layer disrupts radiational stratus formation.
Troughing dominates the weather pattern across the West Coast with
an upper level low pressure system moving through the Pacific
Northwest, leading to temperatures cooler than the seasonal
averages. Today's high temperatures will hover in the middle 70s to
lower 80s in the inland valleys, up to the middle to upper 80s in
the warmest spots of eastern Contra Costa County and southern
Monterey County, the middle 60s to the middle 70s near San Francisco
Bay and the Santa Cruz coastal plain, and the upper 50s to middle
60s along the Pacific Coast and the southern side of Monterey Bay.
Breezy winds are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening
hours, but by that time the upper low should be moving into the
northern Rockies and the Canadian Prairies, slackening the pressure
gradient. This should result in the wind gusts not being as strong
as they were yesterday. Wind gusts should top out around 20-30 mph
along the coast and the Salinas Valley, with locally stronger gusts
through gaps and passes and near favored coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
(Monday through Saturday)
A second low pressure system will reinforce the troughing pattern on
Monday, leading to a slight dip in the temperatures as highs in the
inland valleys dip into the 70s. As the second low moves through the
Pacific Northwest, it will drag along a stream of moisture late
Monday into early Tuesday. Model output shows precipitable water
values of around 1" to 1.3", over twice the seasonal average this
time of year. Any rain will be very light with the highest
accumulations lying across the North Bay coastal ranges. Even there,
the trend for progressively drier totals continues as the current
forecast limits accumulations to less than a tenth of an inch, and
even a higher end ensemble forecast limits the totals to less than a
quarter of an inch in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, and less than a
tenth of an inch elsewhere within the Bay Area. However, as we
sprint headfirst into the climatological dry season, any rainfall is
beneficial.
By the later part of Tuesday into Wednesday, that second low
pressure system will move into the Northern Rockies, and ensemble
model output is converging on a ridge beginning to come into the
West Coast, allowing inland highs to rebound to the 90s and the
coasts to rise to the 60s and 70s for the middle and later parts of
the week. These temperatures are raising the prospect of a moderate
risk for heat-related illnesses, especially for sensitive
populations including children, the elderly, pregnant women, and
people who work or live outdoors. Gusty northerly winds are
possible on Wednesday and Thursday across the interior regions,
especially the North Bay interior mountains, as the trough digs into
the Rockies. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to differ on
how deep that upper level trough will go, and any fire weather
impacts from rainfall look to be minimal, if indeed there is any
rainfall at all.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
except for Monterey Bay terminals where MVFR cigs are expected to
develop later tonight into early Monday morning. Gusty onshore
flow will develop this afternoon and also persist into late
tonight with winds remaining breezy through the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF
period with gusty onshore flow once again this afternoon through
the late evening hours, remaining breezy through the overnight
into early Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but lighter west winds.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Expect VFR conditions soon after sunrise
with pockets of low stratus in vicinity of the terminal. Breezy
onshore flow this afternoon with moderate to high confidence that
MVFR cigs will develop after sunset tonight and persist through
the remainder of the forecast period into Tuesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Very rough seas over the outer waters and rough seas over the
inner waters will continue today with hazardous conditions for
small craft. Conditions begin to improve tonight into the
beginning of the week with fresh northwesterly breezes and
moderate seas.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 7 08:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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