FXUS66 KMTR 021007
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
207 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the week
- Minor coastal flooding through Monday during high astronomical
tide for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday at Pacific Coast
beaches
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(Today and tonight)
An upper level ridge will build overhead today, bringing
continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Clear
skies aloft and light winds this morning and again late tonight
will allow patchy fog to develop primarily in the North and East
Bay valleys, with a lower (but non-zero) potential for fog along
the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Motorists that encounter fog
(locally dense) should slow down, use low-beam headlights, and
leave plenty of distance ahead of them. Low temperatures will be
near normal, mainly in the 40s, but some interior valleys will dip
into the upper 30s. Highs today will be similar or slightly
warmer than yesterday as light onshore winds keep warming in
check, with temperatures up to 5 degrees above normal along the
coast and 5-10 degrees above normal inland.
While impacts from minor coastal flooding will be lower than
previous days, high astronomical tide late this morning into early
this afternoon will still bring minor flooding to bayshore
locations along the San Pablo Bay in the North Bay. Hazardous
beach conditions continue at Pacific Coast beaches through this
evening, read more in the BEACHES section.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Tuesday through Thursday, winds will turn more offshore as the
ridge strengthens and slowly shifts to the northeast. This will
boost highs by 4-8 degrees from today, with Wednesday expected to
be the warmest day. This will translate to highs in the 70s to
around 80 in interior valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s near the
coast.
On Friday, the ridge will shift east as a weak trough (or even a
closed low in some models) moves near the coast. For now, rain
chances from this feature are very low (less than 10%), but a more
favorable track of this system could increase chances of light
rain. Temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees with
winds shifting more onshore during the afternoon.
The pattern is finally expected to change more significantly
Saturday into early next week as upper level troughing becomes
more prominent along the West Coast. The trough will bring
precipitation to the Pacific Northwest by Saturday, with rain
chances extending south into northern and then central California
by Sunday and Monday as the trough deepens and progresses to the
east, accompanied by a cold front. However, rain amounts at this
time appear to be light and not very impactful, with a continued
cooling trend. That said, confidence is fairly high on the overall
change to upper level troughing along the coast (85-90% chance of
occurrence), with larger uncertainty on timing and strength of
the trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 903 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period except for
terminals in the North Bay and East Bay valleys that have seen
patchy but dense fog develop in the vicinity of KSTS and KLVK the
last few overnights into the morning hours.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast
period with relatively light winds. Afternoon haze is expected to
develop but not interfere with VFR conditions.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the
forecast period. Weak onshore flow is expected to return toward
the end of the TAF period, however any stratus development is
expected to be limited.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 903 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
Hazardous marine conditions with moderate rough seas and a fresh
to strong northerly breeze continue through Monday. Winds diminish
by Monday afternoon and seas subside, becoming moderate, by
Tuesday. Improved conditions continue through late week with seas
to build starting Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM PST this
afternoon for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tangen
LONG TERM....Tangen
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 2 02:30:04 PST 2026
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 2 04:32:25 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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