FXUS66 KMTR 241953
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1253 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend
- Dry weather continues this week; increasing potential for light
rain to return beginning of April
- Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains
Thursday into Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Adjusted temperatures up slightly today given a number of daily
high temperatures were set yesterday, with some more expected
today. H50 height field will continue to gradually weaken the
remainder of today and Wednesday. The net result of the lower
heights and slight increase in cloud cover Wednesday will be
around a 5 degree drop in daytime highs from todays values. The
progressive trough working to flatten heights on the backside of
the persistent ridge will also result in breezy to gusty winds at
times Wednesday afternoon, especially near the coast and elevated
interior locations. Increased coverage of marine stratus along the
coast is also likely, but will struggle to penetrate too far
inland with the upper ridging still holding it back mostly to the
coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Not much change in the long term forecast through the weekend.
Pleasant weather while temperatures mostly run 10-20 degrees
above normal with generally light winds. The signal for a more
significant pattern change appears to be trending upwards with
ensembles and deterministic guidance coming more in line with one
another. Confidence is highest for at least temperatures to be
moderated closer to normal by the beginning of next week. The
deeper offshore troughing beginning Monday that would be more
favorable for potential rainfall also seems to be more likely than
at this time yesterday. This is a trend we'll be monitoring
closely. Attm the North Bay and the coastal ranges are in the best
position to get periods of wetting rain later Monday into
Tuesday, which does speak to the shallow nature of the moisture
source in the lower boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Generally VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the
forecast period, with low-to-moderate probability of the coastline
seeing sub-MVFR conditions early late in the night and into early
Wednesday morning. Onshore wind will return late this morning and
continue through the evening before diminishing.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light and variable wind becoming westerly 10
to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening. There is a low probability
for MVFR/LIFR ceilings overnight, yet the strength of the high
pressure aloft should limit these conditions. Winds diminish late
evening and into early Wednesday morning before increasing once
again by Wednesday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 knots in the
afternoon. Light southeast winds developing tonight and Wednesday
morning. Low probability of sub-MVFR conditions returning late in
the night along the coast, yet conditions should improve toward the
end of the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1248 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Moderate north-northwesterly breezes will persist through tonight
and begin to increase further Wednesday. By late Wednesday gale
force northerly winds will develop across the northern outer
waters and continue into Thursday. Expect rough to very rough seas
to develop by late Wednesday through Thursday, then begin to ease
on Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to
Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 24 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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