FXUS66 KMTR 120809
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1209 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue today
- Rain returns to the region Friday into next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Today and tonight)
The West Coast sits between a ridge centered over the Northern
Rockies, a deep low pressure system moving in from the waters south
of Alaska, and a satellite trough digging into the waters off of
southern California. Through the course of the day, the system of
troughs will slowly nudge the ridge axis northwards into the central
parts of Canada. For now, warm and dry conditions will continue but
there will be a noticeable dip in the high temperatures ahead of
more unsettled weather in the medium to long term. Morning lows
lie in the middle to upper 40s for the inland valleys and the
lower to middle 50s for the coastal and Bayshore regions. Highs
will range in the lower to middle 60s across the inland valleys,
the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the Bays and the lower to
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Afternoon winds will be
noticeably breezier than what we saw yesterday as the incoming
lows tighten the pressure gradient; gusts of 25 to 35 mph are
possible along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.
Prefrontal showers are possible along the coastal ranges tonight
into Friday morning, a precursor to an opening storm door through
the rest of the forecast.
Hazardous beach conditions are forecast for the Pacific coast
through the next couple of days with dangerous conditions expected
to develop over the weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement is currently
in effect for the Pacific coast for breaking waves 15 to 20 feet
along with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents,
while High Surf Warnings will go into effect Friday night into early
Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a
high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. In addition, coastal
flooding concerns due to high tides persist at the bayshore
locations along San Pablo, San Francisco, and southern Monterey Bays
through Friday, along with coastal flooding along the Pacific coast
due to wave runup impacts on Saturday. See the BEACHES section for
more details.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
A pattern change will bring bouts of rain beginning Friday into next
week as a series of storms move through the region. Most of the
rainfall from these systems is targeted at the Pacific Northwest
into the North Coast. For the Bay Area and Central Coast, the
impacts are not expected to be as severe, at least for the initial
rounds. The model solutions are converging onto three systems coming
through the region within the seven-day outlook. The first system
comes into the North Bay Friday morning, extending into the SF Bay
region in the late morning and early afternoon hours before
dissipating as it comes into the Central Coast later in the
afternoon, with lingering showers into the night. Rain totals from
this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.2" for the North Bay,
0.3-0.8" for the SF Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur
coast, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of Monterey and San
Benito Counties. A second system comes through Sunday into Monday,
and while the rain totals are still being refined, the pattern looks
to be broadly similar to Friday's system. Towards the end of the
seven-day outlook, model output is showing a third system coming in
for the middle of next week, with the exact details still uncertain.
With it being so early in the rain season, potential flooding
concerns will be minimal with the main impact being slick roadways.
The possibility of strong gusty winds is also worth keeping an eye
on. While wind gusts are not expected to reach Advisory criteria at
this time, gusts of 25 to 35 mph can cause trees or branches to fall
and may result in isolated power outages or slicker roads as leaves
fall from trees and get wet. Another concern will be the risk of
thunderstorms embedded within the main rain band and potentially in
the post-frontal environment. The cold low will be centered to our
north, but will still bring cool enough air aloft to bring the
MUCAPE values up to 100-300 J/kg. That would be within the top 10%
of soundings at Oakland for practically any time of year. There is
also strong shear aloft enhanced by the region coming within the
left exit region of a jet streak visible at the 500 mb level, where
the decelerating winds and vertical circulation support an area of
upper level divergence, which would support convective activity in
the area. A slight (15%) chance of thunder has been added to the SF
Bay Area for Friday morning and afternoon as a result. This may need
to be adjusted as the forecast evolves and further model runs come
in.
Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean
towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late
November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil
saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions continue this evening with stratus forming over
our offshore waters. The HRRR seems to be depicting this
reasonably well and if it pans out has stratus breaching the coast
between 08-11Z. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode
by mid morning, leading to another VFR day.
Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence in the forecast as models
struggle to determine if reduced vis and cig return. Kept the
mention of MVFR cigs but that could be too bullish. Think the
timing for it is reasonable, with VFR conditions returning by mid
to late morning. Southerly winds gradually increase throughout the
day, potentially getting to 10-15kt for the afternoon and
evening. Up to a 20% for rain might sneak into SFO as early as 12Z
Fri, though confidence is too low to add in mentions of RA or
VCSH.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the
early overnight hours. We're watching some stratus offshore trying
to snake its way to the Monterey coastline. Guidance shows it
arriving between 9-11Z, and then mixing out by mid to late morning.
Winds will then gradually increase out of the south with VFR
conditions prevailing.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 900 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Wave heights continue to build to above 10 ft by this evening.
Further deterioration is expected Thursday into Friday ahead of a
cold frontal passage on Friday. Moderate rain and strong SW winds
with gale force gusts are expected Friday into Saturday as the
front moves through. By Saturday, incoming NW swell from a distant
hurricane force low will result in high seas with significant
wave heights between 25 to 30 feet. Wave heights decrease slightly
Sunday before another round of high seas takes place Monday.
Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in
these conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong
rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking
wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell
arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet.
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new
round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10
PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST
Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday
for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Friday
for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 12 00:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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