FXUS66 KMTR 070759
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1259 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday
- Warming and drying trend Monday through Thursday with
widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus redeveloping along the
San Mateo County coastline and some stratus development over the
East Bay. Coastal water temps remain a few degrees Fahrenheit
above normal, however recent northwest winds have either held sea
surface temps steady or slightly edged readings 1F lower in the
last 24 hours. Radiative cooling through daybreak, cooler surface
to near surface air arriving from the northwest and the eventual
strengthening of a lower level temperature inversion should help
with at least patchy to areas of stratus and fog development.
After morning coastal stratus and fog mix out, daytime highs will
warm to the 70s coastside and to the 80s and lower 90s inland.
Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal
North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening.
Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of
time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Labor Day (Tuesday and
Wednesday as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts
will include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly
along the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide
is expected to be 0.5 ft above normal (up to 1.0 ft above MHHW)
at 9:00 PM 9/7. At this time we are messaging it here and will
include messaging in social media vs issuing a coastal flood
advisory for Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Dry weather remains in the forecast. Will have to closely monitor
remnant mid to high level tropical clouds that may arrive here
during the week. Higher to much higher precipitable water (pw)
may arrive here during the week, with 1.40" pw reaching the Bay
Area according to the latest GFS model. This week's forecast of
hot temperatures is dependent on strengthening of 500 mb high
pressure (and compressional warming) as the current models show,
however some of this strength may be in response to what happens
to eventual post tropical remnants entraining into the upper low
over the east Pacific. There are also hints of cool air advection
returning on northwest winds late in the week. For now it's a low
confidence forecast as to timing, location (and duration) as to how
hot it may get here (closest to the coastline mainly) during mid-
week. Will monitor model output closely for now before decision
making on heat advisories. Stay tuned to the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
VFR conditions continue tonight with HAF currently the only terminal
with MVFR ceilings. Some ceilings are beginning to develop over the
East Bay and may fill in over OAK in the next few hours. North Bay
and Monterey Bay terminals are expected develop MVFR-IFR ceilings
after midnight with increased confidence for STS to develop LIFR
ceilings. The weak offshore flow is expected to begin after midnight
and persist into late Monday morning which will help scatter out any
stratus or fog by mid-morning. Medium confidence on stratus/fog
arrival times. Gentle winds persist overnight with the direction
influenced by local terrain. Moderate onshore breezes settle in by
Monday afternoon into the evening.
Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is beginning to develop along the coast,
though VFR is advertised through the TAF period. Low to medium
confidence on whether SFO will develop MVFR ceilings as the weak
offshore flow may result in a patchy marine layer. Gentle southwest
winds become south at OAK and easterly at SFO early Monday morning
and gradually increase to moderate onshore breezes through the
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with light southerly breezes at MRY
meanwhile SNS remains northwest for a few more hours before shifting
southerly. IFR ceilings develop at MRY shortly after midnight which
is then followed by SNS early Monday morning. Stratus is expected to
scatter out in the post-sunrise and become VFR through Monday
afternoon. Gentle northwest breezes increase as stratus clears from
the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh
with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts
are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and
within the Golden Gate channel. Winds diminish everywhere except
the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to
prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell
associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will
continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1213 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day. Moderate
to long period swell will increase the chance for sneaker waves,
since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their
energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves,
expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this
is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice,
the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an
expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore
until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared
for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the
ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Sep 7 02:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
|