FXUS66 KMTR 230704
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
- Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist
within the marine layer through the next week
- Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
(Today and tonight)
Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between
the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the
Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific
Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over
central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a
slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal
stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours,
and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the
post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s
to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple
digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey
County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are
expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through
favored gaps and passes.
Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine
layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations
where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in
the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and
evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer
inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced
visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport
smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality
information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air
Resources District.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
(Monday through Saturday)
The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the
forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow
more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing
temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys
(around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound
on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and
remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7-
day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to
develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes.
Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center
continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems
to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such
system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the
impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts
to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture
flow towards our region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026
VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/
along San Mateo County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire
smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over
the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over
the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog
/IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve
to MVFR-VFR along the coast later in the morning otherwise VFR
Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z
Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 8 to 15 knots tonight
and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday
afternoon to mid Sunday evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops
late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR
late Sunday morning and afternoon. Patchy stratus /IFR/ possible
Sunday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as
moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions
remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern
outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor
impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke
from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Aug 23 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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