FXUS66 KMTR 140823
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
123 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
- Above normal temperatures and minor HeatRisk today
- An early season, long duration heat wave will bring record
breaking temperatures and moderate HeatRisk through the week
- Elevated potential for grass fires due to warm and dry
conditions and periods of moderate offshore winds next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
The high clouds from yesterday are slowly clearing as marine
stratus starts to form along the coast from Davenport to Pt.
Reyes. These low clouds will gradually advect south towards the
Central Coast before clearing in the late morning hours. Despite
the increased afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be similar to
Friday thanks to a weak short wave disturbance taking a bite out
of the ridge. This will also help support stronger onshore winds,
particularly along the coast. Overall it will be another nice day
across the Bay Area and Central Coast before the warmer weather
moves in.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
The ridge starts to build in earnest on Sunday. The return of high
clouds will help dull the heat impacts a bit before the ridge
reaches its full strength and clouds clear on Monday. At that
point the pattern is pretty steady, with temperatures 20-30
degrees above normal for this time year from Monday through
Friday. That translates to highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s along
the coast, and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. The forecast trend
has been ever so slightly cooler for the first half of the week,
but a little warmer in the second half. The ridge axis is still
expected to slide east of us on Tuesday, but it then strengthens
over the SW mid week, keeping the heat impacts pretty consistent
through Friday.
The upper level statistics all continue to point to record
breaking heat. Ensembles show high confidence that the 850mb temp
will get close to 20C, and the 500mb height should reach 5900m.
These are both higher than we've ever observed in March since
routine weather balloon launches began in the late 1940s. When
combined with offshore winds and the long duration of this heat
wave, it's hard to imagine we won't break a few monthly
temperature records. That being said, it's still March. The nights
are much longer than in Summer, and that will allow low elevation
temperatures to drop back into the upper 50s/low 60s. This will
help reduce the cumulative heat impacts this week, and we are
only expecting moderate HeatRisk outside of the mountains.
As fine fuels dry this week, the potential for grass fires will
increase. Offshore winds will be moderate at times. If you are
participating in any outdoor activities (camping, offroading,
hiking, etc) exercise caution when using fire and be aware that
the risk of grass fires will be elevated.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Winds are starting to reduce, becoming light for most areas aside
from the immediate coast. This means HAF will continue to see
moderate winds through the night. Low CIGs look to form in the late
night around the Monterey Bay as well as at HAF, then STS looks to
have moments of low CIGs and mist into Saturday morning. Moderate
winds return Saturday afternoon for most areas, while the coast (and
HAF) see strong gusts. Cloud cover erodes into the afternoon, but
hazy conditions look to form in most of the valleys and along the
coast into the weekend. Winds reduce again into Saturday night.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate west winds
linger into the night before reducing. Northwest winds build again
into Saturday afternoon and last into late that night before
becoming light again.
SFO Bridge Approach...Scattered low clouds look to move around the
Eastern SF Bay into Saturday morning, with a few passing through the
approach until the late morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night before winds
become light and IFR CIGs arrive to MRY. IFR CIGs will be slower to
arrive to SNS, but are expected into early Saturday morning while
MRY begins to see moments of LIFR CIGS. Expect some mist and reduced
visibilities along with the building cloud cover. VFR returns in the
mid to late morning as moderate west to northwest winds build. Winds
reduce again into Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 842 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Fresh to moderate north/northwest breezes Continue across the
waters causing hazardous conditions through the weekend. Winds
and seas ease in the inner waters by Sunday afternoon, and the
rest of the waters by mid Monday. Mostly calm conditions will
then last through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 614 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th.
Location Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
Santa Rosa 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 84 in 2010
San Rafael 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 80 in 1996
Kentfield 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 89 in 1914
Napa 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 87 in 1914
Richmond 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 78 in 1996
Livermore 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 86 in 2004
San Francisco 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 86 in 1914
SFO Airport 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 77 in 2004
Redwood City 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 84 in 2004
Half Moon Bay 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 75 in 1978
Oakland Museum 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 81 in 2004
San Jose 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 87 in 1914
Salinas Airport 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 84 in 1960
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Mar 14 02:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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