000
FXUS66 KMTR 040031 CCA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 PM PST FRI FEB 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:35 PM PST FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT 24 HOUR TREND INDICATES THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 2-5 DEGS COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A NICE DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED ON THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT WAS
NEAR 10MB...BUT HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO 7 MB. WINDS WERE BREEZY IN
THE HILLS...BUT HAVE DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE REGION. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND CURRENT
FORECAST IS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IF OFFSHORE FLOW IS A TAD
STRONGER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. THAT BEING
SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW PLACES INTERIOR REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE A BRIEF PATTERN
CHANGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN AFTER THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE CAME IN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL DO NOT PAINT A
CLEAR PICTURE. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE COASTLINE AND DROPS IT SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND GEM
SHOW SIMILAR SCENARIOS FOR NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND...DRIVE THE UPPER LOW RIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH MORE
PRECIP FOR THE CWA. IF THREE TO FOUR WEEKS AGO IS ANY
LESSON...THEN THE ECMWF WILL VERIFY(WESTERLY TRACK) MEANING LESS
OF CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL WAIT FOR ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS
BEFORE CUTTING PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES PRECIP
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FEATURES A RE-BUILDING RIDGE WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IF THE BIAS CORRECTED IN HOUSE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THEN WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:29 PM PST FRIDAY...INHERITED TAFS LOOK GOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KSTS WHERE
FOG IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 10 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 3 20:50:05 PST 2012
From the National Weather Service
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