Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 141737
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1037 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - Well below normal temperatures with a deep marine layer and 
   a chance for drizzle Friday

 - Gradual warming trend kicks off Saturday with temperatures 
   slightly below normal into next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Overall, the short term forecast remains unchanged this morning. 
24 hour temperature departures were running 5 to 7 degrees lower 
thanks to plentiful cloud cover across a majority of the area. 
Hourly temperatures through early afternoon were adjusted 
downward to account for ongoing trends. Drizzle has persisted per
FAA and area web cams and a few more bucket tips are anticipated 
along the immediate coastline through early this afternoon. 
Gradual clearing is anticipated, but the timing should be similar 
to what was observed yesterday based on the latest short term NWP 
and trends (early to mid afternoon). MaxT remains unchanged and 
I'm still anticipating today's (Friday) highs in the 60s and 70s 
with 80s across the valley locations along the US HWY 101 
corridor. There's some uncertainty across the North Bay with 
respect to the clearing time as a pronounced eddy has developed 
across Bodega Bay. This feature was present yesterday, however, 
and areas did scatter out during the mid to late afternoon. This 
seems plausible to repeat today. Onshore flow should translate to
winds accelerating through gaps and passes, with peak gusts 
potentially as great as 40 mph in some of the wind corridors this 
afternoon and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026
(Tonight through Saturday)

Upper-level shortwave troughing will bring the coolest conditions of 
the week with well below normal temperatures and a deep marine layer 
Friday. The 00Z sounding observed a marine layer of 2,400 feet with 
satellite already showing an inland intrusion through the Delta and 
Pacheco Pass. With the associated lift from the aforementioned 
trough, drizzle can be expected along the coast and in the higher 
terrain via orographic lift. Smoke from the Timber Fire is expected 
to improve with the help of northwesterly transport winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Gradual warming trend kicks off Saturday as upper-level ridging 
builds into the Desert Southwest. Simultaneously, upper-level 
troughing will develop well off the West Coast. This will keep the 
ridge in check and onshore flow in place with temperatures remaining 
below normal. The marine layer will likely be deeper in the Bay Area 
than in the Central Coast with a chance for drizzle remaining across 
the coast and higher terrain. Global ensemble clusters are in 
agreement through Tuesday and then by Wednesday 60% show troughing 
prevailing into Thursday. Sensible weather wise, this would result 
in a cooling trend with increased onshore flow and the deepening of 
the marine layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Extensive low clouds and patchy drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ slowly mixing 
out and dissipating today otherwise it's VFR. Low clouds and patchy
drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in the early
afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday
morning. West wind 5 to 12 knots increasing to 12 to 22 knots in
the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing to around 10 knots
tonight and Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in
the afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday
morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 933 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue through early
next week. Seas will continue to subside and become moderate in
response. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds
approaches the coast tonight into Sunday. Winds will freshen
early to mid next week, causing seas to build up to 9 feet. Light
drizzle is possible across the coastal waters. Haze and smoke may
also impact visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to the
Timber fire.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Aug 14 12:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service