FXUS66 KMTR 160840
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

 - Breezy to windy conditions continuing, especially along the
   immediate coast

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected through this weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday across
   the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

 - Blustery winds for all beaches into the weekend and hazardous
   beach conditions for west facing beaches this afternoon through
   Monday morning


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Today and tonight)

Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure 
over the West, with a disturbance digging across Northern 
California early this morning. The fog imagery shows the leading 
edge of the high clouds associated with this disturbance making it
into North Bay at this time, while other areas are still clear.
These high clouds will be relatively shorted lived though, as 
this disturbance quickly dives into the Great Basin by this 
afternoon. That said, this disturbance will help reinforce the 
already moderate onshore pressures gradients across the region, 
with the upper level support at 925 mbs increasing to 55 kts as 
well, especially over the coastal waters. Therefore, given that 
we are continuing to see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with an 
isolated gust up to 50 mph along the immediate coast and the
coastal waters at this time, believe that it was prudent to issue
a Wind Advisory for the immediate coast from 11 am today through 
5 am on Sunday, all except Santa Cruz which is slightly more 
sheltered. Given the strong onshore gradient, expect high temperatures
today to be similar to those of yesterday for the coastal areas,
while inland areas will be several degrees cooler than those of 
yesterday. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Another disturbance will then rotate through the trough and dive
into the Great Basin on Sunday, keeping moderate to strong
pressure gradients going across the region. They will shift
though, turning more northerly or northeasterly. The upper level
support also weakens ever so slightly. Therefore, do not think a
wind advisory will be needed on Sunday, but cannot rule it out
completely, especially for the North and East Bay hills and 
mountains.

This broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through
the first part of the work week, with high pressure trying to
reestablish itself off the West Coast. This will keep Northern and
Central California situated between the two through at least
Tuesday, with dry northerly flow aloft. At this point in time, it
looks like the ridge may start to win out, with a warming trend 
possible, especially for our inland areas. Coastal areas though 
will likely fall back into our typical May gray pattern with 
nighttime and early morning low clouds and fog. 

By the end of the work week though, the ensembles are hinting at
another cut off low forming off of the California Coast. This will
likely help reinforce the marine layer and help cool things down
for the inland areas.  Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

High confidence VFR through the TAF period for all terminals. 
Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist with LLWS tonight 
through mid-morning Saturday for the North Bay terminals with a 
slight offshore fetch at 2k feet. Relatively moderate to strong 
offshore flow will also persist through the TAF period for all 
terminals with widespread gradient forcing across our area.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with strong, persistent 
onshore flow at KSFO through the TAF period, more moderate at 
KOAK. An Airport Weather Warning for wind gusts of 40 MPH or 
higher is likely for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. 
Hazy skies may reduce slantwise visibility at times.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period with gusty 
onshore flow Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, becoming 
breezy after sunset. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will be widespread through the
weekend. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will increase
further through the weekend, becoming near gale force to gale
force with severe gale force gusts Saturday and Sunday. Expect
isolated storm force gusts along a coastal jet that will develop
off of Big Sur beginning Saturday, with rough to very rough seas.
Conditions will begin to improve by the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the 
weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph 
for most areas are expected, with  around 40 to 50 mph along the 
coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low 
daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior 
regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity 
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday 
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a 
modest offshore flow continues into the work week. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing 
beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong
winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong 
wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, 
and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can 
overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and 
increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the 
immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased 
sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced 
visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on
the ocean. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for 
     CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT 
     Tuesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay 
     Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Storm Watch from 9 AM PDT this morning through Sunday evening 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 16 02:30:04 PDT 2026