FXUS66 KMTR 131131
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
431 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New BEACHES, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Continued hot and dry today for interior communities with Moderate
   HeatRisk.

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides 
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay 
   Area and Central California Coast.

 - Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Overcast conditions are blanketing the entire Pacific coast along
Sonoma County through Monterey County this early Saturday morning.
The stratus has spilled through the Golden Gate, and is also
expanding through the Salinas Valley. Nearly all airports are
running cooler compared to this time 24 hours ago throughout the
region, including inland terminals such as Livermore and Concord.
The healthy onshore gradient of +3.4 mb from SFO to SAC will help
expand the stratus as he night progresses.

Upper-level ridge remains over the eastern Pacific with northwest
flow aloft prevailing over the Golden State. For this afternoon, 
expect seasonable temperatures along the immediate Pacific coast 
with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, while communities away from 
the oceanic influence will be much warmer in the 80s to near 100 
degrees for far inland locations. While there will be a few 
degrees of cooling realized today, HeatRisk for the interior East 
Bay and South Bay will remain in the Moderate category. As a 
result, a Heat Advisory continues for these locations through 7 PM
PDT this evening. 

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the
middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and
lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal
anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of
the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise
since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will
add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early
next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January
(peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the
highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7
ft from July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

By Sunday and Monday, the grasp of the eastern Pacific ridge will
fade as it flattens, courtesy of an Aleutian low. The end result
for us will be a subtle (and welcomed) day-to-day cooling for
interior communities and the usual June stratus along the Pacific
Coast. The ridge will attempt to rebuild around Tuesday/Wednesday,
which may mark the end of the cooling trend for inland areas. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Coastal stratus, fog and patchy light drizzle /IFR-LIFR/ continue
to develop this morning. 24 hour satellite comparison shows greater
areal coverage of stratus and fog across the San Francisco Bay and
the North Bay valleys at the current time. Strong thermal ridging
continues aloft while the marine layer depth is currently ~ 1200 
feet. Recent high resolution model output shows diurnal surface
warming and mixing eroding the stratus and fog fairly rapidly
between 16z-18z this morning along the Bay Shoreline and across
the North Bay valleys. Onshore winds will prevail during the 12z 
TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows stratus close to SFO. Tempo IFR
ceiling 12z-16z this morning then clearing to VFR for the remainder
of the day and the evening. Scattered stratus is likely to redevelop
tonight and Sunday morning. Mainly west wind 7 to 15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus /IFR/ continues to develop in the
approach. As mentioned high resolution model output shows stratus
mixing out 16z-18z this morning. VFR late morning, through the 
afternoon and evening. SCT-BKN stratus coverage tonight and Sunday
morning.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus /IFR/ is nearing SJC Airport. 24
hour trend at SJC is cooler with a higher dewpoint (greater water
vapor), the wind is light northwest and the surface pressure is 
slightly lowering. Will add stratus IFR ceiling to the forecast 
with a mix out time 17z this morning. VFR for the remainder of the
day and tonight, and stratus may return Sunday morning. For OAK
Airport stratus /IFR/ until mix out time 17z this morning. VFR for
the remainder of the day, stratus /IFR/ returns by early Sunday 
morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR-LIFR/ until late morning 
mixing out to MVFR-VFR. Stratus /IFR-LIFR/ returns this evening 
and continues into Sunday morning. Winds mainly onshore 8 to 12 
knots. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across most of the coastal waters.
Winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the
seas subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 404 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, 
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach 
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply 
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, 
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for 
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area 
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up 
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching 
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into 
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest 
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay 
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside 
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your 
back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Tuesday 
     night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT 
     Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 13 06:30:03 PDT 2026