FXUS66 KMTR 230636
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1136 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

 - Slightly above normal to seasonal temperatures through the week

 - Dry weather through 7 day outlook; potential for light rain
   beginning of April

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1135 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)

Upper level ridging gradually rebuilds on Monday with above normal 
temperatures continuing. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s 
to low 80s across the interior with 60s to 70s along the coastline. 
The warmest areas will be in the interior Central Coast where high 
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s. High temperatures are 
running 10-15 degrees above normal which is cooler than the 20-30 
degrees above normal that we saw last week. One of the reasons for 
this difference is that the upper level ridge is weaker with heights 
peaking around 5850 meters over the Bay Area (compared to over 5900 
meters we saw last week). The center of the ridge is located to our 
south over the desert southwest. We can expect temperatures to cool 
down overnight with morning lows on Monday and Tuesday in the upper 
40s to mid 50s. Minor HeatRisk is forecast across the region through 
the entire week which primarily impacts those who are extremely 
sensitive to heat. Guidance is showing some potential for a shallow 
500-750 ft marine layer developing tonight but confidence is on the 
lower end given the rebuilding ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1135 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Above normal temperatures continue through the Long Term forecast 
with some potential for rain to return end of March/start of April. 
Upper level ridging persists through at least Tuesday with highs in 
the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the 
coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior Central Coast. 
Heading into Wednesday, the forecast gets a little more 
interesting. Both the Euro and the GFS show a cut-off upper level 
low over the Pacific being reabsorbed into the large scale pattern
and moving through southern CA as a shortwave trough. This 
displaces center of the upper level ridge further eastward 
(vicinity of AZ/NM) and coincides with the passage of a weak 
surface based cold front. Temperatures will drop 3-5 degrees 
Wednesday and Thursday with highs largely in the mid to upper 70s 
across the interior, 60s along the coast, and mid 80s across the 
interior Central Coast. A look at the Precipitable Water forecast 
shows PWAT values between 0.8-0.9" across the North Bay before the
front falls apart as it moves south of the Golden Gate. Don't go 
getting to hopeful for rain just yet though. Models aren't showing
any rain associated with this frontal passage, but, it may be 
enough moisture to generate some coastal drizzle. WRF guidance 
shows a shallow marine layer redeveloping on Wednesday which may 
increase coastal drizzle odds for the North Bay. Gusty winds 
briefly return Wednesday as frontal passage occurs but the 
windiest conditions largely stay over the marine environment and 
the higher elevations. Upper level ridging makes an effort to 
redevelop late week but, with the center of the ridge displaced 
farther east, we are only looking at a temperature increase of 2-3
degrees Friday into the weekend. 

For any rain fans out there, long range guidance shows a deep upper 
level trough moving onshore at the end of March/beginning of April. 
The current forecast shows precipitation chances increasing as early 
as March 30th but this is likely to be pushed backwards in time. 
Cluster guidance maintains ridging influence over the West Coast 
through at least the 31st with troughing becoming more likely 
starting April 1st. The clusters are not fully in agreement on this 
scenario yet either with 3 out of 5 showing troughing, 1 showing 
more zonal flow, and 1 showing ridging over the West Coast on April 
1st. While there is uncertainty as to when precisely the trough will 
arrive, models are in agreement that rain will in fact return at the 
beginning of April. It is worth mentioning that nearly all the Euro 
and GFS ensembles are picking up on light rain returning in the 4/1-
4/3 timeframe. Do the current ensemble rain amounts look impressive? 
Not terribly. Most models are showing around 0.5" with only a 
handful showing over 1" to 1.5" of precipitation. Still, it's better 
than nothing especially as the rainy season is winding down. The CPC 
maintains the potential for above normal precipitation across our 
CWA through April 5th with a return to below normal precipitation 
expected after that in the Weeks 3-4 outlook.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with high clouds streaming in
overhead. High confidence on VFR through the TAF period. Low 
probability for sub-VFR conditions returning to the terminals 
tonight with the relatively greatest potential at HAF, MRY, and 
SNS. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range 
visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High 
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will 
prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Low confidence on the
return of IFR conditions to the terminals tonight; if they do
return, it will likely be brief and/or intermittent in the 12Z-16Z
time frame. Onshore winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Strong northerly winds will slowly begin to diminish tonight with
moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes prevailing Monday and
Tuesday. Widespread hazardous marine conditions return Wednesday
with strong to near gale northerly breezes and rough to very
rough seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Mar 23 04:30:02 PDT 2026