FXUS66 KMTR 261755
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1055 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 908 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine
   and beach conditions through Wednesday morning

 - Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through 
   Thursday

 - Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Overnight and this morning, drizzle and light rain fell across the 
region. This is as a frontal boundary move through early this 
morning and continues to shift southward across Monterey and San 
Bentio continues. As such, rainfall amounts across the region have 
largely been less than 0.05". However, up to around 0.10"-0.20" has 
been reported along the San Francisco and Monterey peninsulas. The 
diver of this frontal boundary, the mid/upper level cut-off low, 
will linger through Thursday. This will allow for cooler, unsettled 
weather conditions to persist through Thursday before a warming and 
drying trend resumes by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Please 
see the previous short term forecast for more on the winds! 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 
(Today and tonight)

Tuesday's weather will be brought to you by a cold front. The 
associated lift has already done a number on the marine layer, 
making it too diffuse to support itself. Drizzle/light rain will be 
possible along and ahead of the cold front, especially along the 
coast and in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. 
The post-frontal environment will be characterized by clear skies 
and strong northerly winds. Widespread hazardous conditions for 
small craft are expected with gale force winds for the inner waters 
and Monterey Bay. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with isolated 
gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East 
Bay Hills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 
(Wednesday through Monday)

The associated upper-level trough will dig into California, becoming 
a cutoff low Wednesday that is expected to remain near-stationary 
through Thursday. As such, Wednesday and Thursday will be very 
similar with below normal temperatures and diurnal winds. Of more 
interest and potential impact is the chance for rain showers and 
thunderstorms. They will both rely on daytime heating as a trigger 
with accumulation dependent on where they develop. Chances are low 
(less than 15%) for thunderstorms with the relatively best chances 
for the far interior. The question is going to be if lift, 
instability, and moisture can overlap spatially and temporally. 
Conditionally unstable lapse rates will yield low CAPE on Wednesday. 
With PWAT values near average (0.60 inches) then, moisture will 
likely be the limiting factor. By Thursday, PWAT values increases to 
near one inch as the low drifts off the coast of the Bay Area; at 
the same time, the atmosphere begins to restabilize likely making 
instability the limiting factor for thunderstorms on Thursday. New 
wildfire starts will be a potential hazard due to fuels being about 
a month ahead of schedule. The low is expected to fill and become an 
open wave by Friday, leaving the region under zonal flow. A much 
warmer and drier airmass arrives over the weekend with upper-level 
longwave ridging moving in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR-VFR with a general decrease in cloud cover today then
increasing cloud cover with a few areas of light rain possible
over the north Central Coast Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind gusting to 35 knots through 05z
this evening, wind diminishing to 10 to 20 knots tonight and 
Wednesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The post frontal environment is bringing 
VFR conditions through the day into the evening. Moderate onshore 
breezes (12-15 kts) prevail through the TAF period with wind gusts 
up to 30 kts. Around 02-03Z Wednesday, MVFR ceilings begin to 
develop and deepen over the terminals. Moderate, gusty winds are 
expected to diminish late Tuesday night into the overnight hours and 
become more gentle (5-10kts). There may be some passing light rain 
early Wednesday morning (12Z) at both terminals, though it is not 
expected to be impactful if any develops. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Fresh northwest winds will develop with widespread strong to gale
force gusts over the coastal waters today. Gusty winds will
develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build to between 12
to 15  feet today into late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of 
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa/Navarrete
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 26 12:30:02 PDT 2026