FXUS66 KMTR 112358
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
458 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

 - Cooler weather through Tuesday

 - Coastal flooding during high tides through Tuesday

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday evening due to sneaker 
   waves, rip currents, and breaking waves

 - High temperatures gradually increase midweek, with above normal 
   temperatures for the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

Quiet weather is being observed across the Bay Area and Central 
Coast, with a few cumulus clouds popping up over some mountains and 
stratocu over our southern marine forecast areas. Water vapor 
imagery shows dryer air entrenched over the northern half of the 
state, thanks to an upper level trough. Models, including the NBM, 
still hint at light showers for far southern Monterey and San Benito 
counties late tonight and into Monday morning though the dry air 
might keep it as virga or mid and high clouds instead. Outside of 
those precip chances, dry weather prevails for Sunday and Monday and 
it will be accompanied with cool temperatures. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

The upper level trough does barrel towards NV and UT late Monday 
into early Tuesday morning leading to some lighter offshore flow. 
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will be building and working 
its way into the region, leading to temperatures slightly warming. 
The ridge continues to build into the region on Wednesday which will 
kick off the more notable warming trend for the rest of the week. 
The aforementioned upper level trough looks to center itself over 
WY/CO with broad troughing influencing the Desert Southwest. The 
trough becomes a bit more longwave like for the end of the week, 
which could lead to a renewed chance for offshore flow with warmer 
weather. This could lead to a period of elevated fire weather 
conditions.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mostly clear skies will persist through the TAF period as drier
air continues to filter in from the North. Strong onshore winds
will diminish over the next 3 hours before flipping to a light 
offshore breeze overnight. Surface winds will return to a 
moderate onshore breeze Monday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence in VFR conditions through the
TAF period. Strong westerly winds will weaken through the early
evening. A gentle NE wind is expected in the early morning, before
a moderate westerly breeze returns around midday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to persist,
but there is a better chance for some mid-level clouds through the
TAF period as some remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel
wraps around from the East. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Northerly flow is slowly easing over the coastal waters, but
hazardous conditions persist with fresh breezes to gale force
winds and rough seas. Strongest winds will be over the outer
waters north of Point Reyes. Moderate to longer period swells
continue to mix in leading to a confused sea state into next
week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Buoy reports this morning still indicated some solid swell 
entering the coastal waters. As such, still seeing an energetic 
the surf zone. Give the observed height and period isolated 
breaking waves 18-20 ft are possible at favored break points. Long
period southerly swell will persist through the weekend, bringing
an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. The 
large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water 
and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially
during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other 
waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the 
water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never 
turn your back on the ocean!

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Oct 11 18:30:03 PDT 2026