FXUS66 KMTR 021137
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
337 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 341 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

 - A series of troughs will bring cooler weather and cloudier
   skies through Wednesday

 - Strong winds expected along the coast and higher terrain
   Wednesday through Friday

 - Offshore winds will bring warmer and drier weather into the 
   weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026
(Today and tonight)

A cut-off surface low is situated just off the coast of Cape 
Mendocino. The associated upper level low and trough has overran 
the surface feature and moved inland over northern California. 
This forward stacking alignment signals weakening of the surface 
feature as the upper level convergence typically found upstream of
the trough is now directly over the surface low. The WPC surface 
progs support this development, with the surface low weakening 
from 1016 mb as of 06Z to 1020 mb by 18Z. This evolution is an 
major hindrance to convection, and I've removed mention of 
thunderstorms from the forecast for today. That being said, the 
disturbance will still push trough over the next 12 hours, 
bringing some isolated areas of light rain and more widespread 
drizzle through the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long wave pattern is active this week. Following the trough 
today, a small ridge will build through Tuesday night before 
another, more neutrally tilted trough, moves through Wednesday. The 
precipitable water is probably too low to bring any appreciable 
rain, but this fast moving trough will bring a cold front followed
by strong winds. Gale force gusts are possible along the coast 
and in higher terrain from Wednesday through Friday.

In addition to strong winds behind the front, the skies will quickly 
clear as much drier air moves in. The PW will likely drop from 
around 0.6" Wednesday morning to 0.3" Wednesday evening (roughly 
75th percentile to 10th percentile for this time of year). This dry 
air mass is initially coming in from the NW behind the front. As the 
upper level flow evolves, an inside slider pattern is likely by 
Friday or Saturday. This will bring persistent northerly, offshore 
flow through the weekend. The combination of this dry air mass and 
adiabatic drying from the offshore winds will keep the relative 
humidity noticeably low, with mostly clear skies. Temperatures 
will also respond to this pattern, reaching the low to mid 70s 
next weekend.

Ensemble clusters more or less agree that the dry inside slider 
pattern will stay around in some fashion through the 9th or 10th, so 
we don't expect much if any rain in the long term forecast as we 
head towards the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

A cloudy morning will transition to a clear afternoon. A weak 
disturbance is bringing some light showers to the area this 
morning, but the coverage and intensity is too low to include in 
the TAFs. This system is also supporting widespread MVFR to low 
VFR ceilings for all terminals. These clouds will persist through 
the morning before breaking up in the afternoon. Winds will be 
mostly gentle and diurnally driven. Ceilings will return 
overnight, with a lower height likely.

Vicinity of SFO...There are a few very light radar returns near
the terminal, but the observer hasn't mentioned any precipitation
yet. As such, I've decided to keep any mention of drizzle out of
the TAF, but the threat remains through the next 6 hours or so.
Otherwise the big question in the short term is whether the
ceilings will drop back below the MVFR threshold. While there were
a couple hours of roughly 1,500 ft ceilings, the current
observation is at 4,700 ft. The probability of dropping back down has
decreased, but I can't totally rule out a sunrise surprise that 
lasts for a few hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Despite the recent clearing, a much more
robust cloud deck will soon move over the terminal and will
persist through the morning hours. VFR conditions are likely 
through the afternoon and early evening hours before stratus 
returns around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

Gentle shifting winds today will become NW'rly and increase to a
moderate to fresh breeze Tuesday. Conditions will continue
deteriorate Wednesday through Friday with strong to gale force
northerly winds developing. These winds will build very rough
seas of 12 to 15 feet across exposed waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST 
     Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Mar 2 04:30:03 PST 2026