FXUS66 KMTR 100705
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1205 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

 - Warmer temperatures continue into next week with Moderate
   HeatRisk early next week

 - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker
   waves and strong rip currents through this evening

 - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above 
   ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
   tidal waterways

 - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns
   late this weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
(Today and tonight)

Stratus returns tonight with satellite imagery showing it already 
extending into the SF Bay shoreline and along most of the 
coastline/Monterey Bay region. The overall stratus footprint is more 
compressed tonight compared to last night. This is a result of 
building high pressure over southern California compressing the 
marine layer (and limiting stratus' inland progression). Yesterday 
the marine layer was closer to 1500 feet while tonight it is closer 
to 1000 ft. What does that mean for you? Coastal residents may see 
patchy drizzle and foggy conditions early this morning before 
conditions improve heading into the afternoon. For interior 
residents, stratus coverage will continue to expand overnight but it 
is not forecast to be as expansive in nature as it was the previous 
few nights. 

Temperatures stay fairly seasonal across the interior today with 
highs in the 80s to low 90s in the hottest locations. For coastal 
areas, temperatures continue to run cooler than normal with highs in 
the upper 50s to 60s and in the 70s along the SF Bay shoreline. The 
interior Central Coast remains the hottest portion of our CWA with 
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected. Minor HeatRisk 
continues across the interior with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across 
the higher elevations of the interior Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

A warming trend continues this weekend into next week as high 
pressure builds across the western United States. Upper level high 
pressure will gradually strengthen and shift northeastward from 
southern California towards the Intermountain West Saturday into 
Sunday. Building high pressure aloft will keep the marine layer 
compressed to around 1000 ft for much of the extended forecast and 
bring a return of seasonally warm temperatures across the interior. 
Coastal areas, however, will stay seasonal to seasonally cool thanks 
to the marine layer not entirely mixing out/remaining compressed 
along the coastline. Interior high temperatures will be in the 80s 
to 90s this week with the interior Central Coast and far interior 
East Bay reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas will stay in the 60s 
to 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the warmest days of the 
week next week as upper level ridging strengthens over the central 
United States. Given the strength of the upper level ridge, 
temperatures may be adjusted upwards by a few degrees as we get 
closer in time. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread Monday 
through Wednesday across both the higher elevations and more urban 
areas. Heat products may necessary for portions of the interior 
early next week. As temperatures heat up, remember to take breaks in 
the shade and stay hydrated if spending prolonged periods of time 
outdoors.

Thunderstorms remain possible Sunday into Monday but confidence in 
their development continues to be low. The monsoonal moisture 
remains on track to arrive overnight Sunday into Monday with 
instability continuing to be the limiting factor for storm 
development. Model guidance shows the best 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-
8C/km) Sunday afternoon while the bulk of the monsoonal moisture 
does not arrive until Monday. Model guidance continues to show 
minimal MUCAPE across the Central Coast and portions of the Bay Area 
during this period. The lack of instability would cap storm 
development and keeps the likelihood of thunderstorms low. That 
being said, this is considered a low probability, high impact 
scenario where if a thunderstorm is able to develop, the fire 
weather threat is high. High resolution models will get within range 
of this event starting Friday. It will be interesting to see how 
they are modeling instability with this event and how that 
influences the thunderstorm potential. Recent ensemble guidance 
suggests that light rain may be possible with any storms that are 
able to develop. This is mainly limited to the ECMWF with the GFS 
ensemble members still showing almost no rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The marine layer remains around 600-800 feet deep, but the stratus 
bank over the Pacific is breaking up. Confidence is moderate that
stratus will impact airports south of the Golden Gate Bridge with
stratus already filtering into SFO and OAK. Fog remains possible 
for MRY and SNS overnight. Some potential for drizzle directly
along the coast during the early morning hours which may impact
HAF, MRY, and SNS. 

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is pushing into SFO through the San
Bruno Gap earlier than the current guidance advised. This is
likely to persist through the remainder of the night before
clearing early tomorrow morning. Highest confidence in MVFR
conditions but, given that ceilings are on the MVFR-IFR border,
ceilings may lower into IFR territory overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Will likely stay clear for several hours 
longer than the terminal and be the first to clear. Otherwise 
similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...With the the early arrival of LIFR ceilings 
it's very likely that MRY and possibly SNS develop heavy mist or fog 
before sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 927 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Rough northwest seas (9-11 ft) continue into the weekend and begin
to subside to moderate (6-8 ft) by Monday. Strong northwesterly
winds and near gale force gusts also begin to diminish Friday with
fresh breezes and strong gusts returning by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Warmer and drier conditions continue through early next week. This 
increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to 
rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further 
increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of 
monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential 
for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able 
to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be 
the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability 
over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely 
monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination 
of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is 
important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 457 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast 
beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell
will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be 
especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with 
moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco 
Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across 
the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing 
conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off 
of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. 
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn 
your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide 
forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide 
flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a 
perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) 
enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion 
and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was 
established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above
normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks 
and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we
reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet
above normal.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 10 02:30:04 PDT 2026