FXUS66 KMTR 060651
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

 - Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming
   and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday

 - Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible
   Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream
cirrus clouds otherwise it's clear. Large scale mid to upper level 
low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale
500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey 
that'll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short
wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and
with the Sep sun angle it'll result in a warming trend beginning 
Monday Labor Day. 

Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal 
North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening. 

Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of 
time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday 
as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will 
include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along 
the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53
PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include 
messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will 
continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few
areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and
Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler.  

Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing  
over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance
continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper 
level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to 
our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even 
drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions with patches of stratus developing at the 
coast and along favored ridgelines through the night. Lower 
confidence in the model output that puts stratus development at the 
Monterey Bay, and to a lesser extent the North Bay valleys, through 
the night. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy 
onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions 
through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday 
morning. Gentle northwest winds will continue through the night 
before moderate westerly winds with strong gusts resume Sunday 
afternoon and evening. 

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at present. Model output continues to 
show the possibility of stratus development across the region but it 
hasn't been observed as of yet and the model output is overdoing the 
stratus extent offshore. Thus, have elected to leave out mention of 
ceilings through the night. Light winds continue through the 
overnight period with a gentle to moderate northwest breeze 
developing Sunday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in some 
stratus developing Sunday night into Monday morning, particularly at 
MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breezes continue
through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong
breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco, and
Monterey Bays each afternoon and evening into the beginning of
next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next
week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly
swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of
the upcoming week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the 
swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast.
Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all 
directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long 
period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a 
boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push 
much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the 
chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this 
weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and 
their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker 
waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. 
As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty 
nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're 
not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel 
to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be 
prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back 
on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Sep 6 00:30:03 PDT 2026