FXUS66 KMTR 061747
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
947 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Tonight through Friday)

The 00Z KOAK sounding found bone dry conditions through the 
troposphere. The precipitable water was measured at 0.34", which is 
near the 10th percentile for this time of year. The upper level 
pattern is mostly zonal with a weak ridge building. At the surface 
this pattern is supporting high pressure over the Rockies and lower 
pressure at the coast. There have been some gentle to moderate 
offshore winds as a result of this pressure gradient, although they 
were mostly overpowered by the sea breeze this afternoon. Expect dry 
conditions and comfortable temperatures to continue Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Saturday through next Thursday)

The conditions are fairly consistent through the weekend, although a 
weak mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on 
Sunday. This won't be a major factor for our weather, but 
temperatures will come down a couple degrees back to seasonal 
average. The more interesting feature is set to arrive mid to late 
next week. Ensembles are in good agreement that a deep trough will 
impact the coast and bring some rain. There is quite a bit of 
disagreement on the amount of moisture however. Ensemble 
precipitable water (PWAT) values are all over the place. Euro 
ensemble members are estimating PWAT between 0.4" to an inch, 
meanwhile GFS ensemble members estimate between 0.3 to 1.1 inches. 
Ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) values are not 
much better with a spread of 0.01 to 1.4 inches of rain. Needless to 
say, it is too early to pin down how much rain is expected, but the 
window opens around Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a
slight chance of fog developing in the North Bay late in the
overnight period to early Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the forecast period with
relatively light onshore flow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to continue 
through the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus 
developing this evening into Saturday morning. Light winds out of 
the northwest will shift to light south-southeast winds in the 
afternoon and evening hours before becoming more variable 
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 944 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Rough seas will build to very rough seas across our outer waters
late Saturday into the beginning of next week, sigh moderate to
rough seas across the inner waters. Expect moderate to fresh
northerly breezes over the inner and outer waters. Unsettled
weather is expected to develop by the second half of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly 
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed 
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring 
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, 
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM 
Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday
11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 
1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft 
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above 
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above 
normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions 
include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical 
tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes 
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will 
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with 
an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would 
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance 
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. 
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 6 12:30:03 PST 2026