FXUS66 KMTR 052313
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
413 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

 - Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming
   and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday

 - Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible
   Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches will be the main story 
through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane 
Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong 
rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. The ocean is not 
your friend this weekend, so enjoy the unofficial end of summer 
anywhere but the beach. Sensible weather wise, well below normal 
temperatures and onshore flow will continue through Sunday. The 
marine layer continues to be the lowest confidence aspect of the 
short term forecast. The 12Z sounding found a temperature inversion 
at 1,400 feet; however, boundary layer winds were not onshore and 
thus clouds struggled to form. The normal marine layer may continue 
to struggle to form through the weekend with little forcing in 
place. As upper-level ridging nudges in from the east on Monday, a 
gradual warming and drying trend will commence and the marine layer 
is slated to return.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

Global ensemble clusters have come into much better agreement with 
the long term forecast, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Upper-
level ridging will continue to build in from the east on Tuesday; 
simultaneously, a cutoff low will dig well off the West Coast and 
pickup what will likely be Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie. The farther 
west track of the low and a stronger ridge has led to a warmer and 
drier forecast. Even though we are now expected to be on the fringes 
of it, the upper-level pattern will act as a conveyor belt for 
remnant tropical moisture with cyclonic flow to the west and anti-
cyclonic flow to the east. Rainfall totals up to 0.10" can be 
expected, favoring coastal and higher terrain locations. 
Temperatures will moderate to near normal and climb up to 10 degrees 
above normal by Thursday, introducing minor to moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions with some mid-level pop-up clouds across
the region, extending through the evening hours and potentially 
beyond. Moderate to strong onshore winds continue through the 
afternoon and evening hours with winds diminishing overnight. 
Radiational fog processes will likely bring LIFR conditions to 
STS, and potentially into APC, while MVFR ceilings should dominate
at OAK and HAF. High resolution model output is starting to put 
ceilings within the Monterey Bay region, but the observed 
conditions last night are reducing confidence in the output. Will 
need to monitor for development of stratus tonight. Stratus should
mix out through Sunday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming
in the afternoon hours.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions 
through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday 
morning. Moderate westerly winds with strong gusts will persist into 
the evening hours, with winds turning gentle tonight before the 
moderate winds resume Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with moderate northwest winds through 
the evening hours. Tonight, high resolution model output is trying 
to put LIFR-IFR ceilings at the terminals. This is what they also
showed last night, but those ceilings didn't materialize. Thus, 
opted against chasing the models too aggressively and kept the 
terminals at VFR through the night. Will need to monitor how the 
situation evolves this evening. Any stratus that forms will 
dissipate through Sunday morning with breezy northwest winds 
resuming in the afternoon hours. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

North to northwest breezes will be gentle to moderate through the
beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are
expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco and Monterey Bays
today into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts
become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by
midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the
coastal waters through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1010 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect Friday-Monday as the swell 
from both Hurricane Marie and Hurricane Karina reaches the coast.
As these hurricane whip up the ocean, the waves travel over 1,000
miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low 
amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very 
intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long 
period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period 
swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's 
particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of
southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In
addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and 
breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the 
weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is 
high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught 
in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling 
the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this 
weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Sep 5 16:30:03 PDT 2026