FXUS66 KMTR 010706
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1206 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

 - Seasonally cool temperatures and breezy afternoon winds will 
   continue through Thursday. 

 - Gradual warming trend late this week and into the weekend,
   bringing pleasant conditions for the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1146 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026
(Tonight through Thursday)

Longwave trough over the western CONUS will remain in place through 
Wednesday, with weak bouts of energy passing through the flow at 500 
hPa. This pattern has been persistent over the last week, which has 
allowed the marine layer to be locked in place and kept temperatures 
below seasonal norms along the coast. As has been seen over the last 
few days, temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50s to 60s  
along coastal communities, with those inland in the 70s to mid 
80s. Marine layer will slowly erode along coastal areas from north
to south by midday, especially for areas north of the Monterey 
Bay Area. Although, communities located along Monterey Bay should 
largely remain locked under the marine layer through much, if not 
all, of the day. Some breaks in the clouds may allow the sun to 
break through briefly at times. We will also continue to see 
breezy conditions through the afternoon as weak bouts of energy 
continue to pass through the broad upper trough. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1146 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

We will continue to fall under the influence of the long wave trough 
on Thursday, bringing another day of cool and breezy conditions 
under the marine layer along the coast. Warmer temperatures and 
mostly clear skies will remain inland. 

Friday onward, we will start to see this long wave pattern break 
down over the area. We will also start to see some weak ridging 
develop going into the weekend. Thus, we will start to see a 
gradual warming trend through the weekend. Temperatures for 
communities along the coast will largely remain in the mid 60s to 
near 70, with more notable warming noted for inland areas. This 
will be especially true for inland areas south and east of the 
Monterey Bay Area where temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s 
will be seen. As a result, HeatRisk along the coastal communities 
will remain low (green), while inland areas will be minor 
(yellow). As was mentioned in the last forecast package, guidance 
is hinting at the potential for another long wave trough to 
develop over the western CONUS. Although, CPC continues to 
highlight the area under favorability for above normal 
temperatures into the middle of next week, potentially bringing 
more summer-like weather to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

MVFR CIGs last along the coast and around the Monterey Bay. The 
breezy winds across the area will reduce into the night, becoming 
light to moderate. CIGs fall to IFR levels in the late night at MRY 
and along portions of the immediate coast, with some IFR CIGs 
forming at APC. Cloud cover erodes at APC in the mid morning with 
other sites seeing clearing in the late morning and early afternoon, 
leading to widespread VFR. Winds build again into Wednesday 
afternoon, but only to moderate to breezy levels.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west winds 
reduce into the night, and become light by the early morning as 
scattered low clouds move through the area. Cloud cover thins into 
the mid morning as winds become more moderate. Expect winds to 
increase further in the mid afternoon, peaking around 16 kts before 
become light again into the night. Wednesday night stratus is 
expected to get close to SFO once again. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs continue to affect the terminals 
this evening. MRY CIGS looks to fall to IFR levels in the early 
morning as winds continue to reduce. CIGs erodes in the late morning 
and early afternoon around the Monterey Bay as moderate winds build. 
There is still some uncertainty on the clearing at the immediate 
coast, a repeat of Tuesday is still possible.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Strong northerly winds continue for the northern outer waters
while weaker, yet still gusty winds affect the rest of the waters.
Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer
waters through Wednesday, a bit weaker winds for Thursday and
Friday. Moderate northerly to westerly breezes will prevail
elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue through
Wednesday before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM....Gunkel 
AVIATION...Kidwell 
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jul 1 02:30:04 PDT 2026