FXUS66 KMTR 170456
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

 - Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening

 - Breezy onshore winds through Friday 

 - Gradual cooling and moistening trend through the upcoming 
   weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
(This evening through Friday night)

Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this 
writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of 
increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough 
off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will 
result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and 
evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the 
interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected
to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the
Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details. 

The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet 
overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds 
develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. 
That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late 
tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will 
retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning. 

By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with 
temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus, 
we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to 
middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the 
warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely 
to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into 
the inland valleys as the marine influences become better 
established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or
drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high 
enough to include drizzle in the official forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the 
weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth
of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon 
moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and 
Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical 
Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a 
hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to 
move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region.
However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this 
weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture 
northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on 
Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking 
ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with 
the latest forecast information over the coming days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR with stratus developing offshore. HAF is currently the only site 
where stratus has redeveloped but stratus is expected to expand and 
move inland overnight. Pushed the timing of stratus arrival to 
MRY/SNS back slightly as stratus is developing more slowly than 
models initially suggested. Confidence is highest that stratus will 
reach HAF, MRY, and SNS overnight with diminishing confidence that 
stratus will reach STS, APC, OAK, or SFO.  For now, left stratus in 
the TAF for those airports with any potential development occurring 
much later tonight. Initial model guidance suggests an early return 
of stratus along the coast tomorrow night. Otherwise, diurnally 
breezy winds continue but winds should be slightly weaker during the 
afternoon/evening tomorrow than they were today.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with low confidence that MVFR-IFR conditions 
will develop overnight. Stratus is attempting to redevelop along the 
coast but has not managed to push into the SF Bay yet. Model 
guidance has overestimated stratus development this evening which is 
decreasing confidence in the extent of stratus coverage overnight. 
The HRRR continues to indicate SFO and the SF Bay could remain 
stratus free tonight while OAK sees periods of overcast conditions. 
For now, left MVFR CIGs in the TAF but confidence is low.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming IFR-LIFR overnight. Stratus is 
arriving later than initially expected so have pushed arrival times 
back slightly. Current thinking is that stratus will initially be 
IFR before lowering to LIFR during the early morning hours. There is 
some potential for decreases in visibility and fog after 12Z. 
Confidence is moderate that SNS will clear during the afternoon 
while MRY's potential clearing is questionable. Model guidance shows 
stratus lingering along the coast for much of the day which may keep 
overcast conditions at MRY through the entire TAF period. Kept the 
MRY TAF slightly more optimistic with a brief period of afternoon 
clearing before an early evening stratus return but this may need to 
be amended.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Moderate to strong northwesterly winds gradually diminish through
the day on Friday. Moderate to rough seas and hazardous
conditions for small crafts persist through Friday across the
coastal waters. Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and
northwesterly breezes diminish.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jul 16 22:30:03 PDT 2026