FXUS66 KMTR 020908
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

 - Moderate HeatRisk in the interior through Monday with some
   patches lingering through the next week

 - Near critical fire weather threat across the interior North and
   East Bays, and the Diablo and Santa Lucia ranges through Monday

 - Hazardous beach conditions across the Pacific Coast with an
   increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the
   afternoon

 - Strong and gusty winds develop over coastal waters north of Pt
   Reyes through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026
(Today and tonight)

An upper level disturbance will pass over the PacNW today, with 
quasi-zonal flow to weak troughing setting up over northern CA. To 
our southwest west, high pressure is being suppressed over the Desert 
Southwest and southern CA. What does that mean for us in the short 
term? Well, it means the marine layer will remain compressed as a 
result, at about 500ft and hugging the San Mateo and Central Coast 
line which means cloudy skies, patchy dense fog, and perhaps coastal 
drizzle through the mid morning. Skies will then clear, leading to a 
mainly sunny day across the region. Moderate HeatRisk is expected 
today for interior locations where temperatures reach the mid 90s to 
low 100s. Elsewhere, temperatures rise into the low 70s to mid 80s 
unless you're immediately along the coast where temperatures 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Little change for Monday as the aforementioned upper level trough 
pushes east, allowing the pattern to change from quasi-zonal and 
troughy to quasi-zonal with high pressure building in. The forecast 
will essentially be on repeat, with perhaps interior temperatures 
warming up a few degrees. Heading into  midweek, there are a few 
items that could affect temperatures. The first being onshore flow 
ushering in some cooler air; however, it will be dependent on how 
quickly the high builds in. If it is able to build, 850mb temps look 
to be fairly warm in the deterministic guidance. This means temps 
may need to be bumped up a few degrees inland instead of showing a 
subtle cooling trend. Beyond that high pressure looks to build and 
hold leading to a warming trend for late week and into the
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR at all terminals is expected to persist past midnight with 
Monterey Bay terminals expected to develop IFR ceilings soon after. 
A struggling marine layer along with a weak fetch of offshore flow 
that will develop in the pre-dawn hours and continue through the day 
Sunday should keep the interior terminals VFR through the forecast 
period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low confidence in chances of MVFR/IFR 
ceilings developing in the hours surrounding sunrise Sunday 
morning. VFR continuing through the overnight and Sunday seems 
more likely where the potential for more potent offshore flow is 
highest.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...HiRes guidance has high confidence in 
IFR/LIFR ceilings developing with less confidence in exact 
timing, most likely will be soon after midnight with VFR by early 
afternoon and stratus returning soon after sunset Sunday evening. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 926 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Rough to very rough (9-14 ft) wind driven seas will continue to
build through Sunday from strong to near gale force northwest
winds. Our northern coastal zones and the Big Sur coastline will
have frequent gale force gusts and occasional storm force gusts.
The southerly long period swell will continue to weaken tonight
into Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 452 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through the
weekend and potentially into next week. Temperatures remain around
10 to 15 degrees above normal across the interior through early
next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. No major changes to
the forecasted dry conditions. Daytime humidity retention remains
poor across the interior (25-30%) with humidity values dropping 
into the 10s across the interior Central Coast, East Bay 
Hills/Valleys, and the higher elevations. Portions of the interior
Central Coast may see daytime humidity values drop into the single
digits this weekend into early next week. Overnight RH recovery 
remains poor at locations above 2,000 feet with values between 25 
to 40% expected with some favored locations struggling to reach 
even 25%. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, 
highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, the Santa 
Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal 
drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also
transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which 
fire behavior may remain active. Energy Release Components (ERC) 
are projected to climb above the 97th percentile across the 
interior Central Coast and Mid Coast to Mendocino (North Bay)
zone. ERC values are rapidly climbing across the Diablo-Santa 
Cruz zone (Diablo Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains) with values
approaching the 97th percentile by next week. Diurnally breezy 
onshore winds are expected along the coast, mountain gaps and 
passes, and along the ridgelines each afternoon/evening. With 
near critically dry conditions and above normal temperatures 
expected, individuals across these areas are advised to avoid 
activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise
extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially 
where fuels, topography, and weather align. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Aug 2 02:30:02 PDT 2026