FXUS66 KMTR 291112
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
412 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
   persist into the middle of the week

 - Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
   work week

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
   Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 
(Tonight through Tuesday)

The upper level pattern over the are continues to predominately 
be dominated by troughing across the western United States. This 
will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through the work week. 
As the main trough system shifts to the east, a short wave trough 
will develop along the western periphery of the main trough 
following the west coast. The short wave trough will develop into 
a cut off low by Monday afternoon. Daytime highs today should be 
largely similar to those seen yesterday, with perhaps a few 
degrees of warming in the interior North and East Bays and a few 
degrees of cooling across the warmest spots of southern Monterey 
County.

The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night 
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and 
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the 
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will 
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical 
tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to 
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along 
the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing 
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 
Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never
turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Troughing will continue through the work week transitioning to 
zonal flow for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual warming 
trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the beginning
of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement towards a 
ridge building up across the Western United States, with the 
interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern 
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for 
our region, still to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/ continues to develop on satellite
imagery. Stratus mixes out late morning to early afternoon
otherwise VFR prevails today. Coastal stratus redevelops tonight 
and Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR except stratus /MVFR/ develops tonight and 
Tuesday morning. West wind 5 knots increasing to 17 to 25 knots in
the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing to 10 knots or 
less tonight and Tuesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...San Jose Airport VFR, light southeast
wind becoming northwest 12 knots late morning and afternoon. Wind
decreasing and becoming light and variable late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Oakland Airport VFR except stratus /MVFR/ develops tonight
and Tuesday morning. Light and variable wind becoming west 13 to 20
knots late morning and afternoon then decreasing to light and 
variable wind tonight and Tuesday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ mixing out to VFR by 
late morning and afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelops and moves
inland tonight and Tuesday morning. West winds 5 to 15 knots. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Gusty northwest winds will continue mainly over the northern and
outer coastal waters resulting in hazardous seas for small craft
early in the week. Winds and seas will ease over the inner coastal
waters from mid to late week. Long period southwest swell will
persist through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell 
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves 
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically 
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of 
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will 
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially 
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being 
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the 
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if 
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 29 04:30:04 PDT 2026