FXUS66 KMTR 111948
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1248 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will peak this afternoon

 - Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather through midweek

 - Warming and drying trend midweek and beyond

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Low clouds have retreated to the coast as the marine layer 
compressed overnight and into early this morning to around 1,000 
feet. As high pressure continues to strengthen over the Desert 
Southwest and 850 mb temperatures warm to 20-22 deg C, 
temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s 
across the interior, upper 60s to low 80s just inland away from 
the coast, and locations along the immediate coastline in the 
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Stratus is likely to return to the coast this evening and spread 
locally inland through Tuesday morning as a shallow marine layer 
remains in place. Mist or light coastal drizzle will also be 
possible tonight into Tuesday morning.

A gradual cool down, especially over the North Bay and Bay Area, 
is expected on Tuesday with afternoon maximum temperatures in the 
70s to lower 80s across the interior and upper 50s to lower 70s. 
Interior areas of the Central Coast are likely to see the 80s to 
near 90 deg F as the mid/upper level ridge across the Desert 
Southwest begins to shift eastward ahead of an approaching trough.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The aforementioned mid/upper level trough will cool temperatures 
even further on Wednesday as a cut-off low pushes inland across 
Oregon and northern California. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will
also develop each afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 25 to
40 miles per hour along the coast, through gaps and passes, and 
across the ridgetops through late week. There remains a chance of 
drizzle or very light Wednesday through early Thursday morning, 
especially along the coast and favored upslope regions of the 
coastal ranges. However, confidence of this occuring has 
diminished given the northern track of the mid/upper level low. 

Zonal flow then returns for the remainder of the work week and 
into next weekend with dry conditions and moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR everywhere except HAF which stratus continues to prevail. Winds 
pick up during the afternoon and evening, peaking between 10-15 
knots. Moderate confidence in timing of stratus return tonight with 
a more compressed marine layer likely to lead to a smaller stratus 
footprint. A more compressed marine layer (1000 ft) would support a 
higher potential for IFR potentially LIFR CIGs tonight across the 
region. Highest confidence in lowered visibility and LIFR CIGs along 
the coast with IFR CIGs likely across the interior. There is a low 
chance for stratus to make it to LVK but confidence was too low to 
include in TAF. 

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy onshore winds around 15 knots expected this 
afternoon before winds ease overnight. Low to moderate confidence in 
timing of stratus arrival to SFO for tonight. Current thinking is 
that stratus will gradually fill in across the bay towards SFO with 
a later arrival around 10Z more likely. LAMP guidance suggests 
stratus could arrive as early as 04Z but confidence is low. It is 
also possible that another "donut hole" could form around SFO 
wherein the bay fills in with stratus and the actually airport stays 
VFR as was seen this morning. A few models do show this scenario 
occurring but fill the hole in by 12Z.

SFO Bridge Approach....Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate confidence that VFR will persist 
through this afternoon but there is a slight chance that stratus 
returns earlier given the substantial stratus deck just offshore. 
Breezy onshore winds continue through this evening before weakening 
overnight. Stratus returns around 00/01Z with CIGs to lower from IFR 
to LIFR overnight. Visibility is likely to be impacted with some 
potential for fog to develop early tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 926 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026

Winds have subsided everywhere except the far northern outer 
waters where occasional strong gusts continue. A moderate to fresh
northwest breeze will continue over the waters through midweek. 
Seas subside but remain moderate with 4 to 6 foot seas through 
midweek. Winds increase and seas build starting mid-week with gale
force winds likely starting Friday and continuing through the 
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon May 11 14:30:03 PDT 2026