FXUS66 KMTR 120215
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
615 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

 - Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday

 - Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions 
   this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)

The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon 
with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough 
deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push 
the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal 
temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus, 
temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this 
afternoon's maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off 
low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will 
develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California. 
Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any 
impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is 
forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday 
night into Friday morning.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety 
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf 
Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)

The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid-
to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area 
and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will 
increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just 
ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward 
with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be 
strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15% 
chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday 
associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals 
from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the 
North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San
Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, 
and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito
Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys.

On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over 
the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday 
night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be 
noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across 
most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper
40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be 
mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor 
nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the 
wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast 
information as things have the potential to change. 

Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday 
with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these 
systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing 
the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back 
for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled 
weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and early 
overnight models. Models try to hint at the return of fog and 
stratus tonight, favoring KSTS and perhaps the coast East Bay 
terminals. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode by mid 
morning, leading to another VFR day. 


Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence in the forecast as models 
struggle to determine if reduced vis and cig return. Opted to keep 
the mention of MVFR cigs but that could be too bullish. Think the 
timing for it is reasonable, with VFR conditions returning by mid to 
late morning. Southerly winds gradually increase throughout the day, 
potentially getting to 10-15kt for the afternoon. 


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...The forecast is on repeat tonight. VFR 
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds 
will remain offshore tonight, then will shift onshore after sunrise 
and will shift back to offshore after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 615 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Conditions start to deteriorate today with wave heights building
to  above 10 ft by this evening. Further deterioration is expected
Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold frontal passage on Friday.
Moderate rain and strong SW winds with gale force gusts are
expected  Friday into Saturday as the front moves through. By
Saturday,  incoming NW swell from a distant hurricane force low
will result in  high seas with significant wave heights between 25
to 30 feet. Wave  heights decrease slightly Sunday before another
round of high seas  takes place Monday. Small crafts will sustain
heavy damage and may  not survive in these conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at 
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will 
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will 
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very 
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong 
rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking 
wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell 
arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. 
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in 
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very 
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the 
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the 
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new 
round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 
PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM 
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast 
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, 
long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the 
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and 
rip currents. 

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for 
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 11 18:30:03 PST 2026