FXUS66 KMTR 021902
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1202 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026

 - Cooler temperatures through the early part of next week with a
   chance for drizzle and light rain, mainly along the coast

 - Widespread stratus persists overnight and into the morning
   through the weekend

 - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

Satellite imagery showed widespread stratus across the region this 
morning, in addition to high clouds streaming over the SF Bay Area, 
gradually eroding across the interior regions into the afternoon 
hours. This comes as a upper level low builds and strengthens off 
the West Coast, allowing the marine layer to expand and reinforcing 
the stratus development across the region. For today, there are some 
indications that the stratus layer will continue to scatter out, 
particularly in the inland valleys, but with the interaction with 
the higher clouds complicating the heating profile, this isn't a 
high confidence forecast. As it stands, high temperatures today 
range from the lower to middle 70s in the interior valleys, around 
80 in the southern Salinas Valley, and the upper 50s to middle 60s 
along the Pacific coast and the Bays. Lower those interior 
temperatures around 5-10 degrees if the stratus layer does not 
scatter out today. For tonight, stratus clouds will return to the 
inland regions, with temperatures dropping into the middle 40s to 
middle 50s across most of the region, with some lower 40s possible 
in the coldest regions of southern Monterey County.

Conditions will be similarly cool on Sunday as the upper level low 
starts to edge into California, as high temperatures dip into the 
middle 60s to lower 70s for the inland valleys, while remaining in 
the upper 50s to middle 60s along the coast and the Bays.

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Sunday evening 
due to long period northwesterly swell, an increasing risk of 
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. See the BEACHES section for 
more information.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

The upper level low moves across California through Tuesday, 
resulting in an extended period of cool temperatures, thick marine 
layers, extensive stratus decks, and a slight chance for light rain 
and drizzle across the region, but mainly at the coast and within 
topographically favored locations. As the previous forecaster noted, 
residual precipitable water from an extension of the jet stream far 
to the north of Hawaii will move into the Bay Area, with model 
output showing around 0.9-1" of precipitable water coming to the SF 
Bay Area Monday night through Tuesday. This is above the 90th 
percentile value for precipitable water for this time of year. 
Rainfall totals for this period are generally paltry, with the 
ensemble model spread at San Francisco International Airport 
basically anywhere between a trace to near a tenth of an inch with a 
couple of outlier ensemble members pouring down with up to a half of 
an inch of rain by Tuesday night. 

By Wednesday, the upper level low moves into the Great Basin and 
southern Rockies with ridging building back behind it, leading to a 
warming and drying trend in the region with highs rising to the 70s 
and 80s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026

MVFR CIGs across much of the region this morning. These 
conditions will gradually return to VFR by early afternoon for 
inland terminals. The exception will be coastal TAF sites where we
are very likely to see MVFR conditions persist throughout much of
the TAF period. Onshore winds return this afternoon before 
diminishing in the evening. Greater confidence in MVFR CIGs 
returning early this evening to coastal adjacent valleys and 
spreading inland across most valleys overnight as the marine layer
deepens. 

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR. Medium to high confidence of VFR conditions 
returning by early afternoon with onshore winds also increasing. 
MVFR CIGs are forecast to return this evening and persist through 
Sunday morning before clearing occurs early afternoon. There is less 
than a 20% probability for IFR CIGS early Sunday morning. Onshore 
winds will once again increase Sunday afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...May see an earlier clearing across the 
approach Sunday morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR. Medium to high confidence for MRY to 
remain MVFR while SNS returns to VFR for a brief period this 
afternoon. Onshore winds will also increase before diminishing after 
sunset. MVFR CIGs are forecast to return early evening and persist 
through Sunday morning with a 20%-30% probability of IFR CIGs.  

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026

A fresh to strong NW breeze will continue across the northern 
most outer waters through this afternoon, diminishing to moderate 
to fresh afterwards. Seas subside this afternoon and into Sunday 
as winds continue to diminish. Moderate seas and a gentle to 
moderate NW breeze prevail Sunday into the early work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026

Long period northwest swell, with periods of 15 seconds or above, is 
expected to arrive along the Pacific coast today. These long period 
swells increase the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, 
particularly as the period between swell impulses results in lulls 
of around 20 to 30 minutes before larger sets of waves arrive. Due 
to the dangers, a Beach Hazards Statement for all Pacific coast 
beaches comes into effect at 11 AM today and remains in effect until 
11 PM Sunday night. Never turn your back to the ocean! Don't be 
fooled by calmer seas; observe the waves for at least 20 minutes 
before approaching the coast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 2 12:30:03 PDT 2026