FXUS66 KMTR 160849 CCA
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
149 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased 
   risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 
(Today through Wednesday)

High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing
similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep 
and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly 
below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive 
cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to 
the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. 
Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, 
North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will 
remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see 
Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, 
corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses 
amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, 
pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work
or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration.
We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting
time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying 
hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 
10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas.

The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling 
trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 
2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with 
marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and 
onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today.

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas 
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with 
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us 
the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to
be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, 
and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In 
addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to 
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with 
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the 
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to 
never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level
trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move
across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain
over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area,
keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure
system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds
(breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland
cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 
70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees 
below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and
along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by 
Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across
the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer 
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding again and will impact most terminals 
through the night, with a low to moderate confidence of stratus 
impacts at LVK. The breezy to gusty onshore pattern winds will 
continue to diminish and remain light through Tuesday morning. As 
the stratus retreats to the immediate coast, winds will pick up 
again with a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the region. 
Low to moderate confidence that HAF sees some brief scattering 
Tuesday afternoon. Some stratus expansion inland is expected 
towards Tuesday evening, although greater confidence is expected 
after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze 
through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the 
evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on 
stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over 
the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the 
East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden 
Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. 
May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that 
forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west-
northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus at OAK at present and will 
move southwards towards SJC, impacting the terminal within the next 
couple of hours. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning as breezy 
northwest winds develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus 
will likely return to OAK sometime Tuesday evening, but stay away 
from SJC through Wednesday early morning, beyond the end of the 
24-hour TAF period.

Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus continues through late Tuesday 
morning with breezy onshore winds becoming light overnight. A gentle 
to moderate northwest breeze will develop at the terminals Tuesday 
afternoon with gusty winds possible at SNS. Stratus will return to 
the terminals Tuesday evening. Moderate confidence in timing at SNS 
as the last couple of nights have seen fingers of stratus impacting 
the terminal around 23-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light northwest winds continue through the night with a low
south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.
Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the
northern inner waters and the southern waters. Fresh to strong
north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and
Wednesday, bringing rough seas to the region. Otherwise, seas
remain slight to moderate into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions 
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped 
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast 
beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check 
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up 
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching 
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into 
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest 
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay 
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside 
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your 
back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tangen
LONG TERM....Tangen
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 16 04:30:02 PDT 2026