FXUS66 KMTR 080051
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
451 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through this evening for
   Pacific Coast beaches.

 - Patchy fog Sunday morning, especially for North Bay Valleys.

 - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night.

 - Moderate confidence for widespread rain totals 0.2-0.5" 
   Tuesday into Wednesday.

 - Increasing confidence for additional rain next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

As of 1:15 PM, visible satellite depicts thin high clouds
dispersed throughout the Bay Area moving into Central California
with some additional patchy altocumulus and mildly hazy skies. As
yesterday's weak upper low has moved southeastward, 500 mb 
heights are expected to increase slightly, making the marine layer
slightly shallower (around 600-800 feet deep) than this morning. 

Coastal stratus is expected to return back to the coast late this
evening with ceilings below 500 feet, slowly moving inland 
throughout the night. As mid level clouds thin out, cooling in the
inland valleys will allow fog to develop at the surface even 
before the marine stratus reaches into inland areas. Widespread 
visibility reductions and mist are expected throughout the Bay 
Area within the marine layer with patchy fog, especially in the 
North Bay Valleys. Coastal status is less likely in the Monterey 
Bay as clouds could be shadowed by the Santa Cruz Mountains with 
Northwesterly surface slow. Radiation fog could still develop in 
the Salinas Valley as winds will be light. Low clouds partially 
clear out to the coast late in the morning yielding to briefly 
partly cloudy skies for the East Bay and south of San Francisco. 
More widespread and deeper clouds surge into the Bay Area in the 
afternoon, associated with the weakening front moving southward 
from the Pacific Northwest. Cloudy skies overtake the Bay Area by 
evening with a slight (10-20%) chance for spotty drizzle through 
around midnight.

For this system, not much change in the rainfall forecast through
Monday: 20-40% chance of measurable rainfall along the North Bay 
US-101 corridor into Santa Rosa. For totals above 0.10", around a
10% chance for the southern Marin Hills, with increasing chances 
farther northward, up to 50% chance for the hills north of the 
Russian River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Partly cloudy skies linger Monday, with the next opportunity for
rainfall beginning Monday night as a shortwave trough moves into
Northern and Central California. Best chances for widespread 
light to locally moderate rainfall will occur during the day
Tuesday with scattered showers possible Tuesday night through
Wednesday afternoon. Models are closing in on a moderate
confidence rainfall range around 0.2-0.5" for coastal and valley
cities across the region with higher totals possible locally in
the coastal slopes.

An upper level ridge will create briefly quiet and less cloudy
conditions Thursday and Friday with clouds returning Saturday and
increasing model agreement on a colder and deeper trough from the
Gulf of Alaska to bring another soaking rainfall throughout the 
region. The NBM brings high temperatures lower elevations into 
the mid to upper 50s. There remains uncertainty in the forecast 
though current 850mb temperatures appear cold enough to deliver a 
dusting of snow to the tallest peaks in Monterey County.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

Low clouds have retreated to near/off the coast this afternoon and
are less extensive than this time yesterday. There is also an 
extensive area of high clouds moving overhead. Tonight, confidence
is high that marine stratus will expand once again towards the 
coast and gradually move inland under onshore flow. However, 
models are not quite as extensive with IFR/LIFR conditions as last
night, along with a slightly later onset. That said, most 
terminals in the area will see deteriorating conditions by late 
tonight or early Sunday morning. Fog/LIFR is most likely near 
STS/APC with lower chances elsewhere. Conditions should improve by
Sunday afternoon with a return to widespread VFR conditions. A 
weakening frontal boundary will bring increased mid level clouds 
on Sunday. While rain is generally not anticipated aside from 
light sprinkles Sunday evening, the front will help promote 
onshore flow and a return of low ceilings. Generally onshore to 
NW winds this afternoon will become lighter and more variable 
overnight, then back to W to NW Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected through the evening.
Marine stratus will increase along the coast tonight, with high
confidence that it will push into the terminal late overnight 
into Sunday morning. Once again, IFR conditions due to low 
ceilings are expected, but can't rule out brief LIFR, along with 
reductions in visibility from mist. Should see improving 
conditions by 20-21Z on Sunday. However, conditions may deteriorate
Sunday evening. Winds will mainly be WNW around 10 kts or less.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...It will remain VFR through the evening
with deteriorating conditions overnight. High confidence that IFR
stratus should move into near OAK 08-12Z, but is expected to 
arrive later at SJC (moderate confidence), closer to 12Z before 
becoming IFR. Once again, low chances of fog at both sites, but 
with slightly higher potential at SJC. Light NW winds becoming 
variable overnight, then back to NW Sunday afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore flow may bring brief MVFR/IFR
ceilings this evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR tonight, with
potential for IFR/LIFR low stratus or fog developing early Sunday
morning, although confidence is low. Winds light NW this evening,
becoming variable overnight returning to NW Sunday afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

Generally light to gentle north to northwest winds across the
waters today, with light west and southwest winds across the
norther outer waters through Sunday. Generally moderate seas
continue through Sunday with some marginally rough seas in the
southern waters through the evening. Fresh north winds off the
Coast of Big Sur will diminish to moderate this evening, but
strengthen again to a fresh to strong breeze Sunday into early
Monday. Winds continue to strengthen and seas build for most of
the waters Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today at all Pacific Coast
beaches, through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Westerink
LONG TERM....Westerink
AVIATION...Tangen
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 7 20:30:03 PST 2026