FXUS66 KMTR 051748
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
948 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

 - Slightly warmer weather arrives today

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to reach the upper 60s to 
low 70s near the coast this afternoon with the interior warming into 
the low-to-mid 70s. This is as high pressure over the eastern 
Pacific builds over the Bay Area and north Central Coast resulting 
in mostly sunny skies and temperatures warmer than normal. No 
updates are needed to the ongoing forecast at this time. 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Today and tonight)

A weak ridge is building over California. At the surface 
a 1028 mb high pressure center is parked over southern Idaho, 
with an inverted trough along the California Coast. SFO is 
reporting pressure around 1020 mb. The gradient between these two
mesoscale features is supporting some NNE, offshore winds 
tonight. Mt. St. Helena is reporting NNE winds with gusts to 30 
mph at the moment, which should increase a bit as the diurnal 
offshore gradient effect reaches it's max in the pre-dawn hours.

This ridge is bringing a warmer air mass and large scale
sinking air. As an example of this, the 00Z sounding found a 
clear subsidence inversion in the middle troposphere. The 850 mb 
temperature is around the 25th percentile for this time of year, 
while 500 mb temperature is around the 75th percentile.

As this ridge continues to build through the day, the warmer 
temperatures will descend closer to the surface. Max temperatures 
this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday for 
most. Despite the warmer than normal air mass, another round of high 
clouds should keep inland temperatures from getting above the mid 
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

The ridging pattern is here to stay for 5-7 days and the 
weak offshore gradient will stick around through Friday before 
flipping back onshore. That means the weather will be pretty boring 
for a while. Temperatures will be in the 60s along the coast and 70s 
inland into the middle of next week with no chance of rain. There is 
growing confidence that a deep trough will bring rain back in the 
forecast in the 7-14 day window. The ECMWF ensemble mean shows 2" of 
rain at SFO between Wednesday the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. 
That's about normal for the entire month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Patchy ground fog and stratus has eroded this morning, 
leaving us with clear skies and VFR conditions while writing this 
discussion. Looking at satellite, high clouds are slowly creeping 
into northwestern CA and should slowly sag into the Bay Area late 
this morning and into the afternoon hours. Models depict high clouds 
clearing by the evening and early overnight hours, leaving us with 
mainly clear skies overnight. The forecast challenge for the period 
will be if we get any fog or low cloud development tonight. Given 
the trends at KAPC and KSTS, opted to continue to hint at some 
patchy ground fog and low cloud from roughly 11Z-15Z, though the 
onset could be a bit earlier. Expect VFR conditions for all 
terminals shortly after sunrise / by mid morning. High clouds look 
to return to the forecast. Moderate to high confidence in the 
forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...Light offshore winds should prevail through the 
morning and into the early afternoon hours. The seabreeze is 
expected to return this afternoon, likely between 22Z and 0Z, where 
winds will generally be around 10 to 15kt. Winds ease into the 
evening hours, becoming light and potentially variable after 6Z-8Z 
time frame. Weak offshore flow develops mid morning, with onshore 
flow returning tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions prevail, and we'll 
see a mix of clear skies and high clouds through the period. 
Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions are expected to continue 
through the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus 
developing this evening into Friday morning. Light winds out of the 
northwest will shift to light south-southeast winds in the afternoon 
and evening hours before transitioning back to northwest Friday 
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Moderate to fresh north winds prevail through Friday and slacken
to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday and Monday. Moderate to
rough seas prevail through the weekend, though the very rough seas
across the northern outer waters north of Pigeon Point late Sunday
into Monday morning. Dry weather is forecast through early next
week, with rain chances arriving by mid to late week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly 
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed 
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring 
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, 
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide  is 
expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 
11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 
ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above 
normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal 
(7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft 
MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) 
at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 
12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 
PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge 
that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High 
tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific 
Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, 
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific 
coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip 
currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would 
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance 
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. 
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...KR/FR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 5 10:30:03 PST 2026