FXUS66 KMTR 121152
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
352 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

 - Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue today

 - Rain returns to the region Friday into next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
   Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Today and tonight)

The West Coast sits between a ridge centered over the Northern 
Rockies, a deep low pressure system moving in from the waters south 
of Alaska, and a satellite trough digging into the waters off of 
southern California. Through the course of the day, the system of 
troughs will slowly nudge the ridge axis northwards into the central 
parts of Canada. For now, warm and dry conditions will continue but 
there will be a noticeable dip in the high temperatures ahead of 
more unsettled weather in the medium to long term. Morning lows 
lie in the middle to upper 40s for the inland valleys and the 
lower to middle 50s for the coastal and Bayshore regions. Highs 
will range in the lower to middle 60s across the inland valleys, 
the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the Bays and the lower to 
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Afternoon winds will be 
noticeably breezier than what we saw yesterday as the incoming 
lows tighten the pressure gradient; gusts of 25 to 35 mph are 
possible along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. 
Prefrontal showers are possible along the coastal ranges tonight 
into Friday morning, a precursor to an opening storm door through 
the rest of the forecast.

Hazardous beach conditions are forecast for the Pacific coast 
through the next couple of days with dangerous conditions expected 
to develop over the weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement is currently 
in effect for the Pacific coast for breaking waves 15 to 20 feet 
along with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, 
while High Surf Warnings will go into effect Friday night into early 
Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a 
high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. In addition, coastal 
flooding concerns due to high tides persist at the bayshore 
locations along San Pablo, San Francisco, and southern Monterey Bays 
through Friday, along with coastal flooding along the Pacific coast 
due to wave runup impacts on Saturday. See the BEACHES section for 
more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

A pattern change will bring bouts of rain beginning Friday into next 
week as a series of storms move through the region. Most of the 
rainfall from these systems is targeted at the Pacific Northwest 
into the North Coast. For the Bay Area and Central Coast, the 
impacts are not expected to be as severe, at least for the initial 
rounds. The model solutions are converging onto three systems coming 
through the region within the seven-day outlook. The first system 
comes into the North Bay Friday morning, extending into the SF Bay 
region in the late morning and early afternoon hours before 
dissipating as it comes into the Central Coast later in the 
afternoon, with lingering showers into the night. Rain totals from 
this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.2" for the North Bay, 
0.3-0.8" for the SF Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur 
coast, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of Monterey and San 
Benito Counties. A second system comes through Sunday into Monday, 
and while the rain totals are still being refined, the pattern looks 
to be broadly similar to Friday's system. Towards the end of the 
seven-day outlook, model output is showing a third system coming in 
for the middle of next week, with the exact details still uncertain.

With it being so early in the rain season, potential flooding 
concerns will be minimal with the main impact being slick roadways. 
The possibility of strong gusty winds is also worth keeping an eye 
on. While wind gusts are not expected to reach Advisory criteria at 
this time, gusts of 25 to 35 mph can cause trees or branches to fall 
and may result in isolated power outages or slicker roads as leaves 
fall from trees and get wet. Another concern will be the risk of 
thunderstorms embedded within the main rain band and potentially in 
the post-frontal environment. The cold low will be centered to our 
north, but will still bring cool enough air aloft to bring the 
MUCAPE values up to 100-300 J/kg. That would be within the top 10% 
of soundings at Oakland for practically any time of year. There is 
also strong shear aloft enhanced by the region coming within the 
left exit region of a jet streak visible at the 500 mb level, where 
the decelerating winds and vertical circulation support an area of 
upper level divergence, which would support convective activity in 
the area. A slight (15%) chance of thunder has been added to the SF 
Bay Area for Friday morning and afternoon as a result. This may need 
to be adjusted as the forecast evolves and further model runs come 
in. 

Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean 
towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late 
November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil 
saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

Patchy stratus dominates the satellite picture across the coast, 
although with southerly winds most terminals are avoiding 
ceilings. There may be some passing MVFR impacts from these 
clouds through the morning hours. Today is a transition day as a 
cold front gradually approaches. While the main wind and rain 
impacts are just outside the current TAF window, we will see high 
clouds roll in and eventually lower as southerly winds gradually 
increase tonight. 

Vicinity of SFO...The subtle wind shift from SSE to SSW over the
last 24 hours has made a big difference. The Santa Cruz mountains
are now blocking the clouds from reaching the terminal, and there
is a 70% chance VFR conditions persist through the morning. The
bigger story today is the southerly winds. As the cold front
approaches the gradient will tighten, and it's very likely the
southerly wind direction persists through the day. By Friday 
morning the southerly winds will increase above 10 kts before 
shifting back westerly in the afternoon as showers push through.

SFO Bridge Approach...SJC and the entire approach are also clear
and should stay that way this morning..

Monterey Bay Terminals...The short term forecast is tricky. MRY 
is nearly surrounded by MVFR ceilings, but a small clearing has 
remarkably kept the terminal VFR through the night. There's no 
guarantee that good luck will continue, and I included a tempo 
group for MVFR ceilings through 16Z. After any low clouds clear 
high cloud coverage will gradually increase before mid clouds move
in late in the TAF window. As with the other terminals, winds 
will tend more southerly as the day goes on and the bigger weather
day is Friday with strong southerly winds and showers with frontal
passage.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

As a cold front approaches the coast, fresh to strong southerly
winds will increase to near gale force over the next 24 hours.
After the front passes on Friday winds will shift to westerly and
decrease to a moderate breeze. Meanwhile WNW swell from a distant
hurricane force low will build to very high with significant wave
heights up to 25 feet by Saturday morning. Wave heights decrease
slightly Sunday before another round of high seas moves into the
coastal waters on Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage
and may not survive in these extreme sea states.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at 
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will 
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will 
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very 
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong 
rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking 
wave amplitude builds to 15-20 feet. As the peak of the swell 
arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 feet.
Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored breakpoints. 
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in 
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very 
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the 
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the 
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new 
round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Thursday through Friday):

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 
PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM 
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge 
that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High 
tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific 
Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In 
addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions 
along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker 
waves and rip currents.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal 
flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific
coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water
level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed 
beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large 
waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent 
infrastructure, particularly during high tide.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST 
     Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday 
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Friday 
     for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 12 06:30:04 PST 2026