FXUS66 KMTR 070717
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1117 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

The warming and drying trend continues! High pressure remains over 
the region through the weekend resulting in maximum temperatures to 
reach 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle to moderate offshore flow 
persists across the higher terrain and gradually diminishes by 
Sunday. This coincides with when a cold front is forecast to 
propagate across the Pacific Northwest with no direct impacts to our 
area. At most, the incoming system will support a prominent onshore 
flow, allowing for increased low cloud cover across the Bay Area and 
portions of the Central Coast. The North Bay, San Francisco, and the 
Peninsula have the greatest chance of experiencing a subtle relief 
from the warm conditions, though it will be short-lived. Interior 
locations elsewhere continue to bask in the sun this weekend.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety 
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal 
Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure builds again with 
max temperatures up to 15 deg F above average through mid-week. 
Upstream, an open wave mid-level trough deepens as it approaches the 
West Coast as early as Thursday. Therefore, anticipate an increased 
chance for precipitation across the Bay Area and Central Coast as 
this system approaches our coastline. Ensemble model members and 
clusters tend to agree on a general troughing pattern late next 
week. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding 
the exact trajectory of this system as well as its moisture content. 
Tune in for more updates on next week's rain chances and impacts!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Currently VFR with stratus offshore. Moderate to high confidence in 
VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and 
drier conditions with offshore flow will limit fog/stratus potential 
overnight. Low to moderate confidence on sub-VFR conditions 
developing at HAF and STS overnight, likely IFR/LIFR between 10Z 
and 16Z.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence 
in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and 
VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds 
prevailing through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, with the
bays remaining more sheltered. Rough ten foot seas will create
hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner and outer
waters. Hazardous conditions will likely continue into next week
as seas build to become very rough Sunday night into Monday
before returning to rough seas by Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast 
beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) 
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for 
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 
feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also 
increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves 
can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people 
into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of 
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain 
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back 
on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM 
Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM 
Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 
ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These 
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the 
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the 
San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell 
will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches 
with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher 
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would 
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance 
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. 
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kummel

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 02:30:03 PST 2026