FXUS66 KMTR 051151
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
347 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

 - Another day of above normal temperatures before slight cooling
   through the weekend.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday evening at Pacific
   Coast beaches.

 - 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday, 
   with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the 
   coastal mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
(Today through Friday)

GOES nighttime microphysics imagery has very weak signatures of 
low clouds and fog in pockets of valley locations this morning. 
KSTS has had moments of reporting visibility down as low as 1/2 
mile, but given the lack of fog on webcams it must be fairly 
shallow and localized. As temperatures continue to cool toward day
break, localized pockets of fog may be possible, however, 
confidence in dense fog is low at this time and will be monitored 
closely.

The region remains under the influence of an upper level high 
that is centered near the northern Nevada/southwestern Idaho 
border along with a localized area of lower pressure almost 300 
miles southeast of San Diego, as analyzed by SPC mesoanalysis. 
Clear skies dominate the area with light south to southeasterly 
winds. Minimum temperatures were nudged slightly warmer than the 
blend this morning for the Salinas and Santa Clara Valleys given 
the low level thermal ridge and the chance for downsloping winds 
warming temperatures slightly.

Once again looking at satellite imagery, a noticeable cloud bank 
out over the ocean is slowly drifting eastward toward the 
California coastline. This is associated with a 850-700 mb trough 
that is expected to continue to move east-southeast toward the 
California coast and phase with the previously mentioned low 
southeast of San Diego. This trough will drive cooler air 
advection which will limit temperatures to the 60s on Friday, with
isolated far inland areas barely touching 70. Lastly, the NAM is 
showing a localized 700 mb vort maxima associated with the 
remnants of the San Diego low that drifts toward the Big Sur 
coastline on Friday as it phases with the incoming trough. With 
the increased moisture being lifted upslope in conjunction with 
this vort max, it cannot be completely ruled out that some light 
rain/sprinkles develop along the Big Sur coast on Friday. However,
PoPs were limited to below 15 percent currently given the lack of
consistency across the model suite to have any confidence in 
timing and occurrence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
(Friday night through Wednesday)

A weak ridge is expected to redevelop on Saturday, but the 
(relatively) cooler upper air will remain. Temperatures are 
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal, but still cooler 
than they have been this past week. Other than some partly cloudy 
skies in the afternoons, dry conditions are expected for most of 
the weekend.

A longwave trough is expected to traverse the northeast Pacific 
over the weekend and move toward the British Columbia coastline by
Sunday night. A weak, shortwave trough is expected to eject away 
from the parent wave and descend down the western coastline 
through Sunday evening. Ensembles continue to highlight the higher
QPF in the Pacific northwest, but just enough moisture should 
move southward to provide light rain in the North Bay in the 
evening, with a 15 to 25 percent chance of moving southward 
overnight.

Beyond Monday morning, another more robust trough is expected to 
drop southward from the northeast Pacific. While ensembles are 
showing fairly good agreement with a system moving in next week, 
there is still a lot of uncertainty in the details. That being 
said, it looks like a pattern change that can lead to slightly 
wetter and cooler/more seasonable temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR continues except for patchy morning fog /LIFR-IFR/. High and 
mid level cloud layers increase later today, tonight and Friday 
helping to lower the probability of radiative cooling to saturation
near ground level i.e. limiting patchy fog development this time 
Friday morning. Surface pressure gradients (and winds) remain 
directed offshore 7.9 mb WMC-SFO and 2.3 mb SAC-SFO this morning, 
however these gradients are forecast to weaken later today, tonight
and Friday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light southeast to east wind becoming
north-northwest late in the day then light and variable tonight
and Friday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeast cool air drainage winds
today becoming light and variable mid to late afternoon. Light
southeast winds redevelop tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light south and east winds today will shift to northwest by
Friday. Seas will remain slight to moderate today then rapidly
build into rough seas tonight to Saturday. Winds will increase on
Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4
AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a 
High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will 
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents 
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet
on Friday.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term 
sites for February 5th.

Location           Feb 5th Record High

Santa Rosa         80 in 2011
San Rafael         79 in 2011
Kentfield          78 in 2011
Napa               79 in 2011
Richmond           81 in 2018
Livermore          78 in 2018
San Francisco      77 in 2018
SFO Airport        73 in 2011
Redwood City       77 in 2018
Half Moon Bay      76 in 2018
Oakland Museum     77 in 2011
San Jose           79 in 2018
Salinas Airport    80 in 2018

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for 
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Saturday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 5 06:30:03 PST 2026