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NWS Technical
Weather Discussion |
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FXUS66 KMTR 210434
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
934 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
- One last day of record-breaking heat today with Moderate
HeatRisk across the region.
- Elevated potential for grass fires today with fire concerns
easing into the weekend.
- Gradual cooling trend begins this weekend and lasts through the
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Temperatures are cooling across the region as the final day of our
heat wave comes to a close. Across our 13 climate sites, 12 broke
their daily high temperature records and 7 broke their all time
March monthly high temperature records. Half Moon Bay was one
degree shy of tying their daily high temperature record.
Temperatures are expected to cool into the 70s to mid 80s on
Saturday and then 70s to low 80s on Sunday. While notably cooler,
this is still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
No rain on the horizon sadly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
The end is in sight... but not quite yet. Today should mark the last
of several days of record-breaking heat across the region. As a note
for the weather geeks out there, this morning's 12Z (5 AM PDT)
sounding at Oakland reported a temperature of 23.4 C at the 850 mb
level (around 5000 feet above sea level). This not only breaks the
record for the hottest 850 mb temperature in March (which was itself
set by the 00Z/5 PM PDT flight yesterday afternoon), it would also
set the record highest 850 mb temperature for the month of April.
With such high temperatures, it should not be a surprise to learn
that as of noon today, downtown San Francisco, Oakland Museum,
Redwood City, San Jose, and Salinas Airport have all broken their
daily records.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected today, corresponding to a
medium risk of heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations,
including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic
diseases, and people who live or work outside without adequate
shelter or cooling. Given the abnormally hot conditions for the
middle of March, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Bay Area
and Central Coast through 8 PM tonight. Follow these tips to protect
yourself, your loved ones, and your animals.
-Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm.
-Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but
if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC
and drink cool water.
-Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke!
Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical
professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat
Stroke.
-Wear a life vest, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions
before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off.
Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can
turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful.
-Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and
are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath.
-Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car.
-Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water.
Later today through Saturday, the ridge that has given us these
record-breaking temperatures begins to break down and crawl
eastwards, allowing for a more zonal (east-west) upper level
pattern, a gradual cooling trend, and a slight expansion of the
marine layer to begin for the weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday
morning hover in the lower to middle 50s for the lower elevations,
and the lower to middle 60s for the higher elevations. Highs on
Saturday will range from the lower to middle 80s for the inland
valleys, the middle to upper 70s close to the Bays, and the 60s
along the Pacific coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
The gradual cooling trend continues into the early part of next
week. Despite the more zonal flow regime across the region, the
upper level heights continue to stay above the seasonal averages,
and a ridge develops across the Desert Southwest towards the middle
of the week, keeping the temperatures near or slightly warmer than
the seasonal averages. High temperatures will settle around the
upper 70s to middle 80s inland and the lower to middle 60s along the
coast, and lows will generally hover in the middle 40s to lower 50s
in the lower elevations, up to the middle 50s for the higher
elevations. The inland valleys of Monterey and San Benito Counties
remain rather warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s possible.
For those people who are still holding out for a heroic late-season
rainstorm, the 7-day forecast shows nary a drop of rain. The CPC
outlook for the 8-14 day period does show a lean towards
precipitation values closer to the seasonal average, but for
downtown San Francisco, that seasonal average only translates to a
little above a half an inch of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals. Moderate confidence on the return of
LIFR-IFR conditions to HAF, MRY, and SNS. Low stratus will stick
close to the coast tomorrow afternoon once VFR is achieved. Onshore
winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence
in VFR through the TAF period with a low probability (20%) for sub-
VFR conditions to return to the terminal tonight. Westerly winds
will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow at
MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on LIFR
conditions returning to the terminals tonight. Low stratus will
stick to the Pacific Coast tomorrow afternoon. Westerly winds will
prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 849 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Strong northerly winds will spread across the waters tonight
through tomorrow night. Frequent gale force gusts are expected
across the outer waters and in the Point Reyes coastal jet region
with isolated gale force gusts expected from Point Reyes to Point
Piedras Blancas. Hazardous seas are expected over the weekend as a
result. Winds diminish and seas abate going into next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 849 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026
The following are the UPDATED record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 20th.
Location Mar 20
Santa Rosa 91 in 2026
San Rafael 92 in 2026
Kentfield 88 in 2026
Napa 90 in 2026
Richmond 87 in 2026
Livermore 91 in 2026
San Francisco 90 in 2026
SFO Airport 89 in 2026
Redwood City 94 in 2026
Half Moon Bay 75 in 2010
Oakland Museum 91 in 2026
San Jose 88 in 2026
Salinas Airport 94 in 2026
The following are the UPDATED record high temperatures at the long term
sites for the entire month of March.
Location
Santa Rosa 92 March 19, 2026
San Rafael 92 March 20, 2026
Kentfield 91 March 28, 1923
Napa 92 March 17, 1914
Richmond 88 March 18, 2026
Livermore 91 March 20, 2026
San Francisco 90 March 20, 2026
SFO Airport 89 March 20, 2026
Redwood City 94 March 20, 2026
Half Moon Bay 83 March 31, 2000 and March 17, 2004
Oakland Museum 91 March 20, 2026
San Jose 89 March 14, 2015
Salinas Airport 94 March 20, 2026
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Mar 20 22:30:02 PDT 2026
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From the National Weather
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Revised:
29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT
(Pacific) |
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