FXUS66 KMTR 151938
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1238 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive 
marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast 
as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should 
retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will 
build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning 
expected tomorrow morning. 

SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing 
Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing 
tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to 
increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen 
slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm 
tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a 
1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM 
output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the 
marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the 
profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures 
slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high 
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the 
inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas. 
HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor 
HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the 
southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions 
of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central 
Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice 
smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent 
breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. 

Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore 
areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine 
with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring 
us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night's high tide 
reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 
7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the 
record for the highest water level observed during the summer season 
(outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was 
previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high 
tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 
AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on 
Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on 
Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing 
to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with 
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the 
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to 
never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will 
begin it's weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures 
are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the 
end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into 
the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the 
low pressure system is currently expected to move through our 
region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will 
result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for 
temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high 
temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low 
80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore 
and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global
ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return 
to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for 
temperatures to warm back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Widespread coastal stratus and inland intrusion of stratus that 
lead to IFR to MVFR conditions has begun to recede back to the 
ocean. Inland intrusion will clear becoming MVFR to VFR by 18Z 
lingering longer for the coastal terminals. Coastal terminals will
become MVFR to VFR around 19Z. Surface winds are generally less 
than 12 kts with some terminals such as KSFO, KOAK, KAPC and KLVK 
12-15 kts. 

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus will mix out 18z today and redevelops 
early Tuesday morning. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 kts.

SFO Bridge Approach...MVFR conditions due to stratus is in the 
approach and is forecast to mix out to VFR by 18z today. Stratus 
redevelops late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Lingering stratus at SJC and OAK will mix 
out to VFR 18z today. VFR for the remainder of the day to tonight 
then stratus will redevelop tonight. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 
kts. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...Lingering stratus at SNS and MYR will mix 
out to MVFR by 18Z becoming VFR this afternoon. Stratus will 
return and move inland this evening. Stratus prevails tonight and 
Tuesday morning. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 
20 knots in the Salinas Valley in the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 837 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southerly breezes persist today transitioning to northerly this
afternoon into the night with a low south- southwesterly swell
across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to
southerly tomorrow afternoon for the southern outer waters. Fresh
to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters
tomorrow and Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for 
south and southwest facing beaches.  Hazardous beach conditions are 
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches 
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz 
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has 
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach 
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach 
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by 
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from 
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, 
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...Malarkey 
MARINE...Malarkey

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 15 14:30:02 PDT 2026