FXUS66 KMTR 090036
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
536 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

 - Hot inland temperatures continue Thursday

 - Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

 - Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell this weekend

 - Light rain possible early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
(This evening through Friday night)

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM this evening for 
much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast as 500 mb high 
pressure remains in place over the region. Temperatures across the
interior will be in the some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal 
averages again this afternoon with cooler conditions near the 
coast given the shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth. 

Overnight temperatures will still remain warm in the higher 
terrain tonight with 60s to low 70s expected and generally in the 
50s in the lower elevations. This is as a mid/upper level trough 
begins to develop off of the British Columbia coastline and allows
for the marine layer to deepen.

Friday will be noticeable cooler as the aforementioned trough 
deepens along the West Coast bringing temperatures closer to 
normal for this time of year. Thus, expecting temperatures to cool
into the low-to- upper 80s in the inland valleys and the warmest 
interior portions of the region to reach into the lower 90s. 
Breezier onshore winds are also expected on Friday afternoon and 
evening along the coast and wind-prone gaps, passes, and valleys. 
This will keep temperatures near the coast in the 60s to lower 
70s.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for bayshore locations
adjacent to the San Pablo Bay with up to 1.2 feet of inundation 
above ground level in low-lying areas during times of peak high 
tides. On Friday morning, the areas adjacent to the San Francisco 
Bay and Monterey Bay are added to the advisory through at least 3 
PM Tuesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Additional cooling is expected by Saturday as a dry frontal 
boundary drops southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast and
the mid/upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. Thus, 
temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages Saturday through
early next week. Onshore winds will be a bit stronger than those 
on Friday with gusts between 30-40 mph along the coast and in the 
wind- prone gaps, passes, and valleys. Locally stronger gusts will
be possible in these areas this weekend.

The NBM and global forecast models continue to indicate a chance 
for rain showers across the southern portion of the Bay Area and 
Central coast Sunday evening through Monday. This is as an upper 
level cut- off low pressure system and remnant moisture from 
Tropical Storm Rachel push into the Central Coast. However, not 
expecting widespread measurable rainfall at this time. Winds ease 
late Sunday and into early next week as the through axis shifts 
inland. Cooler conditions are forecast to persist through midweek 
as troughing persists over the West Coast. Then, as we head into 
the latter part of the upcoming week, a gradual warming trend is 
forecast by the WPC Cluster Analysis as high pressure builds in 
from the eastern Pacific. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR this evening, except at HAF where borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings 
have already developed. MRY and SNS follow in pursuit after sunset 
as stratus continues to funnel into Monterey Bay. The marine layer 
is expected to deepen slightly overnight as the high pressure dome 
destabilizes with the potential for inland expansion. Low confidence 
on fog development at STS and IFR ceilings at APC as it depends on 
how much the marine layer deepens and expands. The current TAF 
suggests the potential for these pessimistic scenarios. Moderate 
confidence on borderline IFR-MVFR ceilings at OAK due to favorable 
winds and a robust stratus deck offshore. Any ceilings that develop 
should mix out by Friday morning. High confidence for the interior 
East and South Bay valleys to remain VFR throughout the TAF cycle. A 
diurnal onshore wind pattern prevails with stronger winds expected 
tomorrow afternoon as a dry cold front approaches the region.

Vicinity of SFO...Strong northwest winds gradually ease and become 
westerly post sunset. Moderate confidence for VFR conditions to 
prevail at SFO this TAF cycle with some scattered clouds overnight. 
Higher confidence for stratus impacts at OAK. Breezy onshore winds 
increase around 10 to 18 kt early Friday afternoon due to the 
approaching dry cold front.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR, though IFR to LIFR ceilings 
are expected to develop shortly after sunset. Onshore winds become 
light overnight as visibility reduces due to either mist or fog. 
Medium confidence on the exact timing of fog development. Conditions 
improve Friday morning with VFR prevailing through the afternoon as 
onshore winds increase to around 10 kt. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 535 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will increase Friday into
the weekend to become strong to near gale northerly winds across
the coastal waters, Monterey Bay, and through the Golden Gate.
Gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and
the coastal jet region of Point Reyes. These winds will build
rough to very rough seas. Long period southerly swell arrives
Friday, with long period northwesterly swell arriving Sunday,
creating a confused sea state.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 428 AM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Hot and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions 
across the interior and higher terrain Thursday. Temperatures 10 to 
20 degrees above normal and poor minimum relative humidity will 
continue away from the compressed marine layer at the coast 
Thursday. The higher terrain will experience active thermal belting, 
little-to-no recovery with nocturnal drying across the highest 
peaks, and thus prolonged burn periods. Winds remain the limiting 
factor, with diurnal winds prevailing except for light 
northerly/offshore flow overnight across the higher terrain. Even 
though conditions become cooler and more humid Friday, windier 
conditions will keep elevated fire weather conditions across the 
interior and higher terrain through Friday.

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for 
     CAZ006-508-529-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506-
     508-510-512>518.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Oct 8 20:30:02 PDT 2026