FXUS66 KMTR 061143
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
343 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 340 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Breezy to strong winds along the coast and at higher 
   elevations through Saturday

 - Warming trend through the weekend with the warmest temperatures
   on Sunday

 - Dry conditions through the extended forecast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 340 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026
(Today and tonight)

Winds remain gusty along the highest peaks of the North and East 
Bay, while winds in the rest of the area have reduced. Expect winds 
across the region to increase again in the mid to late morning, but 
not to the magnitude of previous days. The building ridge pattern 
will continue the drying and warming trend today with highs 
beginning to break back into the 70s across much of the North and 
East Bay, and in spottier locations farther to the south. Winds 
across the district reduce again into the night, with some lingering 
breeziness in the higher elevations of the North Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 340 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)


The overnight forecast update mostly focused on fine adjustments in 
wind for Friday into Saturday, but some tuning was done to the 
temperature trend. One change of note is the increased warming in 
the North Bay for Saturday. This will make Saturday afternoon the 
warmest in the forecast for much of Sonoma County, while most areas 
are set to see temperatures peak on Sunday. Peak temperatures this 
weekend will span from the mid 60s at the immediate coast, then into 
the 70s for the areas slightly inland. Most areas will climb into 
the mid to upper 70s, with a few of the more interior areas set to 
break 80 degrees. The best chances for 80 degree temperatures will 
be Sunday as winds become very weak across much of the region.

The upper-level pattern flexes into more zonal flow into Sunday 
night. At the surface, this will allow for a modest onshore flow and 
the reestablishment of a thin marine layer. Because of this quick 
change, high temperatures will fall around 5 degrees across much of 
the district. The southern Salinas Valley looks to be the more 
notable exception, only cooling by 1 or 2 degrees.

This flow will continue into Tuesday, continuing the cooling trend, 
but temperatures rebound slightly as a weak ridge reforms in the jet 
stream. And by weak, I mean just barely out of zonal flow. What this 
means is that onshore flow will reduce, but not completely 
dissipate, allowing for that slight warming.

The change back to a slight ridge pattern will have more of an 
effect on rain chances than temperatures. In that it will prevent 
any rain makers from making it this far down the Pacific Coast. The 
longer term models show a series of fronts hitting the Pacific 
Northwest over the next week, but as those fronts move south, they 
bend and break as they approach California. This could offer some 
light rain for the very north end of the state, but it doesn't look 
like anything will make it to the Bay Area and Central Coast. 
Patterns like these do become more common going into the dry season, 
so this may be a signal that our rains will become fewer and further 
between as we continue into March. But this isn't set in stone just 
yet, with some hints in the very-long term model output showing the 
flow pushing more southward in the second half of the month, 
disrupting the ridge.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR through the 
TAF period. Strong northerly winds are expected through the morning 
with gusty conditions at times. LLWS was not included in the TAFs; 
however, strong northerly winds around 40 knots can be expected at 
FL020 through the morning hours, particularly in the North Bay and 
East Bay near the terminals of APC and LVK. 

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. High confidence 
in VFR through the TAF period. Moderate northerly/northwesterly 
winds, gusty at times, are expected today. Winds will diminish and 
back to become westerly tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and 
VFR with northerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR through the 
TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue today due to strong northerly
breezes and rough to very rough seas. Frequent gale force gusts
are expected to continue across the northern outer waters through
this evening. Conditions will briefly improve this weekend as
northerly breezes diminish and seas abate, yet hazardous
conditions will linger for the northern outer waters. By Monday,
strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas return.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Mar 6 08:30:04 PST 2026