FXUS66 KMTR 090135
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
635 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part 
   of next week

 - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday

 - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive 
   populations across the interior early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

Low clouds have dissipated across the interior earlier than 
yesterday despite the marine layer sitting around 2,000 feet this 
morning. As such, temperatures across the interior are forecast to 
warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior, in the upper 
60s to mid 70s around the San Fransico Bay Shoreline, and upper 50s 
to lower 60s in areas that the coastal stratus remains in place 
(generally near the coast). 

Tonight, expecting less inland intrusion of stratus as the marine 
layer compresses and high pressure continues to build in from the 
eastern Pacific. There is the potential for mist or light drizzle 
again tonight into Saturday morning, yet widespread measurable 
rainfall is highly unlikely. We are expecting a few degrees of 
warming on Saturday afternoon, especially in the interior where we 
are expecting less cloud cover in the morning. However, most 
locations across the region will remain in Minor HeatRisk.  

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

The warming and drying trend will continue through the remainder of 
the weekend and are forecast to peak on Monday. This is when will 
see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. However, 
the moderate risk has less areal coverage compared to yesterday's 
forecast. This is as we are expecting weaker high pressure aloft and 
greater presences of a marine layer early next week. However, Monday 
afternoon is still forecast to be the warmest day of the week with 
temperatures in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to 
low 90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s 
near coastal locations. 

Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will 
still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling 
trend is forecast to continue through the remainder of next week 
with temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages as a more zonal 
flow returns as the ridge shifts eastward. There remains some 
uncertainty beyond the middle of next week as model solutions 
diverge. Be sure to check back for the latest developments in the 
forecast as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear skies across much of
the region, with stratus clinging to portions of the coastline. 
Majority of the TAF sites are currently VFR, the exceptions being 
KHAF, KSFO, and KMRY. The North Bay valley have a decent shot at 
staying VFR through the TAF cycle, as weak offshore flow occurs. 
Opted to only hint at the possibility for some lower cigs at KAPC 
and kept the pessimistic forecast of stratus coming in at KSTS 
early tomorrow morning. If guidance and observations continue to 
support the offshore flow, it's quite possible North Bay terminals
remain VFR through tomorrow morning. HAF will remain MVFR until 
late morning Saturday. LAMP guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at
15Z Saturday, though they may roll in an hour early. Moderate NW 
winds will ease a bit overnight before picking up again tomorrow 
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...The stratus appears to be clinging on to the area 
around KSFO for dear life, making the forecast quite tricky. The 
question will be, does this stratus let up for a few hours and bring 
a stint of VFR hours. If not, expect MVFR cigs through tomorrow
morning. Opted to keep the trend of the previous forecast and
added gusty westerly winds tomorrow afternoon.


SFO Bridge Approach...

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions expected to return later
tonight with the assistance of moderate westerly winds pushing 
the coastal stratus deck onshore. The highest probability of IFR 
ceilings developing is around 12-15Z Saturday, though they may 
roll in earlier. Winds will remain light through the overnight 
hours before picking up in speed by late morning Saturday. The 
marine layer is expected to stick around MRY through the TAF 
period with SNS expected to scatter out earlier.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 632 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes will continue overnight and 
through the remainder of the weekend along with building rough 
seas. More northerly breezes develop Sunday and become fresh to 
moderate with rough seas beginning to gradually ease late Sunday 
into Monday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 8 20:30:02 PDT 2026