FXUS66 KMTR 070448
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
948 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

 - Seasonably cool temperatures through Tuesday before a warming 
   trend arrives for the second half of the week

 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight 
   before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

 - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of 
   sneaker waves and strong rip currents Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)

The marine layer was slightly deeper overnight which resulted in 
further inland extent into the valleys this morning. However, 
visible satellite imagery is showing gradual clearing back to the 
coast as of early this afternoon. That said, locations along the 
coast may very well not see the sun at all today, or maybe just 
brief breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will remain 
seasonably cool this afternoon.

For tonight and into Tuesday morning, expecting coastal stratus 
to return back into the inland valleys. Once the low clouds 
retreat to the coast by Tuesday afternoon, expect slightly warmer 
temperatures compared to previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)

A gradual warming trend will begin Wednesday, yet temperatures will 
still be a few degrees below seasonal averages. As high pressure 
strengthens over the Desert Southwest and southern California, 
temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages and potentially 
slightly above. That said, only expecting Minor HeatRisk with 
isolated pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior spots on 
Thursday. All in all, a typical summer time pattern with stratus 
keeping conditions cooler near the coast while the interior warms 
up. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The stratus came in a little faster than last night with ceilings
a couple hundred feet lower. The TAFs have been adjusted to
account for this trend, as well as delaying the clearing time for
many terminals given the deeper cloud layer than expected. This is
also a good set up for some coastal drizzle, and patchy fog is
also possible from 12-16Z or so.

Vicinity of SFO...The clouds actually made it over the mountains
rather than swirling around the Bay. This indicates a higher cloud
top and overall deeper cloud layer than last night. With stronger
onshore wind developing over the next 24 hours, there is actually
a chance that the ceilings don't clear at all this TAF period. I
still show 6 hours of VFR conditions surrounding 00Z, but the
window is closing with the latest trends. Winds will remain out of
the standard WNW direction, but will gust to near 30 knots in the
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...The approach was the last part of the Bay to
fill in, but will soon be firmly ensconced in the stratus.

Monterey Bay Terminals...With the deeper marine layer, it's very
unlikely MRY will clear for more than a few hours tomorrow
afternoon. SNS should still get a break, however. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NW winds will increase to a strong breeze Tuesday and persist into
the weekend. Wind waves will build to rough by Wednesday, while a
long period low SW swell moves through this week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast 
beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period
southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker 
waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 
feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing 
beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San 
Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can 
sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into 
the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and 
surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. 
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM PDT Tuesday through Friday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jul 7 00:30:03 PDT 2026