FXUS66 KMTR 162311
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
411 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased 
   risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas 
early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA. 
The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in 
that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow 
an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is 
expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland 
around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight. 

High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights 
(590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With 
similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a 
few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures. 
Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and 
90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These 
temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized 
areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart 
heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by 
limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if 
outdoors), and staying hydrated. 

Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading 
to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for 
inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be 
around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar 
temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of 
the marine layer (which will be similar to today's). 

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas 
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with 
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us 
the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to 
be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 
1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In 
addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases 
the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach 
Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES 
section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn 
your back to the ocean!

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down 
with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This 
trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower 
and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher 
terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry 
with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early 
Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the 
marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate 
further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high 
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is 
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak 
troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting 
to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming 
trend, especially for the inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus has retreated to the coastal regions, and breezy 
onshore flow with a southerly component will continue into the 
evening hours. Stratus will expand again through the evening hours 
and cover most of the terminals tonight, with moderate to high 
confidence that LVK will remain VFR through the night. Stratus 
retreats back to the immediate coast Wednesday morning, with the 
breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon, again with a 
southerly component as a mesoscale low develops off the North Bay 
coastline.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions continue through the evening with 
moderate to fresh northwest winds. MVFR-IFR stratus will come in 
through the evening and early overnight period with moderate 
confidence on the timing of stratus impacts, with the potential for 
stratus to come over the terminal a couple of hours earlier than the 
current forecast. Will monitor conditions throughout the night. 
Stratus will clear out through Wednesday morning with breezy west 
winds resuming in the afternoon. A low confidence of stratus impacts 
on Wednesday evening, but most model output puts the stratus impacts 
past the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Stratus may impact the approach path a 
little later than at the terminal tonight. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR conditions continue for the next few 
hours with moderate northwest winds. MVFR-IFR stratus will build 
towards OAK early tonight and migrate towards SJC later on, with 
light winds overnight into Wednesday morning. Stratus should 
dissipate on Wednesday morning. At OAK, breezy northwest winds will 
resume Wednesday afternoon with a potential for stratus to build 
into the terminal by the evening hours. Confidence in the wind 
direction and speed is lower at SJC for Wednesday afternoon as the 
terminal sits between a northwest flow from SF Bay and downsloping 
winds from the Santa Cruz Mountains. May need to carefully monitor 
observations and future TAF updates through the day.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions through the next couple of 
hours with MVFR-IFR stratus building into the terminals rather early 
in the evening. Breezy northwest winds at SNS and southwest winds at 
MRY will continue into the evening hours. Stratus should pare itself 
back to the immediate coast through Wednesday morning as the breezy 
west to northwest winds resume in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer
waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow
morning. However, a better onshore push will bring moderate to
fresh winds for San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the
afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point
Sur north to Point Pinos. Otherwise, generally light to gentle
winds to the weekend. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the
weekend with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the
coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions 
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped 
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast 
beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check 
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up 
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching 
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into 
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest 
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay 
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside 
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your 
back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DS

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 16 20:30:02 PDT 2026