FXUS66 KMTR 250107
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
437 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast today

 - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a
   deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday 

 - Gusty onshore winds begin Thursday, peaking Friday and Saturday
   with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine
   concerns through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)

As was the case yesterday, clouds have been slow to erode from 
inland areas this morning with satellite showing many coastal areas 
still socked in. Weak upper level ridging did compress the marine 
layer a bit, preventing it from stretching as far inland as it did 
Tuesday. Patchy fog was reported across multiple coastal sites this 
morning but visibility is quickly improving as an eddy just off the 
coast is helping to lift cloud bases. For areas that remain under 
cloud cover, temperatures today won't see much change from Tuesday's 
highs, generally remaining in the 70s and low 80s. For interior 
areas, the weak ridging will be enough to push temperatures into the 
upper 80s to low 90s today. Temps peak today with Minor HeatRisk 
for those warmer spots before a slow cooling trend begins 
Thursday. 

The marine layer will remain relatively compressed tonight with 
additional patchy fog and visibility impacts for coastal terrain 
into Thursday morning. Upper level troughing will begin to push in 
by Thursday morning, with heights slowly falling through the day. 
This is likely to limit interior warming for Thursday afternoon, 
with highs expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. 
Around the same time, a large upper level low will sweep down the 
Canadian coastline, tightening the gradient over California. Gusty 
onshore winds will begin as early as Thursday, with the strongest 
winds expected for Friday and the weekend. Marine impacts/details 
from the uptick in winds can be found in the marine discussion below 
and in the Small Craft Advisory.

The long-period southerly swell will continue to impact the Pacific 
Coast beaches through this afternoon with a lull for the end of the 
week. High rip current risk with sneaker waves...never turn your 
back to the ocean! Additional beach hazards will be possible this 
weekended, please see additional details in the discussion below. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)

A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue 
to fall with the approaching low to the north. A frontal passage 
Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and 
wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low 
and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a 
deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the 
very far interior spots. Drizzle and light rain will not be out of 
the question for both Friday and Saturday mornings given a 
sufficiently deep marine layer, and clouds may struggle to clear out 
Friday afternoon. Fire weather concerns will also be limited despite 
the strong winds given how high the humidity will be, along with 
excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. 

Saturday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with ample 
moisture and a deep marine layer limiting daytime heating. Interior 
spots may be limited to the low 70s with 60s for most other 
locations and 50s right along the coast, around 10-15 degrees below 
normal. Cooler weather and gusty onshore winds prevail into Sunday, 
but the aforementioned low pivots northeastward and winds begin to 
weaken by Sunday evening. With the lows true departure on Monday,
upper level ridging attempts to move back in but may face some 
push back. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a
troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support 
a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Onshore breezes will usher stratus /MVFR-IFR/ inland tonight and 
Thursday morning. Stratus mixes out to the coastline with 
conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and 
afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Thursday night and Friday 
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR then stratus /MVFR/ moves in 05z this 
evening and prevails Thursday morning with mix out to VFR 17z 
Thursday. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ returns Thursday evening. West wind
15 to 20 knots to mid evening then decreasing to near 10 knots
tonight and Thursday morning. West wind near 20 knots Thursday
afternoon to mid evening. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, 
then stratus /MVFR/ develops overnight then mixes out to VFR 17z 
Thursday. Northwest wind near 10 knots decreasing to light and 
variable wind Thursday morning then northwest 12 knots Thursday 
afternoon. For OAK Airport VFR until mid evening then stratus /IFR/ 
prevails tonight and Thursday morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. 
Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ returns Thursday evening. West wind 5 to 15 knots.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ moves inland early to
mid evening then prevails tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions
improving to MVFR-VFR late Thursday morning and afternoon. Onshore
winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will resume across the
waters tonight through the latter part of the week. Occasional
gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of
Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop
this afternoon and continue through at least early Friday. Long
period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 16 to 18 seconds emanating
from energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to 
affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest 
facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, 
specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the 
Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A 
Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues 
through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions 
before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much 
farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by 
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away 
from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the 
beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

The southerly swell is expected to subside tonight into the 
latter half of the work week before increasing again by the 
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zuber
LONG TERM....Zuber
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 24 20:30:03 PDT 2026