FXUS66 KMTR 252020
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
120 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

 - Gusty onshore winds today, increasing for Friday and Saturday
   with east-west mountain passes as high as 50+ mph and marine
   impacts through the weekend

 - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a
   deeper marine layer with AM drizzle for Friday and Saturday 

 - Slow warming trend starting Sunday with near to slightly below 
   normal temperatures by early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026
(This evening through Friday night)

The marine layer mixed out a bit quicker today compared to 
yesterday, but satellite shows it stubbornly persisting across 
much of the north bay. Today is a transition period from the high 
pressure that brought above-normal temperatures earlier this week 
to a significant cool down that begins Friday with an approaching 
upper level low. Ahead of the system, a tighter gradient will 
increase winds across the region this afternoon with intermittent 
gusts up to 20-30 mph for many locations, higher in wind-prone 
passes. Temperatures will be similar to Wednesdays highs with 
coastal areas not warming much under a deeper marine layer and 
interior areas benefiting from slightly cooler 850mb temperatures 
as troughing returns. Heights continue to fall Friday with the 
marine layer deepening closer to 2000-2500 ft, significant enough 
for patchy drizzle Friday morning. Around the same time, winds 
will increase more substantially as the front moves through, and 
east- west passes could see gusts up to 50+ mph with many other 
locations gusting up to 25-35 mph. A much more significant 
cooldown is expected for Friday with temperatures falling 4-10 
degrees compared to Thursday for most locations outside of the 
immediate coast. Low clouds will likely struggle to clear out 
Friday afternoon with decent moisture in the lower levels and high
clouds will move in from north to south. 

The winds will increase not just for inland spots, but also for the 
coastal waters. More information can be found in the marine 
section below as well as the Small Craft Advisory that will be in 
effect for most zones through Friday evening. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Gusty onshore winds peak both Friday and Saturday as the low pushes 
down into Oregon, tightening the gradient further. Additional 
cooling is expected for Saturday with an even deeper marine layer
ushering in widespread coastal drizzle and pockets of light rain.
Saturday should be the coolest day of the forecast with clouds 
struggling to mix out in the afternoon and a slower trend to the 
movement of the low. While it meanders along the borders of 
CA/NV/OR, highs on Saturday should only reach the 50s and 60s for 
most spots, with low to mid 70s for interior areas, generally 
10-15 degrees below normal.

Things shift a bit Sunday as the aforementioned low starts to move 
up into Idaho and Montana and heights slowly increase. With this, 
the marine layer will begin to compress a bit each day into early 
next week, and temperatures will slowly warm back towards normal. 
General model trends are pushing temperatures higher for next week, 
but ensemble guidance continues to favor weak troughing prevailing 
which would keep us a bit cooler. Should the latter prevail, the 
coastal waters may continue to be impacted by gusty northwest winds 
through much of the week, with marine hazards potentially 
prevailing. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Stratus is making its way out of most terminals this morning. 
Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, with the 
exception of HAF where it'll remain borderline IFR-MVFR through the 
TAF period. Moderate onshore winds increase through the afternoon 
with gusts between 20-25 kts at most terminals. Winds remain 
elevated overnight diminishing as low as 8-10 kts with the arrival 
of the marine layer. Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated as 
the stratus deck moves onshore and remains until 16-19Z. High 
confidence on wind speeds and gusts. Medium confidence on exact 
arrival of the stratus, especially at STS where they may be 
intermittently MVFR-VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR until about 07Z Friday when MVFR ceilings 
begin to fill into the terminal. High confidence that moderate 
westerly winds will increase by the afternoon with 25-30 kt gusts to 
begin around 01Z Friday. Gusty conditions persist overnight and 
diminish by 12Z Friday. MVFR ceilings may clear later tomorrow 
morning and conditions will become VFR by 21Z Friday. Medium 
confidence on exact timing of the stratus deck as they may roll in a 
couple hours later.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same general wind pattern as SFO, though 
moderate winds remain more NW-W with gusts up to 25kt. MVFR ceilings 
(BKN015-020) may roll in a few hours later and scatter out earlier 
than SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC...Moderate winds (10-15 kt) increase by the 
afternoon remaining from the west at OAK and NW at SJC. High 
confidence that both sites will experience gusts around 20 kt during 
the afternoon. MVFR ceilings roll in around 07Z Friday at OAK and 
09Z Friday at SJC, though currently have medium confidence on the 
timing of stratus.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions prevail through the 
afternoon with a higher chance for SNS to experience 20 kt gusts. 
MVFR ceilings will impact MRY first around 23Z Thursday and then 
approach SNS around 01Z Friday. Ceilings will remain on the 
borderline of low end MVFR to high end IFR and may jump between the 
two throughout the night. Both will see a clearing around 17Z Friday. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will continue to develop
tonight and persist through the weekend. These strong winds and
rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft 
across most of the coastal waters at times through at least the 
first half of next week. There is moderate confidence in at least 
occasional gales developing across mainly the exposed coastal 
waters over the weekend. Long period southwest swell will persist 
through the extended forecast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay 
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zuber
LONG TERM....Zuber 
AVIATION...Navarrete 
MARINE...Manning

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jun 25 14:30:03 PDT 2026