FXUS66 KMTR 241124
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
324 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026

 - Extensive rainfall across the Bay Area today

 - Nuisance flooding possible in the North Bay

 - Warmer and drier conditions begin Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
(Today and tonight)

Showers are spreading across the Bay Area and the Central Coast 
tonight as a plume of moisture reaches California. So far the focus 
of the rainfall has been the North Bay, but the rest of the region 
has also seen scattered rain showers building as the dry lower layer 
as seen on last evening's 00Z OAK sounding erodes away. Rain totals 
through Wednesday morning will range from 1 to 2 inches in the North 
Bay valleys and up to 4 inches in the North Bay mountains, and will 
progressively decrease towards the south, with rain totals of 0.5 to 
1 inch expected to the west of the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills and 
the San Mateo-Santa Cruz Mountains, including the city of San 
Francisco, around 0.2-0.5 inches in the rain shadowed valleys of the 
South Bay and interior East Bay, and a few hundredths to a tenth of 
an inch in the Monterey-Salinas region. The interior Central Coast, 
and the southern half of the Big Sur coastline, will receive a few 
sprinkles in the wettest locations. Flooding concerns are minimal 
and are generally limited to nuisance flooding across the North Bay.

Through the rest of the day, high resolution modeling suggests that 
the North Bay will continue to get the most consistent rainfall with 
scattered to widespread showers across the Bay Area and isolated 
showers in the Monterey Bay region. As the axis of rainfall pushes 
to the south, it begins to lose its connection to the moisture 
plume, resulting in decreasing shower coverage across the Bay Area 
and terrain-favored regions within the Central Coast tonight into 
Wednesday morning.

High temperatures throughout the region will range from the middle 
to upper 50s across the North Bay, to the lower to middle 60s across 
San Francisco, Oakland, and the western San Mateo coast, the middle 
to upper 60s in the interior East Bay, South Bay, and Monterey Bay 
regions, and the lower to middle 70s in the valleys of the interior 
Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

Behind the moisture plume, ridging should return to the region and 
result in a warming and drying trend for the latter part of the 
week, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to the 
middle 70s through Saturday. In the wake of the rainfall, some 
morning fog is possible across the valleys on Wednesday morning. 
Otherwise conditions remain generally benign during this period with 
light to gentle northwest winds developing each afternoon and 
evening.

Attention then turns towards a cut-off low that will approach the 
West Coast Sunday into the early part of next week. The latest 
review of the ensemble model cluster analysis suggests slightly 
greater confidence that the low will impact California, and while 
there are still subtle differences over how the low will evolve, all 
clusters generally agree that significant rainfall is not expected, 
although some instability-driven showers remain possible. CPC 
outlooks suggest that temperatures above seasonal averages are 
likely through the first week of March, and precipitation totals 
lean towards values below seasonal averages for the same period. For 
context, from March 3 to March 9, high temperatures in downtown San 
Francisco hover around 61 degrees, and said station's average total 
rainfall for this period is slightly above three-quarters of an
inch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026

MVFR ceilings have developed in the North Bay valleys and the 
immediate coast of the San Mateo Peninsula, but the bulk of the 
region remains at VFR with mid- to high level clouds. Southerly 
winds will build this afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 
to 25 knots at favored terminals. Scattered to widespread showers 
continue across the North Bay into the SF Bay Area through the day, 
with MVFR-IFR ceilings possible with the strongest showers and most 
consistent rainfall. Shower coverage begins to decrease as the axis 
of rainfall moves southward this evening. Moderate confidence on the 
occurrence of showers across the Monterey Bay region in the late 
afternoon and evening hours. Behind the rainfall, mist and potential 
fog develop in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-low end VFR through the day with scattered 
showers developing into stratiform rain. Southerly winds will 
develop this afternoon gusting up to 20 kt. This evening, showers 
will begin to push south of the terminal, with the potential for 
stratus, mist, and potentially fog to develop overnight into 
Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with mid-to high level clouds through 
the day. A moderate southerly breeze develops in the afternoon with 
winds at MRY taking a more westerly component while those at SNS 
funnel through the Salinas Valley. There is low to moderate 
confidence on how the rain holds up as it moves south from the SF 
Bay Area. If the rain holds together, expect some showers during the 
evening and overnight hours, dissipating through Wednesday morning 
near or after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026

Light to moderate rain will pass through the coastal waters into
the overnight hours. Winds stay breezy then ease by Wednesday.
Dry weather prevails late for the second half of the week with
light seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Feb 24 06:30:03 PST 2026