FXUS66 KMTR 071851
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1151 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - Cooler temperatures persist through Tuesday

 - Slight chance for coastal drizzle/light rain late Monday into
   early Tuesday

 - Warmer and drier conditions return mid to late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Clear, sunny skies will continue through the remainder of the day 
with temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s across the 
interior. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected with gusts 
largely between 20-30 mph along the coast, higher terrain, and 
mountain gaps/passes. Rain chances have decreased quite a bit across 
the North Bay with drizzle really only expected across coastal 
northern Sonoma County now. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
(Today and tonight)

Generally clear conditions prevail across the region with some 
stratus development visible on the western San Mateo Peninsula, the 
northern edge of the Santa Lucias near Monterey Bay, the Gabilan 
Range east of Salinas, and the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills. Stratus 
development through the night will be confined to the Monterey Bay 
and potentially the Morgan Hill-Hollister area, as strong mixing in 
the boundary layer disrupts radiational stratus formation.

Troughing dominates the weather pattern across the West Coast with 
an upper level low pressure system moving through the Pacific 
Northwest, leading to temperatures cooler than the seasonal 
averages. Today's high temperatures will hover in the middle 70s to 
lower 80s in the inland valleys, up to the middle to upper 80s in 
the warmest spots of eastern Contra Costa County and southern 
Monterey County, the middle 60s to the middle 70s near San Francisco 
Bay and the Santa Cruz coastal plain, and the upper 50s to middle 
60s along the Pacific Coast and the southern side of Monterey Bay. 
Breezy winds are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening 
hours, but by that time the upper low should be moving into the 
northern Rockies and the Canadian Prairies, slackening the pressure 
gradient. This should result in the wind gusts not being as strong 
as they were yesterday. Wind gusts should top out around 20-30 mph 
along the coast and the Salinas Valley, with locally stronger gusts 
through gaps and passes and near favored coastal areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1235 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

A second low pressure system will reinforce the troughing pattern on 
Monday, leading to a slight dip in the temperatures as highs in the 
inland valleys dip into the 70s. As the second low moves through the 
Pacific Northwest, it will drag along a stream of moisture late 
Monday into early Tuesday. Model output shows precipitable water 
values of around 1" to 1.3", over twice the seasonal average this 
time of year. Any rain will be very light with the highest 
accumulations lying across the North Bay coastal ranges. Even there, 
the trend for progressively drier totals continues as the current 
forecast limits accumulations to less than a tenth of an inch, and 
even a higher end ensemble forecast limits the totals to less than a 
quarter of an inch in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, and less than a 
tenth of an inch elsewhere within the Bay Area. However, as we 
sprint headfirst into the climatological dry season, any rainfall is 
beneficial.

By the later part of Tuesday into Wednesday, that second low 
pressure system will move into the Northern Rockies, and ensemble 
model output is converging on a ridge beginning to come into the 
West Coast, allowing inland highs to rebound to the 90s and the 
coasts to rise to the 60s and 70s for the middle and later parts of 
the week. These temperatures are raising the prospect of a moderate 
risk for heat-related illnesses, especially for sensitive 
populations including children, the elderly, pregnant women, and 
people who work or live outdoors. Gusty northerly winds are 
possible on Wednesday and Thursday across the interior regions, 
especially the North Bay interior mountains, as the trough digs into 
the Rockies. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to differ on 
how deep that upper level trough will go, and any fire weather 
impacts from rainfall look to be minimal, if indeed there is any 
rainfall at all. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR everywhere through the TAF period with some passing high clouds. 
Widespread moderate onshore breezes with gusts in excess of 15kts 
will prevail beginning this afternoon into the evening. Winds are 
expected to diminish overnight, but most sites will remain gusty 
with gentle to moderate breezes (~10-15kts).

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions with gusts in excess of 25kts and 
moderate winds (~15-20kts). OAK won't experience gusts until Monday 
morning and the wind will be slightly lower than SFOs. High 
confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar pattern to SFO, except winds will be 
slightly lower (around 15kts at 20Z) and gusts in excess of 25kts 
are more probable. Gusty conditions will begin an hour later than 
SFO and will ease around 05/06Z before picking up again late Monday 
morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore winds are expected to increase by 
the early afternoon. MRY will experience frequent gusts up to 20 
kts. SNS gusts may be more infrequent through the afternoon, 
therefore it was not included in the TAF. Overnight, a marine layer 
between 1000-1500 feet may result in a brief scattered cloud deck, 
though confidence is currently to low to assess if it'll become 
MVFR. For now, VFR through the TAF period. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 935 AM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Moderate northwesterly winds and seas will continue through today
then gradually ease tonight into Monday before building once
again midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...CW

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 7 12:30:02 PDT 2026