FXUS66 KMTR 252152
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
252 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific 
   Coast locations through much of the week

 - Cool conditions through the week

 - Rain chances late week into the upcoming weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

High cloud cover is streaming in from the west/northwest in 
advance of an approaching frontal system (largely expected to 
remain north of the region). As such, temperatures this afternoon 
will peak in the mid to upper-60s near the coast and low to 
mid-70s for inland areas away from the immediate coast and the 
interior. 

Tonight and into Monday morning, expecting the aforementioned 
frontal boundary to push inland over northern California brining a
slight chance for very light rain to the northern offshore waters
and the Sonoma County coastline. Temperatures are forecast to 
cool into the lower 40s across the North Bay Valleys and far 
southern portions of the Salinas Valley Monday morning with the 
rest of the region expecting upper 40s to low 50s.

Temperatures cool some 5-10 degrees on Monday as a cooler air 
mass spreads southward across the region in response to the 
mid/upper level low pushing into the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

Below normal temperatures are forecast to persist through midweek
as the region with zonal flow to troughing persisting over the 
West Coast. However, dry conditions are forecast to prevail 
through midweek. It isn't until Friday and the upcoming weekend 
that we see rain chances return to the region as a cold front 
moves through Friday and into Saturday. There is low to moderate 
confidence of this occurring. However, there is still time for 
things to change so don't cancel your tick-or-treating plans yet! 

Again, the most pressing threat this week will be minor to 
moderate coastal flooding along bayshore locations of the San 
Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays. The Pacific Coast gets 
added to the Coastal Flood advisory beginning Monday as we are 
expecting up to 1.9 feet of inundation above ground level. This is
due to thermal expansion of the warm waters generated by El Nino 
and astronomical high tides through much of the upcoming work 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Another VFR day is on tap for the region, with satellite showing 
only high clouds streaming over us. Tonight, the upper level trough 
will continue to track across the PacNW while troughing extends 
south. This will allow for onshore flow to take hold of much of the 
region and perhaps interact with the marine layer. Right now the 
most likely sites to see any marine layer action or stratus seem to 
be around the San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula  and around the 
Monterey Bay. Though confidence is moderate, so opted to keep the 
hint of lower clouds in the forecast rather than socking areas in. 
Should we see low clouds develop, the timing is currently between 6Z-
15Z with clouds lifting or mixing out by the late morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...Quiet conditions continue as high clouds stream 
overhead. Winds are expected to become onshore later this 
afternoon, peaking between 10-15 kt, before decreasing to less than 
10 kt during the overnight hours. As mentioned above there is signal 
for some lower clouds to move into the SFO region, right now models 
generally keep it west of the terminal and closer to the coast. Kept 
the hint of MVFR cigs in the TAF as a result, with clouds lifting to 
VFR cigs by late morning. Tomorrow afternoon, a strong push of 
onshore winds is forecast. This will be close to the end of the TAF 
cycle where we could see 15 kt sustained winds gusts up to 20-25 kt 
through the early evening. Moderate to high confidence in the 
forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and onshore winds are 
forecast for this afternoon. Tonight, the signal for some weak 
offshore or southerly flow before becoming more light and variable
tomorrow morning. Models also show the potential for some MVFR 
cigs around the region but not fully socking us in. Opted to keep 
the SCT mention of MVFR cigs and wait to see how the models trend.
It could be have a few hours of BKN to OVC MVFR cigs overnight, 
with skies mixing out by mid to late morning. Moderate confidence 
in the forecast. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Gentle north to northwest breezes will become moderate to fresh
early this week. Strong gusts increase across the southern coastal
waters near Point Sur and Monterey Bay by Monday afternoon, with
some isolated near gale force gusts. Moderate seas of 4 to 5 ft
continue for offshore waters, but will build to 6 to 8 ft seas
Monday into Tuesday. Slight seas of 2 to 4 ft hold the immediate
coastline and build to moderate 4 to 6 ft for Monday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for 
     CAZ505-509.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Oct 25 16:30:03 PDT 2026