FXUS66 KMTR 040545
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
945 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 818 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Cold Weather Advisory for southern Monterey and San Benito
   counties midnight to 8 am Thursday

 - Offshore winds relaxing through the day across the higher
   elevations

 - Benign conditions and no precipitation expected through the
   next seven days

 - Slight warming trend begins Friday through the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Downsloping northerly winds resulted in a quickly clearing sky 
and warmer temperatures over the North Bay where it reached the 
60s to lower 70s today. Highs across the rest of the Bay Area were
generally in the 60s except in the mid 40s to 50s over the highest
terrain. Highs were in the 50s to mid 60s over the north Central 
Coast. 

A Cold Weather Advisory was issued for southern interior Monterey
and San Benito counties for midnight to 8 am Thursday. The air mass
is dry which can radiate out at night fairly easily like in the 
desert with exception of cirrus clouds possibly slowing some of 
the outgoing radiative cooling. 

Dry weather continues with high pressure continuing through late
week and the weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Satellite imagery shows extensive high clouds across the Central 
Coast, medium-level clouds across the Bay Area south of the Golden 
Gate, and a thinner layer of high clouds across the North Bay. 
Across the higher elevations, strong northeasterly winds continue to 
gust up to 45 to 50 mph across favored locations, more generally 
around 25 to 35 mph. These are being driven by the interaction 
between a positively tilted trough extending from the Upper Midwest 
into the Desert Southwest and an upper level ridge off the coast of 
the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. The combination results 
in northerly flow over the region and a offshore pressure gradient, 
although with the trough starting to move eastwards, the gradient is 
gradually relaxing. The SFO-WMC gradient, which peaked at -8.9 mb as 
of 7 AM this morning, has slackened to -6.3 as of Noon. Model 
guidance shows the gradient continuing to gradually relax over the 
next 24 hours. Another push of offshore flow is expected tonight, 
but the gusts will not be as strong and the winds should return to a 
more northwesterly onshore flow tomorrow.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will hover in the upper 50s to 
the middle 60s for the lower elevations, down to the lower to middle 
50s in the higher elevations. Lows will reach the upper 30s to the 
lower 40s in the inland valleys, and into the middle to upper 40s 
along the coast. Chilly lows in the lower to middle 30s are expected 
in the southern reaches of Monterey County, but the coverage is not 
widespread enough, especially across the southern Salinas Valley, to 
issue a Cold Weather Advisory. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The forecast conditions remain remarkably stable with the conditions 
remaining generally dry and benign through the 7 day outlook. 
Although a couple of storm systems will impact the West Coast, the 
upper level flow will divert them to the north. As a result, while 
the Pacific Northwest and the North Coast see a couple shots of 
rain, the current forecast depicts the rain chances for our part of 
the state remaining offshore, sometimes tantalizing close to the 
shoreline. The eastern Pacific ridge will build into the 
southwestern US during this time, allowing a gradual warming trend 
to begin on Friday and last through the weekend. By the early part 
of next week, temperatures in the inland valleys could rise into the 
upper 60s to lower 70s, with the coast remaining in the lower to 
middle 60s.

The next chance for substantial rainfall across the region lie 
closer to the middle of the month, and at this point in the 
forecast, the uncertainty can be best described as "Here be 
dragons". Considering that the moisture to power such a system 
currently lies in the western Pacific and the parent low pressure 
system has yet to form over Asia, this is not surprising. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Light offshore flow will help to keep 
drier air over the region and mitigate fog potential. If fog is able 
to redevelop in the northern Central Valley there may be some 
potential for fog to extend up the delta and reach APC. Winds 
generally stay light and offshore through the TAF period but may 
become lightly onshore during the afternoon/evening as a weak sea 
breeze tries to develop.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light, generally offshore winds persist 
through tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is that a weak sea 
breeze will develop late tomorrow afternoon/evening with winds 
peaking around 8-10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light winds continue at MRY and SNS 
through the TAF period. Moderate SE drainage winds are possible 
early Thursday morning at Salinas before winds become NNW during the 
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 818 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Moderate NW winds will persist through the afternoon and decrease
to a gentle breeze by Thursday. Rough seas in the outer waters
will gradually diminish overnight as the winds ease and westerly
swell abates. After a brief favorable weather window on Thursday,
northerly winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze on
Friday, rebuilding moderate seas up to 8 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline 
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday 
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners 
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight 
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined 
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase 
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run 
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over 
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and 
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Thursday for CAZ516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 PM PST Friday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Dec 3 22:30:02 PST 2025