FXUS66 KMTR 111805
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

 - Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday

 - Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next
   week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions return later this week with
   dangerous conditions this weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM for the North 
Bay Interior Valleys, San Francisco, and the San Francisco Bay 
Shoreline as we continue to see visibilities of less than 1/4 
mile. While conditions have improved over Napa County, we continue
to see dense fog in places such as Petaluma, KSFO, KOAK, KSQL, 
and KNUQ. The fog is forecast to mix out as surface temperatures 
warm into the 70s to lower 80s (especially across the interior 
Central Coast) this afternoon. 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(Tonight through Thursday)

Areas of low clouds and fog redevelop tonight then it'll turn 
mainly sunny Wednesday. Clouds will then increase over our 
forecast area Wednesday night and continue mainly cloudy Thursday.
It'll be dry Thursday except model forecasts do show a little 
light measurable drizzle or light rain developing closest to the 
coastline by later Thursday, with better chances for wet weather 
Thursday night.

Before discussing the long term weather, there is a trough of low
pressure from the Pacific Northwest to our west that'll split and
have little impact on our weather. The southern split energy will
merge with the subtropical jet stream and remain well to our south.
It's important to mention the passage of this low since it will free
the mid-latitude westerlies and polar jet stream to send a series
of well structured cold fronts (2 to 3) to move our way late in 
the week and through early next week. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Farther upstream there is good agreement in the global models 
that strong polar jet stream winds and a low center will undergo 
rapid, deep cyclogenesis south of the Aleutian Islands tonight 
through Wednesday. During this time the surface cold front is 
forecast to move upwards to 50 mph to 70 mph, very fast for a cold
front. Dangerously high swell will develop with this low and 
become a factor here with dangerous and potentially damaging high 
surf in our forecast area by late Friday and Saturday. Beach 
Hazards will precede the arrival of the high surf.

On the heels of this low pressure system, another low is forecast
to undergo rapid, deep development Thursday into Friday. Both of 
these system's cold fronts will approach and move across our 
forecast area (though less quickly vs initial rapid development). 
The first cold front reaches our area with rain and wind Friday, 
the next cold front arrives with rain and wind Sunday into Monday.
The first specific low center will reach the Pacific Northwest, 
the second low will reach the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia 
late in the week and weekend respectively. Given how much strength
is showing up in the upstream pattern, it is good that the low 
centers are forecast to pass by far to our north vs much closer to
the Bay Area and north Central Coast. Bottom line, a very busy week
is ahead with a quickly moving pattern and beneficial rain. Expect
the rain and wind to affect Friday's commute. Since the upstream
pattern is evolving very quickly, something to keep in mind is e.g.
the first cold front may arrive sooner than the models calculate.
Will soon be looking into and messaging about winds as well as high,
damaging surf ahead for late week and weekend. Please stay tuned to
the latest updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions and diurnal winds should prevail today. Moderate 
confidence IFR (potentially becoming LIFR) conditions return to 
Half Moon Bay, Santa Rosa, and Oakland. Low to Moderate confidence
of MVFR returning across the bay area, with low confidence (under
30%) in IFR or worse. Cloud cover is likely to increase after 
09-12Z with the potential for reductions in visibility if fog is 
able to develop. Fog chances are highest across the North Bay 
Valleys but may impact airports along the SF Bay shoreline. 
Conditions are expected to worsen through Thursday ahead of a low 
pressure system arriving on Friday. 

Vicinity of SFO...Fog persists along the west San Francisco Bay 
shoreline, but should clear from radiation before 20z. VFR and 
diurnal winds to prevail afterward. MVFR conditions come in tonight; 
IFR is possible tonight, but light offshore flow may be enough to 
keep it away.

SFO Bridge Approach...Some fog/low lying clouds are hanging on 
between San Jose and SFO. These should clear out from radiation 
before 20z. Afterwards, VFR and diurnal winds for the rest of the
day with the potential for MVFR conditions overnight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR conditions return overnight as low 
cloud cover returns ahead of an incoming low pressure system. 
Current thinking is that CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border for 
MRY/SNS with clearing to occur late tomorrow morning. Otherwise, 
winds remain light and onshore during the day before becoming light, 
offshore overnight. Drainage winds are likely to develop at SNS 
again tomorrow morning with SE winds peaking around 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Conditions will steadily deteriorate Thursday into Friday as a 
cold front approaches the coast bringing strong SW winds and 
moderate rain. Gale force winds are likely during the day on 
Friday with a low potential for short lived storm force gusts as 
the front moves through. By Saturday, high seas will move in from 
a hurricane force low moving through the NE Pacific. Significant 
wave heights will reach between 25 to 30 feet on Saturday. Small 
crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these 
conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 332 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through
6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf 
Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low 
pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next 
week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will
impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the
forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves
Thursday and Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to
15-20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking
waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal
erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not 
go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over 
seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude 
will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high 
swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM 
Wednesday 11/11, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM 
Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM 
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge 
that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High 
tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific 
Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In 
addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along
the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves
and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In
roughly 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher
than this round, and the total water level could be more than a 
foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This 
combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual 
exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year 
event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM PST this evening through 
     Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for 
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for 
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Kennedy / Kummel
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 11 12:30:03 PST 2026