FXUS66 KMTR 151119
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
417 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides 
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Thursday morning with 
   increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the 
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Today and tonight)

An extensive stratus deck has made its way from the coast into the 
Sonoma County valleys, the Monterey Bay region, and the northern 
Salinas Valley with a patch of stratus developing near the Berkeley 
Hills. The stratus deck is expected to develop across the valleys 
with moderate to high confidence that the interior East Bay remains 
clear through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate 
coastal area after sunrise before it starts to build again this 
evening.

The weather pattern across California is dominated by the fringes of 
a ridge over the Pacific Northwest and adjacent waters in the 
Pacific. Temperatures will generally range from near to slightly 
above seasonal averages in the Bayshore and inland regions, to below 
seasonal averages along the coast. With the raw NBM model output 
continuing to overshoot observed temperatures, I have tamped down 
the temperatures within the marine layer influence, which extends 
around 1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at 
Bodega Bay. Highs in the inland valleys reach the 80s, up to the 
lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to 
the 70s across the Bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s 
along the Pacific coast. Most of the area will see Minor HeatRisk, 
corresponding to heat that is common during the summer period and 
comes with a low risk for heat-related illnesses amongst extremely 
sensitive populations. Isolated regions within the area, including 
the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior 
portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within 
the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park, will see 
Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat-related 
illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the 
elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people 
who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or 
hydration. We continue to encourage people taking part in outdoor 
activities big or small to stay hydrated and take breaks in the 
shade.

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas 
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with 
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us 
the highest tides of the summer season. Tonight's high tide has 
passed at the San Francisco tide gauge, where a water level of 1.97 
feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW, was observed at 
11:18 PM on Sunday, which breaks the record for the highest water 
level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm 
season of November to March) which was just set on Saturday evening. 
The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft 
MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) 
at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 
1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is 
continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday 
morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main 
takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The ridge should gradually fill in through Tuesday and Wednesday, 
allowing the temperatures to remain relatively stable through the 
middle of the week. Towards Thursday and Friday, troughing should 
develop across the eastern Pacific and move into the western United 
States, allowing temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages 
into the upcoming weekend. Highs will range from the middle 70s to 
the lower 80s across the inland valleys and the upper 60s to the 
middle 70s along the Bays. Chances for rain are confined to the 
offshore regions and the Sierra Nevada range to the east of the 
forecast area. Towards the beginning of next week, ensemble model 
cluster analysis suggests some form of ridging will return to the 
western United States, and the 8-14 day outlook features a lean (40-
60% probability) towards temperatures above seasonal averages for 
the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Onshore winds prevail due to a SFO-SAC 2.6 mb pressure gradient. 
Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is widespread including an inland 
intrusion of stratus /MVFR-IFR/. Inland stratus will mix out to 
VFR by late morning. Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/ moves inland 
tonight and Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ mixes out 17z today and 
redevelops early Tuesday morning. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 
knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is in the approach and is
forecast to mix out to VFR by 17z today. Stratus redevelops late
tonight and Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus /MVFR/ developed at SJC Airport
and is forecast to mix out to VFR 17z today. VFR for the remainder 
of the day to tonight then stratus will redevelop tonight. For OAK 
Airport, stratus /IFR/ is forecast to prevail to 18z today. VFR for 
the remainder of the day to mid-late evening. Stratus /IFR/ prevails 
tonight and Tuesday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ until late morning, VFR 
this afternoon then stratus /IFR/ redevelops and moves inland this
evening. Stratus prevails tonight and Tuesday morning. Mainly 
onshore winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the Salinas 
Valley in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southerly breezes persist with a low south-southwesterly swell
across most of the coastal waters. Fresh to strong north winds
will develop in the northern outer waters towards Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for 
south and southwest facing beaches.  Hazardous beach conditions are 
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches 
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz 
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has 
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach 
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach 
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by 
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from 
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, 
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 15 06:30:03 PDT 2026