FXUS66 KMTR 301215
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
415 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Another day of persistent fog and stratus in the North Bay 
  (Today/Sunday).

 - Gusty offshore winds across the North Bay interior Wednesday.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.

 - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Today and tonight)

High clouds make life for the meteorologist a little difficult this 
morning, as it blocks the low level clouds that are being 
observed in the North Bay, East Bay, and San Francisco region. The
question for today, is, you guessed it, much like yesterday and 
pertains to if or when will the clouds clear out around there. 
Guidance favors perhaps a few hours earlier today, perhaps the 
early afternoon hours instead of the mid to late. Given that, 
opted to go with slightly higher temperature forecast than 
yesterday's observed temperatures for the N Bay and surrounding 
areas. Highs will still be below normal there by about 0 to 10 
degrees, while the rest of the region is closer to normal for this
time of year. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 103 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

The forecast remains on track for the extended period, with the 
first feature being stratus clearing out for the North and East Bays 
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. An inside slider remains on tap for 
midweek, which will bring breezy conditions to the interior North 
Bay hills Wednesday morning. Conditions will dry out as well in 
terms of minRH values; however, no major fire weather concerns are 
expected. Beyond that, the slider looks to dig south, which should 
allow for upper level ridging to build towards us. Dry weather 
remains in the forecast with near seasonal to slightly warmer than 
normal high temperatures expected for the end of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

A chilly continental air mass with fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/
continues to advect on light offshore winds into the Bay Area 
from the Central Valley. It's VFR over the north Central Coast 
along with a few areas of fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/ in the 
valleys. As mentioned in the public discussion high clouds from 
the north are obscuring the fog and low stratus patterns; heavily
relying on surface observations for the morning 12z TAFs. The SAC-
SFO pressure gradient is 1.6 mb. The high resolution rapid refresh
model forecasts ~ 1 mb SAC-SFO today and this evening, keeping the
light offshore winds going. 

Forecast mix out times are low confidence partly because of the 
incoming cirrus clouds potential to at least initially slow incoming
diurnal warming and mixing. Best probability for VFR will be closest
to the coastline during maximum mixing hours under noon to mid 
afternoon solar heating. Model forecasts show decreasing cirrus
during this time as well. Areas of fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/
redeveloping tonight and Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR stratus ceiling to 17z then MVFR stratus to
20z today. Best probability of VFR will be during the afternoon
and evening, stratus /MVFR/ then forecast to redevelop by 08z
tonight. Northeast to east wind 5 knots becoming northwest near 10
knots 20z today then light and variable tonight and Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR until 18z today, VFR for the
remainder of the day and VFR likely continuing at least tonight,
lower confidence if VFR will continue early Monday morning.
Southeast cold air drainage winds will continue through morning 
to mid afternoon before shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots mid to 
late afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening becoming 
southeasterly cold air drainage winds near 5 knots tonight and 
Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure will remain located off the Oregon coast maintaining
northerly breezes through the week. Northerly flow will increase
through out the day today. Winds will be locally stronger over the
outer waters and coastal jets. Wave heights and swell energy
increase early this week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 828 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue into next week with a
very energetic surf zone.

A beach hazards statement remains in effect for the coastline 
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Sunday 
evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther 
up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip 
currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity 
of jetties, inlets, and piers.

A set of forerunner waves arrive early next week renewing the
danger for sneaker waves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this 
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this 
     evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 30 08:30:02 PST 2025