FXUS66 KMTR 070845
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1245 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - Light rain possible in the North Bay this morning

 - Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach
   conditions continue through Saturday

 - Pleasant weather through the weekend will yield to an unsettled
   weather pattern for the middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals low clouds across the North Bay valleys, 
with scattered stratus extending down into parts of San Francisco 
and the western side of Oakland, with additional patches across 
central San Benito County to the south of Hollister. Farther afield, 
a weak cold front is coming through the North Coast and will keep 
together just long enough to bring a chance for light rain across 
the western parts of the North Bay this morning, particularly the 
Sonoma coastal ranges and the Mayacamas, with chances for 
orographically-induced showers extending as far south as the Half 
Moon Bay region. Accumulations will be light, around a few 
hundredths of an inch at most. 

Light offshore flow has also developed across the higher elevations 
of the Central Coast, with northeasterly winds  at the 925 mb level. 
As for the Bay Area, the SFO-WMC gradient was +4.2 mb as of 
midnight, and remains generally onshore through the late afternoon 
and evening hours today. This timeframe is also when the 925 mb 
winds will turn towards the northeast. In any case, fire weather 
concerns remain low with the fire weather indices remaining below 
seasonal averages.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that there is little to 
no significant sensible weather concerns for today, with the upper 
level pattern transitioning from more zonal flow to a ridging 
pattern through the day. Morning low clouds across the Bay Area will 
retreat to the immediate coast into the afternoon. High temperatures 
reach the lower to middle 70s across the inland valleys, up to the 
upper 70s in the southern Salinas Valley, with the Bays seeing highs 
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the lower 60s prevailing across 
the Pacific Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

The ridge will build into the weekend, and will contribute to more 
general offshore flow across the region, resulting in clear skies 
and temperatures warmer than the seasonal average through Monday. 
Highs across the inland valleys reach the middle 70s to the middle 
80s with the Bays seeing highs in the lower 70s to the lower 80s, 
and mid to upper 60s prevailing at the coast. The thermal belts will 
also activate with mild overnight lows in the higher elevations 
Saturday morning through Tuesday morning.

Monday night into Tuesday will mark the start of the ridge eroding, 
allowing a deep upper level low to form in the east Pacific and 
impact the West Coast beginning Wednesday. All model guidance 
generally agrees that the rain should start light in the North Bay 
before spreading southward with increasing coverage and intensity. 
There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact impacts of this 
system, and in particular, ensemble model cluster analysis is 
beginning to note a significant strand of model guidance that keeps 
rain chances around through Saturday the 15th. However, most model 
and Atmospheric River guidance continues to lean towards the 
beneficial side of the impacts to our region. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak frontal boundary will bring a small chance for light rain
to the North Bay terminals through Friday morning. This feature
will cause the marine layer to briefly deepen as it moves through
the Bay Area before quickly compressing again Friday afternoon.
The timing of this will likely allow most terminals outside of STS
and HAF to dodge low marine layer stratus in the morning, but it 
could go either way, particularly for the more coastal terminals,
and the confidence in this set of TAFs is low. Otherwise winds 
will remain mostly light before a gentle onshore breeze becomes 
established Friday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...There is a 50-60 percent chance of MVFR stratus
to move over the terminal for a few hours around sunrise as the
weak boundary moves through. As such the confidence in the TAF is
quite low, and there is a roughly equal chance that the ceilings
don't form over the terminal in the morning. The marine layer 
will become more organized by midday, but will very likely remain 
cloud free through the afternoon hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The latest observations and high
resolution models are leaning more towards clear skies persisting
through the TAF period for both MRY and SNS. There is still a
chance for a sunrise surprise, but the probability of this is now
less than 20%.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 931 PM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Rough seas are ongoing across the coastal waters dominated by a
moderate period WNW swell. These seas will gradually diminish to
moderate by Saturday with more favorable conditions persisting
into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1118 AM PST Thu Nov 6 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all 
coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and 
rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out 
of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of 
jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn
your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and 
rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning 
with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST 
     Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 7 02:30:03 PST 2025