FXUS66 KMTR 142000
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
100 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

 - Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across
   the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(This evening through Friday)

Clear skies and warm temperatures have set up across the region as 
mild ridging comes over the state. High temperatures today and 
Friday range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s across the inland 
valleys, perhaps reaching the upper 80s in the warmest spots, the 
upper 60s to the upper 70s along the Bays, and the upper 50s to 
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy northwest winds will 
develop at the coast, along ridgelines, and through gaps and passes 
with gusts up to around 25 mph, but this will be relatively mild 
compared to the forecast for the next few days.

Friday will mark the start of a developing inside slider as an upper 
level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and starts to sharpen 
the pressure gradient across northern California. Northwest winds 
will strengthen across the region leading to gusts reaching 35 to 45 
mph along the coast, across the ridgelines, and through favored gaps 
and passes including the northern Salinas Valley; the rest of the 
forecast area should expect to see gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph. 
While favored coastal locations and ridgelines may reach Wind 
Advisory criteria (gusts of 45 mph or above), I'm not seeing gusts 
these strong over a wide enough region to issue one at this time. 
Still, these strong winds could still loosen branches and lead to 
difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles and isolated 
power outages, especially when combined with hazardous wind-driven 
waves and blowing sand at the beach and elevated fire danger across 
the interior. These winds will contribute to hazardous beach 
conditions, notably large wind-driven waves and blowing sand. A 
Beach Hazards Statement has just been issued from Friday through 
Monday due to these risks. See the BEACHES and FIRE WEATHER sections 
for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

The inside slider begins in earnest over the weekend as the upper 
level trough stalls out over eastern Washington on Saturday before 
dipping into the Great Basin on Sunday. This turns the upper level 
flow from a more zonal (west to east) pattern into a more meridional 
(north to south) pattern, and although the upper level flow remains 
just to the west of due north, it will be enough to cause the winds 
to turn more to the north and for humidities to dip, especially in 
the interior regions where daytime relative humidity values from 10 
to 25% are possible on Sunday. 

The track of the low will also maintain the tight pressure gradient 
over central California and maintain strong gusts over the region. 
In addition, there is the potential for the mixing down of stronger 
gusts across the coastal regions over the weekend as a coastal jet 
sets up. The strongest gusts are expected to begin Saturday through 
Monday morning, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible at the coast, 
along the interior ridgelines of the North and East Bay, and through 
the northern Salinas Valley and Altamont Pass; these strong gusts 
could result in isolated downed trees. Can't rule out a Wind 
Advisory for the coastal regions and the adjacent mountains for the 
weekend. By Monday afternoon, the upper level low will weaken and 
pull away into the northern Rockies, allowing the pressure gradient 
to slacken and a developing upper level ridge over the eastern 
Pacific to begin influencing the weather pattern.

Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will back into the 70s to lower 
80s in the inland valleys before the warming trend resumes early 
next week. With California sitting between the building ridge and 
the lingering trough, high temperatures across the region are still 
a little uncertain. After collaboration with our neighbors and 
national centers, the raw NBM output, which continues to run a 
little warm, was tamped down by as much as 3 to 5 degrees, 
especially along the coastal regions. The general pattern will be 
for highs in the 80s to the lower 90s inland, the middle 70s to the 
middle 80s near the bays, and the 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific 
coast. Towards and after the end of the 7-day outlook, the 
uncertainty ramps up as the interaction between the ridge over the 
Pacific and any troughing over the Rockies becomes more variable 
within the ensemble space. As noted yesterday around this time, the 
inland valleys could see highs varying by around 5 or 10 degrees 
around the current forecasts, while coastal and bayshore regions 
could see drastically different changes in the outlook, especially 
if a marine layer influence returns to more of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by early afternoon 
before diminishing late in the evening and overnight. The greatest 
potential for sub-VFR conditions will be along coastal sites (HAF & 
MRY) late this evening and into early Friday morning. Elsewhere, 
high confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. 
Onshore winds increase once again Friday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. High confidence of 
onshore winds increasing this afternoon and will persist through 
late evening before diminishing slightly overnight and into Friday
morning. Gusts are likely to exceed 30 kt this afternoon and into
early evening. Onshore winds will once again increase Friday 
afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Weaker onshore winds this afternoon 
compared to SFO. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. High confidence of onshore winds 
increasing this afternoon and will persist through early evening 
before diminishing into Friday morning. Moderate confidence for 
sub- MVFR conditions to develop around 05Z at MRY late tonight and
potentially lower to LIFR around 09Z Friday with SNS a TEMPO 
group from 12Z-16Z (IFR). Conditions are likely to return to VFR 
by mid-to- late morning on Friday. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Hazardous marine conditions have become widespread with gale 
force winds affecting the northern waters into Thursday afternoon.
Gale-force gusts winds become widespread Friday morning and 
continue to gain strength over the weekend. Locally stronger gusts
will be possible along some of the coastal jets where storm force
winds will be possible. The strong winds will drive seas between 
12 to 19 feet. Winds peak on Sunday and reduce steadily into the 
next work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore 
winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak
gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40 to 50 mph along 
the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. 
Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the 
interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday 
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a 
modest offshore flow continues into the work week. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement has just been issued for west facing
beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM
Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to
hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous 
swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large 
breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant 
physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay
strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting 
sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be 
hampered by reduced visibilities from the spray and sand. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Monday 
     morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 14 14:30:03 PDT 2026