FXUS66 KMTR 081745
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
945 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the
   upcoming week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late week 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Patchy to areas of dense fog were reported this morning across the 
North Bay Valleys, Russian River valley, in and around Livermore, 
locations such as Marina, and down in the southern Salinas Valley 
(around King City). These conditions are improving currently and 
expected to continue to do so through mid-to-late morning as surface 
temperatures warm throughout the afternoon. The cold front to our 
north is dissipating and will have only minor impacts to this 
afternoon's forecast maximum temperatures.  However, high clouds 
will continue over the North Bay and Bay Area through much of the 
day. That said, no updates are anticipated at this time. 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

A cold front is forecast to move onshore early Sunday morning, 
mainly impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. As 
it moves on land, it will dissipate rather quickly, therefore no 
rain is expected in our area with this system. Ahead of the front 
however, high and low cloud cover has increased across the Bay Area 
and Central Coast. While low clouds are forecast to burn off by 
Sunday morning, high clouds will remain. Weak cold air advection 
along with an enhanced moisture flux (from the low clouds) will be 
sufficient to slightly decrease temperatures Sunday through Monday 
along the coast and across the Bay Area. Despite this cooling, 
maximum temperatures remain 5-10 deg F above normal at the 
aforementioned locations. The interior South Bay and Central Coast 
valleys are likely to experience temperatures 10-15 deg F above 
normal through Monday.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety 
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal 
Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

High pressure builds over the region as zonal to weak ridging 
reforms in the wake of Sunday's frontal passage. This pattern will 
support another round of gentle offshore flow beginning Monday 
night. As a result, above normal temperatures persist through 
Wednesday.

Thursday is roughly when we can expect conditions to begin to 
change. A deep mid to upper level trough approaches our coast 
allowing winds to shift south-southwesterly. This wind direction may 
assist in drawing in moisture from the Eastern Pacific, though 
confidence remains low on exactly how much transport will occur. 
Both the ensemble ECMWF and GFS members advertise precipitable water 
values around the 75th percentile late next week with a *very* low, 
non-zero chance for thunderstorm activity. The potential for rain 
enters the chat as early as Friday and is likely to persist into the 
weekend. As we get closer to the event, the exact details on the 
system's trajectory and expected rainfall amounts will be refined. 
In the meantime, it is advised to begin preparations for the winter 
season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 937 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the remainder of the day and 
evening hours with MVFR/IFR ceilings likely for most terminals 
overnight into Monday morning. Patchy dense fog may impact the North 
Bay and South Bay terminals at times overnight through mid-morning 
Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...Lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings will erode over the
next hour or so (~1830z). Expect VFR for the remainder of today
and this evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings 
developing after midnight and continuing through mid-morning 
Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail the remainder
of today and early evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected
to develop shortly before midnight and persist through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 901 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters will
persist into the beginning of the upcoming work week with rough to
very rough seas and hazardous conditions for small craft.
Elevated mixed long period swell will continue through the week,
increasing further by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 350 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice.
However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach
Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf
zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As
such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents
will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at
exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring 
tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than 
normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, 
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to 
avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There 
may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range 
forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next 
week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 
11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 
ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft 
above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above 
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal 
(7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up 
to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and 
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later 
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, 
respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous 
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of 
sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 8 10:30:03 PST 2026