FXUS66 KMTR 122150
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
150 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

 - Hazardous water conditions at Pacific Coast Beaches

 - Above normal warmth for the next 6 to 10 days


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Largely quiescent conditions are forecast tonight and into the 
day on Tuesday. Current water vapor imagery shows ridging across 
the Pacific Southwest. A plume of mid/upper level moisture will 
stream in from the Central Pacific, but be largely deflected to 
our north. While this conveyor of moisture may send a few 
mid/upper level high clouds across our region, we'll see 
negligible impacts from this feature.

The dry airmass coupled with winds below 10 mph and mostly clear 
skies will support ideal radiational cooling, particularly in the
valleys. Taking a look at the past couple of days, our valley 
locations have been averaging just below some of the median 
blended guidance. While the airmass continues to gradually modify,
it does appear that we'll have to contend with another night of 
impactful cold. A Cold Weather Advisory has been posted for some 
of our valley locales that will likely experience optimal 
radiational cooling. Be sure to tend to sensitive 
crops/vegetation, tend to any pets/livestock that are sensitive to
the cold, and be mindful/judicious regarding indoor heating 
appliances.

After what should be our last chilly morning, Tuesday (and really
onward) appears picture perfect weather wise for outdoor 
activities. If you're headed to the beach, please be sure to 
exercise caution as long period (above 15 second) westerly swell 
will arrive along our shoreline. The energetic surf zone will 
feature an enhanced risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Be 
sure to check conditions if headed to the beach. Otherwise, high 
temperatures will run around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The long term forecast period remains rather uneventful as it 
pertains to the sensible weather elements. A series of potent 
storm systems will continue to generate favorable swell that will 
impact our shorelines. This translates to a continued risk for 
hazardous beach conditions. Given the holiday weekend and very 
nice weather, we'll continue to advertise a threat for sneaker 
waves and rip currents. Be sure to check water conditions before 
venturing out!

The 6 to 10 day outlook calls for above normal warmth and above 
normal precipitation. Digging into the tercile data, the breakdown
is quite stark, with over 70% probabilities for above normal 
warmth across much of the area. This is courtesy of mid-level 
ridging becoming anchored across our region. The lack of onshore 
flow (with brief bursts of offshore flow) will allow for a larger 
diurnal temperature range. While there's a non-zero risk for MinTs
to near "impactful" levels, the airmass should remain rather 
stagnant, with no real sources of cold or warm air advection. 
Beyond the 10 day period, there are some hints at a pattern shift.
Some camps in our model suite of over 200 pieces of guidance 
break down the upper ridge quickly in favor of more 
troughing/onshore flow. Other guidance keeps the ridge in place a 
little longer. While these details will be ironed out over the 
next several days, it does appear that at least a brief period of 
more active weather may be in store as we approach the end of the 
month. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR with the exception of fog at STS and haze at HAF. This will
continue to be the case over the next 24 hours. Guidance brought
fog back in for STS again tonight. Probabilistic guidance is 
greater than 40% for fog development. Therefore, will have a few 
hours of dense fog for STS. Less than 15% chc for fog elsewhere 
and left it out for the time being. Winds are relatively light 
with some diurnal pushes to moderate. Not really impactful for 
most aircraft.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Stronger drainage push for SNS
overnight. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 934 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific and low pressure near the
coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the
waters through midweek. Additionally, a longer period moderate
swell will impact the coastal waters leading to a more rough sea
state and enhanced shoaling near the coast, harbor entrances, and
bars.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

A long period swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with 
increased risks for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore 
break. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through
Thursday.

Be sure to check conditions before heading to the beach. Stay off
of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. 
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn 
your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide 
forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ506-
     510-516-518.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jan 12 14:30:02 PST 2026