FXUS66 KMTR 170534
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
934 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

 - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the weekend

 - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

High temperatures were above to well above normal today. There 
was one record high temperature at the long term sites, Redwood 
City reached 77F today. The previous record on this date was 74F 
in 2014. Strong 500 mb high pressure continues to reside over the 
forecast area, along with a strong offshore pressure gradient from
Winnemucca to SFO Airport. Patchy dense fog redevelops tonight 
and Saturday morning. Dry weather continues through the middle of 
next week.

The evening 00z Oakland upper air balloon was a missed flight due
to time needed to fix/reset the system. Routine twice daily (00z 
and 12z) upper air balloon flights are to resume 12z tomorrow 
(Saturday).

Forecast is on track, no further updates anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

Once again, the North Bay Valleys have cleared out of the fog 
with some still lingering across the far interior East Bay 
Valleys. With high pressure aloft, it is another very warm day 
across the region. This is especially so across the Central Coast 
with temperatures already in the upper 60s to low 70s. In the 
higher terrain across all of the region, temperatures range from 
the mid 70s to low 80s. 

Tonight, expecting another round of fog to develop across the 
West Delta, North Bay Valleys, and East Bay Valleys as similar 
conditions are likely. 

Tomorrow, similar conditions as today are expected across much of
the region as the high pressure largely remains the dominate 
feature and offshore winds in the higher elevations persist. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1241 AM PST Fri Jan 16 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

Nice, dry weather will continue for the next several days. Some 
high clouds will roll in from the south this weekend, which should
moderate both max and min temperatures a bit, while producing 
some colorful sunrises and sunsets. Ensemble cluster analysis 
shows high confidence that the strong ridge at 500 mb over the 
Gulf of Alaska will gradually erode over the next 5-7 days. The 
uncertainty grows beyond the middle of next week, but either zonal
flow or a troughing pattern seems more likely than continued 
ridging. While the change at the surface will be subtle, onshore 
flow will gradually return, high temperatures will cool a few 
degrees, and coastal clouds will start creeping back in by the 
middle of next week. If the pattern becomes more active, there is 
a chance for very light rain as early as next Thursday, with a 
stronger signal for more substantial precipitation by the middle 
of the following week (end of January).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

Surface high pressure continues over the Great Basin resulting in
offshore winds. The WMC-SFO pressure gradient is 12.8 mb and SAC-SFO
is 0.6 mb. VFR continues in the 06z TAFs except for areas of hazy
conditions reducing surface (and slantwise visibility especially at
sunrise/sunset) visibility to MVFR. Patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/ also 
developing tonight and Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light wind.

SFO Bridge Approach...Slantwise visibility may be reduced especially
at sunrise/sunset, otherwise similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds becoming east to southeast 5 to
10 knots tonight and Saturday morning, shifting to onshore 5 to 10
knots late Saturday afternoon. Winds shifting to east to southeast
5 to 10 knots Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 803 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week. Surface
high pressure over the Great Basin will result in gentle offshore
breezes. Light seas continue into early next week before the next
round of long period swell arrives and brings light to moderate 
seas.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 16 22:30:03 PST 2026