FXUS66 KMTR 110839
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
139 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

 - Well above normal temperatures through the forecast period

 - Widespread minor HeatRisk through Saturday, areas of moderate 
   HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Today through Friday)

Our region will be on the eastern periphery of upper-level shortwave 
ridging across the Eastern Pacific Ocean through Thursday. As a 
result, a quick warmup will ensue with temperatures around 15 
degrees above normal away from the immediate coast. Fortunately the 
location of the ridge will still allow for onshore flow which will 
keep things comfortable at night and temperatures from running away. 
The only record high in jeopardy in the short term is SJC on 
Thursday with a maximum temperature forecast of 81 degrees which 
would tie the record from 2007. A passing subtle upper-level 
shortwave trough will tamp down the ridge and reinforce onshore 
flow, pressing pause on the warming trend on Friday. Of most impact 
in the short term will be minor HeatRisk. To mitigate your risk: 
increase hydration with water, reduce time spent outdoors or stay
in the shade when the sun is strongest, and open windows at night
and use fans to bring cooler air inside buildings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Saturday through Tuesday)

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high 
amplitude upper-level longwave ridge will begin to move into the 
region from the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. As the 
aforementioned ridge encroaches our area Sunday, this will veer 
winds to become northerly which will only act to further warm and 
dry the region. The axis is expected to be overhead on Tuesday, 
which will yield the hottest day of the forecast period. While 
beyond the official seven day forecast, there is uncertainty in the 
evolution of the ridge. Even with the uncertainty, global ensemble 
clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be dealing with 
anomalously high heights through Thursday of next week. To put this 
into context, we will be in record breaking territory Sunday through 
Tuesday. This is not just with temperatures (read the CLIMATE 
section below), but monthly records for 850 mb temperatures and 500 
mb heights which are both good indicators for the type of air mass 
that we are dealing with. Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on 
Saturday will give way to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through 
Tuesday. To mitigate your risk: reduce time in the sun during the 
warmest part of the day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool 
place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler 
times of the day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air 
moving and open windows at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Gentle northwest winds diminishing to 
become light and variable overnight, with moderate onshore flow 
resuming Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period with breezy west winds 
continuing for another couple of hours. Winds become light after 
midnight before breezy onshore flow returns Wednesday afternoon into 
the evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. At MRY, gentle 
winds will veer from the northeast to the northwest over the course 
of Wednesday morning, while during the same period, breezy northwest 
winds will develop at SNS. Winds will become light again during the 
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 831 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gale force gusts across the outer waters will gradually dissipate
into Wednesday morning, but rough seas and fresh to strong
northerly breezes will persist into the next weekend. Winds and
seas will ease into the early part of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 12th, 15th, 16th and 17th.

Location         Mar 12      Mar 15      Mar 16      Mar 17

Santa Rosa       83 in 2007  88 in 2004  91 in 2004  87 in 1996
San Rafael       81 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 1972  84 in 1972
Kentfield        83 in 2005  85 in 2004  86 in 2004  87 in 1914
Napa             86 in 2005  86 in 2004  88 in 2004  92 in 1914
Richmond         81 in 2005  85 in 2004  84 in 1972  83 in 2004
Livermore        84 in 1916  83 in 1972  88 in 1972  87 in 1972
San Francisco    79 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  85 in 1914
SFO Airport      77 in 2007  81 in 2004  82 in 2004  82 in 2004
Redwood City     83 in 2005  84 in 2004  84 in 2004  85 in 2004
Half Moon Bay    75 in 2014  74 in 1974  78 in 1972  83 in 2004
Oakland Museum   80 in 2007  85 in 2004  85 in 2004  85 in 2004
San Jose         81 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  88 in 1914
Salinas Airport  83 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 2004  87 in 2004

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT 
     Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 11 04:30:04 PDT 2026