FXUS66 KMTR 161622
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
922 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased 
   risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Short term forecast on track. Morning stratus and fog has started
to retreat and is expected to fully retreat to the coast by the
late morning hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to
yesterday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 
(Today through Wednesday)

High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing
similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep 
and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly 
below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive 
cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to 
the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. 
Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, 
North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will 
remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see 
Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, 
corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses 
amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, 
pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work
or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration.
We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting
time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying 
hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 
10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas.

The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling 
trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 
2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with 
marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and 
onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today.

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas 
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with 
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us 
the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to
be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, 
and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In 
addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to 
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with 
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the 
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to 
never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level
trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move
across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain
over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area,
keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure
system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds
(breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland
cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 
70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees 
below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and
along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by 
Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across
the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer 
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Low-end MVFR/high-end IFR continues at nearly all terminals. 
Marine layer depth of around 1500 ft MSL pushed inland early this 
morning, and will slowly clear back towards the coast by 17-19z. 
Intermittent CIGs at LVK through 15z this morning. Around a 60-75%
chance for clearing at HAF today, best chances being after 20z. 
Clouds push inland again this evening, mainly after 02z Wed, with 
similar depth as this morning. Lesser confidence in CIG at LVK for
Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...BKN-OVC clouds have finally reached SFO where 
they will linger through 17z or 18z before retreating to the 
coast as breezy westerly winds pick up. SKC and VFR should prevail
thereafter, with intermittent gusts around 15 mph through the 
afternoon. Marine layer clouds with bases around 800-1100 feet MSL
return this evening, but will struggle to filter into SFO until 
after 06z Wed or so, clearing out slightly earlier on Wednesday, 
around 15-16z. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will clear back towards the coast by
18-19z with VFR thereafter, but stratus may linger in the 
vicinity through much of the afternoon. Expansion of low clouds 
will occur after 03z Wed, with low-end MVFR conditions for the
approach through at least 16z Wed. 

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...IFR CIGs at OAK and MVFR at SJC, with
the latter prevailing through 16-17z before mixing out. Clouds 
may linger at OAK until closer to 18z, with VFR for both sites for
the afternoon and gusty west to northwest winds up to 15 mph.
Winds weaken and stratus returns around 06z Wed for OAK and 09z 
for SJC. CIGs at SJC may be intermittent at times Wednesday 
morning, with higher confidence of occurrence being after 11z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Clearing of low clouds will occur at a
similar time today as previous days, around 17-18z. Stratus will
linger just offshore through the afternoon, with VFR prevailing at
both SNS and MRY. Low clouds move inland again this evening after
01z, filling into SNS sometime between 01-04z Wed. Bases of clouds
will be similar to those observed this morning, around 800-1100ft
MSL. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 920 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer
waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds to the
weekend, with occasional moderate to fresh winds for San Pablo and
San Francisco Bays. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the
weekend with a low south-southwesterly swell across most of the
coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions 
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped 
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast 
beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check 
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up 
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching 
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into 
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest 
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay 
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside 
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your 
back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tangen
LONG TERM....Tangen
AVIATION...Zuber
MARINE...DS

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 16 10:30:02 PDT 2026