FXUS66 KMTR 111749
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1049 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

 - Sharp cool-down through early week

 - Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell through
   Monday

 - Beach Hazards until Monday evening 

 - Very light rain possible southernmost Monterey County Sunday-
   Monday 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

The northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient has increased to 5.9 mb 
while the onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.0 mb. Surface 
winds are largely gusty from the northwest over the coastal waters
in response to the northerly pressure gradient, however wind 
favored gaps and passes mainly in the East Bay are indicating 
ongoing gusty winds as well. 24 hour temperature trends are mostly
cooler across the forecast area as cold air advection is combining
with nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will be in the 60s/70s, warmest inland. Lows will be in the 40s/30s,
coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 along the immediate 
coastline and bays. 

Spotty very light measurable rain and/or drizzle (less than 0.10")
is possible across southernmost Monterey County due to a surface 
to lower/mid level low pressure circulation (it will be weakening 
since surface pressures are forecast to increase) moving southward
along the Big Sur coast Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather will
prevail over most of the forecast area through early week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The forecast area will remain under cool and dry conditions 
Tuesday with a daytime warming trend developing mid to late week. 
Thursday to Saturday daytime highs are forecast to return above 
mid October normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. 500 mb 
ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late 
week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Post frontal dry airmass led to mostly VFR this morning except a
few CIGs at HAF,MRY,SNS. Dry northerly flow will persist leading 
to VFR all terminals through the period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Diurnal wind patterns.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Hazardous conditions persist over the coastal waters due to fresh
breezes to gale force winds and rough seas. Strongest winds will
be over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point. The strong winds
and long period southerly swell will result in a confused sea
state into the beginning of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Buoy reports this morning still indicated some solid swell 
entering the coastal waters. As such, still seeing an energetic 
the surf zone. Give the observed height and period isolated 
breaking waves 18-20 ft are possible at favored break points. Long
period southerly swell will persist through the weekend, bringing
an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. The 
large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water 
and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially
during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other 
waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the 
water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never 
turn your back on the ocean!

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Oct 11 12:30:03 PDT 2026