FXUS66 KMTR 150652
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1152 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a
   cooling trend begins Sunday into next week

 - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and
   very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and
   Friday

 - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid
   next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(Tonight through Friday)

Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher 
elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through 
Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon 
and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over 
Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore 
winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to 
gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance 
keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph 
with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. 
Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO-
WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb 
Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and 
suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer 
into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but 
slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are 
expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and 
overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s 
to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst 
recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry 
conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the 
potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less 
wildfire.

Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 
80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy 
Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more 
widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during 
peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking 
frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out 
through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect 
minimal cloud coverage overnight.
&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level 
ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High 
temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but 
cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad 
troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 
70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get 
our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure 
system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring 
much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens 
and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below 
normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to
low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through 
late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central 
Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain 
is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to 
meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low
(<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be 
something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some 
high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing 
tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it 
does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z 
before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist 
overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday 
morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the 
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light 
winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate 
northwest flow resumes in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to 
gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before 
the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate seas persist across the outer waters through Friday while
the inner waters see slight to moderate seas. During this time
frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to
building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for 
the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main 
areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and 
East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay 
Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 
45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will 
be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally 
higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both 
areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined 
with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to 
the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Oct 15 02:30:03 PDT 2026