FXUS66 KMTR 121750
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

 - Rain showers taper off by late morning with dry weather 
   through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early
   Saturday morning

 - Widespread rain and gustier winds return Saturday and persist
   into next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

Overall the short term forecast is in good shape, with no changes
needed this morning. We will examine MinT's tonight as there's a 
chance for optimal radiational cooling which could allow 
temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 30s in spots. In 
addition, pockets of fog, potentially dense, may develop tonight 
into Friday morning. Otherwise, we'll be examining the latest NWP 
for what should be a more active stretch of weather later this 
weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Today and tonight)

Offshore, a low pressure system continues to weaken and move 
southwards along the California coast. Precipitation associated with 
this system has largely ended over but KMUX shows a few scattered 
showers lingering over the region. Shower activity will continue to 
diminish through the remainder of the morning with largely dry 
conditions expected for the remainder of the day. As the low 
departs, ridging briefing rebuilds Thursday and Friday which will 
give us a brief break in the rain before it returns this weekend 
into next week. Temperatures warm, slightly, into the low to mid 60s 
across the lower elevations on Thursday while the higher elevations 
stay comparatively cooler in the 40s to 50s. Chillier overnight lows 
return Thursday night into Friday with lows dropping into the low 
40s across the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast. Interior Monterey 
and San Benito Counties will get even cooler with lows dropping into 
the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far southeastern Monterey County 
(Bradley and Fort Hunter Liggett) will reach the low to mid 30s 
Thursday night. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

Dry weather continues into Friday with seasonally warm temperatures 
in the low to mid 60s. For anyone worrying about a prolonged dry 
spell, this does not look to be the case. The upper level ridge 
expected Thurs/Fri will be fairly progressive and is expected to 
exit eastwards Saturday as a deep upper level trough approaches the 
West Coast. This upper level trough and associated surface low will 
then linger offshore of the West Coast Mon/Tues before moving inland 
by mid-week. This will kickstart the return of rain Saturday 
afternoon/evening and will keep us rainy through at least mid next 
week. The question then becomes, well how much rain are we 
expecting? The answer is a little bit complicated as models have a 
large spread in forecast precipitation totals. The NBM alone shows 
quite the spread between the 90th percentile and the 10th 
percentile. For example, the 24 hour precipitation totals from 4AM 
Sunday to 4AM Monday under the 90th percentile show widespread 1.5-
3" with up to 5-6" in the coastal mountain ranges. Comparatively, 
the NBM 10th percentile is much more limited with totals ranging 
from 0.5-1.5". This hopefully provides some context for why QPF 
totals are uncertain and may change as we get closer to this system 
arriving. The initial precipitation forecast forecast shows a 
widespread 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals between 4-6" 
across the coastal mountain ranges from Saturday to Wednesday. This 
matches fairly well with the NBM 50th percentile and the NBM mean. 
All that to say, the upcoming week is likely going to be a wet one 
and the precipitation forecast will continue to be refined as we get 
closer in time to it. We can expect flooding concerns to increase 
this weekend into next week as we see successive days of 
accumulating rain. Soils are on the drier end now but will saturate 
quickly as this event begins. 

Other concerns for the upcoming week include the potential for 
gustier winds Sunday into next week. We can expect gusts between 30 
to 40 mph on Sunday and potentially again next Tues/Wed. Currently 
winds are below Wind Advisory criteria but can't fully rule out that 
one will be needed. There is a low chance (< 20%) for embedded 
thunderstorms starting Saturday as we see multiple rounds of rain 
move through the region. High temperatures will be seasonally cool 
in the upper 40s to 50s across the region for much of the upcoming 
week. Morning low temperatures generally stay in the 40s but we can 
expect cold mornings in the upper 30s to low 40s to return mid to 
late next week as a colder air mass moves in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions persist across much of the region this morning with 
the exception of KLVK where stratus and patchy fog developed within 
the past few hours. Expecting these conditions to return to VFR by 
late morning with a slight increase in onshore winds this afternoon 
and evening. Winds ease into the night and early Friday morning 
before onshore winds return and increase by Friday afternoon. There 
is moderate confidence for sub-IFR conditions at KLVK and KSTS 
Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR 
ceilings at the Bay Area terminals early Friday morning between 12Z-
18Z. Low to moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay 
terminals early Friday morning. Ceilings and/or visibilities are 
likely to improve after 18Z Friday. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by this 
afternoon before easing late in the night. Moderate confidence for 
IFR/MVFR ceilings early Friday morning between 12Z-18Z. Onshore 
winds increase once again by Friday afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by 
the afternoon before easing after sunset. Low to moderate confidence 
for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay terminals early Friday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

Winds will generally relax throughout the remainder of the
morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this
evening and continuing into Friday. Moderate to rough seas are
forecast Friday into the weekend, with 14 to 18 second period
northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to
hazardous boating and near-shore conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, 
excluding the northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and 
continue through early Saturday morning. A moderate to long period
swell will arrive late this evening and will result in an 
increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in 
addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to 
visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of 
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain 
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back 
on the ocean. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Friday 
     night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST 
     Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 12 10:30:03 PST 2026