FXUS66 KMTR 140016
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
516 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Continued hot and dry today and tomorrow for interior 
   communities with Moderate HeatRisk.

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides 
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay 
   Area and Central California Coast.

 - Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 
(This evening through Sunday)

GOES-West visible imagery shows clear skies across most of the area 
with lingering stratus hugging close to the Pacific coastal 
communities and western San Francisco. The stratus will continue to 
recede to the marine environment this afternoon but will return 
overnight. 

Upper-level pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over the 
eastern Pacific. While a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ridging 
will keep afternoon high temperatures warmer than usual, 
particularly for interior areas. High temperatures will be in the 
80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations leading to 
localized Moderate HeatRisk, especially noted in the Santa Clara 
Valley and Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The Heat Advisory will 
end at 7 PM PDT this evening however precautions should continue to 
be taken to alleviate the risk for heat related illnesses Sunday 
through Tuesday. Ways to stay safe during the heat is to wear light 
weight, loose clothing, drink water frequently, and spend time in 
the shade or in air conditioned buildings. Know the difference 
between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat 
stroke is a medical emergency.  

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle 
of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar 
perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a 
combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern 
Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the 
vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to 
bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week. 
While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 
2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest 
observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from 
July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Starting tomorrow, the high pressure situated over the Pacific 
will flatten and begin to weaken slightly, allowing for daytime 
temperatures to gradually cool and return to mid-June 
climatological normal. Usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast 
is expected for the next several days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 355 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A persistence pattern remains in place across the region which is 
bringing increasing confidence for marine stratus to impact most 
terminals tonight and overnight, outside of the deep interior. 
Daytime heating successfully eroded the morning stratus deck back to 
the coast, but a robust evening push is expected to drive IFR to 
LIFR ceilings back inland tonight. Satellite imagery continues to 
hold stratus across KHAF and has now filled in across KSNS. High 
resolution and probabilistic guidance has trended towards stratus 
moving into the adjacent coastal valleys before spilling through the 
gaps and North Bay valleys into the San Francisco Bay overnight. 
Lowest visibility restrictions will be found immediately along the 
coast while the lower-lying inland valleys will see wider-ranging 
and less restrictive visibilities overnight. Conversely, deep 
interior locations will remain free of ceiling impacts. Wind speeds 
to diminish tonight and overnight, with marine stratus burning off 
through tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. 

Vicinity of SFO... High confidence for VFR conditions continuing 
late tonight with moderate confidence that stratus will start will 
fill in across the Bay and into the terminal overnight. Current 
northwest winds will remain a little breezy between 15-20 knots into 
the evening before subsiding after sunset. 

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO 

Vicinity of SJC and OAK... For OAK, VFR is expected to prevail until 
late tonight before stratus pushes in across the Bay, bringing 
likely IFR stratus. SJC will be more removed from the marine 
influence bringing higher confidence for VFR conditions through the 
TAF period, with some some transient low-level moisture possible 
overnight. 

Monterey Bay Terminals... High confidence persistence forecast for 
KMRY and KSNS as the marine layer remains deeply entrenched across 
the bay. Stratus has already filled in across the valley through 
KSNS and will continue to fill in across KMRY over the next several 
hours. Periods of IFR to LIFR cigs are expected overnight along with 
decreasing visibilities through the mid-morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gentle southerly breezes and moderate to rough seas with a low
south-southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal
waters. Fresh to strong breezes will be possible along the Big Sur
coast through this evening. Winds will remain fairly consistent
through the weekend as the seas subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, 
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach 
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply 
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, 
Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for 
Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area 
coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up 
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching 
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into 
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest 
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay 
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside 
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your 
back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Sunday through late 
     Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT 
     Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 13 20:30:02 PDT 2026