FXUS66 KMTR 151757
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
957 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

 - Rain continues to spread across the region today.

 - Rain continues this week as additional storm systems arrive

 - Strong winds arrive Sunday and continue through mid-week; Wind 
   Advisory likely for the Central Coast Monday into Tuesday

 - A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday for minor 
   high tide flooding

 - Much colder with mountain snow mid to late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

Picturesque satellite image this morning shows an occluded surface
low just west of Cape Mendocino. The associated warm sector 
continues to produce popcorn showers or scout showers ahead of 
better forcing from the cold front. The region will still be in 
the warm sector into the afternoon. As such, scattered showers 
will persist. Some of these showers may produce brief heavy rain. 
Steadier rain and more widespread rain will accompany the cold 
front as it grazes our coastline later today and tonight. 

We're seeing pressure falls and subsequent tightening of gradients
with the surface low. Therefore, an uptick in winds is occuring
over the higher terrain and immediate coastline. An impressive
gust to 49 mph at Point Reyes with 40-45 mph interior N Bay Mts.
Other wind spots are in the 25-35 mph. 

No update needed this morning.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery this morning shows the area of low pressuring west 
of California, while a frontal boundary approaches the offshore 
waters of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain showers will continue 
to taper in, eventually becoming late in the day or early evening 
hours. Associated with that, will be an uptick in southerly winds 
throughout the day bringing widespread gusts up to 15-30 mph. The 
windiest areas will be along the coast and elevated terrain where 
gusts to 45 mph, perhaps locally higher will be observed. In terms 
of rainfall amounts for today, the highest amounts will be in the 
North Bay 0.6-2.5" and around 0.6-1.75" Santa Cruz Mountains and 
Santa Lucia. Elsewhere amounts will range from 0.25-1.0" for the San 
Francisco Peninsula, and about 0.1-0.5" for the interior Central 
Coast and East and South Bay counties. The WPC has maintained a 
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the potential for flash 
flooding over much of the Bay Area, should we get moderate to heavy 
periods of localized rainfall. This would be conducive with the 
passage of the front and any stronger showers or 
isolated thunderstorms. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Ensemble and cluster analysis show upper level 
troughing holding over the region. This will lead to additional storm 
systems moving through the area, bringing periods of rain and wind. 
The first round for the work week, will be on Monday as an upper 
level low swings into the central portion of CA. This will likely 
occuring in time for the morning commute, creating slick roadways 
and perhaps ponding on roadways or poor drainage flooding. Rain 
continues into the early afternoon, before tapering off in the 
evening. The WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall and the 
potential for flash flooding from the Gold Gate area southward, 
clipping Oakland and a good portion of the South Bay. A Slight Risk 
of Excessive Rainfall is also painted over the Santa Lucia and 
Monterey Coast. And in terms of thunder, the SPC now has general 
thunder over the majority of the region. 

Looking at the next system, we'll see see more wind and rain with a 
new flavor added to the forecast. Colder air. Precipitation will 
start off as rain, but by late Tuesday into Wednesday there will 
likely be some transition to all snow for the higher elevations 
across the region. Rainfall amounts Monday night through Wednesday: 
1-1.5" most areas and up to 2-3" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa 
Lucia Range. Snow levels from 4000-5000feet to about 2200-4300ft by 
Tuesday afternoon/evening and then down to 1500-2700ft by Wednesday 
morning. The lowest levels will be around around the North Bay by 
Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations for the highest North Bay 
peaks look to be around an inch or so at this time, and the for the 
Diablo Range perhaps a couple of inches on the highest peaks. For 
the Santa Lucia, 10-20" is not out of the question for the Santa 
Lucias. Will likely need a Winter Wx Advisory for this area 
Tuesday/Wednesday. Winds will also be periodically gusty during this 
time frame, likely hitting Wind Advisory criteria late 
Monday/early Tuesday into Wednesday. 

With cold and wet conditions, we will need to assess for Cold 
Weather Advisories or Extreme Cold Warnings for Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Chilly overnight lows linger into late week, which could 
lead to additional Cold products being needed.

As we head into the late part of the week and weekend, another storm 
system arrives. We may get a brief dry period here if weak upper 
level ridging is able to build. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mostly VFR this morning with more moderate rain showers moving 
into the North Bay. As the frontal boundary approaches the coast 
and potentially remains offshore, expecting MVFR visibilities 
and/or ceilings at times when heavier rain showers move through 
the region. Southerly winds will continue to increase and become 
gusty at times throughout the afternoon before easing a bit late 
in the evening and into Monday morning. Slight chances for 
thunderstorms will build in the marine environment with slight 
chances for these storms to move inland. However, do not have 
mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs at this time. Greater 
probability for lowering ceilings to MVFR (potentially lowering to
IFR at times especially across the Monterey Bay Area, North Bay, 
and coastal TAF sites) early Monday morning. Periods of rain 
showers will persist through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast to 
persist through much of the day with periods of MVFR at times of 
heavier rain showers. Southerly winds will also increase 
throughout the afternoon before easing late in the evening and 
into Monday morning. There is moderate confidence for visibilities
and/or ceilings to lower to MVFR early Monday morning. Winds are 
forecast to become offshore early to midmorning on Monday as the 
surface low pushes into southern California. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast to 
persist through much of the day with periods of MVFR at times of 
heavier rain showers. Southerly winds will persist with stronger 
gusts through the afternoon before easing late in the evening and 
into early Monday morning. By late evening, MVFR visibilities and/or 
ceilings are forecast to return. There is low probability for IFR 
conditions early Monday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 955 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

Light showers are moving through the waters with building 
southerly winds. Rain chances increase through the afternoon with 
rain rates also increasing. This will be the start of multiple 
storm systems moving through the waters over the next week. Expect
fresh to strong southerly breeze to generate rough seas. 
Southerly winds strengthen today and becoming strong with gale 
force gusts along the coast. Stronger winds are likely to last 
through midweek as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm 
chances increase behind the initial front and linger through 
Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor
high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay
through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the 
San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the 
San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM 
Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing 
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast 
and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N 
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 15 14:30:03 PST 2026