FXUS66 KMTR 241908
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1208 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening 
   through the weekend

 - Temperatures near seasonal averages throughout early next week

 - Gradual warming for the second half of next week with 
   increasing Moderate Heatrisk potential across the interior

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)

Stratus has cleared to the coast and out over the Pacific this 
afternoon. As such, temperatures are forecast to reach the 60s to 
lower 70s in the west/northwest facing locations near the coast, 
70s to lower 80s across the bayshore and Santa Cruz region, 80s to
lower 90s across the interior, and mid-to-upper 90s across the 
warmest spots in the interior Central Coast. 

For tonight into Saturday morning, the marine layer is forecast 
to compress slightly to around 1,000 feet as high pressure over 
the Desert Southwest continues to strengthen. However, stronger 
winds above the marine layer will mix down and make for a 
difficult cloud cover forecast. That said, look for similar 
conditions as this morning with less of an inland extend into the 
interior valleys tonight. Patchy fog is also likely along the 
coast, in the Russian River Valley, and into Santa Rosa/Petaluma 
region. Looking like a rinse and repeat for Saturday and Saturday 
night. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)

The ridge over the Southwest is forecast to strengthen into early
next week as the trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast 
weakens slightly. This will keep a shallow marine layer in place 
while also allowing for a slight warming trend across the interior
into early next week. The ridge over the Southwest looks to 
expand westward into southern California allowing for additional 
warming across the interior mid-to-late next week. Given the 
shallow marine layer forecast to remain intact, expecting typical 
ebb and flow of stratus returning to the coast late in the evening
and into the valleys overnight. Stratus will retreat to the coast
by mid-to-late morning each day. There is the potential by late 
next week to see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the 
interior. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Outside of HAF, VFR is anticipated to prevail this afternoon at
all terminals. Stratus continues to erode even across the San
Mateo peninsula and there's some confidence that cigs will lift at
HAF. Satellite imagery indicates a disorganized marine layer and
this increases the degree of uncertainty with regard to the return
of stratus tonight into Saturday morning. Confidence is highest 
that LVK, SJC, and APC. Local effects along the Russian River 
Valley should support the development of IFR ceilings/visibility 
at STS, though the duration may be shorter than the previous 
night. Stratus should develop along the immediate Pacific Coast 
between 00Z-03Z with HAF having the greatest potential for MVFR 
and IFR ceilings. The wind field should support MVFR to IFR 
ceilings at OAK, but confidence is low to medium. If the marine 
layer struggles to develop, VFR may prevail through the entire TAF
period. Otherwise, onshore breezes will increase this afternoon, 
with gusts of 20-25 knots, especially HAF, APC, and OAK. 

Vicinity of SFO...Clouds will continue to scatter this afternoon,
with VFR and winds elevating to near 20 knots. Peak wind gusts 
are advertised to approach 30 knots, with a reasonable worst case 
scenario gust forecast of 32-35 knots. Confidence in the ceiling 
forecast is low, and it's possible that VFR may prevail through 
the entire TAF set. This seems a little too optimistic, however, 
and there's enough indication that some stratus will push through 
the San Bruno Gap and impact the terminal near or just after 
sunrise Saturday (though it may be intermittent). The latest TAF 
set has pushed the onset time for MVFR back by a few hours. 
Depending on when coastal stratus develops, additional refinements
to timing are likely. Winds will rebuild through the day on 
Saturday, but peak magnitudes are expected to be closer to 25 
knots. 

SFO Bridge Approach...The potential to remain VFR with just a few
clouds is higher compared to SFO. Otherwise, conditions will be
similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently with a delay in the return
of MVFR and IFR ceilings tonight. Ceiling onset has been pushed
back as there's indication that coastal stratus may be slower to 
re-develop. There's low confidence in the onset time of MVFR 
stratus at MRY. While MVFR stratus may arrive prior to 07Z, it is
anticipated to be intermittent. There's around a 60% chance for 
cigs to lower into the IFR category at MRY. The potential for IFR 
farther east drops down to under 50% at SNS and at this time MVFR, should
it transpire, is anticipated to be the predominant flight 
category. VFR should make a return prior to the end of the current
valid TAF set, but trends will be monitored. Otherwise, largely 
typical onshore breezes are forecast with speeds between 8 and 12 
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Moderate to fresh northwest breezes with strong to near gale-foce 
gusts will continue through the weekend. Moderate wind driven 
seas will also prevail, resulting in potentially hazardous boating
conditions, even across the portions of SF and Monterey Bays. 
Long period southerly swell from tropical cyclone activity will 
arrive tonight and persist into the beginning of next week. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 830 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Hurricane Fausto in the tropical Eastern Pacific will generate a 
long period southwesterly swell which is forecast to reach the 
coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this 
weekend. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the 
primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet 
along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like 
Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker 
waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking 
waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This 
can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people 
being swept into the cold water; hence the name "sneaker". Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from 
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, 
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! A 
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through 
Tuesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast. 

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Tuesday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...Bain

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 24 12:30:03 PDT 2026
  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 24 14:30:05 PDT 2026