FXUS66 KMTR 040457
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
957 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

 - Marine layer will remain in place each day, retreating to the
   coast each afternoon.

 - Minor warming through Independence Day with near-normal 
   temperatures.

 - Brief cooldown early week, followed by renewed warming for the
   second half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Stratus is beginning to build inland with the clouds coming into
the Petaluma Gap, the Golden Gate into Berkeley, and the Monterey
Bay region, with further expansion expected through the night.
With the Independence Day holiday tomorrow, people planning to
celebrate with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their
fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire 
extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with 
open flames.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)

An exceptionally ordinary July day is on tap weather-wise for the
San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast. We woke up 
this morning with the usual marine stratus blanketing majority of 
the area, including inland North Bay and East Bay valleys, and 
have progressed through the morning with an expeditious mix-out. 
Forecast highs will be about as close to normal as they can be for
early July: 50s and 60s along the immediate Pacific Coast, 70s to
around 80 along the San Francisco Bay shoreline, and 80s to around
90 for interior locations. All in all, a great weather day for 
the region.

This week's persistent troughiness over Western North America has
started to weaken as an upper-level ridge develops over the Four 
Corners region. Locally, this will result in a few degrees of 
warming from yesterday to today, and perhaps an additional few 
degrees of warming for interior communities on Independence Day. 
HeatRisk for the holiday will remain in the Little/No (green) 
category along the immediate Pacific Coast and Minor (yellow) for 
the San Francisco Bay shoreline and interior locations. If you 
have travel plans elsewhere in California for the holiday weekend,
HeatRisk throughout the Golden State will predominately be Minor 
(yellow), with a few exceptions for the hottest deserts with 
Moderate (orange) HeatRisk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)

The Four Corners upper-level ridge further strengthens for the 
second half of the weekend. For Central and Northern California, 
we should remain displaced enough to see any impactful influence 
as a weak shortwave and vort max will knock temps back by several 
degrees on Sunday. Monday will be largely a repeat with minimal 
day-to-day changes forecast. By the middle and end of next week, 
ensembles migrate and strengthen the upper-level ridge towards the
Desert Southwest, which will result in renewed warming for much 
of California -- minus the coastal locations that will benefit 
from the marine stratus. Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14
day outlooks both favor increased chances of above-normal 
temperatures for much of the Western United States as we dive 
deeper into July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds increase across the 
region into the afternoon becoming moderate to breezy. Winds will 
reduce into the night, becoming light for most areas into Monday 
morning. Cloud cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the 
late night with MVFR CIGs. This cloud cover erodes into the mid 
morning on Monday, leading to widespread VFR again.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west winds 
build into the mid afternoon with gusts around 22kts expected. Gusts 
cut off into the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to 
become light into early Monday with breezy west winds returning that 
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Expect moderate 
winds to build in the afternoon across the area with gusty conditions 
affecting SNS. Winds reduce into the evening as come low clouds 
begin to flow through the area. MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals 
into the late night. These CIGs look to erode into late Monday 
morning at SNS and slightly beyond the TAF period for MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will shift slightly
allowing winds to diminish through Monday. Locally hazardous
conditions will persist over the northern outer waters through
early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into
Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread
stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and
continuing through the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...MKK

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 3 22:30:03 PDT 2026