FXUS66 KMTR 110828
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1228 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight 
   conditions

 - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches today
   and tomorrow and again throughout the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(Today and Monday)

High pressure in the Intermountain West and a coastal trough off the 
California Coast will be responsible for our weather for the next 
week. Calm, clear, and cool conditions will allow for efficient 
radiational cooling - this is why we have been cold the past three 
mornings. Everything seems to be on track with temperatures 
generally within two degrees of the forecast. As such, cold weather 
products are in effect through 9AM this morning.  Patchy radiational 
fog will be another hazard through the morning with STS just 
developing it as I was typing this. Today and tomorrow will be very 
similar with afternoon temperatures rising to 5 degrees above normal 
and overnight temperatures falling to 5 degrees below normal. 
Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches today 
with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and 
large shore break. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, 
stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and 
rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Bonus: high clouds 
streaming in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to make 
for mesmerizing sunrises and sunsets.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(Tuesday through Saturday)

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high 
amplitude upper-level longwave ridge and its axis will dominate our 
long term forecast. This will result in a warming trend of 10 
degrees, with minimum temperatures slower to respond than maximum 
temperatures. No records are forecast to be in jeopardy. 
Unfortunately, periods of hazardous beach conditions with an 
increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large 
breaking waves are expected through the week, coinciding with great 
beach weather. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay 
off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, 
and never turn your back on the ocean! Rain is still going to have 
to wait for beyond the long term forecast. The 20th continues to be 
the earliest possible return with the ECMWF and GFS showing some 
form of troughing returning, but agreement is terrible not only 
between the deterministic solutions but also across their ensemble 
members.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 924 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR through the TAF period for all sites but STS which will see 
spotty fog into the late night. High clouds continue to build into 
the region through the TAF period. Winds will mostly say light 
through the TAF period with directions being mostly variable with 
some localized effects determining the wind directions at a few of 
the TAF sites. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect mostly light 
and variable winds through the night with winds turning northeast 
late Sunday morning, then more northerly to northwest later into the 
day, and westerly that night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Light and 
variable winds are turning east-southeasterly across the area, 
with winds becoming more moderate for SNS in the late night. 
Winds weaken into Sunday afternoon, becoming variable once again.
Winds will turn southeast again into Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 924 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

Expect mostly light winds and swell through much of Sunday. A
longer period and larger northwesterly builds Sunday afternoon
producing a rough sea state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild
in the late work week. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through
the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 112 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST Sunday and
continue through Monday evening for all Pacific Coast beaches from
Sonoma to Monterey County. A longer period moderate swell will 
bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip 
currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result 
in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach
conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the
issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday 
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510-
     513-514-518.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ516.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jan 11 02:30:02 PST 2026