FXUS66 KMTR 232252
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
252 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Quiet week ahead. Great for yard work and holiday activities.

 - Cooler temps this weekend as next system approaches.

 - Potential increasing for gusty offshore winds by the end of the
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 210 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
(This evening through Monday)

Marine layer more solidly in place today as the weak offshore
gradient reverses to weak onshore. Still some airmass compression
going on with weak ridging in place in the wake of last week's
system. Decided not to make any adjustments to high temps today in
the North Bay despite persistent cloud cover keeping things
cooler. There is some signal that they will mix out rapidly this
afternoon and temps rebound a bit. Probably still remaining a bit
cooler than forecast though. Tonight and tomorrow are basically
persistence forecasts (copy/paste) with the weak ridge prevailing
and 500 mb heights basically staying stagnant.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 210 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

If you've read the discussion for the past few days, you already
know what's going on. It's a frustrating pattern, but one very
important to keep an eye on. No noteworthy changes to the forecast
today, so I'll give a general recap of what we're looking at. Very
quiet through this week with a gradual warming trend as we go.
Seriously, it's going to be a great week, weather-wise. However,
by the end of the week things change pretty aggressively in the
general upper level flow pattern. Still looking at a very deep
upper low diving south into the Western US as a result of a very
high amplitude ridge building up into NW Canada and Alaska.
Ensemble guidance has come to a better agreement that we'll likely
see the windy and dry side of this system. What are the impacts
and when do they start? A bit too early to tell exactly the
magnitude and location of the impacts, but right now it looks like
we'll potentially start to see offshore winds increasing in the 
North Bay by the end of this forecast period, late Saturday.

Confidence in impacts will undoubtedly increase through the coming
days, so be sure to keep up with the forecast for the most up to
date information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mix bag of LIFR to MVFR conditions across much of the region this 
morning before conditions return to VFR by late morning or early 
afternoon. Expecting weak onshore flow to develop by this afternoon 
becoming light and variable into Monday morning. Moderate confidence 
for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Monterey Bay terminals late 
this evening and Bay Area terminals early Monday morning. Greater 
confidence for the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to see 
LIFR/IFR conditions Monday morning before conditions return to VFR 
by Monday afternoon. 

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR currently, expected to return to VFR by late 
morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase slightly during 
the afternoon before diminishing early Monday morning. Moderate 
confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Monday morning before 
clearing by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase 
once again Monday afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to return 
late this morning and prevail through this evening before MVFR 
ceilings return. Ceilings and/or visibilities lower to LIFR/IFR 
early Monday morning with winds becoming light and variable. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

Moderate seas will persist through Sunday night with hazardous
marine conditions. Seas then gradually ease through the middle of
the week with gentle to moderate northerly breezes. Winds begin to
increase along with building seas by the end of the week into
next weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A 
long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk 
for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 
feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run 
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over 
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and 
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 23 16:30:02 PST 2025