FXUS66 KMTR 011932
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1132 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 341 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

 - Cooler today with very light rain returning to the North Bay
   and Pacific Coast later today, tonight and Monday morning

 - Above normal temperatures with elevated winds and offshore 
   flow mid to late week

 - Potentially hazardous marine conditions late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

The broad view on satellite shows a low pressure system spinning
off the NorCal coast. Ahead of this system, clouds continue to
stream over the Bay Area and Central Coast. A shallow stratus 
also move inland ushering in low clouds and patchy fog along the 
coast and locally inland this morning. Lastly, if you looked at 
the KMUX radar imagery you probably noticed a few echoes. Despite
echoes, nothing is reaching the ground just yet. Morning sounding
from KOAK shows a rather dry column in the atmosphere. We'll need
to moisten up the column before anything hits the ground.

For the rest of the day, the upper low will continue to inch its
way toward the coast. As such, we'll hold onto clouds this morning
and into the afternoon. There is some clearing/scattering
potential late this afternoon. As for precip, still looking like
this evening and overnight with highest confidence north of the 
Golden Gate. Temps for today int he 60s and low 70s or seasonably 
mild. 

No updates needed.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 449 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
(Today and tonight)

The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.9 mb. Fresh onshore winds from
the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere continue 
to bring cooler air inland. Satellite shows areas of low clouds 
forming in the cooler air intrusion across the Bay Area and north 
Central Coast. Mid to high level clouds continue to move in from 
the southwest. 24 hour surface temperature trends are solidly 
cooler including across the higher elevations with widespread 50s 
and a few spots in the mid to upper 40s. 500 mb height ridging is 
to our east. A closed 500 mb low is ~ 500 miles west-northwest of 
San Francisco and it's forecast to move east across northern 
California tonight and Monday morning. Cooler air with the low 
will bring a chance of wet weather and a slight chance of 
thunderstorms mainly tonight and Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 449 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Light measurable precipitation chances from the North Bay to the
San Francisco Peninsula, including part of the East Bay south to 
the Big Sur Coast Monday morning decrease by Monday afternoon. 500
mb height ridging arrives from the west Monday night and Tuesday. 
Cooler air with surface high pressure arrives Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. From mid to late week surface high pressure 
over the eastern Pacific will steadily strengthen bringing our 
coastal waters gusty northwest winds with land overlap of gusty 
northwest winds. For Friday and Saturday recent ECMWF and GFS 
ensemble means forecast a 7 mb to 9 mb WMC-SFO pressure gradient 
supporting moderate offshore winds. Guidance shows 925 mb and 850 
mb northerly to northeasterly winds increasing from mid to mostly 
late week. If this synoptic pattern verifies it would result in 
dry conditions and downsloping gusty winds to the coastline with 
the potential for larger diurnal temperature ranges from cool/chilly
morning lows (if the valleys decouple from winds aloft) to ~ 10F 
above early March normal daytime highs to the mid to upper 70s if 
not Friday then Saturday perhaps on Sunday too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

Updated several sites as conditions have improved dramatically
with VFR condtions in SF Bay and MRY. A few CU will occasionally
drift over SFO and possibly OAK.

A weak system spinning off the NorCal coast and ample onshore flow
led to a mixed bag early this morning with IFR to VFR conditions
across the terminal sites. Have seen gradual improvement over the
last hour or two and expect this trend as low stratus breaks up
and low to mid cigs begin to scatter. The back edge of SCT is
becoming more apparent over the coastal waters and expect that to
move inland this afternoon. Therefore, mostly VFR this afternoon.
Tonight, a transition IFR with DZ or -SHRA BR and lower cigs most
terminal. Best chc for precip will be coastal sites and N Bay.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR through 19-20Z then VFR. IFR
redevelop tonight with -DZ lingering into the AM rush. Tail end of
the AM rush transitioning back to VFR

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Ample high clouds will limit clearing
potential in the AM and into afternoon. Keeping MVFR to IFR
through the period. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 819 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

A weak storm system passing through Northern California will bring
a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms late
tonight into Monday morning. High chances for precipitation will
be north of the Golden Gate. Seas continue to weaken until mid-
week. However by late week, high pressure strengthening over the
eastern Pacific will likely result in northwest winds to gale
force and steepening seas over 12 feet.|

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Mar 1 12:30:03 PST 2026