FXUS66 KMTR 041117
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
317 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work
   week.

 - Hazardous beach conditions from late tonight through Saturday 
   evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

 - 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
   with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the 
   coastal mountains. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 156 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(Today and tonight)

A strong ridge of high pressure and light offshore winds will 
bring warm temperatures and dry conditions once again to the area 
today. Most areas will see their warmest temperatures of this warm
pattern today, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s near the coast, 
and 70s to near 80 inland. A few spots will approach record high 
temperatures for the date with highs around 10 to as much as 20 
degrees above normal. See the CLIMATE section below for relevant 
record high temperatures for today. Outside of areas of fog in 
the North and East Bay valleys, as well as the southern Salinas 
Valley this morning, skies will be mostly clear. Patchy fog will 
redevelop tonight in similar areas to this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 156 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)

The upper level ridge bringing us warm and dry conditions will 
gradually move east on Thursday, allowing temperatures to cool a 
couple degrees from today. A weak cutoff low will then approach 
the coast and dive south off southern California and Baja 
California Friday and Saturday. This will usher in the beginning 
of a pattern change with temperatures cooling another 5 degrees or
so and clouds increasing.

Confidence is high that a sustained pattern change will take 
place Sunday into early next week as a longwave trough sets up 
along the West Coast. However, confidence in the details 
(timing/strength) is lower. Rain chances will increase from the 
north through the day Sunday, generally reaching 10-30% across the
greater SF Bay area by the afternoon and extending into the 
Central Coast by the evening. Our area is likely to be on the 
southern fringe of the trough, resulting in very light amounts 
from any rainfall with this initial activity. 

Precipitation chances remain elevated Monday and Tuesday 
as the trough along the coast deepens, opening the door for 
additional systems to move through. The trend toward a deeper 
trough brings better potential for higher rainfall amounts, but 
totals are still favored to be light to moderate. This pattern 
will bring much cooler temperatures, dipping a few degrees below 
normal by early next week. Periods of breezy winds will also 
develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

Strong 500 mb high pressure over the forecast area will result in
VFR except for patchy morning fog /LIFR-IFR/. Surface pressure
gradients (and winds) are directed offshore 9.5 mb WMC-SFO and 
1.3 mb SAC-SFO.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light wind direction varying from southeast
to northeast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeast cool air drainage winds
today becoming light and variable mid to late afternoon. Southeast
cool air drainage winds redevelop tonight and Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

Light winds and seas continue today with strong high pressure
over the region. Moderate northwest breezes and building seas will
cause a return of rough seas Thursday night through Saturday.
Northwest winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold
front dropping down from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to
9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1124 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term 
sites for February 4th.

Location           Feb 4th Record High

Santa Rosa         77 in 2018
San Rafael         73 in 2018
Kentfield          75 in 2018, 2001
Napa               72 in 2001, 1984, 1930
Richmond           76 in 2018
Livermore          73 in 1917, 1906
San Francisco      74 in 2018
SFO Airport        75 in 2018
Redwood City       77 in 1984
Half Moon Bay      78 in 2018
Oakland Museum     70 in 2001, 1984
San Jose           76 in 2018, 1963
Salinas Airport    80 in 2018

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Thursday 
     night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for 
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tangen
LONG TERM....Tangen
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 4 06:30:02 PST 2026