FXUS66 KMTR 091222 CCA
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
514 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

 - Chance for coastal drizzle continues through the morning hours

 - Warmer and drier conditions expected Wednesday through Saturday

 - Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for interior locations
   on Wednesday and Thursday

 - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in the
   interior Bay Area late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
(Today and tonight)

Light showers are moving through the Bay Area as an incoming cold 
front drags some moisture through the region. These showers have 
overperformed a little, and we've gotten reports of a few hundredths 
of an inch of rain as far south as the Santa Cruz Mountains. With 
continuing bands of precipitation moving through, have added a 
chance for coastal and foothill drizzle across the Bay Area and 
Santa Cruz County through the night, but accumulations are still 
light and won't top a tenth of an inch across most of the Bay Area. 

Today will mark the beginnings of a pattern change as an upper level 
trough over the Pacific Northwest starts to shift eastwards and 
allow a building ridge to come in from the Pacific. Today's highs 
will be seasonable to cool, but they will be slightly warmer than 
yesterday's with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout 
the inland valleys, up to the upper 80s and near 90 in the warmest 
spots of southern Monterey County, the upper 60s to middle 70s near 
the bays, and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

The pattern change will continue through Wednesday and Thursday as 
the ridge extends into the West Coast while the trough dips a little 
south of due east to create an inside slider-like setup, allowing 
for a dramatic warming of temperatures for the middle and latter 
parts of the week. In addition, strong northerly gusts and low 
humidities late on Wednesday into Thursday could result in elevated 
to near-critical fire weather conditions across the North Bay 
interior mountains, the Diablo range across the interior East Bay, 
and the eastern Santa Clara County mountains. For more information 
on the expected conditions, see the FIRE WEATHER section. 

Hot temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will contribute to 
Moderate HeatRisk across the inland regions, as high temperatures 
reach the 90s into the triple digits across the inland valleys, 
while temperatures reach the 80s to lower 90s close to the bays and 
the 60s to the middle 70s at the Pacific Coast. This corresponds to 
a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for people 
sensitive to heat including children, the elderly, pregnant women, 
people with chronic health conditions, and people who work or live 
outside without adequate cooling or shelter. People spending time 
outdoors should take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty 
of water. 

The ridging pattern will persist Friday into the upcoming weekend 
with the ridge axis further developing into the northeast Pacific 
off British Columbia and the Alaskan panhandle, and the current 
forecast depicts a gradual cooling trend during that time persisting 
into the early part of next week. Confidence remains low regarding 
the time that a marine layer redevelops, but model output hints that 
the marine layer stratus could return as soon as Saturday or Sunday. 
Conversely, without any major large-scale forcing to move the 
general ridging pattern away, temperatures could continue to trend 
warmer for Friday and the following weekend. The extended range 
outlook has around a 50-50 chance that temperatures remain above the 
seasonal average heading into the third week of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to hold into late morning/early afternoon. 
Keeping an eye on drier air mixing to the surface over the North Bay 
terminals, that may only be temporary while cigs hover between 
VFR/MVFR. Once cigs lift this morning expect VFR conditions to 
prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. 

Vicinity of SFO...IFR/MVFR cigs expected to lift by early afternoon 
with breezy onshore flow by the afternoon easing after sunset. VFR 
will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period once cigs 
lift this morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs expected to become MVFR by mid-
morning and VFR by early afternoon with breezy afternoon onshore 
flow easing by sunset. Once cigs lift this morning, VFR conditions
will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Fresh to moderate northwest breezes will build seas today
resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft across the
waters through Thursday afternoon. Gale force gusts will spread
across the northern waters Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Wind and seas begin to ease by Thursday evening and are expected
to stay light through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Hot temperatures, gusty north winds, and low humidities across the 
North Bay interior mountains into the Diablo Range will raise the 
fire weather threats late on Wednesday into Thursday, with a 
particular emphasis on the interior mountains of Napa County. 
Although the strongest winds will remain within the Sacramento 
Valley, gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected to spread into Napa 
County and the Diablo Range south through Santa Clara County, with 
stronger gusts of 40-50 mph possible along the Vaca Mountains along 
Napa County's eastern edge. Meanwhile, daytime humidity retention 
will be very poor with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%, 
while overnight recoveries are likewise poor as RH values top out at 
20-30%. Thus, fuels are expected to dry rapidly, leading to the 
elevated fire weather concerns. Also important to note that even 
with the drizzle and light rain coming through the region, wetting 
rains (rain totals above 0.1") are not expected, limiting any relief 
that will be realized for the midweek period. Elsewhere across the 
district, conditions remain hot and dry, but we're not expecting 
winds to be as strong as they are across the interior North Bay.

We are continuing to monitor the potential for fire weather products 
to be issued for the interior mountains of the North, East, and 
South Bays for Wednesday and Thursday. At present, conditions are 
right on the edge of critical fire weather criteria, but the 
confidence isn't there at this point to pull the trigger on any 
warnings. The day shift will reevaluate the fire weather forecast 
for Wednesday and Thursday and in collaboration with neighboring 
offices, will be in a better position to determine the extent of 
necessary products. Regardless of whether any products are issued 
across the interior, elevated to near critical fire weather 
conditions are still forecast and care must be taken to avoid 
starting a fire that could spread rapidly. Remember, one less
spark, one less wildfire.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 9 10:30:02 PDT 2026