FXUS66 KMTR 281913
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1213 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

 - Above normal temperatures over the weekend

 - Cooler conditions return Monday with beneficial, light rain 
   Tuesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

The 12Z sounding observed an 850 millibar temperature of 14.15 
degrees Celsius which is above the 90th percentile (13.5 degrees 
Celsius) for the date and time. This warm air mass will result in 
above normal temperatures that will contend with daily high 
temperature records this weekend. Stratus that was advected via a 
southerly surge is beginning to pull back to the coast where it is 
expected to stay throughout the day. The shallow marine layer of 500 
feet will likely undergo further compression as southerly flow veers 
to become northerly, promoting dry northerly flow. Stratus and 
patchy fog is expected to return to coastal locations tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

A passing upper-level shortwave trough and its associated dying cold 
front will encroach from the northwest Monday. This will crack the 
storm door open. Unfortunately, we will be far removed from the 
parent system in the Northern Great Plains; thus, only cooler 
conditions and wind are expected in the absence of rainfall. A gale 
force low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will head towards 
the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. As it does so, it will pull in 
tropical moisture from the Northwestern Pacific Ocean that will 
overtop strong high pressure centered in the Northern Pacific Ocean. 
The strength of the aforementioned low will allow it to cut through 
the aforementioned high, renewing our chances for rainfall. The 
associated cold front will pass Wednesday into Thursday, bringing 
beneficial, light rainfall to the North Bay and locations along the 
bayshore and Pacific Coast. Interior higher terrain may get 
measurable rainfall with the help of orographic lift, otherwise the 
interior will remain dry. To put the month of March's precipitation 
into context we'll use San Francisco Downtown as an example. It has 
not rained there since March 2nd. If it rains on Tuesday, it'll tie 
1923 for the longest dry stretch in March. 1923 is the driest March 
on record with 0.03", 2026 is the second driest on record so far 
with 0.06". Surface high pressure will nose in from the Eastern 
Pacific Ocean on Friday, rebounding temperatures near to slightly 
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth resulted in 
stratus along the coast with KHAF reporting LIFR conditions since 
about 12Z. This also resulted in brief LIFR/IFR conditions around 
KSNS and KMRY around the same time. Expecting VFR conditions 
primarily throughout the day with an increase in onshore winds by 
this afternoon. Winds ease late this evening and into Sunday 
morning with a moderate confidence for sub-VFR conditions late 
this evening and early Sunday morning around the aforementioned 
TAF sites. Elsewhere, moderate to high confidence for VFR 
conditions to persist through the TAF period. The one exception is
KSTS where there is a low probability for LIFR/IFR to return 
early Sunday morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Breezy onshore winds increase this 
afternoon before easing late this evening/overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR throughout much of the day with an 
increase of onshore winds by this afternoon. Moderate confidence 
for LIFR/IFR ceilings to return late this evening at KMRY and 
early Sunday morning at KSNS. However, lower confidence in how 
long they will persist as the marine layer is forecast to compress
into Sunday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue with localized strong 
gusts and moderate seas across the northern outer water. Light 
rain is possible early to midweek as upper level troughing returns
with winds becoming more westerly to southerly. Strong to near 
gale force gusts are expected late Thursday into the weekend. Seas
build late Thursday into Friday with significant wave heights 
between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 717 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Here are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for
March 28th and March 29th.

Location          March 28th          March 29th

Santa Rosa        85 in 1923          86 in 2018
San Rafael        81 in 2018          85 in 2018
Kentfield         91 in 1923          84 in 1935
Napa              83 in 2015          83 in 2018, 1968
Richmond          81 in 1969          79 in 1968
Livermore         82 in 2015          85 in 2015
San Francisco     81 in 1986          81 in 2018
SFO Airport       77 in 2018          81 in 2018
Redwood City      81 in 2018          85 in 2018, 1968
Half Moon Bay     79 in 1968          77 in 2004
Oakland           79 in 2015          79 in 2003
San Jose          84 in 1923          82 in 2018
Salinas Airport   84 in 2004          86 in 2018

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Mar 28 12:30:02 PDT 2026