FXUS66 KMTR 060021
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
421 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(This evening through Friday night)

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend through the 
remainder of the week as high pressure builds in from the Eastern 
Pacific. As such, afternoon temperatures will be up to 2-8 deg F 
above seasonal averages today in the major population centers. High 
clouds will be streaming in from the northwest throughout the 
afternoon and evening hours, having little effect on temperatures. 

Not seeing much in the way of fog development tonight, as weak to 
moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain of the Bay 
Area and Central Coast. However, cannot rule out a few pockets of 
fog in the North Bay valleys early Friday morning and lingering 
until the sun rises before quickly mixing out. Once again, high 
clouds are forecast to stream in from the northwest on Friday 
morning and then clearing out by mid-to-late afternoon. As such, 
daytime high temperatures on Friday look to be a few degrees warmer 
than today. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Weak ridging or zonal flow will persist across the region through 
early next week, leading to slightly above normal temperatures. This 
will be both overnight minimums and afternoon maximums. A shallow 
marine layer, generally less than 1,000 feet, is forecast to return 
Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching frontal 
system set to move into northern California. Confidence in wet 
weather conditions have stayed the same if not lessened slightly 
heading into the middle of next week and beyond. Again, the ECMWF 
ensemble mean shows greater than 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday 
the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. While that is about normal for the 
interior month, it looks to be spread out in time. However, given 
the lack of confidence looking out this far in time, be sure to 
check back for the latest forecast information. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Currently VFR with high clouds streaming in from the north. Moderate 
to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the 
TAF period. Warmer and drier conditions with high clouds should help 
limit fog/stratus potential; however, there is a low to moderate (up 
to 40%) probability for radiational fog/stratus development. 

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate to high 
confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF 
period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to continue 
though the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus 
developing tonight into Friday morning. Winds out of the northwest 
will shift southwest starting around 02z before shifting south and 
southeast later tonight (between 07z and 11z). By the end of Friday 
morning winds should transition back to north and northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail through Friday and
weaken to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday and Monday.
Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend, though rough
seas across the northern outer waters north of Pigeon Point late
Sunday into Monday morning. Dry weather is forecast through early
next week, with rain chances arriving by mid to late week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly 
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed 
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring 
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, 
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM 
Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday
11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 
1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft 
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above 
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above 
normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions 
include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical 
tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes 
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will 
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with 
an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would 
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance 
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. 
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment/Kummel
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 5 16:30:03 PST 2026