FXUS66 KMTR 120731
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1231 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

 - Scattered light showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms 
   today will linger into early Monday

 - A gradual warming and drying trend returns through the
   remainder of extended forecast
 
 - Gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday and
   Thursday


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Today and tonight)

The center of the upper level low will continue to slowly move 
onshore through the overnight as a secondary trough on the backside 
of the low shifts south well offshore today. Scattered weak showers 
offshore will drift onshore overnight, followed by scattered light 
showers, primarily over the North Bay after sunrise this morning and 
over the coastal ranges. Coverage of light showers will begin to 
increase once again by late morning into the afternoon as an upper 
trough axis shifts east-southeast across our area. There is a slight 
chance of thunderstorms after sunrise especially from areas where 
upslope flow will provide extra lift near the coastal ranges and 
eastern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will be slightly 
cooler than today, mostly from the mid-50s to mid-60s. Shower 
activity should mostly taper off by sunset. Rain totals will be 
light through the day, with up to a 0.25" for low lying areas, and 
up to 0.75" at higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Monday morning will feature some lingering offshore showers that may 
drift into Monterey County with only a few hundredths of rain 
expected where it does rain. By Tuesday, low amplitude ridging will 
begin a pleasant gradual warming trend. A sharpening trough axis 
extending southwest from a developing system from the Pacific 
Northwest into the Great Basin will produce a 'back door slider' 
pattern for the second of the week. Gusty west winds at higher 
elevations on Wednesday will become northerly and the strongest 
gusts appear to not exceed 40 MPH attm. Thursday, gusty winds will 
become northerly behind the 'back door slider' trough axis, with the 
downsloping component of the winds not impacting temperatures behind 
the dry frontal boundary pushing south through our area Thursday 
afternoon. Another round of shortwave ridging Friday will 
temperatures jump around 5 degrees into the low/mid 70s inland and 
low to mid 60s along the coast, and more gradual warming through the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The main rain band has left the terminal regions, but with 
convective showers expected through Sunday and perhaps into Monday, 
overall confidence remains low to moderate, especially in regards to 
wind speeds where convective showers may greatly impact local 
conditions. Conditions are expected to be generally VFR-MVFR with 
gentle to moderate winds from the southeast to the southwest through 
the night, with southwest winds picking up through Sunday morning 
and afternoon. Scattered showers and chances for thunderstorms 
continue through Sunday, with a general decrease in coverage through 
the day. 

Vicinity of SFO... Low-end VFR to MVFR conditions with scattered 
showers through the TAF period. Low confidence in the wind forecast, 
where the best estimate has moderate southeast flow through the 
overnight hours before the winds turn southwesterly Sunday 
afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt. Winds then turn westerly and 
diminish on Sunday night.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR-MVFR conditions with scattered showers 
through the TAF period with broadly westerly winds overnight, with 
some LLWS concerns at SNS early Sunday morning as surface winds 
decouple from the flow aloft. Large scale southwest flow resumes 
Sunday morning with gusts to 15-20 kt in the afternoon before winds 
diminish Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The line of intense storms has moved onshore this evening, but
scattered showers and locally gusty winds continue through
Sunday. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh
northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to
become moderate through mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay-
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Apr 12 02:30:02 PDT 2026