FXUS66 KMTR 152314
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
414 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

 - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
   week with seasonable June temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive 
marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast 
as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should 
retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will 
build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning 
expected tomorrow morning. 

SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing 
Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing 
tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to 
increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen 
slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm 
tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a 
1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM 
output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the 
marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the 
profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures 
slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high 
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the 
inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas. 
HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor 
HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the 
southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions 
of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central 
Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice 
smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent 
breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. 

Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore 
areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine 
with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring 
us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night's high tide 
reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 
7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the 
record for the highest water level observed during the summer season 
(outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was 
previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high 
tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 
AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on 
Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on 
Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing 
to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with 
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the 
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to 
never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will 
begin it's weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures 
are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the 
end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into 
the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the 
low pressure system is currently expected to move through our 
region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will 
result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for 
temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high 
temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low 
80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore 
and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global
ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return 
to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for 
temperatures to warm back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus is concentrated at the immediate coast but there 
are signs that the inland intrusion has begun with some expansion 
observed around the Petaluma Gap and the southern Monterey Bay 
region. Generally breezy onshore flow conditions continue into the 
evening hours with the winds turning light overnight, as stratus 
expands into the North Bay valleys, the central SF Bay, and the 
Salinas Valley. There is a low confidence of stratus impacts near 
LVK for the early hours of Tuesday morning, with some high 
resolution models bringing stratus into the hills surrounding the 
terminal. Stratus will pare back to the immediate coast through 
Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon. 
Low to moderate confidence that HAF scatters out briefly on Tuesday 
afternoon

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze 
through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the 
evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on 
stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over 
the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the 
East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden 
Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. 
May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that 
forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west-
northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds 
to around 15 kt continue through the evening hours. IFR stratus will 
move into OAK around 03Z this evening, then move south towards SJC 
over the next several hours. Stratus will dissipate through the 
course of Tuesday morning, with breezy northwest winds resuming in 
the afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Monitoring the stratus flow lying just to 
the north of the terminals for potential early stratus impacts. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next several hours. 
Gentle onshore winds prevail at MRY through the evening while 
stronger northwest flow with gusts up to 25 kt persists at SNS. IFR 
stratus will return early this evening as winds turn light, clearing 
through Tuesday morning with the gentle to breezy northwest winds 
resuming in the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southerly breezes persist today transitioning to northerly this
afternoon into the night with a low south-southwesterly swell
across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to
southerly tomorrow afternoon for the southern outer waters. Fresh
to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters
tomorrow and Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist 
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern 
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for 
south and southwest facing beaches.  Hazardous beach conditions are 
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches 
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz 
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has 
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach 
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach 
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by 
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from 
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, 
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Malarkey

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 15 20:30:02 PDT 2026