FXUS66 KMTR 251113
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026

 - Scattered showers bringing drizzle/light rain today and
   tomorrow

 - Below normal temperatures this weekend before a warming trend
   kicks off early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026
(Today and tonight)

Stratus is making its way across the Bay Area with some potential 
for patchy fog to develop across portions of the North Bay Valleys 
and along the coast early this morning. Looking farther out to sea, 
a mix of mid and high level clouds associated with an incoming upper 
level low pressure system are drifting towards the coastline. Broad 
upper level troughing continues over the Western US with a weak 
upper level low moving inland over the Central Coast this morning. 
As the low moves inland, it will bring scattered showers to the 
marine environment and Bay Area/Central Coast. The initial surge of 
moisture looks more promising tonight than it did last night with 
PWATs between 0.6" to 0.8" across the Bay Area and Central Coast. 
Rain totals are still expected to be light, ranging from a trace to 
a few hundredths of an inch, but it may be a different story for the 
coastal mountain ranges. Orographic lift can generate locally higher 
precipitation totals across the Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay 
Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Totals are likely to be highest 
across the Santa Lucia Range where there is a higher moisture 
content over a longer period of time. The higher terrain of the 
Santa Lucia Range could see between 0.1-0.2" in the most likely 
scenario. Under the 90th percentile, a reasonable upper end amount 
should the showers overperform, the higher elevations could see up 
to 0.5" of precipitation. There is a non-zero chance for 
thunderstorms on Saturday with the current forecast showing a 3-5% 
chance during the afternoon/evening hours. Thunderstorm chances 
don't look too promising given a more stable environment and very 
low (<100 J/kg) surface CAPE across the region.

Outside of rain and thunderstorm chances, temperatures will be below 
normal this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 
mid 60s across the region Saturday and again Sunday. The higher 
elevations will be even cooler with some of the higher peaks 
lingering in the 40s to low 50s throughout the day. If you live in 
the higher elevations or the interior Central Coast, expect cold 
mornings Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures for these regions 
will be in the upper 30s to low 40s while the rest of the region 
stays in the low to mid 50s. No major wind concerns with this system 
given the more southerly orientation of the upper level and low 
level jets. Winds do strengthen during the afternoon/evening across 
the higher terrain and mountain gaps/passes but gusts will peak 
between 25 to 35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

Drizzle to light rain from scattered showers and below normal 
temperatures continue into Sunday before rain chances diminish 
heading into the afternoon. Similar to Saturday, there is a non-zero 
(5-6%) chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening but 
confidence in their development remains low. Heading into next week, 
we can expect a return of warmer and drier weather. The upper level 
trough will start to progress eastward and weak ridging will attempt 
to build in early to mid-week while a cut-off low moves into 
southern California. This will allow for a gradual warming trend 
through the first half of the week. Inland temperatures will warm 
into the upper 60s on Monday before returning to the low to mid 70s 
on Tuesday through Thursday. By late week, a more substantial 
warming trend is expected as ridging rebuilds over California.
Inland temperatures will creep back into the mid to upper 70s on 
Friday with a few pockets of low 80s possible across the Central 
Coast. Warmer temperatures continue into next weekend with CPC 
guidance maintaining above normal temperatures heading into early 
May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Generally MVFR-low end VFR conditions prevail underneath a wide 
layer of higher clouds as seen on the satellite imagery. Although
ceilings are expected to lift slightly through the post-sunrise 
hours, the high cloud cover should keep the region from scattering
out and ceilings are expected to persist through the TAF period. 
Light showers are expected to develop this afternoon and persist 
through the night, but these showers should remain non-convective 
and not result in major impacts to the flight conditions. Breezy 
southwesterly winds will develop in the afternoon, diminishing 
overnight.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-low end VFR conditions through the TAF 
period. Winds will pick up from the west-southwest this afternoon 
before diminishing overnight, with lower confidence in the wind 
pattern starting Sunday morning. Light showers will develop in the 
afternoon and persist through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-low end VFR conditions through the 
TAF period with southwesterly winds picking up in the afternoon. 
Chances for showery rain develop later this morning and persist 
through and after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Expect mainly moderate west to northwest breezes and moderate
seas through the early part of next week. Drizzle and light rain
remain in the forecast, favoring the southern waters and areas
along the coast this weekend. Strong northwest breezes and rough
seas return towards the middle of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Apr 25 08:30:03 PDT 2026