FXUS66 KMTR 080412
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
812 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the
   upcoming week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late week 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

The short term forecast remains on track. An approaching weak cold 
front will deepen low level clouds through the overnight hours. The 
increased moisture flux from these clouds will cool day time 
temperatures tomorrow slightly. Similar to yesterday, the more 
notable change is in the long term forecast. The window for 
widespread rain opens next Friday into the weekend.

Navarrete

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(This afternoon through Sunday)

Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s near 
the coast with gradual warming as you move inland away from the 
coast. Meanwhile, the interior valleys are forecast to reach into 
the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior Central Coast as 
sunny skies prevail. This is some 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle 
to moderate offshore flow will persist through the night in the 
higher elevations before diminishing by Sunday afternoon. All of 
this is ahead of a cold front that is forecast to push inland 
across Northern California by Sunday morning and potentially 
making its way into the North Bay by the afternoon and early 
evening hours. However, as the front weakens, no measurable 
rainfall is expected across the North Bay. Temperatures on Sunday 
will be similar to those this afternoon, yet the incoming front 
passing to our north may result in increased cloud cover across 
the Bay Area and Central Coast. 

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for 
safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement 
and Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Not much has changed in the extended forecast. High pressure will
rebuild in wake of the exiting trough across the Pacific 
Northwest from Tuesday through Thursday, maintaining afternoon 
temperatures up to 10-15 deg F above early-November climatological
norms by Wednesday. Mid-to-upper level troughing remains forecast
to deepen as it approaches the West Coast as early as Thursday. 
This is being depicted by ensemble models and clusters late next 
week and into the following weekend. However, their remains a 
great deal of uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system
and its available moisture source. For now, enjoy the warm 
weather that is forecast to persist through midweek, just be 
mindful of the coastal hazards! Also, check back for next week's 
rain chances and their impacts. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Currently VFR with stratus offshore. The loss of the offshore 
surface pressure gradient has brought the return of onshore flow 
leading to cooler and more humid conditions. Moderate to high 
confidence in sub-VFR conditions returning to all terminals tonight, 
likely a combination of advection and radiation fog/stratus.
Conditions will likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR and begin to 
develop between 08Z and 12Z with conditions improving by 16Z. 
Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Moderate 
confidence on a ceiling developing at the terminal tonight, it'll 
likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. If the marine layer remains 
compressed (less than 1,000 feet), then it won't be able to make it 
through the San Bruno Gap. Thus, it'll likely be a late arrival time 
(09Z or later) as it'll have to take the long way around the bay. 
Diurnal winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely see 
clouds below FL070 develop as soon as 08Z with conditions improving 
as soon as 16Z. There is a greater chance for ceilings at or below 
FL070 at OAK and SJC than there is at SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and 
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in MVFR 
ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. Limiting factor will 
likely be drainage flow as it will bring in drier air and keep 
stratus out over the Monterey Bay. Diurnal winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 810 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail, with bays
remaining more sheltered. Rough to very rough seas will create
hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner and outer
waters through Monday. Seas begin to subside Tuesday and winds
will back through the day Wednesday to become southerly.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and 
have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will 
remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, 
large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be 
possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed 
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring 
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline 
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, 
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced 
swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the 
ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but 
longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast 
late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 
11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 
ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft 
above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above 
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal 
(7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up 
to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and 
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later 
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, 
respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous 
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of 
sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 20:30:04 PST 2026