FXUS66 KMTR 221108
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

 - Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through
   Wednesday

 - Warming and drying trend kicks off Thursday with the return of
   above normal temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Today and tonight)

A storm force low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast 
and surface high pressure in the Intermountain West will continue to 
tighten the pressure gradient. As a result, strong southerly winds 
with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected along the Pacific Coast and 
in the higher terrain. The attendant cold front to the 
aforementioned low will be close enough to generate pre-frontal rain 
showers. No adverse impacts are expected from them and they are 
expected to remain confined to the North Bay with drizzle possible 
for locations to the south. Temperatures will rebound to near 
seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern 
California Coast will bring tropical moisture along with it on 
Monday. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 
500 kg/ms on Tuesday with PWAT values expected to break the daily 
record. Even though the moisture content is expected to be rich, the 
dynamics are expected to be poor. The reason is due to the pattern 
that we are in with ridging to our southeast and troughing to our 
northwest - this will force the low up and over us into the Pacific 
Northwest. This leads to high confidence that the North Bay will 
receive the highest rainfall accumulations. Southwest facing terrain 
will have locally higher totals with the help of orographic lift and 
a perpendicular moisture fetch from the tropics off to the 
southwest. Adjacent valleys will experience the rain shadow effect. 
Impacts wise, flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas 
will be possible, especially in the North Bay. Ponding and slick 
roadways will be likely. If rain rates get intense enough, shallow 
landslides will be possible, especially in the North Bay. IVT values 
will quickly decrease after peaking, with only light rainfall 
expected Wednesday morning with the cold frontal passage. A warming 
and drying trend commences on its heels with upper-level shortwave 
ridging building across Baja California, resulting in temperatures 
10 degrees above normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR throughout the region with some mid- to high level cloud cover. 
Isolated to scattered showers will intrude into the North Bay 
through the TAF period, with low to moderate confidence in an 
extension of shower coverage down the western side of the San Mateo 
Peninsula through the day. Southerly flow will increase in the 
afternoon and evening, but is not expected to be as strong as 
yesterday's winds with gusts of 15-20 kt. Some MVFR ceilings are 
possible in the North Bay valleys and the immediate coast tonight 
into Monday morning, with moderate confidence on the timing and 
extent.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the 
TAF period. Southeast flow will continue through the day, with winds 
remaining at a gentle breeze. Showers may develop this morning on 
the west side of the San Bruno gap but confidence in impacts to the 
terminal itself is very low. Overnight, winds will diminish with a 
low to moderate confidence of MVFR ceilings developing on Monday 
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with some mid- to high level clouds 
across the region and through the TAF period. Breezy drainage flow 
persists through the morning at SNS, with winds turning 
northwesterly in the afternoon hours before diminishing in the 
evening. Some MVFR ceilings are possible tonight, but low confidence 
in impacts at the terminals and have opted to take the ceilings 
out of the TAF. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

Southerly winds and seas will decrease through the day. Rain
chances continue across the northern waters today, then spread
farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas
increase Tuesday then begin to ease by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 22 08:30:04 PST 2026