FXUS66 KMTR 090450
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 320 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Chance for coastal drizzle this evening into early Tuesday

 - Warmer and dry weather expected Wednesday - Saturday

 - Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for interior locations on 
   Wednesday and Thursday

 - Elevated fire weather concerns for the interior North Bay and 
   the East Bay and Santa Clara Hills late Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The band of showers that currently extends from the Santa Cruz
Mountains over to the East Bay has been overperforming so far this
evening, with public reports of drizzle across the Bay Area,
centered mainly on favored locations in the foothills. As a
result, have added a chance for drizzle along the coastal and
higher elevation locations across the Bay Area into Santa Cruz
County through the night, but note that accumulations are still
very light with rain totals generally a few hundredths of an inch
outside the move favored locations. 

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 320 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

A disturbance will continue to track through the PacNW through 
tomorrow morning. So far, this has spread high clouds across the 
region with radar showing light returns over the North Bay. Looking 
at sounding data, profiles have moistened some, but favor a drier 
air mass. As the system progresses and a front approaches, we could 
see this interact with the marine layer later this evening and into 
Tuesday morning. This would result in coastal drizzle and perhaps 
even some light rain/coastal drizzle for the northwestern portion of 
Sonoma County. The front is expected to pass across the region 
Tuesday morning, with drier air working in behind it. Skies will 
begin will clear behind the front, which will kick off the warming 
trend for the week. Highs for Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 
80s for interior valley locations and for the interior mountains. 
Along the coast, temperatures will range from the upper 50s to low 
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 320 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The upper level pattern begins to change on Friday as high pressure 
builds over the Eastern Pacific, while troughing sets up over the 
west. This will lead to a stretch of warmer and drier weather 
through the rest of the forecast period. Some uncertainty remains in 
a few areas, such as where does the upper low go? The latest 
guidance continues to favor a inside slider type upper level trough, 
leading to offshore flow for our neck of the woods Wednesday through 
Thursday morning. The strongest winds look to occur over the 
interior North Bay region and along the East Bay and the Santa Clara 
Hills, where gusts up to 35-55mph are expected over favored ridges, 
gaps, and passes. 

On Thursday, ridging builds in ever so slightly leading to the 
warmest day of the week. Widespread moderate HeatRisk is expected, 
with temperatures rising in to the 90s for many interior valleys, 
with some areas even cracking 100. Along the coast, temperatures 
will be warm as well, ranging from the mid 60s along the immediate 
coast to to mid 80s inland. Warmer weather lasts into the weekend, 
as the ridge holds over the EPac; however, temperatures will falter 
a few degrees each day. There is a sign we could see the marine 
layer start to return Saturday or Sunday, but confidence is low on 
when that occurs. If there is no major synoptic change, temperatures 
could also trend warmer for Friday and Saturday. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR through the afternoon as high level clouds begin to move across 
the region as the low pressure system to our northwest moves 
onshore. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in at terminals beginning as 
early as 5pm PDT today and will be widespread by sunset. Moderate 
westerly winds (10+ kts) prevail through the afternoon and early 
evening with embedded gusts in excess of 20kts. Medium to high 
confidence that most terminals will develop IFR ceilings overnight, 
except for LVK and SJC where it will remain MVFR through Tuesday 
morning. Winds ease overnight and may become variable at times at 
some sites, but will predominantly come from the west unless 
otherwise stated in TAF. North Bay and coastal terminals have a 20-
30% chance of experiencing some drizzle (up to 0.01 inches) this 
evening through the overnight hours from the approaching upper-level 
trough, though confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR and strong gusts prevail through the day into 
the evening. MVFR ceilings will settle over the Bay around 5pm as 
westerly winds begin to ease. Ceilings will become borderline IFR-
MVFR around sunset time and eventually get pushed to IFR through the 
overnight hours. Conditions improve back to VFR by late Tuesday 
morning due to mixing. High confidence in forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon as westerly winds 
increase to moderate breezes (10-15kts). Winds diminish slightly 
early evening (~5pm PDT) with developing MVFR ceilings that 
eventually become IFR through the overnight hours. Expecting 
conditions to transition back to VFR by Tuesday morning. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Mid and low level clouds continue to move into the area from the 
northwest to the southeast. MVFR and IFR CIGs have built along 
the coast with the rest of the TAF sites filling into the night as
winds reduce. Drizzle and light rain linger overnight in the far 
northern portions of the North Bay, as well as along the coast, 
affecting visibilities. Cloud cover begins to erode in the mid 
morning with widespread VFR expected Tuesday afternoon with 
moderate to breezy winds. Drier air moving into the area will
prevent much in the way of cloud cover formation for Tuesday 
night, leading to continued VFR even as winds reduce that evening.


Vicinity of SFO...Moderate west winds and IFR CIGs last into the
late morning. CIGs erode into the the late morning with breezy to
gusty winds arriving into the afternoon as skies continue to 
clear. These winds reduce again into Tuesday night, but stay 
moderate through that night.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds are becoming light as IFR CIGs
build around the Monterey Bay. Cloud cover begins to lift and 
erode in the mid morning, with VFR expected by the late morning. 
Expect breezy west and northwest winds to arrive into Tuesday 
afternoon before becoming light again that night.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Breezy conditions linger in the inner waters south of Point Sur.
Expect winds to ease across the waters overnight, but
northwesterly winds and seas will begin to build again Tuesday
morning. This will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft
to develop across the waters. Gale force gusts are expected by
Tuesday night over the northern outer waters. Winds and seas begin
to ease again into Thursday, and stay light through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 545 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Hot temperatures, gusty north winds, and low humidities across the 
North Bay interior mountains will raise the fire weather threats 
late on Wednesday into Thursday, with a particular emphasis on the 
interior mountains of Napa County. Although the strongest winds will 
remain within the Sacramento Valley, gusts of 25 to 35 mph are 
expected to spread into Napa County, with stronger gusts of 40-50 
mph possible along the Vaca Mountains along the county's eastern 
edge. Meanwhile, daytime humidity retention will be very poor with 
relative humidity values as low as 10-15%, while overnight 
recoveries are likewise poor as RH values top out at 20-30%. Thus, 
fuels are expected to dry rapidly, leading to the elevated fire 
weather concerns. It's a little too early to put out fire weather 
products at this stage, but this will be re-evaluated today and 
Tuesday as the dry conditions approach. Elsewhere across the 
district, conditions remain hot and dry, but we're not expecting 
winds to be as strong as they are across the interior North Bay. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 8 22:30:02 PDT 2026