FXUS66 KMTR 150717
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1217 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before
   temperatures warm Friday into the weekend

 - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher
   elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning
 
 - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday
   into the beginning of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
(Today and tonight)

A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to 
maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the 
Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted 
in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the 
early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the 
North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated 
moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level 
onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this 
afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary 
will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough 
pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to 
yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover 
is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side 
across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills 
with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late 
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area 
after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher 
elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not 
expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar 
to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. 
Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once 
again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and 
surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading 
to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an 
excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude 
ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next 
trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus 
diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus 
confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still 
low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some 
light rain Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High clouds associated with a cold front over far northern 
California will start to spill over the Bay Area and Central Coast
tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will be another
round of marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface 
front moves through Wednesday night.

Vicinity of SFO...There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings 
through 18Z Wednesday before the low clouds start mixing out. If
ceilings form they will likely be transient and temporary through
the first 12 hours of the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the
southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early
Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for 
them to drop below 1,000 feet due to the deep, ragged marine
layer.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh
NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through
Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through
Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force
NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet
across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a
moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT 
     Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Apr 15 00:30:03 PDT 2026