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NWS Technical Weather Discussion


FXUS66 KMTR 162053
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
153 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Generally weak offshore flow is forecast to persist
through at least midweek with temperatures near or above seasonal
averages. Onshore winds increase slightly late in the week which
should help moisten conditions while daytime temperatures remain
mild. A storm system is then forecast to push inland to our north
early next week with cooling temperatures and potential for light
rain over northern California. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:52 PM PDT Tuesday...The upper level 
pattern over the region will change little through midweek as 
mid/upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends 
inland over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low remains 
over the Desert Southwest. This will keep light offshore winds 
across the interior and result in seasonably warm conditions each 
afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are likely overnight with 
seasonably cool temperatures in the lower elevations while mild 
temperatures persist in the hills/mountains with continued 
offshore winds. 

By late in the week, weak onshore flow will potentially develop 
as the upper level low slowly moves to the northeast and high 
pressure builds further inland across the West Coast. This may 
allow for a shallow marine layer to develop with the development 
of coastal stratus during the late night and early morning hours. 
However, confidence is low at this time and widespread cloud cover
is not currently expected through late week. This too may cool 
conditions a bit near the coast as offshore flow remains confined 
to the inland areas. This will likely lead to pleasant fall 
weather conditions over the region through the upcoming weekend.

The medium range models continue to suggest a possible pattern
shift early next week as an upper level trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest. This would likely at least result in a cooling
trend region-wide with rain chances increasing over northern
California late Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather conditions
look to linger into late next week as well with precipitation
dropping as far south as the North Bay. However, confidence
remains low on widespread rainfall actually developing over our
region late in the forecast period. Will need to monitor in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:47 AM PDT Tuesday...For 18z TAFs. Clear 
skies will prevail across area terminals today. Light winds will 
increase slightly and turn onshore this afternoon. Winds will 
diminish once again this evening becoming light and locally 
variable overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Light winds will increase out of the west to
around 10 kt this afternoon. Winds will diminish once again this 
evening becoming easterly overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Generally light winds.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:39 AM PDT Tuesday...Generally light to locally
moderate northwesterly winds will prevail across the coastal 
waters through the coming days. Mixed swell will continue with a 
long period southerly swell through mid week and a more moderate 
period northwest swell. A longer period northwest swell will 
arrive during the second half of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...None.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW/DP
FIRE WEATHER: MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Oct 16 14:30:02 PDT 2018

From the National Weather Service


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Revised: 29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT (Pacific)