FXUS66 KMTR 101125
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
425 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

 - Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

 - Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week
 
 - Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening 

 - Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1152 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

Much cooler air quickly flowed inland Friday with about equally 
weighted northerly ACV-SFO and onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradients 
supporting northwest winds. Current 24 hour temperature trends 
remain sharply lower by up to double digits Fahrenheit across 
higher elevations and inland. Surface temperatures across the 
highly varied terrain in our forecast area show only a few places 
left at highest elevation that are still relatively mild from the 
mid 60s to lower 70s. Due to a pattern shift with upper level 
troughing forecast to dominate our weather through the weekend, 
the lower level temperature inversion is already steadily weakening
and lifting. The marine layer depth continues to increase, currently
between ~ 1700 and 2500 feet. Cooling applied to the marine layer
with upsloping winds will produce light patchy drizzle from San 
Francisco southward to the Big Sur coastline, including the East 
Bay hills tonight and Saturday morning.

Cold air advection continues through Saturday greatly weakening
the lower level temperature inversion that's capping the marine 
stratus. Expect plentiful vertical mixing with drier air and
daytime surface heating to mix out the stratus by early afternoon.

Highs and lows Saturday and Sunday will be below to much below 
normal for the time of year. Highs in the 60s/70s, warmest inland.
Lows in the 40s/30s, coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 
along the immediate coastline and bays.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1152 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

500 mb troughing will prevail with mainly drier air flowing 
southward across our forecast area early to mid next week. There 
may be a little light measurable shower activity in the southernmost
forecast area later Sunday and Monday. However, recent NBM has 
trended drier to less than 0.10" liquid precipitation. 500 mb 
ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late 
next week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Primarily a mix of MVFR and VFR with a marine layer at ~2500ft 
from the 12z KOAK balloon. Drier air associated with a cold front
currently pushing south through our area can be seen gradually 
eroding stratus both onshore and offshore early this Saturday 
morning. Current condition's should only improve from this point 
until clearing leads to VFR by mid-morning for the North Bay and 
Bay Area terminals, late morning for Monterey Bay sites.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period however MVFR cigs will persist in vicinity of terminals
through mid-morning with gusty winds this afternoon and tonight in
the wake of the cold front pushing through our area currently.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings will persist until late 
morning with VFR expected throughout the remainder of the TAF 
period. Breezy onshore flow will develop behind the advancing cold
front later today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 412 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Dangerous conditions remain in place across our coastal waters
this weekend. Strong northwest winds have begun to spread south
as a cold front moves through. Expect frequent gale force gusts
in exposed waters along with rough to very rough seas building in
response to the strong winds. On top of the hazardous winds and
rough wind waves, two sets of swell haver arrived, from both the
south and west. The significant wave height will reach 16 feet in
the northern outer waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant 
Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, 
bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. 
Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central 
North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 
feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as 
water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, 
especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and 
other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the 
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out 
of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and 
never turn your back on the ocean!

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
     530.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Sunday 
     for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Sunday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Oct 10 08:30:02 PDT 2026