FXUS66 KMTR 291705
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
   persist into the middle of the week

 - Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
   work week

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
   Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 
(Tonight through Tuesday)

The upper level pattern over the are continues to predominately 
be dominated by troughing across the western United States. This 
will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through the work week. 
As the main trough system shifts to the east, a short wave trough 
will develop along the western periphery of the main trough 
following the west coast. The short wave trough will develop into 
a cut off low by Monday afternoon. Daytime highs today should be 
largely similar to those seen yesterday, with perhaps a few 
degrees of warming in the interior North and East Bays and a few 
degrees of cooling across the warmest spots of southern Monterey 
County.

The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night 
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and 
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the 
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will 
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical 
tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to 
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along 
the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing 
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 
Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never
turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Troughing will continue through the work week transitioning to 
zonal flow for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual warming 
trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the beginning
of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement towards a 
ridge building up across the Western United States, with the 
interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern 
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for 
our region, still to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with clearing 
making its way down the Pacific Coast. Moderate to high confidence 
in IFR-MVFR ceilings developing at bayshore and coastal terminals 
respectively tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow. Winds will 
back through the morning to become westerly this afternoon. Moderate 
confidence on a ceiling returning to the terminal tonight, likely on 
the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Reasonable best case scenario is a donut
hole develops over the terminal with stratus remaining confined on
the north and west sides.

SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has low 
probabilities (<30%) for developing a ceiling below FL045. 
Reasonable best case scenario is clouds remain confined to the 
terminal and northward. 

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Currently VFR with southerly flow at both 
terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing at 
SJC. Moderate confidence in an MVFR ceiling developing at OAK 
tonight via a stratus feed through the Golden Gate Gap.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at 
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. An otter eddy in the 
Monterey Bay will add some complexity and uncertainty in clearing 
times this morning; however, clearing is expected to continue along 
the Pacific Coast with high confidence in VFR by the afternoon. 
High confidence in IFR ceilings returning to both terminals 
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Strong to very strong northerly breezes will continue through
Friday  for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point
Reyes,  creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent
gale force  gusts are expected across the northern outer waters
and along the  Point Reyes coastal jet region. Moderate to fresh
northerly breezes  will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough
seas will continue  through Wednesday before abating to become
moderate to rough  Thursday into Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell 
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves 
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically 
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of 
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will 
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially 
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being 
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the 
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if 
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 29 10:30:03 PDT 2026