FXUS66 KMTR 212117
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
117 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

 - Another chilly night for the interior Central Coast and East Bay, 
   low temperatures in the 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures fall into 
   the 40s.

 - Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying to 
   sag into the North Bay.

 - Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind late Monday
   through Wednesday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon is quite spectacular as 
you can see the massive low pressure system sitting over the Eastern 
Pacific. Closer to home, here in CA, a disturbance is pushing over 
northern California. Any sight of rain is well to our north right 
now, but high clouds are slowly starting to infiltrate the area. The 
most likely area to see any accumulating rain today will be the 
northern part of Sonoma County, but it's capped at 20-40% chance of 
happening. Tomorrow chances increase to 20-80% for the North Bay, 
with the highest percentages  being found over, you guessed it, 
northwestern Sonoma County with chances decreasing as you move 
southeastward. Elsewhere, dry conditions should prevail.

In terms of temperatures tonight, lows improve for much of the Bay 
Area tonight thanks to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures will 
fall into the 40s for most areas, near 50 along the coast, and the 
upper 30s for areas that remain clear. For the Central Coast, Santa 
Cruz and the Monterey Bay area are  similar. Colder conditions will 
be found across the interior portions, where low temperatures manly 
span the 30s. Opted to hold off on a Cold Weather Advisory for the 
Southern Salinas Valley and adjacent mountain zones given the 
coverage and duration of temperatures of colder temperatures. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

The long term forecast remains interesting as an upper level ridge 
will build over the Desert Southwest and Baja California area. This 
should keep the low pressure either west or northwest of the region, 
which continues to mess with our rain chances this upcoming week. 
For now, rainy conditions look to occur from late Monday through 
Wednesday, favoring the Bay Area as a surface low pulls in moisture 
from the southwest. The highest amounts of rain should occur in the 
North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula/Santa Cruz mountains, with 
amounts generally decreasing as you move inland or south. Once the 
rain tappers off on Wednesday, a warming and drying trend is on tap 
for the end of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

Currently expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF 
period. Southerly winds will increase late this morning and into 
the afternoon, strongest near the coast and typically windy spots 
across the region with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Winds then ease late 
in the evening and into Sunday morning. Have VCSH toward the end 
of the TAF period across the North Bay and Bay Area Terminals as a
system brushes the region, yet remains well to the north. There 
is a low to moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings across the North
Bay and the Monterey Bay Terminals early Sunday morning. There is
also low confidence for LLWS tomorrow morning, yet not high 
enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will continue to 
stream across the region through much of the TAF period. Southerly
winds will increase by late morning or early afternoon with gusts
up to 25 kt. Winds then ease late this evening and into Sunday 
morning. VCSH remains in the forecast as light rain showers are 
forecast by around 16Z Sunday and continue through early Sunday 
afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will stream 
in from the north later today and linger through the rest of the TAF 
period. Southerly winds will increase a bit this afternoon and 
evening before easing late this evening, especially at KMRY while 
southerly flow will remain moderate at KSNS. There is low confidence 
for MVFR ceilings at both terminals early Sunday morning, yet have 
SCT025 to account for the uncertainty.  

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

Expect fresh to moderate southerly breezes this morning with gale
force gusts developing by the afternoon, especially across the 
northern waters. Rough to very rough seas persist starting tonight
into the beginning of next week. Rain chances increase across 
northern waters tonight, becoming more widespread across the 
northern waters by Saturday night, then spread farther south by 
Monday. Winds and seas begin to ease by the middle of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay 
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 
     nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 21 14:30:03 PST 2026