FXUS66 KMTR 231830
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1130 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - Breezy onshore winds return late this week and into the 
   weekend

 - Temperatures near seasonal averages throughout early next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The stratus pattern was more typical for this time of year and was 
able to spread into the inland valleys overnight. However, dry air 
aloft was able to disrupt the cloud deck across the Monterey Bay 
region. We also had fog in places like Russian River Valley, Santa 
Rosa, Half Moon Bay, Marina, and Monterey at times this morning. 
However, conditions continue to improve across much of the region as 
low clouds retreat back to the coast. No significant updates needed 
to the ongoing forecast at this time. More on the Beach Hazards 
Statement with the afternoon update. 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026
(Today and tonight)

Patchy coastal low clouds are trying to redevelop early this 
morning. Higher dewpoint air lingers, however areal low cloud 
coverage will depend on the total amount of nocturnal radiative 
cooling (improved since it's drier aloft) and near surface cool 
air advection through morning. Putting the brakes on low cloud 
development so far is the recent uptick in sea surface temperatures
with the loss of cold water upwelling due to the recent northward
moving remnant low center passing by to our west. The buoys show 
sea surface temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s, about 3F to 8F 
above July normals. However, northwest winds (and upwelling) will
resume in our coastal waters today and tonight.

High pressure aloft will continue to bring stable weather. Daytime
highs today will be in the 60s/70s coastside to the 70s/80 bayside
and 80s/90s inland including 90s/100 over the southern interior. 
Lows in the 50s to lower 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026 
(Friday through Wednesday)

A gradual turn toward less humid conditions with a slight warming
trend inland develops through the weekend into next week. Onshore
breezes will prevail with night and morning coastal low clouds and
fog, possibly a few patches of light drizzle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.AVIATION...

VFR everywhere except at HAF, SFO, and OAK where borderline MVFR-IFR 
ceilings are lingering. HAF will remain mainly IFR through the TAF 
period with low confidence on brief VFR-MVFR conditions around 23-
01Z Friday. Dry air in the upper levels will continue to compress 
the marine layer as it returns again tonight with a depth around 
1000 feet. Given the shallow marine layer, SJC and LVK will be 
spared from impactful stratus this TAF period. Moderate onshore 
winds increase through the day and diminish shortly after sunset. 
Medium confidence on stratus arrival and ceilings tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR but will soon become VFR through the 
afternoon. High confidence on moderate to fresh westerly breezes 
(around 15-20 kt) dominating the TAF period. Medium confidence on 
timing of stratus as it may arrive sometime between 08-11Z and 
persist until 17-18Z Friday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. MVFR stratus will arrive and 
scatter out after SFO does.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR as onshore winds increase through the 
afternoon up to 15 kt. IFR ceilings impact MRY first around 08Z 
before filling in over SNS. High confidence for ceilings to be 
borderline IFR-LIFR at MRY and high-end IFR at SNS. Both should 
scatter out around 17-18Z Friday. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 908 AM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist with embedded strong gusts,
allowing wave heights to remain moderate through the weekend. A
long period southerly swell from Hurricane Fausto also continues
to build this weekend and persists into early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Tuesday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT 
     Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jul 23 12:30:03 PDT 2026