FXUS66 KMTR 110032
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
532 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 

 - Hot and dry through Saturday with a moderate risk of heat-
   related illnesses for interior locations Thursday and Friday.

 - Critical fire weather threat for the interior North Bay and the
   East Bay Mountains late tonight into Thursday morning with
   critically dry conditions persisting into Thursday afternoon.

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
   south and southwest facing beaches through the weekend.

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
   area this weekend.
   

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 
(This afternoon through Thursday)

Our well advertised warm up is in full swing today with afternoon
temperatures already climbing into the 70s and 90s. With clear
skies and a dry airmass interior valley regions will experience
mid to upper 90 degree heat this afternoon. 

Tonight, more impactful weather is anticipated to take shape as a
diffuse trough swings through Big Sky Country into the northern
high plains. In the wake of this feature, 3 hour 5-7 mb surface 
pressure rises across the Great Basin will tighten the low level
height/surface pressure gradient between building high pressure
and the coastal trough. Subsequently the wind field is anticipated
to respond with the latest NWP remaining consistent with a 30-40
knot 925mb jet extending from the northern Sac Valley down into
the delta. Lower elevations/valleys will likely see the planetary
boundary layer decouple from the free atmosphere and as a result,
I'm not anticipating overly gusty winds in the population centers.

For locations at elevation (above 1500 feet), boundary layer 
decoupling is unlikely and this will be two fold. Firstly, 
temperatures will remain elevated and overnight humidity recovery 
will be poor (RH values likely not climbing above 40%). Secondly, 
the aforementioned momentum at 925mb will be transfered down to 
the surface (again at elevations at or above 1500 feet). This 
should translate to frequent gusts above 30 to 35 mph. Cross-
sections from the 2km SJSU/PG&E WRF advertise tightly packed 
isentropes or lines of potential temperature downwind of higher 
terrain features such as Mt. Saint Helena. This implies a 
potential for mountain wave type activity as well as a greater 
threat for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Fuels intelligence 
reveals that grasses (more of the 1 and 10 hour or fine fuels) are
largely cured and with the combination of the forecast winds and 
RH, a critical fire weather threat is anticipated to materialize. 
A Red Flag Warning is in effect to capture the most likely time 
period for these conditions described above from 11pm tonight into
9am Thursday across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay
Hills. Individuals should obey any fire restrictions/burn bans, 
extinguish any camp fires, secure tow chains trailers/RVs, and 
NEVER toss cigarette butts out the window. Remember, one less 
spark, one less wildfire. While winds will abate after sunrise 
Thursday, RH will remain critically dry, especially interior 
portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. While winds remain 
below threshold, it's important for people to remain vigilant and 
avoid activities that could spark a wildfire. 

The burst of offshore winds will keep the marine layer at bay (no
pun intended) and result in a dry airmass. Both will promote a 
sharp diurnal temperature curve. With sunny skies and virtually 
non-existent onshore flow (except maybe at the immediate 
coastline). Thursday high temperatures are anticipated to soar 15 
to 25 degrees above normal with widespread mid to upper 90s. Some 
locations may even exceed the century mark, especially across far 
interior valleys of the North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay. A
handful of our climate sites may also flirt with or exceed daily
record highs for June 11th. With the probability of moderate 
HeatRisk at or above 95% for these locales, a Heat Advisory is in 
effect for Thursday (and parts of the area on Friday). Heat of 
this caliber affects most individuals sensitive to heat, 
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate 
hydration. Some impacts can be expected to health systems and in 
heat-sensitive industries. Be sure to hydrate with plenty of water
and check on those vulnerable groups that are sensitive to heat 
(elderly and young). Never leave pets or children unattended in 
vehicles! Do your best to limit strenuous outdoor activity during 
peak heating. If headed to the coast, be sure to be mindful of the
increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents! More details 
in the beaches section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 
(Thursday night through next
Tuesday)

Thursday Night - Friday morning lows may cool some, with the
exception being across some of the higher terrain where the
thermal belt may remain somewhat active. Offshore winds are not
expected to be quite as stout, however. 

Uncertainty in the MaxT forecast persist on Friday. With the upper
trough responsible for driving the offshore winds moving farther
east, the low level height/pressure gradient should ease. In fact,
a very diffuse front/trough will approach from the north and try
to encourage some onshore flow. The diffuse nature of this
boundary, however, means that the wind field may not be overly
impressive. While some high-resoultion NWP does indicate onshore
flow, magnitudes are on the lighter side with speeds of 5 to 10
knots, though terrain enhancements may result in some accelerations
across the coastal range. I would anticipate a more structured
sea-breeze push on Friday afternoon and areas across the North Bay
may experience a very weak frontal passage. Farther east and
south, however, very little in the way of onshore flow may
transpire. Probability of Moderate HeatRisk remains at or above
80% for interior sections of the East Bay and South Bay and as a
result, we've extended the Heat Advisory for an additional day
(Friday here). I wouldn't discount the need for at least continued
heat messaging into the weekend, however, more diurnal
offshore/onshore flow is anticipated which may give more areas
relief from the heat. Afternoon conditions will likely remain very
pleasant and as noted above, be mindful if headed to the beach as
the sneaker wave threat will continue. In addition, higher than
normal high tides (1 to 1.5 feet above normal) are advertised
through June 15th. As a result, extension of the Coastal Flood
Advisory is probable in subsequent shifts. 

Morning fog/drizzle may need to be added as we get a little 
closer to the weekend. Ridging is expected across the Pacific 
Northwest into British Columbia through next week. There's some 
degree of broad troughing that is advertised in the ensemble 
means. Given the orientation of this upper trough (positively 
titled), we cannot discount a few more burst of offshore winds. 
Deterministic NBM guidance does appear to support this with a 
warming trend advertised for next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR through the TAF period with the exception of HAF which will see 
reductions in visibilities from haze. Moderate to breezy surface 
winds reduce into the evening and become light across overnight. 
Winds aloft over the North Bay, East Bay, and the SF Bay terminals 
will remain stronger and northerly, causing concerns for LLWS. Winds 
aloft look to weaken into the mid morning, reducing wind shear 
concerns. Winds will stay lighter through the rest of the morning, 
but become moderate to breezy for Thursday afternoon. Wind 
directions will not be as uniform across the area for Thursday, with 
much of the wind directions caused by localized effects.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds reduce into the 
night with some LLWS expected in the late night as winds around 
2000ft AGL will be northerly and around 35 kts through the mid 
morning before reducing. Winds will be lighter and variable for the 
rest of the morning and into the afternoon before more moderate 
northwest winds build. These winds will last into the night before 
becoming light and variable again.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, but with weaker winds aloft.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to 
reduce into the evening and become light into the night. In the late 
night and through the rest of the morning, winds look to be mostly 
variable. Expect west to northwest winds to build by the late 
morning and into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 531 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong to near gale force NW winds will gradually decrease to a
moderate NW breeze by Friday morning, and shift to a gentle
southerly breeze this weekend. Rough seas will steadily diminish
through early next week as the winds ease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 

Increasing northerly 20 foot winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
45 mph are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning. With
energy release components trending above the 85th percentile and
overnight humidity recovery anticipated to be below 40 percent,
a critical fire weather threat is expected to unfold. The threat
will be greatest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East
Bay Hills. Pending ignitions, extreme fire behavior and/or spread
is likely during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Winds
will subside after 9am Thursday, however, afternoon humidity 
values in the teens to near single digits are forecast across 
interior regions. Minimal shading will help to cure fuels further
in the afternoon and while wind speeds are largely anticipated to
fall below 10 mph, fire spread will remain a possibility, 
particularly in areas with the favorable alignment of weather, 
fuels, and topography. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 

Long period swell will continue, likely during the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San
Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before
you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther 
than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and 
resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are 
strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim
near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away 
from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure 
near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1235 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The following are the record highs for June 11th.

Station          Record Highs June 11th

Santa Rosa          100 in 2019
San Rafael           97 in 1985
Napa                102 in 2019
Livermore           105 in 1985
San Francisco        92 in 2019, 1877
SFO Airport          98 in 2019
Redwood City        102 in 2019
Oakland Museum       99 in 2019
Half Moon Bay        85 in 2019
San Jose             99 in 2019
Monterey Airport     92 in 2019
Salinas Airport     104 in 2019 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM PDT Friday for 
     CAZ006-508.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506-
     508.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday 
     for CAZ504-515.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ505-509-
     529.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ506.

     Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510-
     513>515.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Flynn

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 10 20:30:03 PDT 2026