FXUS66 KMTR 071131
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
331 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 328 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

 - Warmer today and tomorrow with highs 10 to 15 degrees above
   average

 - Slight cooling into the work week, but another warming trend in
   the mid week

 - Dry conditions through the extended forecast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 328 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
(Today and tonight)

Aside from a few breezy spots in the higher elevations in the North 
and East Bay, winds have mostly subsided. The upper level pattern 
has flexed into a very tilted ridge and has reduced the pressure 
gradient, leading to much weaker winds, but still offshore flow.

This reduction in winds with continued offshore will cause 
temperatures to climb well into the 70s for all but the immediate 
coast which will stick to the 60s, and a few interior valleys 
breaking into the 80s. Today looks to be the warmest day of the 
forecast for Sonoma Co and San Francisco, while Sunday looks to be 
warmer for the rest of the Bay Area and down the Central coast.

Temperatures will be slow to cool into the night, and overnight lows 
look to be some of the warmest in the forecast. Most areas will 
stick to the upper 40s and lower 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 328 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
(Sunday through Friday)


As mentioned above, Sonoma Co and San Francisco see slightly cooler 
conditions for Sunday from a modest return of onshore flow in those 
areas. The rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast will continue to 
see the warming trend with most areas breaking into the mid to upper 
70s and more of the interior valleys and higher elevations breaking 
into the 80s. This will place high temps just below 15 degrees below 
average for most of the region.

Relief from the warmth comes in the form of the upper level pattern 
continuing to shift. The ridge pushes south and restores zonal flow 
to Northern California. This won't be particularly strong, but a 
zonal pattern means onshore flow. Along with the change in flow, 
pressure will reduce, allowing for a return of a shallow marine 
layer into Monday morning, and chances for fog. Monday afternoon 
will see highs drop roughly 5 degrees for much of the area, with 
continued cooling expected for Tuesday. Humidities will also see 
some improvements for the early work week, easing fire weather 
concerns.

The cooling trend be short lived as the zonal flow pattern turns 
back into a gentile, but much larger, ridge pattern into the mid 
week. Since the gradient of the ridge will be gentle, temperatures 
will build at a slow pace, but the fact that this will be a much 
larger ridge means it'll be much slower for it to exit. The second 
half of the work week will be a slow warming and drying trend with 
weakening winds for all but the outer marine zones.

Again the size of the ridge will make it difficult to push out of the 
region. This will be coupled with the fact that it will be sitting 
at a south enough latitude to avoid the more active portion of the 
jet stream in the Pacific Northwest. This means this ridge could 
last well into the mid month, causing warm temperatures and limited 
cloud cover. Cold fronts and low pressures will push plenty of rain 
through Washington and Oregon, while this ridge prevents those 
chances from making it this far south. Some of the very long term 
models hint at the ridge breaking in the second half of the month, 
but it could last longer than that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR through the 
TAF period. Northerly winds, gusty at times, are expected for Bay 
Area terminals through the afternoon with diurnal winds returning 
tonight. LLWS was included in the Bay Area TAFs through this morning 
to capture northerly/northeasterly winds around 35 knots at FL020. 

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence 
in VFR through the TAF period. Northerly/northeasterly winds will 
prevail through the afternoon, diurnal winds will return tonight. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with 
drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. 
Diurnal winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will linger in the northern outer
waters due to strong northerly breezes. Moderate seas in the
inner waters and rough seas in the outer waters will prevail over
the weekend. Widespread hazardous conditions return Monday as
northerly breezes increase to become strong to near gale and seas
build to become rough to very rough.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Mar 7 06:30:03 PST 2026