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NWS Technical
Weather Discussion |
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FXUS66 KMTR 121750
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
...New AVIATION, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
- Rain showers taper off by late morning with dry weather
through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early
Saturday morning
- Widespread rain and gustier winds return Saturday and persist
into next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Overall the short term forecast is in good shape, with no changes
needed this morning. We will examine MinT's tonight as there's a
chance for optimal radiational cooling which could allow
temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 30s in spots. In
addition, pockets of fog, potentially dense, may develop tonight
into Friday morning. Otherwise, we'll be examining the latest NWP
for what should be a more active stretch of weather later this
weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Today and tonight)
Offshore, a low pressure system continues to weaken and move
southwards along the California coast. Precipitation associated with
this system has largely ended over but KMUX shows a few scattered
showers lingering over the region. Shower activity will continue to
diminish through the remainder of the morning with largely dry
conditions expected for the remainder of the day. As the low
departs, ridging briefing rebuilds Thursday and Friday which will
give us a brief break in the rain before it returns this weekend
into next week. Temperatures warm, slightly, into the low to mid 60s
across the lower elevations on Thursday while the higher elevations
stay comparatively cooler in the 40s to 50s. Chillier overnight lows
return Thursday night into Friday with lows dropping into the low
40s across the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast. Interior Monterey
and San Benito Counties will get even cooler with lows dropping into
the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far southeastern Monterey County
(Bradley and Fort Hunter Liggett) will reach the low to mid 30s
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
Dry weather continues into Friday with seasonally warm temperatures
in the low to mid 60s. For anyone worrying about a prolonged dry
spell, this does not look to be the case. The upper level ridge
expected Thurs/Fri will be fairly progressive and is expected to
exit eastwards Saturday as a deep upper level trough approaches the
West Coast. This upper level trough and associated surface low will
then linger offshore of the West Coast Mon/Tues before moving inland
by mid-week. This will kickstart the return of rain Saturday
afternoon/evening and will keep us rainy through at least mid next
week. The question then becomes, well how much rain are we
expecting? The answer is a little bit complicated as models have a
large spread in forecast precipitation totals. The NBM alone shows
quite the spread between the 90th percentile and the 10th
percentile. For example, the 24 hour precipitation totals from 4AM
Sunday to 4AM Monday under the 90th percentile show widespread 1.5-
3" with up to 5-6" in the coastal mountain ranges. Comparatively,
the NBM 10th percentile is much more limited with totals ranging
from 0.5-1.5". This hopefully provides some context for why QPF
totals are uncertain and may change as we get closer to this system
arriving. The initial precipitation forecast forecast shows a
widespread 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals between 4-6"
across the coastal mountain ranges from Saturday to Wednesday. This
matches fairly well with the NBM 50th percentile and the NBM mean.
All that to say, the upcoming week is likely going to be a wet one
and the precipitation forecast will continue to be refined as we get
closer in time to it. We can expect flooding concerns to increase
this weekend into next week as we see successive days of
accumulating rain. Soils are on the drier end now but will saturate
quickly as this event begins.
Other concerns for the upcoming week include the potential for
gustier winds Sunday into next week. We can expect gusts between 30
to 40 mph on Sunday and potentially again next Tues/Wed. Currently
winds are below Wind Advisory criteria but can't fully rule out that
one will be needed. There is a low chance (< 20%) for embedded
thunderstorms starting Saturday as we see multiple rounds of rain
move through the region. High temperatures will be seasonally cool
in the upper 40s to 50s across the region for much of the upcoming
week. Morning low temperatures generally stay in the 40s but we can
expect cold mornings in the upper 30s to low 40s to return mid to
late next week as a colder air mass moves in.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
VFR conditions persist across much of the region this morning with
the exception of KLVK where stratus and patchy fog developed within
the past few hours. Expecting these conditions to return to VFR by
late morning with a slight increase in onshore winds this afternoon
and evening. Winds ease into the night and early Friday morning
before onshore winds return and increase by Friday afternoon. There
is moderate confidence for sub-IFR conditions at KLVK and KSTS
Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR
ceilings at the Bay Area terminals early Friday morning between 12Z-
18Z. Low to moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay
terminals early Friday morning. Ceilings and/or visibilities are
likely to improve after 18Z Friday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by this
afternoon before easing late in the night. Moderate confidence for
IFR/MVFR ceilings early Friday morning between 12Z-18Z. Onshore
winds increase once again by Friday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by
the afternoon before easing after sunset. Low to moderate confidence
for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay terminals early Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Winds will generally relax throughout the remainder of the
morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this
evening and continuing into Friday. Moderate to rough seas are
forecast Friday into the weekend, with 14 to 18 second period
northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to
hazardous boating and near-shore conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches,
excluding the northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and
continue through early Saturday morning. A moderate to long period
swell will arrive late this evening and will result in an
increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in
addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to
visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back
on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Friday
night for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 12 10:30:03 PST 2026
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From the National Weather
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reserved Boulder-Creek.com. |
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Revised:
29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT
(Pacific) |
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