FXUS66 KMTR 132353
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
353 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

 - Rain and wind to impact the region through this evening

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through high tide 
today

 - Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions 
   Saturday

 - Periods of rain continue through next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)

A cold front is currently moving through the Bay Area and north 
Central Coast producing light to moderate, and at times brief heavy 
downpours. There remain a slight chance (15% or less) of 
thunderstorms across the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and the San 
Francisco Bay Area through early afternoon. However, there haven't 
been any reports or indications of lightning so far. We have seen 
wind gusts up to around 55-65 mph, but those have been mostly in the 
peaks across the region and up to 55 mph along the coast. Still 
enough to result in downed trees and branches leading to isolated 
power outages. Also, have had a few reports of nuisance flooding in 
the Santa Cruz Mountains and elsewhere across the region. Not 
expecting much more than typically poor drainage areas and minor 
roadway flooding across he region. The front will clear the North 
Bay soon, the Bay Area by around 3 PM, and the Central Coast by 6 
PM. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting post frontal rain 
showers to persist this evening and into early Saturday morning.  

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to be cooler than the previous 
nights. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s in the 
North Bay and southern Salinas Valley with mid 40s to lower 50s 
elsewhere. The coldest wind sheltered valleys potentially will be as 
cold as the upper 30s Saturday morning. 

Saturday, we are expecting mostly dry conditions across the region 
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, temperatures will 
struggle to warm to the mid 60s in the lower elevations while the 
peaks top out in the upper 40s to 50s. 

Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more 
information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and 
Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)

A second cold front is forecast to move through the region on 
Sunday, first across the North Bay and then through the remainder of 
the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening hours. 
Currently, rainfall totals are forecast to be similar to today's 
frontal passage. In wake of that front, Tuesday morning's minimum 
temperatures are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, 
southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere. Will need to monitor for 
cold weather products. 

From previous forecaster: "Another lull in the rainfall comes later 
Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region 
later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too 
early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third 
system will bring.

As we go through the week, the main point to watch will be soil 
saturation across the region. The initial rounds of rain will be 
generally beneficial, reducing our fire weather threat and 
recharging the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada. Flooding concerns 
will be minimal with nuisance flooding possible across urban areas 
and small streams. Outside of these areas, rainwater is absorbed 
into the ground, which at this time, remains rather dry. As the rain 
continues to arrive, local soils saturate and are no longer able to 
hold as much additional rainfall, thus diverting excess water onto 
the surface and streams and rivers. Wet soils will also increase the 
chance for shallow landslides across the Bay Area, leading to 
further damage to homes and properties. Beyond the seven-day 
outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall 
totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will 
need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the 
possibility for landslides through the next week."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to fizzle out and become 
more widespread VFR as the cold frontal passage exits our forecast 
area. There is moderate to high confidence of ceilings scattering 
out tonight once the boundary passes. Rain is expected to become 
more showery this evening before decreasing completely overnight. 
Winds will continue to decrease as we head into the evening and 
overnight hours.

Vicinity of SFO...There is high confidence of VFR conditions continuing into 
Saturday afternoon as the last part of the cold frontal boundary has 
passed, with isolated areas of MVFR possible. South-southwest winds 
are going to continue to decrease and ceilings will continue to 
scatter out overnight into Saturday morning. Scattered showers are 
likely this evening before diminishing completely after midnight 
tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The main rain band has exited the Central
Coast with scattered showers to continue through the remainder of
the evening. Shower activity will diminish overnight before fully
dissipating Saturday morning. Expect winds to continue decreasing
now that cold frontal passage has occurred. Winds become lightly
offshore to variable at times overnight. Expect ceiling heights
to increase overnight with VFR conditions returning by Saturday
morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

A potent cold front will continue to move through the coastal
waters through this evening. The passing front will bring
dangerous conditions to the waters south of Pigeon Point due to
gale force winds. Behind the front and north of Pigeon Point
moderate to fresh northerly breezes will develop through this
evening. Rough to very rough seas will develop later today as a
large swell enters the coastal waters. Winds will diminish all
waters tonight and Saturday with high pressure temporarily
building in across the coastal waters and bays. Southerly winds
will become gusty on Sunday ahead of the next cold front.
Significant wave heights will build up to 25 feet by Saturday.
Wave heights will decrease slightly by Sunday before increasing on
Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM tonight, at 
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will 
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will 
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very 
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong 
rip currents and sneaker waves through the day, while the 
breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the 
swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 
feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored 
breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power that will 
overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk 
of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, 
avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never 
turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on
Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Today):

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM 
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast 
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, 
long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the 
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and 
rip currents.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding 
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. 
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% 
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher 
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea 
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly 
during high tide.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-
     506-508-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST 
     Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
     530.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Rothenberg
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 13 20:30:03 PST 2026