FXUS66 KMTR 162109
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
109 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

 - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the weekend

 - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

Once again, the North Bay Valleys have cleared out of the fog 
with some still lingering across the far interior East Bay 
Valleys. With high pressure aloft, it is another very warm day 
across the region. This is especially so across the Central Coast 
with temperatures already in the upper 60s to low 70s. In the 
higher terrain across all of the region, temperatures range from 
the mid 70s to low 80s. 

Tonight, expecting another round of fog to develop across the 
West Delta, North Bay Valleys, and East Bay Valleys as similar 
conditions are likely. 

Tomorrow, similar conditions as today are expected across much of
the region as the high pressure largely remains the dominate 
feature and offshore winds in the higher elevations persist. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1241 AM PST Fri Jan 16 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

Nice, dry weather will continue for the next several days. Some 
high clouds will roll in from the south this weekend, which should
moderate both max and min temperatures a bit, while producing 
some colorful sunrises and sunsets. Ensemble cluster analysis 
shows high confidence that the strong ridge at 500 mb over the 
Gulf of Alaska will gradually erode over the next 5-7 days. The 
uncertainty grows beyond the middle of next week, but either zonal
flow or a troughing pattern seems more likely than continued 
ridging. While the change at the surface will be subtle, onshore 
flow will gradually return, high temperatures will cool a few 
degrees, and coastal clouds will start creeping back in by the 
middle of next week. If the pattern becomes more active, there is 
a chance for very light rain as early as next Thursday, with a 
stronger signal for more substantial precipitation by the middle 
of the following week (end of January).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 AM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR across the board. Some potential for fog to return tonight 
across the North Bay Valleys - highest confidence in fog impacting 
STS overnight with moderate confidence in fog impacting APC. Winds 
generally stay light but locally breezier winds along the coast, the 
delta, and in the Salinas Valley are expected. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Winds stay light and generally offshore 
through the forecast period. Some potential for low clouds and a 
slight drop in visibility after 12Z but confidence is low. Model 
guidance indicates it will be too dry in the lower levels thanks to 
offshore flow for fog to spread across the SF Bay.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds at MRY stay light through the 
forecast period. The forecast for SNS is slightly more intriguing. 
There is some potential for fog overnight at SNS, similar to last 
night, but the most favorable conditions don't occur until early 
tomorrow morning. As conditions become more favorable for fog, a SE 
drainage wind strengthens in the Salinas Valley. The development of 
a SE drainage wind this morning effectively put a stop to fog and we 
can expect it to stop fog development again tomorrow. Have kept SNS 
VFR through the TAF period as a result.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 855 AM PST Fri Jan 16 2026

Locally breezy winds expected across the San Pablo Bay, the 
delta, and through the Golden Gate Gap through this weekend. 
Elsewhere, light northeasterly to northerly winds persist through 
the forecast period. Light seas continue into early next week 
before our next round of long period swell arrives and brings 
light to moderate seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 16 16:30:02 PST 2026