FXUS66 KMTR 032353
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
453 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026

 - Cooler temperatures through Tuesday with a chance for drizzle 
   and light rain, mainly along the coast and the North Bay

 - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026
(This afternoon through Monday)

It's a cloudy morning across the Bay Area and Central Coast with the 
stratus deck extending far inland, with a strong upper level low 
moving over the region allowing for remarkable expansion of the 
marine layer, to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk 
about a marine layer depth. KMUX radar returns are also showing 
light rain showers and drizzle across the San Mateo Peninsula, parts 
of Santa Clara County, and the Monterey Bay region, with the 
potential for additional drizzle where the radar beam is 
overshooting the low level processes, such as the North Bay and 
southern Monterey County. Drizzle chances diminish after around 1 
PM, and some breaks in the clouds may develop across the inland 
regions this afternoon, but this is a lower confidence forecast. 
Have decreased the high temperature forecast across the region in 
light of the potential for continued cloudiness through the day. 
Highs in the lower to middle 60s are expected in the Bay Area 
interior valleys, the lower to middle 70s in the southern Salinas 
Valley, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the coast and Bays. 
Conditions are broadly similar on Monday as the upper level low 
moves over the state, with additional cooling expected in the 
southern parts of Monterey County as highs reach the middle to upper 
60s.

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 11 PM this 
evening due to long period northwesterly swell, an increasing risk 
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. See the BEACHES section 
for more information.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The upper level low continues to move across California through 
Tuesday, resulting in a continuation of the cool temperatures, 
extensive stratus decks, and a slight chance for light rain and 
drizzle across the region, but mainly at the coast and within 
topographically favored locations. The latest model output shows the 
low descending into southern California, allowing for a band of 
moisture to wrap around the low and bring some wetting rains to the 
North Bay Monday night into Tuesday morning. The current forecast 
shows rain totals of up to a quarter of an inch in the interior 
regions of the North Bay with totals a few hundredths of an inch 
closer to the coast and extending into the Bay Area. Of note, high 
resolution model output continues to show the possibility of higher 
rain totals, up to around half an inch in the North Bay, which might 
be possible if there are some particularly strong showers across the 
rain band. Flooding concerns remain minimal and focused on areas of 
exceptionally poor drainage or where drainage pipes are blocked or 
clogged. 

By Wednesday, the upper level low moves into the Great Basin and 
southern Rockies with ridging building back behind it, leading to a 
warming and drying trend in the region with highs rising to the 70s 
and 80s inland. The CPC extended outlook shows that temperatures 
above the seasonal averages are likely to persist through the middle 
of May, while precipitation totals lean below the seasonal average. 
For context, the seasonal average high in downtown San Francisco is 
around 64 degrees, while the seasonal average precipitation total 
for the May 10 to 16 period, as covered in the CPC 8-14 day outlook, 
falls a shade under two tenths of an inch for the same station.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026

Still decent amount of clouds around the region, but thankfully
mainly AOA 3k feet and SCT to BKN. Expect this to continue through
this evening. Some lowering is likely after sunset into the MVFR
range. CIGs lift again tomorrow with daytime heating and an upper
low passing overhead. The upper low may kick off a few showers,
but mainly for STS and APC Monday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Expecting persistent CIGs from 3000-3500 feet 
through Monday. Winds ease overnight, but increase again Monday
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR CIGs this evening and then lower to
MVFR by tonight and through tomorrow AM. VFR will redevelop Monday
afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026

An upper level low over the region will keep pressure gradients
light near the surface allowing for continued light winds across
the coastal waters today into early next week. A long period swell
is passing through the waters with generally light seas. NW wind
and seas will begin to build later in the week and into next
weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026

Long period northwest swell, with periods of 15 seconds or above, is 
now being reported on the offshore buoys and has either made it to
the coast, or will arrive imminently. These long period swells 
increase the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, particularly 
as the period between swell impulses results in lulls of around 20
to 30 minutes before larger sets of waves arrive. Due to the 
dangers, a Beach Hazards Statement for all Pacific coast beaches 
remains in effect until 11 PM Sunday night. Never turn your back 
to the ocean! Don't be fooled by calmer seas; observe the waves 
for at least 20 minutes before approaching the coast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...RW

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun May 3 20:30:03 PDT 2026