FXUS66 KMTR 141452
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
752 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

 - Breezy to gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions this weekend through Monday
   with low RH and windy conditions

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Patches of stratus around Monterey Bay and the western San mateo
Peninsula should steadily dissipate through the morning with clear
skies through the day. The main forecast issue today will be
refining the strengthening winds across the region starting 
tomorrow through the weekend, as an inside slider pattern develops
with an upper level low tracking from the Pacific Northwest into
the Great Basin. In particular, the need for any wind or surf
products over the weekend will be investigated.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Today and tonight)

Not much in the way of cloud cover overnight with only two little 
blips of clouds, but even those are fading. One of the main things 
at play here driving the clear skies - sfc pressure gradients.  SFO-
ACV is near -6mb, which is standard rule of thumb to keep stratus 
outside of SF Bay/SFO.  SFO-WMC is near 2mb and is forecast to 
become negative by sunrise with a stronger offshore component and
not just northerly. 

For Thursday day, given warming 850mb temps, rising H5, and offshore 
flow expect a gradual warm up under sunny skies. About a 5 to 10 
deg warm up over Wednesday and trending above normal for mid-May.
Highs will be 60s/70s bays/coast and 80s to near 90 inland. Will 
say offshore flow does ease through the day and expect onshore to 
kick in again with an afternoon onshore gusty push. 

Thursday night - onshore flow lingers at the immediate sfc, but 
higher elevations begin to shift offshore again with drier air 
working in. Could see some patchy coastal stratus, but a solid 
marine layer is looking less likely. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

Friday will feature one additional day of warming as temps tick 
upwards a few more degrees. Still above normal, but nothing too 
crazy and HeatRisk remains Minor. The bigger story for Friday will
be the winds. SFO-ACV gradient ramps again and this time 
near -7mb. That will bring some very gusty winds over the coastal
waters making for a hazardous marine environment. Additionally, 
winds increase along the immediate coast and the higher terrain.

Over the weekend winds remain high and get a helping hand from a
passing upper level trough through the PacNw/NorCal. This feature
also pauses the warming trend for Sat/Sun. The passing trough
finally deepens into a low Sun/Mon across the Great Basin. Pattern
recognition shows this is decent for offshore push by early
Monday. Hi-res guidance ramps up the SFO-WMC gradient to -11mb.
That will translate to weakening N-S winds along the coast and
coastal waters and increasing winds over the N Bay Mts and E Bay 
Hills. Borderline for Wind Adv Sun night/Mon AM as winds look to 
remain over the higher peaks. It goes with out saying that the
offshore flow will leading to warming temps early next week. Still
not buying the NBM output for max temps, but a return to the 80s
near 90 is plausible. Will likely be warmer at the coast too with
the offshore flow influence. 

Last but not least, interior and higher terrain areas will see a
noticeable drop in RH beginning Thursday and lasting into next
week. The combo of bursts of wind (N-S and Offshore flow) and low
RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Latest Energy 
Release Component (ERC) charts show an upward trend toward 
critical levels for mid-May. These charts are taking into account 
temp/rh, but not wind. 

Recapping - roller coaster for temperatures the next few days. 
Winds increase and remain impactful over the coastal waters and 
land. RH will decrease both day and night with a marked drying 
trend.
 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

CIGS are building along the coast. HAF keeps IFR CIGs through the 
morning, but erode before noon. CIGs around the Monterey Bay will be 
less consistent as an eddy in the bay oscillates LIFR clouds through 
the area until the mid morning. Winds stay light through the morning 
but become moderate to breezy into the afternoon. Stronger winds and 
gusts look to affect HAF and SFO in the mid afternoon and look to 
last into the night. Expect winds to reduce into the night with 
sites in the far interior going light. Winds aloft will stay on the 
stronger side overnight, just missing LLWS criteria. Additionally, 
winds over the marine environment will be much stronger through the 
weekend.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. winds stay light until 
the late morning before breezy and gusty west-northwest winds build. 
These winds increase in the mid afternoon with gusts in excess of 
30kts possible. Winds reduce and gust cut off into the early night, 
and become lighter into Friday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Spotty LIFR CIGs are rotating around the 
bay in an eddy, pushing into MRY, but coverage doesn't look to stay 
consistent. CIGs look to erode in the mid morning leading to VFR. 
Winds stay weak through the morning but moderate west and northwest 
winds are expected into the afternoon. Expect these winds to become 
light into the early night, with MRY going southwesterly as winds 
reduce.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Hazardous marine conditions have become widespread with gale force
winds affecting the northern waters into Thursday afternoon.
gale- force gusts winds become widespread Friday morning and
continue to gain strength over the weekend. Locally stronger gusts
will be possible along some of the coastal jets where storm force
winds will be possible. The strong winds will drive seas between
12 to 19 feet. Winds peak on Sunday and reduce steadily into the
next work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore 
winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak
gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40 to 50 mph along 
the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. 
Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the 
interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday 
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a 
modest offshore flow continues into the work week. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Strong winds build Friday and peak over the weekend over the
marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and
overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing 
conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower 
swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the
risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate 
coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. 
Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities 
from the spray and sand. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 
     nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 14 08:30:03 PDT 2026