FXUS66 KMTR 221155
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
455 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through 
   Wednesday

 - Minor HeatRisk with below to near normal temperatures Monday

 - Warming trend with pockets of moderate HeatRisk possible across 
   the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday 
   through Thursday, peaking Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026
(Today through Tuesday)

Stratus continues to build into the valleys this morning, with 
the marine layer hovering around 1200 to 1500 ft. Upper-level 
ridging from the Eastern Pacific will build overhead through the 
period, with the warming and drier trend continuing. Temperatures
today will still be slightly below to near normal with highs in 
the 60s along the coast, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the interior 
valleys. Heights continue to build into Tuesday, bringing high 
temps around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today, with a pocket of 
Moderate HeatRisk possible around San Jose.

The marine layer, which is currently around 1200 to 1500 feet, 
will begin to compress through the period as ridging builds 
overhead. Expect stratus to retreat back to the coast by this
afternoon. Slightly less stratus building inland tonight. The 
more compressed marine layer may allow patchy fog to develop along
the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys this morning with a 
slightly better potential tonight/Tuesday morning.

We continue to highlight a long-period southerly swell that will 
bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a 
Beach Hazards Statement out through Wednesday. If heading to the 
coast, stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! For more information, see the BEACHES
section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

While the warming trend is still expected to peak on Wednesday,
ridging has been tempered slightly, and projected high 
temperatures are slightly lower than previously expected. Highs 
will still climb into the 60s to low 70s along the coast, with 
upper 70s to near 90 for interior locations. A few pockets of 
Moderate HeatRisk are still possible, with the best potential near
San Jose again. Slightly cooler but still warm temperatures for 
Thursday with an upper-level trough approaching the West Coast. 
Highs are expected to be about 1 to 3 degrees cooler from their 
peak on Wednesday. The cooling trend will become more noted Friday
into Saturday as upper-level troughing settles the western US. 
The marine layer will also deepen with the troughing, and drizzle 
will be possible, especially along the coast. Onshore winds will 
increase, peaking Friday into Saturday with a frontal passage, 
bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph across ridgelines and through gaps and
passes. A warming trend is expected to favored to begin by late 
weekend, but overall confidence is low as there is quite a large 
spread in model guidance this far out in regards to the 
progression of the upper trough to the east and ridging trying to
creep back in from the eastern Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR-IFR conditions prevailing through the mid morning hours,
with clouds scattering to the coast between 18-20z. Cloud bases 
slightly lower tonight with better chances for MVFR conditions for
many TAF sites. Clouds moving inland after 01Z Tue. Typical 
diurnal winds expected across the Bay Area and Central Coast.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus IFR expected over the next few hours
with clouds clearing between 17-19z with moderate to high 
confidence on timing. MVFR conditions by 04z Tue, likely
transitioning to IFR after 06z with cigs lowering near 600-800ft.
West wind near 10 knots this morning, increasing to 12 to 20 
knots beginning 19z Monday afternoon, then easing to near 10 knots
mid Monday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Increased chance of BKN 
cigs to linger in the afternoon hours.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...MVFR until 18-19z. then VFR prevailing; 
MVFR returns near 06z Tue. NW winds 5-10 knots through the 
period for SJC, W winds 5-15 knots for OAK.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ prevailing through the 
morning, improving to VFR this afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns 
this evening and night. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 839 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight through early Monday morning north to northwest fresh to
strong winds continue over the northern outer waters, resulting
in hazardous conditions for small craft. For other inner and outer
water, north to northwest winds will be light to moderate. Long
period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 14 to 16 seconds will 
increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the week as 
energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the
California coast, especially for south and southwest facing 
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically 
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of 
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards 
Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday 
afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. 
Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves,
potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in 
people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough 
to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a 
lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from 
jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the
water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Slagle
LONG TERM....Slagle
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...Malarkey

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 22 06:30:02 PDT 2026