FXUS66 KMTR 301001 CCA
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
201 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
...Updated Tidal information in Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

 - Generally pleasant conditions with temperatures remaining above
   the seasonal average through the next week

 - Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore for the San
   Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

 - Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker
   waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows some high level clouds streaming across the 
North Bay into the SF Bay Area, spilling over from a cold front in 
the northeastern Pacific associated with a low pressure system off 
the coast of British Columbia. Otherwise the region remains 
generally clear. Patchy fog is possible across the North Bay 
interior valleys and the interior portions of Contra Costa County, 
although confidence in the forecast is moderate given the stream of 
high clouds which could inhibit radiational cooling across the 
region. Low temperatures this morning drop into the lower to middle 
40s for the interior valleys and the Bays, with lows in the upper 
30s across the southern reaches of Monterey County, while the 
Pacific coast sees lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Through the day, upper level ridging continues to dominate across 
California, leading to clear to partly cloudy skies, seasonably warm 
temperatures and light to gentle offshore flow across the region. 
High temperatures across the region range from the lower to middle 
60s across the North Bay and most of the SF Bay Area, into the upper 
60s to the middle 70s in the South Bay and the valleys of the 
Central Coast. 

Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly 
along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey 
Bays near high tide today through Sunday, the result of a 
combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the 
system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not 
anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the 
beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that 
typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco 
tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.4 
feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 8:34 
AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical 
tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes 
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

Little change to the forecast is expected Saturday with upper level 
ridging remaining across the region and temperatures continuing to 
hover in the middle 60s to middle 70s inland. San Jose continues to 
flirt with its daily record with a high temperature forecast of 70, 
just one degree shy of tying the record high of 71 from 2015. 

A trough will come through the region Sunday and Monday, with the 
main impacts being to cool the South Bay and Central Coast valleys 
to the middle 60s to near 70 for those two days. Rain chances 
continue to trend northwards and diminish across the North Bay. The 
ECMWF ensemble now shows a grand total of 0 members out of 50 with a 
trace of precipitation at the Sonoma County Airport. For context, 
the previous forecaster saw 2 of 50 ECMWF ensemble members showing a 
trace at STS. Adding the GFS and Canadian ensemble models gives us 
50 more ensemble members, none of which show any rain at STS 
(compared to 2 out of 30 members for the GFS ensemble, and 4 out of 
20 for the Canadian ensemble, when the previous forecaster was 
writing their discussion). Still can't rule out light drizzle over 
the Sonoma Coastal Range, but the chances of accumulating rain have 
dropped to around 10-20% across the region.

Upper level ridging returns by Tuesday and persists into the end of 
the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s 
to middle 70s in the interior valleys. CPC outlooks indicate a high 
likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above the seasonal 
average for the 6-10 day period (February 4 to 8), and that it is 
slightly more likely than not (50-60% probability) that 
precipitation totals remain below the seasonal averages during that 
same period. For context, downtown San Francisco typically sees 
highs around 60 and rainfall totals around three quarters of an inch 
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 835 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

A strong 500 mb high pressure ridge will be located over the 
forecast area tonight through Friday. It's a moderate to high 
confidence VFR forecast tonight through Friday with exception of 
patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing tonight and Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light N-NE wind.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. E-SE winds 5 to 15 knots tonight and
Friday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots Friday afternoon and 
early evening, winds shifting back to light E-SE mid to late Friday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 832 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes continue through Friday
before winds veer and become southerly over the weekend. Rough
seas are expected through early Friday morning across the coastal
waters, diminishing to moderate during the day on Friday and
Saturday before rough seas return Sunday and Monday as another
moderate to long period swell arrives along the coastline.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 925 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches 
through Friday morning. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Also, a Coastal Flood Advisory 
has been issued from today through Sunday for high tides up to 1.4
ft above normal (on Saturday at 9:30 AM at the San Francisco tidal
gauge). This will mainly impact coastal areas adjacent to the San
Fransico, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. Flooding of lots, parks, 
and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, 
and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 30 02:30:02 PST 2026