FXUS66 KMTR 091816
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1016 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through the midweek

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late week and into the upcoming 
   weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1145 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)

Dry weather continues over our forecast area due to a nearly 
stationary long wave ridge centered over the southwestern states. 
Cirrus clouds with the southern extent of the polar jet stream are
moving over the North Bay while to the south it is clear. Nocturnal
radiative cooling, most pronounced south of the cirrus clouds, is
allowing continental air to cool (higher pressure), setting up a 
light land breeze in contrast to the much of above Nov normal sea 
surface temps in the 60s as much as +10F to +11F above Nov normal 
(air in contact with the warmer sea surface temps equals lower 
pressure). Surface winds flow from high pressure to low pressure, 
which is keeping the warm maritime influence held to the coastline
or even nudged slightly offshore. Sea surface temps as warm as 
they are could easily keep coastal night-time/morning minimum 
temperature much warmer (e.g. San Francisco Aug 2015 set about a 
1/2 month of record high min temps, recall El Nino of 2015-2016), 
but remarkably at this time so far this has not been the case 
because of continental influence. November (vs August) brings 
occasional mid-latitude weather influences, much lower sun angle,
longer night time cooling hours.

Cooling tonight through daybreak Monday will produce additional 
low clouds and patches of fog. Because of the much above normal 
sea surface temperatures, water vapor availability is much more 
robust. Daytime sea breezes temporarily usher higher water vapor 
and hazy conditions inland, then when the winds turn neutral to a 
light land breeze, cooling is introduced (cooling described above)
and it is easy to reach saturation. Patchy dense fog may redevelop
tonight and Monday morning. Will monitor satellite and observations
and issue a dense fog advisory if needed.

Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will continue slightly above 
normal with highs in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and
lower 80s inland. Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s. A 
very weak 500 mb trough in the flow will pass by this time 
tomorrow night otherwise high pressure will prevail through early 
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1145 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

An increase in northern hemispheric long wave troughs is occurring
and will continue to hold during this time-frame. One long wave 
trough will strengthen over the northeastern Pacific and another 
long wave trough will strengthen downstream over the eastern 
states. In the 120 hour time-frame, out to Friday, the leading 
edge of strong polar jet stream winds will dig southward forming a
closed 500 mb low ~ 300-400 miles to our west-southwest Thursday.
Steering winds will continue to drive the newly formed closed 500
mb low toward southern California. This may leave a cold frontal 
passage with a chance of rain for our forecast area on Friday, 
though this is a low confidence forecast since model output is 
varying on rain amounts. Friday is five days out which is about 
the max we can rely on for global model output in the complex 
seasonal transition period of fall-winter. Dynamic strengthening 
is forecast upstream and downstream, both within the long wave 
trough over the east and to our west, but also with the ridge in 
between, nudged slightly forward during this time. If the upstream
long wave trough is able to slowly advance eastward, this should 
increase the chance of rain here, possibly to a greater chance 
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

After a foggy morning, visibility and ceilings are beginning to 
lift. Expect VFR area wide therafter through late evening. Impacts 
from stratus and fog are anticipated to develop once again after 
midnight and continue through at least mid-morning Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently LIFR but starting to lift and should 
clear completely around 20z. VFR this afternoon with onshore flow. 
Moderate (60%) confidence in IFR ceilings developing at the terminal 
late tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low lying clouds are still covering the 
approach between Palo Alto and the terminal, but should clear by 
20z. Moderate (60%) chance of return of low lying clouds tonight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast 
period due to a weak but persistent fetch of offshore flow across
the Monterey Bay area.
 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1013 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Moderate to fresh breezes combined with a dynamic sea state
continue to produce rough to very rough seas, with hazardous
conditions for small craft across the bays, coastal and outer
waters through this evening. Seas begin to subside Tuesday and
winds will back through the day Wednesday to become southerly.
Elevated mixed long period swell will continue through the week,
increasing further by next weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 330 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show 
the moderate swell and moderate period continue to produce an
energetic surf zone. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, 
and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 
to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at 
favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents 
and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the 
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, 
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if 
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave 
activity midweek, but longer range forecasts show additional 
swells impacting the coast next weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 
ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft 
above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These 
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the 
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will 
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an 
increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for SF Bay N of 
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...JM/KK
MARINE...JM/KK

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Nov 9 12:30:02 PST 2026