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NWS Technical
Weather Discussion |
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FXUS66 KMTR 111204
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
404 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms
today
- Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Today and tonight)
A gale force low pressure system off the Central Coast will ride
northward, parallel to the California Coast today. It will weaken as
it does so, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and southerly
winds to relatively diminish. Rain showers with a slight chance of
embedded thunderstorms will continue today. The three ingredients
needed for a thunderstorm of lift, instability, and moisture will
all be in place, even if the instability and moisture are on the low
end. The low shear environment and nearly uni-directional wind
profile will result in a low potential for any kind of rotation.
Impacts wise, drivers can expect slick roadways and ponding on
roadways. If a thunderstorm were to develop, lightning, locally
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and
erratic/gusty winds are all potential hazards.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return Thursday and
persist into Friday as the surface low dissipates and surface high
pressure builds into the West. Global ensemble clusters are in
agreement that upper-level heights will begin falling Saturday.
Upper-level longwave troughing will develop off the West Coast and
be the primary driver of the weather for the rest of the long term.
ECMWF Ens and GFS Ens are in agreement that an upper-level low gets
pinched off the longwave trough and a surface low develops by
Saturday. There is uncertainty after the weekend stemming from the
progression and strength of the low feature. While confidence is
still high that it will rain from Saturday on, there is about a half
an inch of spread each day of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The
official total rainfall forecast seems to be beneficial right now
with no mainstem river flooding expected, largely in part to the
recent dry spell. Winds will also increase Sunday into next week
with low probabilities (less than 20%) for gusts in excess of 45 mph.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
A low pressure system offshore of the Bay Area is bringing multiple
rounds of scattered showers to the region this morning. Airports may
experience temporary breaks in rainfall but the overarching
conditions through Thursday morning are expected to be rainy. This
is additionally resulting in ceiling heights temporarily dropping to
MVFR conditions from VFR. Temporary MVFR CIGs are most likely to
develop this morning with CIGs to rise this afternoon/evening.
Easterly to southeasterly winds prevail for much of the TAF period.
Winds initially start out gustier (20-30 knots) before decreasing to
around 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon/evening with winds decreasing
further overnight. There is a slight (15-20%) chance of
thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon as the next round
of showers pushes into the South Bay and Central Coast. Confidence
was too low to include in TAF but cannot fully rule out an isolated
thunderstorm developing.
Vicinity of SFO...Isolated showers continue to impact SFO with
temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights expected as
showers move over the airport. Gusts to around 25 knots are expected
during the day before winds ease overnight. Confidence is low that
MVFR CIGs will return this afternoon/evening but LAMP guidance shows
that there is a chance for MVFR CIGs to last for much of the day.
Scattered showers continue through Thursday morning before drier
conditions return.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers moving into the Monterey
Peninsula are resulting in temporarily lowered CIGs and locally
gustier winds in the Salinas Valley. Scattered showers continue
through Thursday morning with rain chances decreasing by late
Thursday morning. Gusts peak between 20 to 25 knots this
morning/afternoon before diminishing this evening. Confidence is low
that MVFR CIGs will persist but cannot rule out temporary CIG height
decreases if a stronger shower moves over the airport.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Gusty winds continue through late morning before diminishing. Gale
force gusts remain possible across the inner coastal waters
through late this morning. Winds will generally be out of east to
southeast but will remain variable through Thursday thanks to a
low pressure system linger offshore of California. Rain and a
slight chance of thunderstorms persist through early Thursday.
Moderate seas continue before seas increase and unsettled weather
returns over the weekend as the next storm system approaches.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ516>518-
528-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 11 08:30:03 PST 2026
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From the National Weather
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reserved Boulder-Creek.com. |
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Revised:
29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT
(Pacific) |
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