FXUS66 KMTR 062340
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
440 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

 - Seasonably cool temperatures through Tuesday before a warming 
   trend arrives for the second half of the week

 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight 
   before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

 - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of 
   sneaker waves and strong rip currents Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)

The marine layer was slightly deeper overnight which resulted in 
further inland extent into the valleys this morning. However, 
visible satellite imagery is showing gradual clearing back to the 
coast as of early this afternoon. That said, locations along the 
coast may very well not see the sun at all today, or maybe just 
brief breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will remain 
seasonably cool this afternoon.

For tonight and into Tuesday morning, expecting coastal stratus 
to return back into the inland valleys. Once the low clouds 
retreat to the coast by Tuesday afternoon, expect slightly warmer 
temperatures compared to previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)

A gradual warming trend will begin Wednesday, yet temperatures will 
still be a few degrees below seasonal averages. As high pressure 
strengthens over the Desert Southwest and southern California, 
temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages and potentially 
slightly above. That said, only expecting Minor HeatRisk with 
isolated pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior spots on 
Thursday. All in all, a typical summer time pattern with stratus 
keeping conditions cooler near the coast while the interior warms 
up. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The marine layer is about 1,500 feet deep and will remain
consistent through the TAF period. That allows me to rely heavily
on the persistence forecast, or simply a repeat of what we've
observed over the last 24 hours. All terminals are expected to
develop a ceiling overnight, but the duration will vary from a few
hours inland to all day along the coast.

Vicinity of SFO...The stratus picture looks nearly identical to 24
hours ago with a massive bank of clouds along the coast and a
small finger creeping through the Golden Gate. These clouds will
spread within the marine layer to the East Bay and then wrap
around to SFO. Yesterday the ceiling developed at 0240Z, and
that's a good guess for tonight as well. The ceilings should stay
above 1,000 feet, but if they do dip into IMC, the most likely
time is between 06Z and 12Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Broadly similar to SFO, however the ceilings
may take a few more hours to fully envelop the Bay after reaching
the terminal.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The ceilings never cleared at MRY today,
and there's a good chance they won't tomorrow either. SNS is
currently clear, but long duration ceilings will roll in very soon
and will persist through midday Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Northwest winds increase from fresh to strong breezes with near
gale  force gusts through the day and persist into the weekend. In
response, moderate seas continue to build into rough by Wednesday
as  the southwest swell impacts our coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast 
beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period
southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker 
waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 
feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing 
beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San 
Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can 
sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into 
the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and 
surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. 
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 
     0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Navarrete

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jul 6 18:30:03 PDT 2026