FXUS66 KMTR 272353
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
453 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

 - Moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific
   Coast locations through the week

 - Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures through the
   extended forecast

 - Potential for rain this weekend and again early to mid next
   week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
(This evening through Wednesday night)

A chill is in the air! Weak, persistent troughing continues over the 
West Coast keeping a cooler airmass locked in place over us. High 
temperatures stay in the 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s 
along the coast while overnight lows drop into the 40s. Pockets of 
the North Bay, the Gabilan Range, and the Eastern Santa Clara Hills 
will see morning lows drop into the upper 30s. Daytime high 
temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the 850 
mb temperature running anywhere from 7C to 11C (between the mean and 
25th percentile). Conversely, overnight lows are anywhere from 
seasonal to slightly below normal to slightly above normal (higher 
elevations) for this time of year. So while it may feel chilly in 
the morning, remember it could always be chillier for this time of 
year. Diurnally breezy winds continue along the coast and across 
mountain gaps/passes during the afternoon and evening with 
occasional gusts between 20 to 30 mph. The windiest conditions are 
expected late this afternoon/evening with weaker winds expected 
along the coast on Wednesday.

Coastal flooding peaked early this afternoon and will continue to 
diminish through the remainder of the week. Today's tides came in at 
2.01 ft above normal (7.85 ft MLLW) with the peak occuring at 12:24 
PM. High tides will peak at 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 
12:56 PM on Wednesday. High tides are due to a combination of high 
astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects bringing 
moderate coastal flooding to the Bay Area and Pacific Coast. The 
worst flooding is expected along bayshore Marin County with numerous 
reports of flooding coming in over the last few days. If you have 
any photos or documentation of coastal flooding from October 2026 
please share them with us on social media so we can better document 
coastal flooding impacts.&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
(Thursday through next Monday)

Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term 
forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again 
next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in 
the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along 
the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below 
normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to 
low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper 
level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings 
another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough 
moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and 
Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside 
of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia 
Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to 
some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on 
Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another 
deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival 
remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced 
ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now 
arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next 
week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s. 
Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial 
guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an 
inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the 
end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are 
expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an 
eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple 
chances for rain.

Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights 
to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has 
high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on 
Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39  PM Friday 
10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on 
Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially 
attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the 
anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the 
Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for 
all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR is forecast tonight and Wednesday except for patchy valley 
fog /IFR-LIFR/ developing tonight and Wednesday morning. Surface 
high pressure will build into the Great Basin tonight and Wednesday
morning. Afternoon and evening onshore winds will shift to offshore
winds tonight and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 13 gusting to 22 knots until 04z
this evening, winds decreasing and becoming light northeasterly
Wednesday morning. West wind around 10 knots redevelops Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 10 knots becoming
light easterly tonight and Wednesday morning, then onshore 10
knots Wednesday afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Fresh to strong NW breezes strong breezes continue this afternoon
across the waters, with isolated near gale force gusts occuring
over the northern water waters. Seas will continue to build in
response, leading to rough seas across exposed waters. Conditions
will gradually start to improve Thursday as winds decrease to and
seas subside.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-505-506-
     508-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Oct 27 18:30:03 PDT 2026