FXUS66 KMTR 112349
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
349 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Friday

 - Tule fog and stratus continue for the North Bay, East Bay and 
   South Bay

 - Light rain remains possible next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
(This evening through Friday)

Clearing skies have finally returned to much of the region, aside 
from the far interior East Bay and bay side areas of Marin County. 
Thus, as high pressure remains in place over the Bay Area and 
Central Coast, we are expecting to see temperatures reach into 
the mid to lower 70s in the higher terrain and interior areas of 
the Central Coast. Elsewhere, mid 50s to lower 60s can be expected
around much of the Bay Area, North Bay and East Bay this 
afternoon. These areas still remain under the influence cooler 
conditions observed in the Central Valley as offshore winds 
persist. 

Tonight, expecting another return of tule stratus and/or fog across 
much the valleys in the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and areas 
around the Bay Area. This is as high pressure remains parked over 
the region and light to moderate offshore winds. 

For Friday, temperatures will largely be above average for this time 
of year, again expect for those that remain beneath the cloud cover 
for much of the day. We have warmer temperatures across the board 
for Friday but have largely used persistence as guidance. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

By Saturday the ridge axis shifts to the east and gives way to more 
of a zonal flow aloft. However, temperatures will still remain some 
5-10 degrees (up to 15 degrees in the higher elevations) above 
seasonal averages. By Sunday and Monday we should begin to see high 
level clouds move into the region from the north. This will be signs 
of the ridge fattening and zonal flow returning with light the 
potential for light rain by Monday, especially across the North Bay 
and as far south as the Bay Area. Chances linger at times through 
much Friday. Again, rainfall amounts are currently forecast to be 
light and not amount to much more than 0.25" through next Friday 
(again for the Bay Area and points northward). Little to no rainfall 
(outside of the Santa Cruz Mountains) is expected across the Central 
Coast and Santa Clara Valley.  

From the previous forecaster: "The most interesting development in 
the forecast is in the extended long range, where there is a 
moderate chance for an atmospheric river late next week. It's too 
early to talk about specific impacts or timing, but the Climate 
Predication Center has placed the Bay Area in a moderate risk for 
both heavy precipitation and strong winds from 12/18-12/21. The 
bullseye looks like far northern California, but that has been 
trending south over the last few model updates."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 339 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

North Bay terminals are expected to drop into LIFR/IFR vis and/or
ceilings overnight into late Friday morning, similar to the past 
24hrs. Clearing is expected by late morning, possible early 
afternoon for KSTS as high pressure continues to build and pivot
over central California.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to persist through the forecast
period. Scattered low stratus is possible at times but not 
expected to develop ceilings.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northerly flow persists over the coastal waters with strongest
winds north of Point Reyes. Northwesterly swell will gradually
diminish through Friday. Light offshore winds will continue from
the Delta to the San Francisco Bay and through the Golden Gate.
Offshore flow will bring clouds and fog in the West Delta. Swells
will diminish further over the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

Long period NW swell is causing hazardous beach conditions 
through Friday. This energy brings strong rip currents, an 
increased risk for sneaker waves, and large breaking waves. This 
coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more 
people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach 
Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the 
power of the ocean and never turn your back on it. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Dec 11 20:30:02 PST 2025