FXUS66 KMTR 081629
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
929 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

 - A warming trend today through the weekend

 - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker
   waves and strong rip currents through Friday

 - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above
   ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
   tidal waterways

 - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns
   late this weekend into early next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Stratus coverage is dissipating across the region at a much faster
pace than yesterday. Temperatures remain seasonal to seasonally
cool today with interior highs in the 80s and coastal/bay
shoreline highs in the 60s to 70s. The interior Central Coast
remains seasonally warm with highs in the 80s to 90s today. A
warming trend remains on track for tomorrow with interior high
temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s expected. Portions of the
interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. We
continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorms late this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
(Today and tonight)

A 500 mb high pressure system centered over the southwestern 
states is forecast to continue shifting essentially westward to 
southern California and northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. A
500 mb trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific. Onshore
winds will continue to usher stratus inland through morning, with
diurnal surface warming mixing out much of the stratus by late
morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the 60s coastside,
60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. 

Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to 
mid 60s at higher elevations tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)

The aforementioned high pressure system will be nearly stationary
on Thursday then it'll shift northeastward Friday through early 
next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s,
60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far 
inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will
cool to the 50s/60s. 

Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will rather 
quickly transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our 
forecast area beginning Saturday evening and night. There are 
hints in the GFS for example that a mid level moisture gradient 
to our southwest will straddle the coastal waters and offshore 
waters late Saturday/Sunday then again Tuesday. The intrusion of
dry air above lifting moist air parcels/layers tilt the lapse rates
much more steeply leading to convection. There may be a temporary
increase in mid level instability traversing our forecast area
early in the week. A sign for minimal potential, at this time at 
least GFS forecast soundings are indicating essentially no 
convective potential (mucape) over our forecast area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MVFR at all terminals except KSTS, which is IFR, and these
conditions should persist through the morning until stratus begins
to retreat later this morning. The one exception may be KMRY that
may drop into IFR, however a weak otter eddy appears to be
maintaining MVFR attm.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence in MVFR ceilings to prevail
until lifting by early afternoon. Breezy onshore flow will persist
through today and tonight before easing after midnight, however
shouldn't be as strong as yesterday. High confidence on MVFR
ceilings developing later tonight with only moderate confidence in
IFR ceilings.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...KMRY continues to hover between MVFR/IFR
with guidance suggesting IFR ceilings are possible between now and
mid-morning. However, a weak circulation of the Monterey
Peninsula appears to be holding the low IFR ceilings in place. 
Moderate confidence that KMRY remains MVFR through the day but 
subsequent updates may hint at a short window of VFR mid-afternoon
today.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Rough seas with heights between 8-12 ft continue to build into the
weekend across the waters accompanied with a long period southerly
swell. Northwest fresh to strong breezes with near gale force
gusts  persist into the weekend. Seas are expected to subside
slightly (8- 10 ft) next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this
weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as 
fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns 
further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge
of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the 
potential for high based convection to the region. If 
thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, 
erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current 
pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may 
change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of 
potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay
up to date on the forecast for the latest information.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast 
beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell
will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be 
especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with 
moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco 
Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across 
the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing 
conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off 
of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. 
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn 
your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide 
forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide 
flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The
combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and 
new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from 
thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal 
datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7
feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking
lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For
context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-
     506-508.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Navarrete

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jul 8 10:30:03 PDT 2026