FXUS66 KMTR 110012
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
412 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION and MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

 - Widespread rain arrives this afternoon and evening with 
   showers persisting through Thursday morning.

 - Strong south winds this evening into Wednesday morning with 
   gusts of 40-50 mph along the Big Sur coast and higher terrain 
   in Monterey and San Benito Counties.

 - General risk of thunderstorms this evening through Wednesday 
   with chances for lightning, localized gusty winds, small hail, 
   and locally heavy rain.

 - Break in rain chances midday Thursday through Saturday before a
   colder and wetter pattern returns Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 
(This afternoon through  Wednesday)

Initial rain bands moving onshore as of 2 pm with early reports of
a tenth or less for most of the coastline and locally up to 0.20
for the hills above Big Sur. These values will continue to
increase over time as the low offshore continues to spread rain
bands over the region. The surface low is currently around 1002 mb
and located 200 miles west of Point Piedras Blancas. The HRRR 
model is taking the surface low on a northeast trek towards Pt 
Reyes by around midnight or early tomorrow morning. The southerly 
winds around the low will be strongest over the southern coastal 
waters where Gale warnings are in effect. Wind Advisories 
officially go into effect for Monterey and San Benito counties 
from 4 pm this afternoon through 4 am Weds. So far we have seen 
gusts in the 35-40 mph range for coastal Monterey county and the 
higher terrain of San Benito county with gusts to around 30 mph in
Santa Cruz county. For the most part not expecting advisory level
winds for the greater Bay Area. The steep lapse rates and 
unstable air aloft keep the slight chance of thunder in the 
forecast overnight but haven't seen any flashes over the last 
several hours. It appears as though the initial push of rain has 
stabilized the lower levels with temperatures now falling into 
the mid 50s where rain is falling. 

On Wednesday the main low will wobble just offshore in the
vicinity of the Farallone Islands. Winds wont be much of a 
concern with periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
Daytime highs will continue to be cool with mostly cloudy skies 
and rain dragging cold air aloft down to the surface. For the most
part we expect beneficial rains for this event with storm totals 
by Thursday morning of 2-3 inches Santa Cruz/Santa Lucia mountains
and 0.50-1.00 most of the lower elevations except 0.25 on average
for the drier rain shadowed valleys such as Salinas and 
Livermore.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Shower activity should more or less end for the North Bay by Weds
night as the low slowly drifts southward. There will be lingering
showers for the Bay Area Weds night with the final showers ending
for the Central Coast by around sunrise Thursday morning. Dry but
cool Thursday afternoon with lingering afternoon cumulus given the
proximity of the upper low and cool/unstable air still aloft over
the region.

High pressure noses over Northern California Friday and Saturday
with a return to dry weather and seasonable temps for mid
February.   

Rain chances could return as early as Saturday night but more
likely Sunday as a cold trough drops down form the Gulf of 
Alaska. Periods of rain become likely later Sunday into Monday. 
The source region suggests no main stem flooding concerns (i.e. 
its not an atmospheric river) but rather beneficial February rains
with some unusually low snow levels a possibility. A first 
estimate of 1-3 inches of rainfall later Sunday into Monday with 
another system possible by Tues/Weds and then again Friday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

Unsettled weather will continue across the region this evening as
a low pressure system spinning off the coast moves inland. This
system will bring periods of light to moderate rain through 
tonight. Anticipate moderate to strong gusty southerly winds over 
the Monterey Bay region, moderate and gusty east to southeast 
winds for much of the Bay Area, and moderate east to northeasterly
winds for the North Bay. Cigs will gradually decrease through the
evening and into tonight as the low approaches from the west 
resulting in scattered areas of MVFR. Rain chances will persist 
beyond the current TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Northeasterly winds will veer increasingly to
the Southeast this evening as the low pressure approaches. Rain
will turn to showers overnight with some breaks likely. Rain will
continue into Wednesday with moderate and gusty southerly winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate and gusty east to southeasterly
winds and rain will continue through this evening and into 
tonight with period of MVFR cigs possible with the passage of
heavier showers. Rain will continue into Wednesday with moderate 
and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

Southerly winds have increased ahead of low pressure with gale 
force gusts possible south of Pigeon Point through Wednesday 
morning, with the highest confidence between Point Sur and Point 
Piedras Blancas. This system will bring along with periods of rain
as well as chances for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through 
early Thursday. Swells will stay mostly moderate in the mid week, 
but increase into the weekend as the next rain system approaches.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ516>518-528-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST 
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CW
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Feb 10 18:30:03 PST 2026