FXUS66 KMTR 090532
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
932 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through the midweek

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late week and into the upcoming 
   weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

High pressure remains the dominate weather pattern aloft leading 
to our warming trend, despite a weakening frontal boundary to our 
north. As such, temperatures will remain 5-10 deg F above early- 
November climatological norms. Meanwhile, high clouds continue to 
stream in from the west. Tonight and into Monday morning, there is
the potential for low clouds and/or fog in the Bay Area, much of 
the Santa Clara Valley, East Bay Valleys, and North Bay Valleys. 
Similar to today, any fog that does develop will likely dissipate 
between 9 AM - 10 AM and give way to mostly sunny conditions by 
the afternoon. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be within a few 
degrees of those today. 

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for 
safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement 
and Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Bay Area and 
Central Coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will result in 
temperatures across the interior Central Coast to be some 10-15 deg 
F above normal with the northern portions of our region remaining 5-
10 deg F above. The high pressure is forecast to shift eastward into 
the Desert Southwest on Thursday as the trough off of the West Coast 
deepens.  

Rain chances have largely been pushed back to Friday and Saturday 
with both deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing a cut-off low pressure 
system developing and pushing inland over Southern California or 
Baja California from Friday through Sunday. However, there is still 
chances for rain during this timeframe as the main trough axis 
shifts inland across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California 
Saturday through Monday. Be sure to check back for the latest 
forecast information as we near late week and into the weekend. 
Exact details on the system's trajectory and expected rainfall 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Currently MVFR-VFR with stratus off the coast and high clouds 
streaming in from the southwest. Moderate confidence on a 
persistence forecast for tonight; bayshore and coastal terminal
ceilings will likely be on the IFR/MVFR cusp with fog more likely
for interior terminals. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate (60%) 
confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR developing at the 
terminal tonight. Similar to last night, the terminal will likely be 
on the edge of it with worse conditions to the east and south. The 
most probable time within the possible window of 08Z to 18Z is 12Z 
to 16Z. Diurnal winds will prevail. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate confidence on clouds below FL070 
developing as soon as 08Z, conditions beginning to improve by 14Z, 
and clearing by 19Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and 
VFR with northeasterly flow at SNS. A brief IFR ceiling was observed 
at MRY until winds backed to become easterly; thus, expect IFR 
ceilings in the vicinity of the terminals. There is a similar signal 
as to what happened last night with IFR ceilings possible now, 
mixing out in the middle, and then returning late tonight with the 
best chances between 11Z and 15Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Rough to very rough seas will create hazardous conditions for
small craft across the inner waters, outer waters, and Monterey
Bay through Monday. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will
prevail through Tuesday, with bays remaining more sheltered. Seas
begin to subside Tuesday and winds will back through the day
Wednesday to become southerly.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice.
However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach 
Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf 
zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As 
such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents 
will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at 
exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides 
will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. 
Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people 
into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, 
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the 
water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf 
and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave 
activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional 
swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 
ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft 
above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These 
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the 
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will 
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an 
increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 8 22:30:03 PST 2026