FXUS66 KMTR 100758
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

 - Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled
   weather returns late week into next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return
   late week into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Tonight through Wednesday)

A very weak and dry 500 mb trough in the flow will pass to our 
east overnight. Slightly higher surface pressures will continue
to build in over the coastal waters to far northern California
into Tuesday morning. In the wake of the trough, 500 mb ridging
will return Tuesday. 24 hours ago the surface pressure gradient 
was more susceptible to light land breezes i.e. cool air drainage 
winds mixing with higher dew point air (water vapor) resulting in 
fog to dense fog development. The potential is there for low 
clouds and fog through Tuesday morning, but if e.g. the SFO-SAC 
pressure gradient can hold onto a weak onshore direction this may 
help limit the areal coverage of fog and dense fog Tuesday morning.
That is, sea surface warmth with a light onshore wind may help slow
or reduce fog and dense fog coverage, except for inland valleys 
farthest removed from maritime influence. Otherwise a clear sky to
daybreak Tuesday morning will allow radiative cooling. Will of course
monitor satellite and observations and issue a dense fog advisory
if needed.

Dry weather continues Tuesday through Veterans Day. Daytime highs
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue slightly above normal with highs
in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and lower 80s inland.
Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Strong polar jet stream winds crossing the Pacific will move a 
500 mb low toward southern California and northern Mexico Thursday
through Friday. There's increasing confidence that a cold front 
with at least light to moderate rain will arrive in our forecast 
area Friday. Recent model forecasts show southerly to southwesterly
winds increasing out ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Wet
weather may impact the morning commute in the Bay Area, but right
now chances look more favorable that the bulk of the rain (and wind)
will arrive in the late morning through afternoon, something to 
keep in mind for the afternoon and possibly the evening commute. 
Rain totals at this time: 1" North Bay to 1/3" to 1/2" elsewhere 
across the rest of the forecast area. 

A few showers linger Saturday. Another cold frontal passage Sunday
brings another chance of rain. Cold upper level troughing with the
potential for additional rain is forecast for late weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

The forecast seems to be on track this evening, as skies 
have cleared and satellite shows some fog developing over coastal 
Marin and just north of Half Moon Bay. More noticeable fog has 
developed up in Mendocino County and is slowly working its way 
south. Given the observations and the latest hi-res guidance opted
to generally push back timing by several hours, closer to 10Z or 
12Z. Models seem to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR 
vis for KSTS, KOAK, and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior 
sites like KAPC and even KSFO. Still think that any fog that does 
form tonight should erode between 17-19Z. VFR conditions will 
prevail after that. 

Vicinity of SFO...No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it 
appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud 
development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR 
vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi-
res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR, 
REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of 
any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions 
prevail. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to 
develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR 
cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and 
gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing 
should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19-
20Z. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...Weak offshore flow returns to the forecast 
tonight which should be enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR. A few 
models still hint at a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS 
again. Kept the hint at any development in the TAF, with the 
return of onshore flow by the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Seas will continue to subside tonight, with the offshore waters
becoming rough while nearshore waters become more moderate. These
conditions will persist through Tuesday and most of Wednesday,
with seas building late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds during this
time frame moderate to fresh and from the north Tuesday before
becoming gentle to moderate on Wednesday. The sea state becomes
dynamic once again by the second half of the work week into next
weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18 seconds
late in the forecast period. Seas are expected to become very
rough to high.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Beach Hazards:

The Beach Hazards Statement was allowed to expire this evening, as
wave are gradually subsiding and there appears to be a brief lull
in wave activity. However, spring tides are still occuring and 
will increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. 
Forecasts show building waves and seas late Wednesday into 
Thursday morning, with additional additional swells impacting the 
coast this coming weekend. When visiting the beach, continue to 
practice beach safety. Remember, waves can sweep across the 
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, 
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if 
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM 
Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM 
Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM 
Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM 
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast 
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, 
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the 
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and 
rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM/KR

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 10 02:30:03 PST 2026