FXUS66 KMTR 270046
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine 
   and beach conditions through Wednesday morning

 - Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through 
   Thursday

 - Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Cool conditions are forecast to prevail today in wake of the early 
morning frontal passage. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to 
be in the middle-to-upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast with 
middle 60s to lower 70s across the interior with amble amount of 
sunshine. Speak of sunshine, there is also a chance of rain showers 
over Napa County through this evening as the forecast calls for 
generally 150-250 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Some of these rain 
showers (if they develop) may move across the interior East Bay this 
evening before the loss of daytime heating reduces the instability 
aloft. It will also remain breezy through the evening and into 
tonight, especially near the coast and in the higher terrain 
across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Onshore winds will continue
with gusts of 30-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across 
the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.

As the cut-off low pressure lingers over northern (today) and 
central (tomorrow through Thursday), we are forecasting unsettled 
weather conditions to prevail. However, wind speeds are forecast to 
diminish slightly. With similar conditions expected on Wednesday, the 
greatest potential to see more than 0.10" (15-25% probability) will 
be across the interior Bay Area and Monterey/San Benito County. 
There is also a chance of thunderstorms, yet they largely remain 
less than 15%. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

On Thursday, there is a greater potential for rain showers across 
the region with the mid/upper level cut-off low forecast to be just 
off of the Bay Area/Central Coast coastline. Thus, PWAT values are 
forecast to be around 1.00". However, the thunderstorm potential 
will be less as the atmosphere becomes more stable. The NBM 
probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" remain around 10-25% from 
11 PM Wednesday night - 11 PM Thursday morning. That said, the 
probabilities from the convective-allowing ensemble guidance is 
greater than 50% of reaching or exceeding 0.25" across places 
outside of the North Bay. All that said, looking like a wide range 
of possibilities with varying outcomes as far as rainfall amounts 
go, yet widespread flooding concerns remains very low. Just expect 
wet roadways across the region during periods of rainfall.

The low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather early 
this week will finally shift eastward with a shortwave ridge 
building in to the Bay Area/Central Coast. However, more zonal flow 
will bring a slight warming and drying trend to the region and is 
forecast to prevail into early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the 
North and East Bays. Thunderstorms are most likely to impact APC 
with some potential to impact LVK as well this afternoon and 
evening. Shower chances generally decrease by late this evening but 
are expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon/evening. Gusty 
winds continue through this evening before diminishing overnight. 
Another round of breezy to gusty winds is expected across the region 
tomorrow but gusts should be weaker tomorrow than they were today 
(potentially peaking between 20 to 25 knots). Generally expecting 
CIGs to stay above 3000 ft tonight but CIGs may temporarily dip into 
MVFR conditions before rising again.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty NW winds continue through this evening with 
winds trending downwards overnight. Breezy to gusty winds are 
expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening but should be weaker 
than they were today. Chances for scattered light rain increase 
tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence that a shower will 
directly impact SFO is low. CIGs are expected to return overnight 
but should stay above 3000 ft.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this 
afternoon as MVFR CIGs have moved in and our of the region. Gusty 
onshore winds are expected to weaken overnight with breezy onshore 
winds expected to return again tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance 
scattered showers will impact MRY and SNS again early tomorrow 
morning but confidence remains low. High resolution guidance keeps 
storms tied to the elevated terrain but cannot rule out a shower or 
two making it farther north. VFR conditions return by late tomorrow 
morning with shower chances returning tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Fresh northwest winds will continue with widespread strong to
gale force gusts over the coastal waters through tonight. Gusty
winds will develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build
to between 12 to 15 feet tonight into late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of 
     Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to 
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 26 20:30:02 PDT 2026