FXUS66 KMTR 111204
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
404 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

 - Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms
   today

 - Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Today and tonight)

A gale force low pressure system off the Central Coast will ride 
northward, parallel to the California Coast today. It will weaken as 
it does so, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and southerly 
winds to relatively diminish. Rain showers with a slight chance of 
embedded thunderstorms will continue today. The three ingredients 
needed for a thunderstorm of lift, instability, and moisture will 
all be in place, even if the instability and moisture are on the low 
end. The low shear environment and nearly uni-directional wind 
profile will result in a low potential for any kind of rotation. 
Impacts wise, drivers can expect slick roadways and ponding on 
roadways. If a thunderstorm were to develop, lightning, locally 
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and 
erratic/gusty winds are all potential hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return Thursday and 
persist into Friday as the surface low dissipates and surface high 
pressure builds into the West. Global ensemble clusters are in 
agreement that upper-level heights will begin falling Saturday. 
Upper-level longwave troughing will develop off the West Coast and 
be the primary driver of the weather for the rest of the long term. 
ECMWF Ens and GFS Ens are in agreement that an upper-level low gets 
pinched off the longwave trough and a surface low develops by 
Saturday. There is uncertainty after the weekend stemming from the 
progression and strength of the low feature. While confidence is 
still high that it will rain from Saturday on, there is about a half 
an inch of spread each day of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The 
official total rainfall forecast seems to be beneficial right now 
with no mainstem river flooding expected, largely in part to the 
recent dry spell. Winds will also increase Sunday into next week 
with low probabilities (less than 20%) for gusts in excess of 45 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

A low pressure system offshore of the Bay Area is bringing multiple 
rounds of scattered showers to the region this morning. Airports may 
experience temporary breaks in rainfall but the overarching 
conditions through Thursday morning are expected to be rainy. This 
is additionally resulting in ceiling heights temporarily dropping to 
MVFR conditions from VFR. Temporary MVFR CIGs are most likely to 
develop this morning with CIGs to rise this afternoon/evening. 
Easterly to southeasterly winds prevail for much of the TAF period. 
Winds initially start out gustier (20-30 knots) before decreasing to 
around 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon/evening with winds decreasing 
further overnight. There is a slight (15-20%) chance of 
thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon as the next round 
of showers pushes into the South Bay and Central Coast. Confidence 
was too low to include in TAF but cannot fully rule out an isolated 
thunderstorm developing.

Vicinity of SFO...Isolated showers continue to impact SFO with 
temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights expected as 
showers move over the airport. Gusts to around 25 knots are expected 
during the day before winds ease overnight. Confidence is low that 
MVFR CIGs will return this afternoon/evening but LAMP guidance shows 
that there is a chance for MVFR CIGs to last for much of the day. 
Scattered showers continue through Thursday morning before drier 
conditions return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers moving into the Monterey 
Peninsula are resulting in temporarily lowered CIGs and locally 
gustier winds in the Salinas Valley. Scattered showers continue 
through Thursday morning with rain chances decreasing by late 
Thursday morning. Gusts peak between 20 to 25 knots this 
morning/afternoon before diminishing this evening. Confidence is low 
that MVFR CIGs will persist but cannot rule out temporary CIG height 
decreases if a stronger shower moves over the airport.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Gusty winds continue through late morning before diminishing. Gale
force gusts remain possible across the inner coastal waters
through  late this morning. Winds will generally be out of east to
southeast  but will remain variable through Thursday thanks to a
low pressure  system linger offshore of California. Rain and a
slight chance of  thunderstorms persist through early Thursday.
Moderate seas continue  before seas increase and unsettled weather
returns over the weekend  as the next storm system approaches.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ516>518-
     528-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 11 08:30:03 PST 2026