FXUS66 KMTR 070102
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
502 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday 
   evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

 - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night.

 - Better chances for rain middle of next week.

 - More active pattern looks to set in next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(This evening through Saturday)

It's another Chamber of Commerce weather day across the central
Cali coast with sunny skies and widespread temperatures in the
60s. However, the thin layer of stratocu that developed along the
Big Sur coast is a sign of potential trouble for tonight. This is
this sign of a bit of a marine layer working back on to the
mainland. RAP Bufkit soundings highlight around a 1000 foot deep 
moist layer developing tonight, which means valley stratus and fog
will become problematic. HREF/REFS are showing lower visibilities
with fog developing for most of the major valleys in the region, 
with dense fog developing up through Salinas, the southern Bay 
into San Franciso Bay itself and up in the valleys of Napa and 
especially Sonoma county. This may lead to some fog/low stratus 
issues Saturday morning at all Bay area airports.

For the rest of Saturday, we'll spend the morning burning off 
what fog/stratus we end up with, with another stellar afternoon of
weather expected across the Bay area and central coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

The big story for the long term is the much anticipated(?) pattern
shift at the end of the period, with a western trough developing
next weekend. Before that large scale pattern shift settles in,
there will be a couple of blips to watch out for, late Sunday 
through Sunday night and Tuesday into Wednesday morning. 

The first trough that we see finally starting to beat down the
ridge comes Sunday. This will be heading for Washington and 
Oregon though, with central California seeing a weakly forced 
plume of moisture moving south along the coast Sunday through 
Sunday night. EPS QPF probabilities barely bring precip 
probabilities into northern Sonoma and Napa counties, so we 
continued to trim the southern extent of PoPs across the Bay area 
Sunday night from the NBM. In the end, this looks to be a cloud 
and sprinkle maker, but not much more than that in the MTR area.

Tuesday, a deeper trough starts working down the west coast. We'll
see stronger onshore flow develop with this trough, with deeper
moisture moving into California. Precip chances from the NBM
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night remain in the 40-60% range. A
look at the individual members of the EPS for SFO, still shows
about a 60/40 split between wet/dry members at SFO, so it's still
not a lock that we see rainfall at some of the rain shadowed
locations midweek. Even if we get rain, amounts still look light
with up to 0.5" on the coastal ranges.

Behind this wave, we see another ridge build in across California
Thursday/Friday out ahead of the deepening trough over the 
northeast Pac. This ridge will dry us out and bring some sunny 
skies again for Thursday and Friday, giving us one more break 
before the deep troughing arrives. When that deep troughing 
gets here, we'll see an uptick in rainfall for the second half of
next weekend that will continue into the following week. Also 
happening mid-February with the trough moving (week of 2/16) is 
freezing levels will be dropping, with snow levels starting to 
move down as well. At this point, it doesn't look like freezing 
levels will be low enough to significantly impact higher 
elevations in the MTR area, but those that are hoping to just see 
snow in western mountains somewhere, there is hope for you with 
the current outlooks in mid-February! 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

Marine stratus along the North Bay coast and off of SF and 
Monterey Bay will increase along the coast this evening. 
Overnight, confidence is high that stratus and localized fog will 
advance inland under onshore flow. Most terminals tonight will see
MVFR/IFR ceilings develop, with ceilings trending more toward IFR
by early Saturday morning. Fog is most likely near STS overnight 
into Saturday morning, with lower potential for fog elsewhere. 
Conditions should improve by early Saturday afternoon across the 
area, with stratus eroding back to the coast. The onshore flow 
regime will open the door for more impacts from low stratus 
Saturday night as well. Winds through the period will mostly be 
light, with onshore or diurnally-driven winds tonight and 
primarily onshore winds on Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO...Marine stratus late this afternoon is extensive
off the coast, with development along the coast starting to take
place. Confidence is high that conditions will remain VFR through
around 06Z, but MVFR ceilings are expected by late evening, likely
deteriorating to IFR overnight. Mist may develop into Saturday 
morning, although fog is unlikely. Gradual improvement late 
Saturday morning, improving to VFR by 20Z. Winds will be light WNW
overnight, becoming briefly variable late Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...High confidence in VFR through mid
evening, but stratus will move in by late evening and persist
through Saturday morning. Conditions expected to become IFR
overnight, with gradual improvement by late Saturday morning
before clearing. There is potential for fog late tonight (slightly
higher potential at SJC than OAK), but confidence is visibility
dropping below 1SM at either terminal is low. Winds mainly light
NW to variable.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR conditions, which will
persist through the evening. IFR stratus should arrive overnight
into Saturday morning before improving by early afternoon. Mist 
is also expected at times. Winds mainly light NW to variable.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A light northwest wind will increase and become more northerly
this evening into Saturday. Northerly winds will increase in the
Northern Monterey Bay on Saturday morning, with seas then
diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves
southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during
the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in
north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today 
at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues 
through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk
for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to
22 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM....MPG
AVIATION...Tangen
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 6 20:30:03 PST 2026