FXUS66 KMTR 120610
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1010 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

 - Rain showers linger overnight and taper off Thursday morning. 

 - Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early 
   Saturday morning.

 - Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Rain showers continue across the region as a gale force low pressure 
system remains off the coast. Thunderstorms/strong rain showers 
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall leading to 
localized flooding, small hail, and erratic/gusty winds. The low 
is expected to weaken and fill as it moves south tonight, which 
will allow for rain shower activity to wane, southerly winds to 
diminish, and the thunderstorm potential continuing to lower. A 
potential impact as it moves south will be training which would 
pose the risk of localized flooding. If you are driving, keep your
headlights on and cruise control off; ponding and slick roadways 
are expected.

Sarment

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this 
afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight. 
The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today) 
upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on 
satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will 
continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has 
seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas 
and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"-
1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50".

A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the 
remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based 
CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some 
spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low 
attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability. 
Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done 
by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing 
offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow. 
Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning 
clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area 
Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and 
Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below 
seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid-
60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in 
midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain 
chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern 
that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast.

By early Sunday morning, we'll see the influence of the deepening 
trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland 
during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will 
increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain 
chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing 
farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks 
consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and 
continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of 
precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays 
update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West 
Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than 
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

The low has drifted south leaving showers confined west 
of the San Francisco Peninsula, slowly drifting onshore. Latest CAMS 
keep the the North Bay fairly dry over the next few hours, so 
adjusted the TAFs once again. VFR conditions should prevail at most 
sites with KSTS having the potential to fog/cloud over if the winds 
remain light enough. May need to monitor for fog early Fri morning. 

Vicinity of SFO... CAMs show lingering showers around the Bay 
tonight, which may lead to brief reductions in vis or cig if they 
make it to the terminal. Conditions gradually dry through the 
morning hours, leaving us precipitation free by the late morning or 
early afternoon. May need to monitor for fog early Fri morning. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the 
period, unless showers skirt by which could then drop cigs and vis 
down to MVFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected by Thursday 
morning, with winds taking an onshore component by the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Low pressure sits off our waters, leaving winds us with moderate
to fresh winds over the waters. Opted to hoist a new Small Craft
Advisory for Point Reyes to Point Pinos as strong breezes remain
and should hold through the early morning hours before they begin
to slacken. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate,
south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and
outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough
seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15
second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and
near-shore conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, 
excluding Northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue 
through early Saturday morning. There is an increased risk of 
sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves 
of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your 
beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other 
waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous 
surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late 
     Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 12 02:30:03 PST 2026