FXUS66 KMTR 242351
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
451 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

 - Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend

 - Dry weather continues this week; increasing potential for light
   rain to return beginning of April

 - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains
   Thursday into Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(This afternoon through Wednesday)

Adjusted temperatures up slightly today given a number of daily
high temperatures were set yesterday, with some more expected
today. H50 height field will continue to gradually weaken the
remainder of today and Wednesday. The net result of the lower 
heights and slight increase in cloud cover Wednesday will be
around a 5 degree drop in daytime highs from todays values. The
progressive trough working to flatten heights on the backside of
the persistent ridge will also result in breezy to gusty winds at
times Wednesday afternoon, especially near the coast and elevated
interior locations. Increased coverage of marine stratus along the
coast is also likely, but will struggle to penetrate too far 
inland with the upper ridging still holding it back mostly to the 
coastline. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Not much change in the long term forecast through the weekend.
Pleasant weather while temperatures mostly run 10-20 degrees 
above normal with generally light winds. The signal for a more
significant pattern change appears to be trending upwards with
ensembles and deterministic guidance coming more in line with one
another. Confidence is highest for at least temperatures to be
moderated closer to normal by the beginning of next week. The
deeper offshore troughing beginning Monday that would be more 
favorable for potential rainfall also seems to be more likely than
at this time yesterday. This is a trend we'll be monitoring 
closely. Attm the North Bay and the coastal ranges are in the best
position to get periods of wetting rain later Monday into 
Tuesday, which does speak to the shallow nature of the moisture 
source in the lower boundary layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. Low to moderate probability for
sub-VFR conditions to return to bayshore and coastal terminals
tonight. If ceilings do develop, they will likely be on the cusp
of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail with gusty winds
developing tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate
confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period with about a
40% chance for sub-VFR conditions to return to the terminal 
tonight. If a ceiling were to develop, it would likely be on the 
cusp of IFR/MVFR. Strong westerly winds will develop tomorrow, 
with about a 35% chance for gusts to reach or exceed 35 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY
and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in VFR
prevailing through the TAF period. There's about a 45% probability
for sub-VFR conditions to return tonight. If a ceiling were to
develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal 
winds will prevail, with gusty conditions developing tomorrow 
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 432 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Moderate north-northwesterly breezes will persist through tonight
and begin to increase further Wednesday. By late Wednesday gale
force northerly winds will develop across the northern outer
waters and continue into Thursday. Expect rough to very rough seas
to develop by late Wednesday through Thursday, then begin to
subside on Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 
     nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 24 18:30:02 PDT 2026