FXUS66 KMTR 261207
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
407 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 104 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025

 - More rain showers, with up to a 15-20% chance for 
   thunderstorms through Friday. 

 - Breezy south to southwest winds with gusts up to 20-35 mph for much
   of the region and up to 30-45, locally higher for the 
   mountains.

 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for 
   flash flooding and landslides from high rain rates.

 - Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue through Friday 
   across the Pacific coast and adjacent beaches.

 - Cold temperatures settle in this weekend after the storms break

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 104 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another disturbance will move through the region, bringing 
additional rainshowers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms to 
the region. The primary hazards for today's storms will be heavy 
rainfall, small hail, and perhaps some stronger wind gusts. Chances 
for rain begin to taper of later in the day and by Friday evening as 
the disturbance tracks eastward. Winds shift to the north, which 
should cutback on moisture. Showers may linger through Friday night 
and into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 104 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

Drier weather works its way into the region as upper level ridging 
builds over the west. Chilly nights are tap through early next week, 
thanks to high pressure and clear skies. High temperatures will be 
either at or below their seasonal average for this time of year as 
well. Cluster analysis shows the upper level ridge gets nudged to 
our east around or just after New Year's day, with upper level 
troughing trying to set up over the Gulf of Alaska. This may end the 
work with rain chances. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 353 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025

Isolated light to moderate showers through late morning into 
midday today. Low confidence in exact timing and coverage, but hi
res ensemble guidance seems to have a decent grasp on a couple of
bands of showers moving through the region between the 18-22Z
hours. Gusty S winds continue through this period, but diminish
shortly thereafter this afternoon. Skies gradually clearing into
tonight and winds begin to veer back to our typical onshore
regime.

Vicinity of SFO...A few showers invof the terminal through midday
today, and should remain light to moderate in intensity. By the 
afternoon hours, showers become more widely scattered and skies
begin to clear gradually. As the strong surface low pulls away
inland, onshore NW flow looks to be restored by Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...A few lingers strong showers will quickly
vacate the area this morning, giving way to another round of
isolated showers by late morning. Overall precipitation intensity
trends downward gradually this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM PST Fri Dec 26 2025

Additional showers continue to develop throughout the waters today
with activity gradually diminishing through the day. Winds greatly
diminish as the surface low moves inland. Rough and choppy seas
linger through today before subsiding through the weekend. Much
quieter marine conditions anticipated for next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 350 PM PST Thu Dec 25 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement continues for the coast through 4 AM 
Friday. The main concerns include:blowing and drifting sand and 
wind waves up to 20 ft. The drifting sand and increased sea spray 
will also result in poor visibilities, affecting water rescues. 
Increased coastal erosion will be possible as well. 

A High Surf Advisory is then valid for the coast from 4 AM to 10 
PM Friday. For the High Surf Advisory: expect large breaking waves
up to 25 feet, strong rip currents and sneaker waves. Dangerous 
swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be
expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without 
warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and 
beaches. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in 
significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. 

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather,
surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for 
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-
     512>518-528>530.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of 
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Dec 26 06:30:03 PST 2025