FXUS66 KMTR 101730
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
930 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight 
   conditions

 - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches Sunday
   through Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

Temperatures are starting to rise across the Bay Area and Central 
Coast again this morning with the Extreme Cold Warning and Cold 
Weather Advisory allowed to expire as of 9 AM PST. Morning lows were 
largely in the upper 20s to low 30s with the lowest reported 
temperature being 23 degrees in southern Monterey County (Argyle 
Road - 1109 ft, Interlake Road - 900 ft). Slightly warmer 
temperatures were reported in the higher elevations where low 
temperatures were in the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect two more 
chilly nights before we see more seasonal morning low temperatures 
returning early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 247 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026
(Today and tonight)

High pressure building into the Intermountain West and a coastal 
trough off the California Coast will dominate our weather through 
the forecast period. This pattern is resulting in offshore flow, but 
it's generally light and remaining confined to the higher terrain.
Calm, clear, and cool conditions with long nights is a match made in 
radiational cooling heaven. Some high clouds associated with a storm 
force low in the Gulf of Alaska are streaming in from the north, but 
they look thin enough on satellite imagery that they shouldn't be 
able to impact the minimum temperature forecast. As such, cold 
weather products remain in effect until 9AM this morning. To put 
this cold into context, we'll use SJC as an example. Their minimum 
temperature is forecast to drop to 35 degrees this morning which 
also occurred on December 29th and 30th 2025. Their daily record 
lowest temperature is 27 degrees set in 1920, there's a 0% chance of 
this being tied or broken this morning. The 00Z sounding observed an 
850 millibar temperature of 7.75 degrees Celsius which is above the 
daily mean of 6.9 degrees Celsius. This indicates that we are not 
dealing with a cold snap as much as we are dealing with a colder 
than normal (5 degrees or so) couple of nights. Temperatures will 
warm to near seasonal normals this afternoon. Tomorrow morning's 
temperatures will be slightly warmer with cold weather products 
likely able to be reduced in area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 247 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

We begin to warm up by tomorrow as an anomalously high amplitude 
longwave ridge and its axis moves in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 
This will result in a 10 degree warm up between now and Friday, 
bringing both maximum and minimum temperatures near 10 degrees above 
normal. Unfortunately, pleasant weather will coincide with hazardous 
beach conditions from Sunday through Thursday. If you are going to 
the beach: remain out of the water, stay off of waterside 
infrastructure, and never turn your back on the ocean! If you are 
wondering when it's going to rain next, it's going to be awhile as 
global ensemble clusters show the aforementioned ridge persisting 
through the end of the upcoming week. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show 
rain returning as early as the 20th with the likelihood increasing 
the following week. This dry spell isn't abnormal or something to be 
worried about. It's more of a welcomed break from the watershed (and 
meteorologists alike) after the recent onslaught of impactful rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period with 
generally light offshore flow. More widespread mid-high level clouds 
today and into early Sunday morning. Low potential for fog in the 
North Bay, specifically at KSTS early Sunday morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period 
with offshore flow. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions to prevail through the 
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 906 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

Light to gentle breezes prevail over the coastal waters as high
pressure remains over the region. A longer period and larger
northwesterly builds Sunday afternoon producing a rough sea state
through at least Monday afternoon. Seas then subside into Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 353 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement was issued for the coast from Sonoma to 
Monterey counties Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A 
longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach 
conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, 
and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions 
along the shoreline. 

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday afternoon through Monday 
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jan 10 12:30:02 PST 2026