FXUS66 KMTR 241120
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
420 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

 - Gusty offshore flow across the North Bay Interior Mountains
   subsides late this morning

 - Near normal temperatures this weekend into the beginning of
   next week

 - Coastal flooding due to astronomical high tides and thermal
   expansion this weekend through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1038 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
(Today and tonight)

Gusty offshore flow across the North Bay Interior Mountains is 
ongoing tonight, with the windy and dry conditions dropping MinRH 
values in the 20s for some locations. Fire weather concerns would be 
higher for this area had we not received the recent wetting 
rainfall. The offshore flow regime should mostly limit fog 
development early this morning but still can't be ruled out entirely 
in some of the river valleys in Sonoma County.

Temperatures today will be around 5 degrees warmer than Friday and 
near normal for this time of year. The gusty winds across the North 
Bay will begin to ease by late this morning, with a beautiful day in 
store area wide across our CWA as upper level ridging builds 
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1038 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
(Sunday through next Friday)

Sunday will almost be a carbon copy of today for the North Bay and 
Bay Area, with the Central Coast seeing temperatures warm another 
few degrees. Confidence and consensus in the synoptic pattern is 
poor after Monday. An upper trough shifts south to our latitude on 
Monday bringing a return of onshore flow, however the overall 
progressive pattern is struggling with the depth of the trough and 
how another system well offshore interacts with the flattening 
trough as it moves into the Great Basin. Despite the uncertainty in 
the overall pattern, any troughing or ridging will continue to be 
progressive and low amplitude, with no large temperature fluctuations 
or precipitation chances until the end of next week when the NBM 
seems to pick up on what the current ECMWF deterministic has 
depicted for next Friday into the weekend, troughing with increasing 
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 419 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

High pressure over the Great Basin strengthens overnight resulting 
in a push of offshore flow across the region. The influx of dry and 
warm air into the terminals allows for widespread VFR conditions to 
prevail through the TAF cycle. Winds remain light and variable 
through the early morning hours. By late Saturday morning, onshore 
winds prevail through sunset before becoming light and variable 
again.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Due to lack of cloud 
cover overnight, a bay breeze may develop at the terminal Saturday 
morning (medium confidence). By the afternoon, a moderate northwest 
breeze prevails and gradually becomes southwest post-sunset.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light E-SE breezes persist through the 
morning while gradually becoming onshore (NW) up to 10 kt by the 
afternoon. Post-sunset, light offshore winds prevail once again. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 419 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes persist into early next week
while becoming northwesterly with occasional fresh gusts. In
response, rough seas gradually subside to moderate by Sunday and
remain so through much of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT 
     Thursday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for 
     CAZ505-509.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Oct 24 04:30:03 PDT 2026