FXUS66 KMTR 241911
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1211 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast today

 - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a
   deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday 

 - Gusty onshore winds begin Thursday, peaking Friday and Saturday
   with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine
   concerns through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)

As was the case yesterday, clouds have been slow to erode from 
inland areas this morning with satellite showing many coastal areas 
still socked in. Weak upper level ridging did compress the marine 
layer a bit, preventing it from stretching as far inland as it did 
Tuesday. Patchy fog was reported across multiple coastal sites this 
morning but visibility is quickly improving as an eddy just off the 
coast is helping to lift cloud bases. For areas that remain under 
cloud cover, temperatures today won't see much change from Tuesday's 
highs, generally remaining in the 70s and low 80s. For interior 
areas, the weak ridging will be enough to push temperatures into the 
upper 80s to low 90s today. Temps peak today with Minor HeatRisk 
for those warmer spots before a slow cooling trend begins 
Thursday. 

The marine layer will remain relatively compressed tonight with 
additional patchy fog and visibility impacts for coastal terrain 
into Thursday morning. Upper level troughing will begin to push in 
by Thursday morning, with heights slowly falling through the day. 
This is likely to limit interior warming for Thursday afternoon, 
with highs expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. 
Around the same time, a large upper level low will sweep down the 
Canadian coastline, tightening the gradient over California. Gusty 
onshore winds will begin as early as Thursday, with the strongest 
winds expected for Friday and the weekend. Marine impacts/details 
from the uptick in winds can be found in the marine discussion below 
and in the Small Craft Advisory.

The long-period southerly swell will continue to impact the Pacific 
Coast beaches through this afternoon with a lull for the end of the 
week. High rip current risk with sneaker waves...never turn your 
back to the ocean! Additional beach hazards will be possible this 
weekended, please see additional details in the discussion below. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)

A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue 
to fall with the approaching low to the north. A frontal passage 
Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and 
wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low 
and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a 
deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the 
very far interior spots. Drizzle and light rain will not be out of 
the question for both Friday and Saturday mornings given a 
sufficiently deep marine layer, and clouds may struggle to clear out 
Friday afternoon. Fire weather concerns will also be limited despite 
the strong winds given how high the humidity will be, along with 
excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. 

Saturday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with ample 
moisture and a deep marine layer limiting daytime heating. Interior 
spots may be limited to the low 70s with 60s for most other 
locations and 50s right along the coast, around 10-15 degrees below 
normal. Cooler weather and gusty onshore winds prevail into Sunday, 
but the aforementioned low pivots northeastward and winds begin to 
weaken by Sunday evening. With the lows true departure on Monday,
upper level ridging attempts to move back in but may face some 
push back. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a
troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support 
a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Stratus will continue to retreat to the immediate coast late this 
morning, resulting in VFR conditions this afternoon at most TAF 
sites. The exception will be HAF where IFR/MVFR stratus will 
linger. Expect gentle to moderate onshore breezes through the 
afternoon, becoming lighter overnight. Stratus will redevelop 
tonight into Thursday morning with some possibility of lower 
ceilings and not as much inland development, although this 
remains a low confidence forecast at this time.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the
afternoon. Moderate west winds are expected to develop this 
afternoon and evening, tapering off this evening. Stratus is 
expected to return to the terminal this evening between 02Z and 
05Z. Stratus will be borderline MVFR/IFR ceilings, with lower 
confidence in category, although now leaning MVFR. Stratus should
clear late Thursday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions will prevail through the
afternoon, although a few clouds will linger north of OAK. 
Moderate west to northwest winds will develop this afternoon, 
tapering off this evening. Stratus will return at OAK 01-05Z,
currently favored to be IFR ceilings instead of MVFR but
confidence is low. Stratus should move into SJC overnight with
MVFR ceilings favored. Conditions improving to VFR mid to late 
morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Generally VFR conditions this afternoon
with stratus along the coast. Gentle to moderate northwest winds 
in the afternoon and evening. IFR stratus should return to the 
terminals early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Gentle to moderate winds will persist through midday with
generally moderate seas. Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas
will resume across the waters later today through the latter part
of the week. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the
coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for
small crafts will develop this afternoon and continue through at
least early Friday. Long period southwest swell will persist
through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 16 to 18 seconds emanating
from energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to 
affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest 
facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, 
specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the 
Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A 
Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues 
through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions 
before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much 
farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by 
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip 
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away 
from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the 
beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

The southerly swell is expected to subside tonight into the 
latter half of the work week before increasing again by the 
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zuber
LONG TERM....Zuber
AVIATION...Slagle
MARINE...Slagle

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 24 14:30:03 PDT 2026