FXUS66 KMTR 151726
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1026 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

- Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the 
   interior with low humidities and strong gusts

 - Blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous
   beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday 
   through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
(Friday through Sunday Night)

Zonal flow today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level 
troughing sliding into the northern PacNW marking the start of an 
inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout 
the day with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the 
higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The 
Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up 
to 25 to 35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The 
forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few 
degrees warmer.

Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and 
deepens into the intermountain west and into then into the Great 
Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have 
a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35 
to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and 
ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps 
close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and 
the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with 
gusts up to 25 to 45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. 
Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20 to 35 mph. Timing for 
the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday 
morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon 
through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air 
coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the 
interior Bay Area and Central Coast. 

The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves 
eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the 
day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to 
travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern 
Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the 
temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance 
shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms 
southwest of CA. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
(Monday through Thursday)

The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves 
eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the 
day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to 
travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern 
Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the 
temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance 
shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms 
southwest of CA. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some mist and 
haze being observed at HAF and SNS respectively. High confidence in 
VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range 
visibilities. Winds will strengthen through the morning, becoming 
strong and gusty this afternoon and evening with widespread gusts of 
25 to 35 knots expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High 
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will continue to 
back and strengthen through the morning, becoming strong and gusty 
this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots are likely this afternoon and 
evening with isolated gusts up to 35 knots possible.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at 
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow and haze at SNS. Aside from haze, 
high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Onshore winds will 
continue to strengthen through the morning, becoming moderate and 
gusty this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Widespread hazardous marine conditions are expected today and
through the weekend. Strong to near gale force northerly breezes
will increase through the weekend to become near gale force to
gale  force with widespread severe gale force gusts. Isolated
storm force  gusts are expected along the coastal jet region of
Big Sur. Rough to  very rough seas will build as a result.
Conditions will slowly begin  to improve Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the 
weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph 
for most areas are expected, with  around 40 to 50 mph along the 
coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low 
daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior 
regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity 
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday 
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a 
modest offshore flow continues into the work week. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches 
along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to 
strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously 
strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, 
boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking 
waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical 
injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong 
along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and 
increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by 
reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your 
back on the ocean. 

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through 
     Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday 
     for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday 
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry 
     Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 15 12:30:03 PDT 2026