FXUS66 KMTR 100000
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
400 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

 - Widespread rain chances start Tuesday and linger through early
   Thursday, wITH 75% chance of at least 1.50" in the Santa 
   Lucias

- General thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon through early
  Wednesday brining chances for isolated thunder, gusty winds,
  small hail, and brief heavier rain

 - Strengthening south winds Tuesday into early Wednesday could
   produce gusts up to 40 mph in the high terrain of the central
   coast, peaking late Tuesday

- A break in rain chances Thursday into Friday, then rain chances
  return later Saturday and linger through early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)

Mid to high level clouds are exist over much of the state today as 
the storm track under goes a shift. Near the surface a cold front 
existed the central coast of CA early this morning and ushered in 
cooler air, with 24 hour temperature trends generally around 2 to 8 
degrees cooler than yesterday. Light north winds behind the weak 
boundary have been able to succumb to local influences with terrain 
and coastal interactions, however a few higher elevation 
observations do show north to northeast winds with occasional gusts 
up to 15 to 20 mph (Santa Cruz Mts, Diablo Range, and some 
East/North Bay Mts).  

Current satellite places an upper trough and surface cyclone around 
600 miles off the coast of northern CA today. This upper trough will 
dig southeast and strengthen as the surface cyclone meets a 
stationary boundary located to the southeast. This places the 
location of these features around 300 miles off the coast of central 
CA tonight into Tuesday morning. The upper wave will become a closed 
low as these surface features phase and more moisture gets thrown in 
the mix. The upper closed low continues to deepen Tuesday as it 
rotates from positive to a more neutral tilt. This will also sling 
the deepening surface cyclone to the northeast as reaches ~1001 mb 
to 1005mb. Strong winds wrapping around these features will be 
reflected all the way down to the surface.. with a 925mb to 850mb 
jet of 35 to 45kts that moves over the central coast Tuesday 
afternoon into Tuesday night. The track doesn't quite align for 
stronger southeast winds down the Salinas Valley, and initial 
gradients from KSNS-KPRB remain around 1.6 to 2.2mb which points 
to lower confidence in winds trending stronger up the Salinas 
Valley as we get closer. The higher terrain is a different story 
with the stronger winds aloft. 12Z HREF probabilities 75% chances 
of at least 35 to 45 mph gusts in the higher terrain of the Santa 
Lucias and Diablo Range... with 25% chances for 45 to 55 mph. 
Winds will begin to strengthen midday Tuesday, but peak in these 
areas later Tuesday evening and night. 

A little after winds start to strengthen (Tuesday afternoon and 
evening) the upper closed low and surface cyclone will eventually 
land just right off the coast. Through the afternoon upper heights 
will trend down and increase mid-level lapse rates, as well as a 
quick window of isentropic ascent should move in with ample moisture 
(PWATs increasing to ~0.8"). Some lighter rain and clouds could be 
realized Tuesday afternoon as things approach. As lapse rates 
increase, instability will also increase. Rain will eventually 
become more widespread Tuesday evening with embedded showers and 
storms. Wind shear does exist, and will generally have more of a 
speed shear component.. however local terrain and coastal influences 
will very likely generate enhanced directional shear. Cooler air 
aloft, will help with ice forming and therefore lightning/small hail 
potential exists with some storms. Gusty winds and a few water 
spouts are not out of the question either. Locally heavier rainfall 
with storms will be seen too, however storms will be moving and the 
low will be wiggling around Tuesday night... leading to low 
confidence in training or stalling issues of storms. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)

Wednesday morning, another piece of energy will rotate along the 
west side of the upper closed low... which will keep it centered 
over central CA through early Thursday. Although the features linger 
over the CWA, they will weaken starting Wednesday morning. Clouds 
and light to occasionally moderate rain at times will be seen 
Wednesday into early Thursday. Wind will gradually weaken Wednesday 
morning, with the stronger gusts likely remaining confident to the 
central coast (more details in short term section). 

As the upper troughing exits to the south, upper ridging will build 
in for later Thursday and into Friday. A break in rain chances will 
be seen, with more sunny skies and temperatures slightly warming.

Chances for a quick return to a wet pattern continue to increase. 
Starting Sunday, an upper trough will start to dig southward along 
the state returning beneficial rain and cooler temperatures. Weaker 
surface features look to accompany this system, resulting in higher 
confidence in light to moderate rain... beneficial rain. The upper 
trough continues to dig south and amplify into early next week, 
which should continue wet and cool conditions over the CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

High clouds this evening and overnight ahead of incoming weather
system due to arrive Tuesday. Light winds overnight through
Tuesday morning then increasing out of the south by Tuesday
afternoon with some rain arriving after 20z Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds with mainly high clouds forecast
this evening and overnight. Winds turn light southeasterly to
start the day Tuesday. Main rain band looks to hold off until
after 22z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...High clouds with light winds through
midday Tuesday. Light precip possible for KOAK after 22z and
likely closer to 00z Weds for KSJC.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High clouds this evening. Increasing
southeasterly winds Salinas valley during the day Tuesday. Rain
shadowing should keep both terminals dry through 00z Weds.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal
waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the
west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through
Wednesday. Southerly gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in 
the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and 
track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 9 16:30:03 PST 2026