FXUS66 KMTR 021106
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
306 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2026

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the week

 - Minor coastal flooding today during high astronomical tide for
   bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay

 - Hazardous beach conditions through this evening at Pacific 
   Coast beaches

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(Today and tonight)

An upper level ridge will build overhead today, bringing 
continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Clear 
skies aloft and light winds this morning and again late tonight 
will allow patchy fog to develop primarily in the North and East 
Bay valleys, with a lower (but non-zero) potential for fog along 
the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Motorists that encounter fog 
(locally dense) should slow down, use low-beam headlights, and 
leave plenty of distance ahead of them. Low temperatures will be 
near normal, mainly in the 40s, but some interior valleys will dip
into the upper 30s. Highs today will be similar or slightly 
warmer than yesterday as light onshore winds keep warming in 
check, with temperatures up to 5 degrees above normal along the 
coast and 5-10 degrees above normal inland. 

While impacts from minor coastal flooding will be lower than 
previous days, high astronomical tide late this morning into early
this afternoon will still bring minor flooding to bayshore 
locations along the San Pablo Bay in the North Bay. Hazardous 
beach conditions continue at Pacific Coast beaches through this 
evening, read more in the BEACHES section. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Tuesday through Thursday, winds will turn more offshore as the 
ridge strengthens and slowly shifts to the northeast. This will 
boost highs by 4-8 degrees from today, with Wednesday expected to 
be the warmest day. This will translate to highs in the 70s to 
around 80 in interior valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s near the 
coast. 

On Friday, the ridge will shift east as a weak trough (or even a 
closed low in some models) moves near the coast. For now, rain 
chances from this feature are very low (less than 10%), but a more
favorable track of this system could increase chances of light 
rain. Temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees with 
winds shifting more onshore during the afternoon. 

The pattern is finally expected to change more significantly 
Saturday into early next week as upper level troughing becomes 
more prominent along the West Coast. The trough will bring 
precipitation to the Pacific Northwest by Saturday, with rain 
chances extending south into northern and then central California 
by Sunday and Monday as the trough deepens and progresses to the 
east, accompanied by a cold front. However, rain amounts at this 
time appear to be light and not very impactful, with a continued 
cooling trend. That said, confidence is fairly high on the overall
change to upper level troughing along the coast (85-90% chance of
occurrence), with larger uncertainty on timing and strength of 
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. Patches of fog/stratus have been 
observed intermittently overnight - expect this to continue through 
mid-morning. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF 
period by this afternoon with moderate confidence on sub-VFR 
conditions returning to STS tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with light southerly flow. High 
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds will 
prevail today, offshore flow returns tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with drainage winds at 
both terminals. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. 
Diurnal winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected today for the inner waters and
outer waters due to rough seas and fresh to strong northerly
breezes. Conditions improve tomorrow as moderate seas and a gentle
northeasterly breeze prevails through Thursday. By Friday, seas
build to become rough and northwesterly breezes increase to become
moderate.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 257 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through this evening at 
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, 
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of 
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM PST this 
     afternoon for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tangen
LONG TERM....Tangen
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 2 08:30:12 PST 2026