FXUS66 KMTR 251111
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
411 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

 - Continued mild and dry for Thursday with winds increasing through 
   the day 

 - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a
   deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday 

 - Gusty onshore winds continue to increase, peaking Friday and 
   Saturday, with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and 
   marine concerns through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026
(This morning through Friday night)

The marine layer continues to slowly compress into this morning 
to around 800-1200ft, with slightly less stratus inundation 
expected. Patchy fog again is possible along the coastal terrain. 
Upper-level troughing will begin to push in today, with heights 
slowly falling. Temperatures overall will be fairly similar to 
Wednesday, maybe 1 to 3 degrees cooler due to the decreasing
heights. A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as 
heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. 
While the low stratus will dissipate, an increase in mid to high 
level clouds is expected through the end of the workweek as 
moisture increase with the upper-level trough deepening over the 
West Coast as a large upper-level low sweeps down the Canadian 
coastline.

Gusty onshore winds could begin as early as this afternoon, 
increasing through the night. A frontal passage Friday could bring 
about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 
30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture 
will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ 
min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. As a 
result, fire weather concerns will be limited with excellent 
overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Spotty drizzle and light 
rain are possible, although, little to no rain accumulation expected.

The long-period southerly swell impacting the Pacific Coast beaches 
continues to slowly subside. While the risk for sneaker waves and 
strong rip currents has decreased, they could still occur...never 
turn your back to the ocean. The southerly swell is expected to 
subside through the end of work week before increasing again by the 
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

The cooler pattern with gusty onshore winds continue into the 
weekend, with ample moisture and deep marine layer limiting heating. 
Saturday will be the coolest day of the period and highs will be 
about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, with 50s near the coast and 
60s to low 70s further inland. Again, spotty drizzle and rain is 
possible.

While troughing pattern is looking to linger longer over the western 
US, a slight warming trend is expected to begin on Sunday and 
continue into next week as the the upper low departs and heights 
increase slowly. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor
with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would 
support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler 
weekend. Lingering breezy winds on Sunday will also trend down 
into next week as the gradient relaxes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Extensive MVFR-IFR stratus has developed across the region, with 
patches of LIFR stratus near STS. Stratus will retreat to the 
immediate coast through the morning, with moderate onshore breezes 
gusting to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will 
redevelop across the Bay Area and Central Coast valleys late tonight 
into Friday morning, while the North Bay valleys remain VFR as 
locally downsloping flow precludes the development of stratus. 
Beyond the TAF period, a passing trough should lead to delayed 
clearing times Friday morning and gustier winds Friday into 
Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus persists into the late morning 
hours with strong west-northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt 
developing this afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence in the 
timing of the incoming stratus tonight, but ceilings should develop 
by the early morning hours on Friday and not clear out through the 
remainder of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... MVFR-IFR stratus continues at the 
terminals into the late morning hours. Moderate to fresh northwest 
winds will develop at the terminals this afternoon and evening, and 
remain breezy overnight. Stratus should develop at both terminals 
late tonight into early Friday morning, in SJC's case this will fall 
near or slightly after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Beyond the 
TAF period, OAK might not clear out at all on Friday as a passing 
trough and gustier winds promote stratus flow through the Golden 
Gate.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus persists at the terminals 
through the late morning hours when stratus retreats to the 
immediate coast. Moderate northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt 
will develop in the afternoon and evening, with stratus decks 
returning to the terminals early tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will build through the day
through the weekend. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop
along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous
conditions for small crafts will develop tonight and continue
through at least early Friday before resuming over the weekend.
Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended
forecast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT 
     Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday 
     for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jun 25 08:30:03 PDT 2026