FXUS66 KMTR 162324
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
424 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday

 - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue 
   across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast 
   due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through 
   Saturday

 - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of
   breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)

The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was 
allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to 
diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions 
prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north 
Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values. 

Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high 
pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate 
HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in 
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very
warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by 
early afternoon.

Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower 
60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again 
forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s 
(attributing to the low relative humidities). 

For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow 
will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas 
of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures 
forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)

More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will 
result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the 
return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level 
troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week, 
resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A 
cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north 
Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland 
across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will 
bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday 
through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than 
15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off 
low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory 
of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most 
rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty 
remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as 
we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming 
days.

What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally 
agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next 
week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern 
change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential 
for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential 
for thunderstorms."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

High conf for VFR through the period with lingering offshore flow
and dry air in the lower levels. Onshore returns tomorrow
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Onshore this evening then shifting NE overnight.
Onshore returns tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Diurnal wind patterns with VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 418 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

High pressure over Eastern Pacific and a trough of low pressure
along the California Coast will maintain gentle to moderate
northerly breezes through Friday night. A cold front will sweep
through increasing winds to become strong across the northern
outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly
breezes Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday.
Moderate seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become
rough across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain
is expected Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% 
forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries 
tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer 
weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the 
higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through 
Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday 
into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. 
Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds 
become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. 

KR

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds)
southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for 
sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to 
12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without 
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to 
avoid hazardous surf with strong rip currents and never turn your 
back on the ocean!

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Saturday through Sunday 
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Oct 16 20:30:03 PDT 2026