FXUS66 KMTR 221736
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
936 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Benign weather conditions continue through the middle of the
   week

 - Coastal stratus returns tonight, but clear during the daytime

 - Pattern change arrives after Thanksgiving, with details highly
   unclear

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
(Today and tonight)

The skies remain clear so far tonight with some assistance from 
light offshore flow stemming from the interaction between an upper 
level low centered off the coast of Baja California and a building 
ridging pattern coming in behind it. Radiative fog development is 
possible tonight in the inland valleys, including Sonoma County and 
the interior portions of Contra Costa County, any fog that develops 
should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. High temperatures 
today should range in the middle to upper 60s in the inland valleys, 
to the upper 50s and the lower 60s along the Pacific coast. This 
evening, a marine layer should redevelop and bring stratus back to 
the immediate coastal areas, although the developing upper-level 
ridge should keep the marine layer rather compressed and inland 
stratus development unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

Wash, rinse, and repeat for the next couple days, as the mild ridge 
persists over the West Coast and gives us similar conditions on 
Sunday and Monday, maybe a couple degrees cooler in the Bay Area as 
onshore flow strengthens. The ridge then builds into the 
Thanksgiving holiday, keeping fair conditions in the forecast and 
raising temperatures around a few degrees by Thanksgiving, which 
might end up being the warmest day of the 7-day forecast. 

There hasn't been much change in the prognosis in the pattern change 
coming towards the end of the week as an upper level trough
approaches the western United States. The forecast uncertainty 
remains very high, with "boom" scenarios of a prolific rainfall 
and "bust" scenarios of no appreciable precipitation and light 
offshore winds are still in play. As the previous forecaster 
noted, confidence that there will be *a* storm system in the 
western United States is high, exemplified by a high- amplitude 
ridge over the eastern Pacific into Alaska and northwestern 
Canada, but confidence on where it will set up and its impacts to 
the region remain low. One other thing to mention is that with the
upcoming Thanksgiving weekend, even if the most impactful effects
from this system do miss the Bay Area and Central Coast, 
potential holiday travel plans may be impacted, particularly for 
those heading out east for the extended holiday. Stay tuned to the
forecast updates over the next several days, as we refine what 
exactly is going to happen with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions have returned to most terminals as of this morning. 
Onshore winds will increase early afternoon before diminishing after 
sunset and across the Bay Area Terminals early Sunday morning. There 
is moderate confidence for the North Bay to see IFR/LIFR early 
Sunday morning with lower confidence for the Bay Area Terminals. Low 
to moderate confidence for MVFR/IFR (potentially lowering to LIFR) 
around the Monterey Bay terminals early Sunday morning. Onshore 
winds increase by Sunday afternoon with gradual clearing by late 
morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by 
this early afternoon and persist through about 04Z Sunday. There is 
moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities to return 
around 12Z Sunday with slightly higher probabilities for IFR/LIFR at 
KOAK. However, cannot rule out IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities 
over KSFO early Sunday morning just before sunrise and slightly 
after. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by Sunday afternoon 
with clearing skies. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase 
this afternoon before diminishing after sunset. Moderate confidence 
for MVFR/IFR (potentially lower to LIFR) around 12Z Sunday. 
Expecting any low clouds/reduced visibilities to improve after
18Z.  

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

Moderate seas continue into early Sunday morning with high
pressure building over our area and long period northwesterly
swell leading to hazardous marine conditions. Wave heights ease
through the middle of the upcoming week, increasing by the end of
the week into next weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A 
long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk 
for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 
feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run 
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over 
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and 
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ510.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 22 12:30:02 PST 2025