FXUS66 KMTR 272139
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
139 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

 - Light rain returns tonight across the North Bay and portions of
   the Bay Area. Up to 0.5" of rain across the North Bay and up to
   0.1" across portions of the Bay Area

 - Warm, dry weather and weak offshore flow return by Wednesday
   afternoon and continue through late week

 - Beach Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves 
   and riptides Wednesday night through Friday Morning
&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

An approaching shortwave upper level trough and weak surface cold 
front will reach the Bay Area late this evening. This will bring a 
return of light rain to the North Bay and portions of the East Bay 
and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula. As of 12PM this afternoon, 
KMUX has been transitioned back into precipitation mode with the 
first echoes showing up over the outer coastal waters. Folks across 
the North Bay will start to see some light rain/drizzle this 
evening. Light rain will take longer to extend into the rest of the 
Bay Area with the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula not 
seeing any rain until the overnight hours. Precipitation totals 
increased slightly with this afternoon's forecast package compared 
to the overnight package. The highest totals are in the North Bay 
coastal mountains where up to 0.50" of rain are possible. Across the 
rest of the North Bay rainfall totals will be between 0.15-0.25" and 
up to 0.10" are possible across the East Bay and San Francisco/San 
Mateo Peninsula. The HRRR is in agreement with slightly higher 
precipitation totals from this cold frontal passage and shows a few 
showers developing farther south over the Monterey Peninsula. This 
is mostly worth noting since the NBM does not show showers extending 
that far south. If an isolated shower or two does develop along the 
Central Coast, accumulations will be minimal with a trace up to a 
few hundredths of an inch possible. Winds across the higher 
elevations will increase slightly as cold frontal passage occurs 
with gusts peaking around 25 mph. Rain showers clear out by 10/11AM 
on Wednesday with skies gradually clearing through Wednesday 
afternoon. Morning temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low 
to mid 40s, while afternoon temperatures warm into the 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Upper level ridging and dry conditions return by late Wednesday and 
continue through remainder of the week. The rest of the week will 
follow a similar trend as last week with chilly mornings and warm 
afternoons. Most locations will stay in the 60s during the day but 
the warmest interior locations (e.g. Salinas Valley and interior 
Central Coast) will reach the low to mid 70s. Long range guidance is 
showing the potential for an upper level trough to reach the West 
Coast late weekend into early next week. This will both cool 
temperatures down and bring a slight potential for rain back to the 
forecast. Ensemble guidance does show about half of the models 
indicating a few tenths of an inch of rain while the other half show 
no rain at all. Rain is most likely across the North Bay with 
chances decreasing the farther south you go. At this moment it 
remains possible we will see at least some rain towards the end of 
the long term forecast but confidence is mixed. Looking way out into 
the future - ensemble guidance is trying to produce some 
precipitation throughout the first part of February but no clear 
consensus currently exists.

With the upcoming week shaping up to be warm and sunny, beachgoers 
should exercise caution. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 
9PM Wednesday to 9AM Friday. There will be an increased risk of 
sneaker waves and rip currents along the entire Pacific Coastline 
from Sonoma County to Monterey County. For more details see the 
Beaches Section below.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mostly VFR conditions across the region at this hour. As a weak 
frontal boundary approaches the region look for conditions to 
deteriorate around mid afternoon across the North Bay and then 
late this evening and overnight across the Bay Area terminals. At 
this time, mostly MVFR conditions are expected over this region 
with fog returning early Wednesday morning at STS and LVK. Looking
less likely MRY and SNS will receive anything more than VCSH and 
brief MVFR conditions this evening and into early Wednesday 
morning. VFR conditions are expected by Wednesday afternoon in 
wake of the frontal passage. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through around 03Z 
Wednesday when conditions become more likely to reduce to MVFR as 
rain showers move across the region. A greater probability will be
in the 06-09Z Wednesday timeframe for MVFR (temporary IFR if and 
when RA is present) as the main rain band is forecast to move 
across the terminals. MVFR will persist through about 18Z 
Wednesday before improving to VFR as skies clear in wake of the 
passing frontal boundary.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mostly VFR through the TAF period. 
Drainage winds (southeasterly) once again at SNS will become 
onshore by this afternoon. A weakening frontal boundary will 
approach late this evening increasing the probability for MVFR 
conditions. However, confidence is only moderate at this time. 
There is greater probability for VFR conditions by 18Z Wednesday. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 850 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail over most of the
waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west today through
early Wednesday morning. This will bring light rain to the
northern coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will be
moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous
conditions for small craft. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch
to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through
Tuesday, but build rough to very rough Wednesday night.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Long period swells with low wave  heights begin to arrive on 
Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while 
periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach 
Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09 
AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19 
feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through Friday 
     morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jan 27 16:30:03 PST 2026