FXUS66 KMTR 030714
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1214 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

 - Marine layer will remain in place each day, retreating to the
   coast for many each afternoon. Under such conditions,
   temperatures will remain seasonally cool along the coast with 
   a slight warmup for inland locations. 

 - A brief cooldown will be seen at the start of the upcoming work
   week, with a warmup expected in the middle of next week. There
   will be low-end chances for some inland locations to see
   Moderate (orange) HeatRisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1205 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026
(Today and Saturday)

Upper trough over the West Coast breaks down early on Friday, with a 
brief period of weak flow aloft. As we progress through the day on 
Friday, we will start to see height rise over the area, with warming 
temperatures aloft. Marine layer will remain in place for most 
coastal locations, with some breaks allowing for the sun to peak 
through. Although, with the marine layer and onshore winds in place, 
temperatures will be similar to previous days in the 60s. Inland 
areas will see some warming compared to previous days, with some 
locations seeing a 3-5 degree increase compared to Thursday. 
Overall, a pleasant day is ahead of us with Minor (yellow) 
HeatRisk for inland locations and Low (green) along the coast. 

Saturday, we will see similar conditions with slight height rises 
continuing through the day. This will once again result in slightly 
warmer conditions through the afternoon hours for inland locations, 
generally seeing a 1-3 degree increase compared to Friday. This 
would bring inland locations closer to the mid 80s, with some 
reaching the upper 80s. Coastal locations will largely remain in the 
low-mid 60s. One of the more notable changes is the increase in 
cloud cover through the afternoon hours on Saturday, especially for 
locations south of San Francisco. While there will be the chance for 
mostly clear conditions earlier in the day, the forecast will trend 
towards mostly cloudy skies by mid afternoon. This may lead to some 
fluctuations in the forecast high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1205 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026
(Sunday through Thursday)

Sunday through Monday, we will see a weak upper shortwave move into 
the area from the southwest. This will bring another period of 
seasonally cool weather to the area. As was seen last week, this 
will result in a persistent marine layer each night/morning, which 
may remain over coastal locations through much of the daytime 
period. Although, some breaks in the clouds will be possible. Breezy 
conditions will also be in place as this wave passes through. 

Tuesday and beyond, a potent wave will start to dig into the Pacific 
Northwest while a ridge starts to build over the California coast or 
just off the coast over the Pacific. There remains uncertainty 
amongst global guidance on where this ridge axis will set up, 
which may result in some subtle forecast differences as we get 
closer. In either case through, we will see height rises over the 
region with warming temperatures aloft. In time, flow over 
California will generally be zonal at 500 hPa. With this pattern 
in mind, it would seem like are are going to enter another warming
regime midweek and beyond , especially for inland locations. CPC 
supports this, indicating favorability for above normal 
temperatures over the region. Overall, we are looking at mid-upper
80s for interior locations, with some in the low 90s not out of 
question. While not a large signal at this time, there will be the
chance for isolated inland locations to see Moderate (orange) 
HeatRisk conditions through this stretch. Otherwise, much of the 
area will range from Low (green) to Minor (yellow) HeatRisk. This 
will also be a period of breezy conditions, with onshore wind 
gusts between 20 to 25 mph at times. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The stratus is filling in as expected this evening and is
generally coming in a few hundred feet lower than yesterday at
this time. This may bring some more IFR conditions tonight. Clouds
are expected to push back to the coast again Friday afternoon much
like today. Onshore west/southwest winds will increase once again
Friday afternoon, becoming breezy at the usual wind-prone 
terminals, although in general they look slightly lighter than 
today. Stratus will redevelop overnight with the return of 
MVFR/IFR ceilings to some terminals. Ceilings may continue to  
lower Friday night as high pressure builds in.

Vicinity of SFO...Tonight generally expect conditions to be 
persistent and skies to remain VFR. However there is a 30 percent 
chance of clouds below 2000 feet briefly towards morning. VFR 
along with breezy west/southwest winds are expected in the 
afternoon. Friday night the probability of CIGS returning at SFO
increase to around 50 percent. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus has started to develop in the 
hills east of KOAK and this is expected to spread down into the 
terminal again tonight. These may drop into IFR category towards 
morning. VFR conditions are expected to return in the morning 
along with the typical west to southwest winds. For SJC, drainage
southeast winds through around 21Z, then becoming northwest. 
Redevelopment of MVFR or IFR ceilings at OAK is likely again
Friday night. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR Ceilings have returned and these may
drop for a period of time to IFR towards morning. Gusty onshore 
winds are expected to return in the afternoon with skies becoming VFR
late morning or midday again. The stratus is expected to return
quickly again Friday evening and could come in IFR or close to it. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 917 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Northwest winds will remain breezy to gusty across the northern
outer waters through early Saturday while winds ease across the
rest of the waters. Seas will abate to become moderate to rough
today and Friday. Winds and seas look to build again into the
middle of the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel 
LONG TERM....Gunkel 
AVIATION...Kidwell 
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 3 00:30:03 PDT 2026