FXUS66 KMTR 042005
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1205 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026

 - Moderate to strong winds along the coast and at higher
   elevations through Saturday

 - Offshore winds bring warmer and drier weather this weekend into
   early part of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1204 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

A dry cold front associated with a low pressure system moving into 
the Pacific Northwest is moving through the Bay Area, with some 
lingering low level clouds across the Bay Area that should dissipate 
through the early afternoon hours. The main forecast issue is the 
breezy winds that will develop through the day today and last for 
the next couple of days, as the low pressure system moves inland and 
turns to the southeast into the Great Basin, strengthening the 
pressure gradient and promoting stronger winds across the region. 
Northwesterly wind gusts today will top out around 20 to 30 mph 
across the valleys, and reach 35 to 45 mph in exposed coastal areas 
and the higher elevations. Overnight, winds will abate in the valley 
regions, but remain breezy and gusty in the coastal and higher 
terrain areas, where wind gusts remain in the 30 to 40 mph range as 
the wind turns to come from the north. This should promote low level 
mixing overnight and thus help to disrupt stratus formation that 
would otherwise occur. On Thursday, the wind gusts will resume from 
the north in the valleys, with gust speeds around the same as those 
seen today.

High temperatures for the next couple of days across the region 
range from the lower to middle 60s in the lower elevations, with 
patches of warm spots in the upper 60s, to the upper 40s and 50s 
across the higher elevations. Low temperatures hover in the upper 
30s to lower 40s away from the immediate coast, where low 
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s persist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1204 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Breezy and gusty winds will continue through Friday and Saturday as 
a branch of the low pressure system retrogrades from the Great Basin 
into the Desert Southwest, before emerging as a cut-off low that 
traverses the northern end of Baja California and pauses just off the 
coast. The interaction between this low and high pressure from the 
eastern Pacific building into the Great Basin will result in an 
inside slider pattern that will continue veering the winds to a 
northeast flow late on Friday into Saturday. For context, as of the 
last available report at 8 AM today, the SFO-WMC gradient was +7.6 
mb (an onshore pressure gradient). The PG&E WRF ensemble model is 
showing this reversing to around -8 mb (offshore) by the latter part 
of Friday into Saturday, with the European and American global 
ensemble models showing a slightly stronger offshore gradient at 
around -10 mb at the same time. Thus, a warming and drying pattern 
is expected where high temperatures rise into the lower to middle 
70s for the valley regions, and even patches along the coast, for 
the upcoming weekend. 

As the eastern Pacific high starts to diminish and the cut-off low 
moves eastwards again, the gradients will relax beginning on Sunday 
and will result in calmer winds heading into the early part of next 
week. Clouds may return to the region as the upper level flow shifts 
to a more zonal pattern, but temperatures remain seasonably warm
and no rain is in sight for the foreseeable future, including 
beyond the 7-day forecast as CPC outlooks suggest that 
temperatures above seasonal averages and precipitation totals 
below seasonal averages are likely towards the middle of March and
ensemble model means show a strong signal for ridging across the 
western United States around this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2026

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions currently across the region this 
morning as a cold front moves across the North Bay and then the 
rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast through this afternoon. In 
wake of the frontal passage, expecting VFR conditions to return 
with an increase in northwesterly late this morning and into the 
early afternoon. Winds diminish slightly late in the evening and 
into Thursday morning before increasing once again by Thursday 
afternoon. There is a potential for low level wind shear Thursday 
morning at APC and LVK, but not high enough confidence for APC as 
surface winds may remain elevated. High confidence for VFR 
conditions through the TAF period. 

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR returning to VFR in wake of the frontal 
passage. North to northwest winds increase with gusts up to 35kt 
this afternoon and potentially lingering into the late evening. 
Winds diminish late in the night and into early Thursday morning 
before increasing once again Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR at MRY returning to VFR in wake of 
the frontal passage. North to northwest winds increase this 
afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt before diminishing late evening. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 908 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2026

A fresh NW breeze will increase to a strong NNW breeze this
afternoon and reach near gale force on Thursday. These winds will
build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet across exposed waters
Thursday through Friday. Conditions will gradually improve through
the weekend as winds diminish and seas subside.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay 
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Thursday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 4 12:30:03 PST 2026