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NWS Technical
Weather Discussion |
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FXUS66 KMTR 090135
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
635 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
- Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part
of next week
- Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday
- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
populations across the interior early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
Low clouds have dissipated across the interior earlier than
yesterday despite the marine layer sitting around 2,000 feet this
morning. As such, temperatures across the interior are forecast to
warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior, in the upper
60s to mid 70s around the San Fransico Bay Shoreline, and upper 50s
to lower 60s in areas that the coastal stratus remains in place
(generally near the coast).
Tonight, expecting less inland intrusion of stratus as the marine
layer compresses and high pressure continues to build in from the
eastern Pacific. There is the potential for mist or light drizzle
again tonight into Saturday morning, yet widespread measurable
rainfall is highly unlikely. We are expecting a few degrees of
warming on Saturday afternoon, especially in the interior where we
are expecting less cloud cover in the morning. However, most
locations across the region will remain in Minor HeatRisk.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
The warming and drying trend will continue through the remainder of
the weekend and are forecast to peak on Monday. This is when will
see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. However,
the moderate risk has less areal coverage compared to yesterday's
forecast. This is as we are expecting weaker high pressure aloft and
greater presences of a marine layer early next week. However, Monday
afternoon is still forecast to be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to
low 90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s
near coastal locations.
Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will
still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling
trend is forecast to continue through the remainder of next week
with temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages as a more zonal
flow returns as the ridge shifts eastward. There remains some
uncertainty beyond the middle of next week as model solutions
diverge. Be sure to check back for the latest developments in the
forecast as we head into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear skies across much of
the region, with stratus clinging to portions of the coastline.
Majority of the TAF sites are currently VFR, the exceptions being
KHAF, KSFO, and KMRY. The North Bay valley have a decent shot at
staying VFR through the TAF cycle, as weak offshore flow occurs.
Opted to only hint at the possibility for some lower cigs at KAPC
and kept the pessimistic forecast of stratus coming in at KSTS
early tomorrow morning. If guidance and observations continue to
support the offshore flow, it's quite possible North Bay terminals
remain VFR through tomorrow morning. HAF will remain MVFR until
late morning Saturday. LAMP guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at
15Z Saturday, though they may roll in an hour early. Moderate NW
winds will ease a bit overnight before picking up again tomorrow
morning.
Vicinity of SFO...The stratus appears to be clinging on to the area
around KSFO for dear life, making the forecast quite tricky. The
question will be, does this stratus let up for a few hours and bring
a stint of VFR hours. If not, expect MVFR cigs through tomorrow
morning. Opted to keep the trend of the previous forecast and
added gusty westerly winds tomorrow afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions expected to return later
tonight with the assistance of moderate westerly winds pushing
the coastal stratus deck onshore. The highest probability of IFR
ceilings developing is around 12-15Z Saturday, though they may
roll in earlier. Winds will remain light through the overnight
hours before picking up in speed by late morning Saturday. The
marine layer is expected to stick around MRY through the TAF
period with SNS expected to scatter out earlier.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 632 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes will continue overnight and
through the remainder of the weekend along with building rough
seas. More northerly breezes develop Sunday and become fresh to
moderate with rough seas beginning to gradually ease late Sunday
into Monday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 8 20:30:02 PDT 2026
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From the National Weather
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Revised:
29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT
(Pacific) |
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