FXUS66 KMTR 142309
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

 - Warming trend continues through the end of the work week with
   above normal temperatures peaking Friday

 - Coastal Flooding Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM today
   for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay

 - Elevated fire weather conditions due to moderate offshore flow
   and very dry conditions across the higher elevations mid to
   late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)

Weak offshore flow today offers little to see on satellite with 
bright sunny skies area wide. Offshore ridging over the EPAC is 
helping to lift temperatures to near normal for most locations 
today. We're seeing breezy winds across higher elevations, that 
have peaked between 20-25 MPH so far this afternoon. We're not 
expecting winds to exceed those speeds for the remainder of the 
day. While we don't have a a FWW or RFW out, we are messaging 
elevated fire weather concerns across our area, especially where 
the gustiest winds are at higher elevation locations in the North 
Bay and East Bay Hills due to critically dry fuels today and 
through the remainder of the week. Expect another night of clear 
skies as offshore erodes any marine layer influence overnight. 
Radiational cooling with the clear skies will result in some cool
spots in interior valley locations, while at higher elevations 
we'll see warmer spots from thermal belting above 1000ft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)

Elevated to near critical fire concerns continue through the 
remainder of the week into the beginning of the weekend on Saturday 
with similar warm, dry and windy conditions especially at higher 
elevations. The offshore flow, thermal belting and warmer daytime 
temperatures will result in continued poor overnight recovery and 
even worse daytime retention through Saturday across the interior. 
By Sunday, a notable pattern change will shift us back to widespread 
onshore flow, while a cold front drops temperatures considerably by 
Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week. The trough 
associated with the pattern change will also bring increasing 
chances for scattered light rain beginning later Monday into 
Tuesday. The position of the upper level low dropping out of the 
Gulf of Alaska will determine where the most rain falls, currently 
focused primarily on the Central Coast with less than a 0.25" 
between late Monday and Wednesday expected at most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some 
high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing 
tonight. Low confidence in model output that shows HAF getting fog 
and low stratus tonight. If it does happen, the most likely period 
for development would be 03-07Z before offshore winds mix out the 
lower layers. Gentle to moderate onshore winds will continue through 
the evening hours, with light winds overnight before a moderate 
offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle 
onshore flow developing in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. 
Moderate northwest winds continue into the evening hours, with light 
winds overnight turning offshore Thursday morning before moderate 
northwest flow resumes in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals... Moderate to high confidence of VFR through 
the TAF period. Gentle to moderate northwest winds persist into the 
evening hours, with light to gentle offshore winds overnight before 
the moderate northwest flow resumes Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Seas will continue to subside through the night with moderate
seas expected for the offshore zones through the week while
nearshore waters observe moderate to slight seas. During this time
frame gentle to fresh northerly breezes persist. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to
building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for 
the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main 
areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and 
East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay 
Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 
45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will 
be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally 
higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both 
areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined 
with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to 
the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Oct 14 18:30:03 PDT 2026