FXUS66 KMTR 281900
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
   persist into the middle of the week

 - Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
   work week

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
   Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

The weather pattern across California is generally dominated by 
troughing across the Western United States which will promote 
seasonally cool temperatures along with gusty northwest winds during 
the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures today will range 
from the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the inland valleys, up to 
the upper 80s in the warmest spots of southern Monterey County, the 
upper 60s to upper 70s close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 
60s along the Pacific coast. Wind gusts will reach the 20 to 30 mph 
range this afternoon and evening along the coast, through gaps and 
passes, within the Salinas Valley, and at favored ridgelines. 

Tonight through Monday, a smaller-scale low pressure system breaks 
away from the upper level trough near Oregon and travels southwards 
paralleling the coast, reaching the vicinity of the SF Bay Area by 
Monday afternoon. Lows on Monday morning will hover in the upper 40s 
and the 50s, and some stratus development is possible along the 
coast from San Mateo County southward, inland across the Monterey 
bay region into the Salinas Valley and the Morgan Hill-Hollister 
corridor, and portions of the East Bay west of the Berkeley-San 
Leandro Hills. Daytime highs on Monday should be largely similar to 
those seen today, with perhaps a few degrees of warming in the 
interior North and East Bays and a few degrees of cooling across the 
warmest spots of southern Monterey County.

The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night 
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and 
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the 
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will 
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical 
tide. Around 0.7 feet of inundation over normally dry ground (6.49 
ft MLLW) is forecast at high tide at the San Francisco tide gauge at 
around 10:55 PM tonight. In addition, long-period southerly swell 
will continue to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents along the Pacific coast, particularly at south and 
southwest facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in 
effect through Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more 
details. Never turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

Troughing continues to impact the region into the middle of the week 
with highs in the inland valleys hovering near to around 10 degrees 
below the seasonal averages, ranging in the middle 70s to the middle 
80s through Thursday. A more robust marine layer could deck should 
develop Monday night through Tuesday morning, and will mix out into 
the afternoons before building back each evening and overnight. 

The trough begins to fill in Thursday and Friday, and more zonal 
flow is expected for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual 
warming trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the 
beginning of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement 
towards a ridge building up across the Western United States, with 
the interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern 
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for 
our region, still to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds increase across the 
region into the afternoon becoming moderate to breezy. Winds will 
reduce into the night, becoming light for most areas into Monday 
morning. Cloud cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the 
late night with MVFR CIGs. This cloud cover erodes into the mid 
morning on Monday, leading to widespread VFR again.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west winds 
build into the mid afternoon with gusts around 22kts expected. Gusts 
cut off into the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to 
become light into early Monday with breezy west winds returning that 
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Expect moderate 
winds to build in the afternoon across the area with gusty conditions 
affecting SNS. Winds reduce into the evening as come low clouds 
begin to flow through the area. MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals 
into the late night. These CIGs look to erode into late Monday 
morning at SNS and slightly beyond the TAF period for MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Strong northwest winds will continue to result in hazardous seas
for small craft across the waters well into the work week. Gale
force gusts will continue over the northern outer waters until
early monday morning before winds reduce. Long period southwest
swell will persist through the extended forecast.

&&

.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell 
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves 
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically 
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of 
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will 
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially 
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being 
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the 
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if 
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 28 16:30:03 PDT 2026