FXUS66 KMTR 110821
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
121 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026

 - Showers last through much of Saturday with storm chances
   rebuilding into the afternoon

 - More consistent and widespread rain arrives Saturday night 
   along with widespread gusty winds

 - Showers and storm chances linger into late Sunday before a
   warming and drying trend arrives into the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(Today and tonight)

Convection for the Bay Area and Central Coast have eased and the 
atmosphere continues to stabilize and cool. Passing showers will 
continue through the night, but rainfall and localized winds look to 
be much more reasonable than the afternoon cells.

Shower activity reduces slightly into the late night, but widespread 
off and on showers are still expected. The warming from the sunrise 
and the warm sector of the next low pressure will increase mixing in 
the morning, leading to slight increases for more convective cells. 
Storm chances will continue to build into the afternoon and look to 
hit their peak in the late afternoon and early evening. The near-
coast marine environment shows around 35% chance for storms with 20 
to 30% for areas overland.

These storm chances reduce as the next cold front moves through the 
area, with a fairly narrow and well-organized rain band moves 
through the region that evening and into the night. Southerly winds 
become gusty just head of the front peaking around 30 mph and some 
gusts around 45 mph will be possible, but luckily short-lived. Winds 
reduce quickly in the post frontal environment, but remain moderate 
to breezy through that night. Post-frontal showers and light chances 
for spotty storms will last through Saturday night. Additionally 
chances for flurries and possible dustings of snow will be possible 
on the highest peaks as much colder air aloft pushes into the region.
&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

Chances for scattered storms increase again into Sunday as 
conditions warm into the afternoon. These chances may become a bit 
more limited due to the increasing cloud cover in the recent 
forecast updates and the overall colder flow entering the region, 
but will still be a possibility. Highs look to peak in the 50s and 
60s for most areas on Sunday, with a few higher elevations failing 
to break 50. Shower and storm chances ease that night with some 
coastal drizzle possible into early Monday.


Overall remaining rain totals look impressive for this late in the 
season: 

-Some of the higher coastal peaks are still looking at 2 inches of 
additional rainfall, even 3 in a few isolated area. 

-Most of the North Bay is looking around an inch to 1.5" and around 
2" in the interior mountains.

-The lower elevations around the the SF Bay and Monterey Bay will 
range from 0.75" to 1.10". Higher interior elevations 1.25" to 1.75"

-The lowest rainfall totals look to be the Southern Salinas Valley
 at 0.20" to 0.50"

Keep in mind, these totals could be massively affected by locally 
stronger storms, and the possibility of lines of showers and storms 
training over certain areas.



After the low pressure, storm environment, and the last few chances 
for precip exit, the forecast calms significantly. Temperatures warm 
slowly into the next work week, but with a fair amount of onshore 
flow keeping things seasonable. Longer term models show chances for 
another trough passing through in the late week, but some place it 
more inland. This difference in positioning can mean the difference 
between some drizzle and light rain, to increased offshore flow if 
the trough is more inland. So something to keep an eye on after all 
of the excitement this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers persist across the region, some 
rather strong in the North and East Bay, with low end VFR-MVFR 
conditions across the terminals. The forecast tonight is rather 
difficult with convective activity playing a huge role in the 
current uncertainties in the forecast. The southwest winds will 
diminish somewhat across the terminals through the night, with some 
shower activity persisting through Saturday morning. Southwesterly 
winds will increase on Saturday as a narrow cold frontal rain band 
(NCFR) passes through the region in the evening hours. As the band 
comes through, the most intense winds are expected with gusts of 30-
35 kt or more possible, especially along the coast and through 
favored gaps. Behind the NCFR, shower activity continues through 
Sunday morning. 

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings and shower activity continue 
through the overnight period, with ceilings lifting to VFR 
after sunrise. Winds will come from the southwest through the TAF 
period, with the winds dramatically strengthening through Saturday 
afternoon and evening as the narrow cold frontal rain band 
approaches and passes through the terminal. Wind gusts of 35 kt or 
above as the NCFR passes can not be ruled out. Winds will slightly 
diminish once the NCFR passes, with showers continuing around the 
terminal area.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions with mid- to high level 
cloud cover and scattered showers through the next couple of hours. 
MVFR conditions are possible overnight, with VFR conditions 
returning after sunrise. Showers will come into the region on  
Saturday morning, with the narrow cold frontal rain band expected to 
arrive Saturday evening close to the end of the TAF period. 
Southwest winds expected through the TAF period, with gentle winds
overnight, and breezy winds with strong gusts returning Saturday 
afternoon as the NCFR approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers remain in the forecast tonight. The
next round of precipitation arrives late Saturday into Sunday, as
the next weather system arrives. Increasing winds and rough seas
are expected, with isolated gale force gusts from Point Reyes to
Point Sur. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh
northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to
become moderate through mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this 
     afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Apr 11 02:30:02 PDT 2026