FXUS66 KMTR 142210
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
210 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the next week

 - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys

 - Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific 
   coast beaches 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Sunny sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon 
allowing for temperature to warm into the low to mid 60s across the 
North Bay, lower 60s across the East Bay, mid to upper 60s across 
the South Bay, and up to the low to mid 70s across the Central 
Coast. This is resulting a Low HeatRisk across much of the coastal 
and valley locations across the Central Coast. This all is thanks to 
high pressure aloft and north to northeast (offshore) winds in the 
higher elevations. 

Overnight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the upper 
30s to lower 40s across many of the interior valley locations. 
However, cannot rule out wind sheltered spots dipping down into the 
low to mid 30s, especially in the North Bay valleys, southern 
Salinas Valley, and southern Santa Clara/Hollister valleys. There is 
a medium to high probability for patchy dense fog in the valleys of 
Sonoma County and the West Delta and adjacent inland areas (such as 
Concord). There is also low confidence over the San Francisco Bay 
south of the Bay Bridge overnight and into early Thursday morning. 

Once any fog that does develop overnight and into early Thursday 
morning dissipates, afternoon temperatures will warm by a few 
degrees from today's (Wednesday) as high pressure continues to build 
aloft.  

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 208 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The mid/upper level high pressure aloft will weaken and shift to
the north just off of the Pacific Northwest coast this weekend. 
This will allow for temperatures to stabilize and cool slightly 
over the weekend, yet will stay remain some 5 to 15 degrees above 
seasonal averages. Temperatures cool slight early next week (but
will remain above average) with increased cloud cover across the 
region. However, the high pressure will remain the dominate 
feature aloft.

From previous forecaster: "Model confidence becomes a mess into the 
the last few days of next week. Agreements are fair for the ridge 
pattern to be broken, but the route to that result is differing 
across the models. The GFS models and ensembles have been calling 
for a cutoff low to move through the ridge and break it from the 
inside, which is certainly rare to see. Other longer term models 
show variations of a decaying ridge pattern as two stronger troughs 
build to the north. Either way, this does eventually call for some 
chances for rain to return in the last week of January. Though the 
path to get there and the magnitude of the rain still is a matter of 
debate."

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Quiet and VFR conditions prevail across the CWA this 
morning and should continue to hold through much of the forecast 
period. Models are ambitious again for the overnight hours and 
Wednesday morning forecast, but opted to not be as aggressive as 
yesterday's TAF and kept visibility reductions to KSTS and KAPC 
based on the observations we have had so far today and the continued 
offshore flow. 

Vicinity of SFO...Offshore winds will prevail today, with VFR 
conditions holding through the forecast period. Given offshore flow 
looks to hold, opted to avoid adding any reduced visibility since we 
remained in VFR overnight. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and mainly offshore 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail today. Winds
will veer to become offshore Thursday through Saturday before
northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through
the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the
waters where rough seas will briefly build in today into
tomorrow.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches
this morning and persist through tomorrow. Hazards include 
sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves. 
Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge 
much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware. 
They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy 
debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting
beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be 
deadly with sea surface temperatures in the 54 to 57 degrees 
range. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside 
infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn 
your back on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/Murdock
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jan 14 14:30:02 PST 2026