FXUS66 KMTR 061142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
442 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

 - Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming
   and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday

 - Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible
   Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream
cirrus clouds otherwise it's clear. Large scale mid to upper level 
low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale
500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey 
that'll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short
wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and
with the Sep sun angle it'll result in a warming trend beginning 
Monday Labor Day. 

Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal 
North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening. 

Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of 
time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday 
as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will 
include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along 
the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53
PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include 
messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will 
continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few
areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and
Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler.  

Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing  
over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance
continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper 
level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to 
our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even 
drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The marine layer remains mixed out this evening with clear skies
across the majority of the region. Patchy stratus has pushed its
way into the SF Bay over SFO and is heading towards OAK with clear
skies in the North Bay promoting fog development. There is some
potential for stratus to reach LVK this morning but confidence is
on the lower end. Otherwise, anticipating SJC, MRY, and SNS
generally staying clear this morning. Breezy onshore winds return
this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 25 knots possible
at favored airports. Winds decrease overnight with another night
of low confidence in the stratus forecast. The marine layer is
attempting to redevelop again tonight but it may hold off until
Monday night. As such, have included some potential for stratus
around 12Z at OAK/SFO with stratus chances increasing for other
coastal airports after the end of this TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has developed over the SF Bay and SFO
resulting in MVFR CIGs. Moderate confidence in stratus persisting
through 16Z but it may clear slightly earlier depending on how
fast the stratus bank over the bay breaks up. Gusty westerly winds
redevelop this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 25 knots
expected. Low confidence in tonight's stratus forecast with
chances increasing between 09 to 12Z tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Patchy MVFR stratus is impacting the SFO
Bridge approach and will linger through late this morning.
Clearing times should be similar to SFO, approx. 16Z, but there is
some potential for CIGs over the bay to clear faster than those
over the airport. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are
expected over the bay with gusts to around 25 knots this
afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low confidence that stratus or fog will
reach MRY and SNS this morning. Models continue to overestimate
stratus development in the Monterey Bay region with satellite
showing no real fog development in the vicinity. Breezy onshore
winds return this afternoon between 10 to 15 knots. Wind
decrease again overnight with stratus chances increasing after
09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh
with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts
are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and
within the Golden Gate channel. Winds decrease everywhere except
the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to
prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell
associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will
continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the 
swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast.
Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all 
directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long 
period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a 
boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push 
much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the 
chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this 
weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and 
their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker 
waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. 
As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty 
nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're 
not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel 
to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be 
prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back 
on the ocean.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 
     nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Sep 6 06:30:03 PDT 2026