FXUS66 KMTR 250612
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1112 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

 - Slightly above normal temperatures persist into the weekend

 - Increasing potential for light rain returning early to mid 
   next week

 - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior 
   Mountains Thursday into Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Tonight through Thursday)

Satellite shows some high level clouds moving over the North Bay 
with stratus building in across the coastal waters. An upper level 
trough will push through southern California today which, in 
combination with a weak cold frontal passage this afternoon, will 
deepen our marine layer to around 750-1000 ft. There is some 
potential for stratus to develop along our coast tonight but high 
resolution guidance suggests the stratus bank will be relatively 
progressive with cloud cover dissipating almost as quickly as it 
develops. Temperatures remain cool overnight with lows in the 40s to 
50s.

Slightly cooler high temperatures are expected today as a weak 
surface cold front moves through the Bay Area. This will keep 
interior temperatures in the 70s and coastal temperatures in the 
60s. The interior Central Coast continues to be on the warmer side 
with high temperatures in the low 80s. It is expected to be a dry 
cold frontal passage with no potential for precipitation across the 
region. However, it will bring locally gustier onshore winds across 
the marine environment, the coastline, and across the higher 
elevations. Winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria but will be 
between 20-30 mph along the coast and 25-35 mph across the higher 
elevations. The strongest winds largely remain over the coastal 
waters where gale force winds are expected. If you are looking to go 
out on the ocean this week be aware that winds, particularly across 
the outer waters, will make conditions hazardous for small boats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Heading into Thursday, upper level ridging redevelops across the 
West Coast. At the surface high pressure builds in over the Pacific 
Northwest and gradually spreads into the Intermountain West. The SFO-
WMC pressure gradient shifts from positive (onshore winds) to 
negative (offshore winds) as this occurs Wednesday night into 
Thursday. The SFO-WMC gradient is forecast to reach -10 to -11 mb on 
Thursday which correlates to moderate offshore winds. Forecast wind 
gusts are expected to peak between 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts will be 
strongest strongest over the higher elevations with winds peaking 
along the ridgelines of the North Bay Interior Mountains. Offshore 
winds bring drier and warmer conditions so expect RH values to drop 
across the higher terrain on Thursday. Larger fuels are drying but, 
for now, they remain decently moist from rain over the past few 
months. Smaller fine fuels (grass) are drying at a faster rate due 
to the recent abnormally hot weather. The overall fire risk remains 
low at this time but remember to exercise caution given the drying 
of fine fuels. High temperatures on Thursday warm by a few degrees 
but largely stay in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior and 
60s along the coast.

Temperatures Friday into the weekend will look fairly similar to 
Thursday but may fluctuate slightly as we get closer in time. Sunday 
into Monday a deep upper level trough will reach the West Coast and 
start to push inland. Cluster guidance maintains some uncertainty as 
to when this trough will arrive. All clusters show the trough just 
offshore on Monday and Tuesday with it pushing inland closer to 
Wednesday/Thursday. Rain chances increase starting Tuesday with 
light rain to return across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is 
too far out to talk rainfall totals but ensembles are generally 
supporting between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain next week. Temperatures are 
also expected to cool down Monday and Tuesday with highs dropping 
into the 60s to 70s on Monday and widespread 50s to 60s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. Low probability (20% or less) for
sub-VFR conditions to return to the terminals tonight with the
exception of HAF which is expected to be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.
Diurnal winds will prevail with gusty conditions developing 
tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High
confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Stratus may
begin to sneak through the Golden Gate Gap as early as 09Z, but
confidence is low that it will reach the terminal. If a ceiling 
were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. 
Strong westerly winds will develop tomorrow, with about a 40% 
chance for gusts to reach or exceed 35 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY
and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing 
through the TAF period. If a ceiling were to develop, it would 
likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR in the mid-to-late morning hours.
Diurnal winds will prevail, with gusty conditions developing 
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Widespread hazardous conditions return tomorrow in the form of
strong to near gale northerly breezes. Gale force gusts should be
expected across the inner waters and outer waters with bays
experiencing conditions hazardous to small craft. Seas will build
to  become rough to very rough as a result. Conditions will slowly
improve Friday and into the weekend with moderate northerly
breezes  and moderate seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 25 02:30:03 PDT 2026