FXUS66 KMTR 030857
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1257 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
   Thursday through Saturday

 - Light to moderate rain across North Bay tonight through
   Tuesday; light rain across rest of Bay Area

 - Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
   warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

 - Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
(Today and Tonight )

Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low
pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to 
the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night.
Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is
expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area
after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and
moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The
farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central
Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest 
across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay
and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the 
remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.

The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for
thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal
waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This 
will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and
favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear 
parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote 
the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern
would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low
moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty
quick.

Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the
CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term 
forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker 
from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday 
and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially 
be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower 
70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or 
10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to 
cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.

Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot
can happen between now and then, but early indications show the 
storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of 
November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and 
above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much 
more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region.
Be sure to follow for future updates.

Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another
round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through
Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR except for a few areas of hazy/haze /MVFR-IFR/ conditions in the 
East Bay continues tonight then cloud ceilings will steadily lower 
to MVFR Tuesday with showers developing mainly Tuesday up through 
frontal passage Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud ceilings
and showers developing Tuesday. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 knots
tonight and Tuesday morning then shifting to southwesterly 12 to 
22 knots 19z Tuesday then becoming light and variable Tuesday 
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud
ceilings and showers Tuesday. Light and variable to light 
southeasterly winds tonight and Tuesday. Wind shifting to 
westerly near 10 knots late Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1141 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

Seas will continue to build across the outer waters tonight
through Wednesday morning, becoming rough and bringing hazardous
conditions for small craft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly
breezes will increase and back tonight to become moderate to fresh
southwesterly breezes ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain
moves in Tuesday with this system, bringing with it a 15-20%
chance of thunderstorms north of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh
northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches 
Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell 
will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip 
currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, 
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay 
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. 
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your 
back on the ocean!

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 3 02:30:03 PST 2026