FXUS66 KMTR 050701
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1201 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

 - Isolated showers possible through the morning

 - Cooler temperatures today and Monday before a warming trend
   arrives for the second half of the week

 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before
   retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
(Today and tonight)

Stratus is expanding across the coastal regions and into the 
valleys, but high clouds associated with elevated moisture are 
making it nearly impossible to track the stratus. Radar echoes are 
coming in above San Luis Obispo County into southern Monterey 
County. However, there haven't been a lot of reports of rain at the 
surface , although Paso Robles Airport did report light rain 
starting around 1015 PM. The 00Z (5 PM) sounding from Vandenberg 
SFB, in addition to aircraft-derived soundings at OAK and SFO, 
reveal the main thing keeping the surface generally dry is a layer 
of very dry air starting just above the marine layer inversion at 
1500-2000 feet up to around 6000-7000 feet above sea level. Within 
the layer, dew points as low as -10 degrees Celsius, or 14 degrees 
Fahrenheit, were observed, while air temperatures in the middle to 
upper 60s were reported, corresponding to relative humidity values 
around 12 to 13%. Based on the observed conditions, some showers 
coming across the Central Coast and Bay Area can't be ruled out 
through the rest of the night through around noon, and I have opted 
to put a wide area of slight shower chances (10-15% probability) 
through the aforementioned area, although note that showers are 
expected to be isolated to widely isolated. As for convective 
chances, they are expected to be very small, nearly negligible, as 
limited instability and a lack of lifting mechanisms will tamp down 
chances for thunderstorms.

Today should see a cooldown with a shortwave trough coming through 
the state. High temperatures will range from the middle 70s to the 
lower 80s in the inland valleys, up to the upper 80s to lower 90s in 
the warmest interior spots, the middle 60s to the middle 70s near 
the Bays, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. 
Stratus coverage should retreat to the immediate coast this 
afternoon, along with a clearing of the higher clouds as the pulse 
of moisture moves on. Breezy onshore pattern winds should develop in 
the afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through 
gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley.
&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

The long term outlook continues to show a balance between ridging 
across the Western United States and a series of troughs in the 
eastern Pacific through the next few days. Monday will not have a 
chance for showers, but otherwise conditions should be similar to 
today. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures 
will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into 
the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday 
through Friday when local temperature gradients range from the lower 
to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s 
in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the 
warmest spots of southern Monterey County. Beyond the 7-day outlook, 
ensemble model cluster analysis is generally in line with the ridge 
axis paring back to the Intermountain West for the upcoming weekend 
(July 11 to 12), which would support a return to conditions similar 
to those expected for the next couple of days, while CPC outlooks 
lean towards temperatures remaining above the seasonal average 
through the month of July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Stratus is moving back in this evening and has already made it to
some of the terminals. It is expected to continue to expand
overnight bringing mainly IFR conditions with some local areas of
LIFR. Generally CIGS are expected to be similar in height to 
early Saturday morning. Sunday the clearing is expected to be 
similar as well with most sites clearing by mid to late morning. 
The immediate coast will likely remain MVFR with only a few short
breaks expected in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...SCT-BKN high clouds continue through tonight and
likely into Sunday. Stratus is expected to return around 08Z
tonight, although the high clouds are making it difficult to
monitor. Clearing may be slightly later than on Saturday, but
still expect VFR conditions by 17 or 18Z. Breezy onshore winds 
are expected once again in the afternoon near 20 kts at times. 
Sunday night the MVFR CIGS (locally IFR) are expected to return 
from around 07-18z once again with moderate confidence in cig 
timing.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...SCT-BKN high clouds through the period.  
IFR (locally LIFR) cigs return near or after 02z Sun, clearing is
expected again Sunday mid to late in the morning with moderate 
confidence in timing. Breezy onshore winds are expected again
Sunday afternoon near 15 kts at times. Sunday evening a quick
return of stratus is expected like we have been seeing. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Northerly flow will diminish slowly tonight with gentle to
moderate northerly winds Sunday and into Monday. Winds are
expected to increase by Monday night with fresh to strong breezes
expected Tuesday and through much of the week. Some gusts near
gale or gale force are possible by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MKK
MARINE...MKK

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jul 5 02:30:03 PDT 2026