FXUS66 KMTR 140740
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1240 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

 - Breezy to gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

 - Elevated fire weather conditions this weekend through Monday
   with low RH and windy conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Today and tonight)

Not much in the way of cloud cover overnight with only two little 
blips of clouds, but even those are fading. One of the main things 
at play here driving the clear skies - sfc pressure gradients.  SFO-
ACV is near -6mb, which is standard rule of thumb to keep stratus 
outside of SF Bay/SFO.  SFO-WMC is near 2mb and is forecast to 
become negative by sunrise with a stronger offshore component and
not just northerly. 

For Thursday day, given warming 850mb temps, rising H5, and offshore 
flow expect a gradual warm up under sunny skies. About a 5 to 10 
deg warm up over Wednesday and trending above normal for mid-May.
Highs will be 60s/70s bays/coast and 80s to near 90 inland. Will 
say offshore flow does ease through the day and expect onshore to 
kick in again with an afternoon onshore gusty push. 

Thursday night - onshore flow lingers at the immediate sfc, but 
higher elevations begin to shift offshore again with drier air 
working in. Could see some patchy coastal stratus, but a solid 
marine layer is looking less likely. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

Friday will feature one additional day of warming as temps tick 
upwards a few more degrees. Still above normal, but nothing too 
crazy and HeatRisk remains Minor. The bigger story for Friday will
be the winds. SFO-ACV gradient ramps again and this time 
near -7mb. That will bring some very gusty winds over the coastal
waters making for a hazardous marine environment. Additionally, 
winds increase along the immediate coast and the higher terrain.

Over the weekend winds remain high and get a helping hand from a
passing upper level trough through the PacNw/NorCal. This feature
also pauses the warming trend for Sat/Sun. The passing trough
finally deepens into a low Sun/Mon across the Great Basin. Pattern
recognition shows this is decent for offshore push by early
Monday. Hi-res guidance ramps up the SFO-WMC gradient to -11mb.
That will translate to weakening N-S winds along the coast and
coastal waters and increasing winds over the N Bay Mts and E Bay 
Hills. Borderline for Wind Adv Sun night/Mon AM as winds look to 
remain over the higher peaks. It goes with out saying that the
offshore flow will leading to warming temps early next week. Still
not buying the NBM output for max temps, but a return to the 80s
near 90 is plausible. Will likely be warmer at the coast too with
the offshore flow influence. 

Last but not least, interior and higher terrain areas will see a
noticeable drop in RH beginning Thursday and lasting into next
week. The combo of bursts of wind (N-S and Offshore flow) and low
RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Latest Energy 
Release Component (ERC) charts show an upward trend toward 
critical levels for mid-May. These charts are taking into account 
temp/rh, but not wind. 

Recapping - roller coaster for temperatures the next few days. 
Winds increase and remain impactful over the coastal waters and 
land. RH will decrease both day and night with a marked drying 
trend.
 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR is expected to prevail for all but the Monterey Bay terminals
through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for MVFR cigs at
the Bay Area terminals but confidence is too low for mentioning in
the TAF. Coastal terminals should expect breezy to gusty onshore
flow to pick up once again by late Thursday morning into the
afternoon. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF 
period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing in the pre-
dawn hours but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF
attm. Gusty onshore flow will develop once again Thursday morning
through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same timing as SFO for gusty onshore flow to
develop in the morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is gradually developing in
vicinity of both KMRY and KSNS at time of issuance. Good
confidence in KMRY seeing MVFR cigs after midnight, with lesser
confidence of IFR developing, so left it out of the forecast for
the moment. KSNS is expected to develop MVFR cigs around sunrise
but may develop earlier based on current satellite trends. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

Expect hazardous marine conditions to begin to develop rapidly
later this afternoon, first across our northern outer waters and
quickly spread south. Near gale-force winds tonight and Thursday
morning will become gale-force by the afternoon, with widespread
severe gale-force winds by Friday across our outer waters. Storm
force winds will be possible over the inner water by Friday and
continue into the weekend. The strong winds will drive seas
between 12 to 17 feet. Expect hazardous conditions for mariners
and dangerous conditions for small crafts the weekend into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Mry 
     Bay.

     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for 
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon 
     Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 14 02:30:04 PDT 2026