FXUS66 KMTR 282055
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through
  early midweek

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for
  interior locations through the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East
  Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an
  increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the 
  end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (This evening through 
Wednesday night)

Water vapor imagery continues to show a relatively deep trough of
low pressure situated along the West Coast, with an embedded
shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest at this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the dry slot remains situated over the Central
California, with sunny skies prevailing this afternoon except
along portions of the immediate coast, where the marine layer
remains. As a result, most locations are running similar to or
slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Temperatures today will
depend on location, but expect seasonally warm conditions inland,
and a litter cooler than seasonal along the coast. Onshore winds
are also starting to increase this afternoon, with breezy
conditions continuing through the evening hours, which should 
help moderate temperatures a bit as well. Expect another pleasant
evening and cool overnight conditions prevailing. Between the
predominately clear skies, decreasing winds, and dry air in place,
we should see another night of good radiational cooling. Most
locations will be in the 50s to lower 60s, with the coldest spots
dipping into the upper 40s despite the time of year. Conversely, the
thermal belted regions will struggle to cool once again, with
temperatures remaining in the mid 60s to around 70.

Expect the marine layer to make a pretty widespread return tonight
to the inland valleys, another that next disturbance pushes inland
across the West Coast later tonight and during the day on
Wednesday. Therefore, expect another very pleasant day across the
region on Wednesday, with temperatures similar to if not slightly
warmer than today, especially across the inland areas. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (Thursday through next 
Monday)

High pressure will then start to expand from the Desert Southwest  
into the region on Thursday, and continue to build for Friday and
into the weekend. As a result, even drier and warmer conditions
will prevail, especially across on inland areas. In fact, 
confidence is high that the inland areas will be down right hot, 
with the hottest locations potentially ranging between 100 and 
110. 850 mb temperatures support this, as they appear to warm into
the mid to upper 20 deg C range, peaking on Saturday. The 
confidence for the coastal areas though are moderate at best and 
less clearly defined. Temperatures along the coast will still 
largely be dependent on the marine layer, which should be 
considerably squashed, and the wind regime. While winds over all 
appear to remain relatively light through the period, some weak 
onshore flow looks like it will continue to persist along the 
coast, giving coastals areas some reprieve from the hottest 
temperatures. 

The ensembles remain divergent for Sunday through early next 
week, as to whether the heat will linger longer or finally start
to retreat. At this point in time, like the idea of the NBM, which
kind of splits the difference, with inland areas remaining quite
warm, just not as hot as the weekend, while coastal areas are more
seasonal. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR is imminent for the Bay Area terminals with KHAF potentially 
bouncing back and forth through the TAF period at MVFR/IFR. A local 
circulation will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings at KMRY through at least 
19z with clearing expected by 20z. The relatively unorganized marine 
layer continues to be a challenge to predict extent and timing. 
North Bay terminals if they see stratus ceilings it may not be until 
around sunrise Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO...As mentioned above, stratus clearing is imminent with 
VFR persisting through at least sunset. Hi-res guidance suggests 
the potential for stratus spilling over and through the San Bruno 
gap to KSFO as early as sunset with more confidence in development
after midnight, with earlier clearing time as warmer temperatures
begin to mix down by Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite trends indicate a local
circulation maintaining MVFR/IFR ceilings as late as 20z at KMRY 
with KSNS at VFR and will continue through the remainder of the 
afternoon and early evening. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible late 
in the TAF period. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Northwest breezes will continue to be fresh to strong through the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Coastal jet regions along
the Big Sur and Point Reyes will likely see gale force gusts with
moderate seas becoming rough through the middle of the week as
northwest winds increase. Tropical activity will continue to
produce long period swell along our coastal waters into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of
the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery 
will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet 
with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations
struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly 
true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, 
the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan 
Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- 
dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period
or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH 
will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, 
with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast 
potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release 
Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile 
across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are
advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are
urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed 
burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will
continue to impact our coastline over the next several days,
bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the
San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents
will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet
along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, 
such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach.
This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase 
suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In 
fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger 
sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times 
between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful 
and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets
being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are 
strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore.
Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a 
lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, 
and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other 
waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if
you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye 
on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist 
through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF 
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jul 28 14:30:03 PDT 2026