FXUS66 KMTR 110010
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
510 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

 - Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

 - Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week
 
 - Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening 

 - Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite fascinating as you can 
see the upper level troughing moving into northern California, while 
Tropical Storm Rachel moves towards Baja California. Visible 
satellite imagery shows some high clouds from TS Rachel starting to 
infiltrate the southern most skies in the Central COast while the 
majority of the region observes mostly clear skies due to drier air 
that has worked into the region. Though a few areas are still seeing 
some stratocumulus clouds lingering. The forecast generally appears 
to be on track as high temperatures generally sit in the upper 50s 
to low 60s along the coast, the low 60s to low 70s for interior 
valley locations, and the warmer temperatures, generally in the mid 
70s for the thermal belts.

Tonight, skies should clear for much of the region. Coastal stratus 
might try to around and south of Half Moon Bay,sneaking into the 
northern Salinas Valley. Temperatures tonight will cooler than last, 
with the 40s expected for most interior valley locations, and the 
upper 40s to low 50s for those near the coast or influenced by the 
stratus. Some higher elevations in the Diablo and Gabilan Ranges, 
the Cholame Hills, Sierra de Salinas, and Santa Lucia could see 
lows dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing continues to dominate the 
weather. Unseasonably cool high temperatures are forecast for the 
entire region, generally ranging from 5 to 15 degrees below their 
normals. Sunday looks to be dry for much of the period. Some showers 
might try to sneak up into southern Monterey and perhaps even into 
southern San Benito counties late Sunday into Monday morning. Models 
from the 12Z suite still showed this, though the NBM had continued to 
pull chances southward and out of the region. This continues to be 
seen with the 18Z model runs, which means chances may continue to 
trend south of our region. For now, kept the 15-40% chance of rain 
in the grids, favoring the Santa Lucia and Monterey/San Luis Obispo 
county lines. Precip amounts continue to be light and have trended 
to 0-0.05". 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

Upper level troughing slowly exits the region on Tuesday as an 
eastern Pacific High builds. One more day of cooler weather is 
expected, though temperatures should be several degrees higher than 
Monday. As upper level ridging moves in Wednesday and is then 
expected to hold through the end of the work week with cluster 
analysis supporting ridging into the weekend. Warmer and more 
seasonal weather is expected for mid week, with above normal 
temperatures expected for the weekend. Currently, no record high 
temperatures are at risk of being broken. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Gusty onshore winds continue this afternoon and ease post sunset. No 
marine layer is expected tonight as dry air from the cold front has 
mixed it out completely. There is potential for a few to scattered 
stratocumulus cloud decks, but not currently expecting significant 
impacts to operations. As a result, moderate to high confidence for 
VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period at most terminals. 
Monterey Bay terminals may develop MVFR stratus overnight though low 
confidence on the exact ceiling heights and timing. Light winds 
overnight increase to moderate onshore Sunday afternoon with a lower 
chance for widespread gusts.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with strong gusts around 20 to 30 kt gradually 
diminishing through the evening. High confidence for VFR to prevail 
through the TAF period. Sunday afternoon may have one last round of 
strong gusts with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 20-25 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate onshore winds gradually diminish 
this evening with VFR conditions prevailing. Low to medium 
confidence on MVFR stratus overnight given the presence of dry air 
mixing in the post-frontal environment. If a stratus deck does 
develop, it will likely be high-end/borderline MVFR ceilings. 
Otherwise, VFR prevails Sunday morning as moderate onshore winds 
increase to 10-15 kt. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 509 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hazardous marine environment this weekend due to fresh breezes to
Gale force northwest winds over the waters. Expect frequent gale
force gusts in exposed waters north of Pigeon Point. The stronger
winds will result in rough to very rough seas. A confused sea
stater will persist due to strong winds, rough seas, and several
swells from several directions impacting the coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but
beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will
bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches. 
More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long 
period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will 
build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell
from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive 
Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings
will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are 
brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high 
tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without 
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to 
avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your 
back on the ocean!

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of 
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes 
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Oct 10 20:30:04 PDT 2026