FXUS66 KMTR 251941
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1241 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

 - Cooler conditions through the weekend

 - Warmer temperatures next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

Lingering stratus is dissipating across the East Bay, the San Mateo 
coast, the southern Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, while high 
clouds flow over the North Bay. A weak and dry cold front passed 
through the SF Bay Area this morning and is making its way through 
the Central Coast, bringing breezy conditions in its wake through 
the afternoon and evening hours, and starting a cooling and 
moistening trend across the region. High temperatures today will 
range from the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland valleys, the 
upper 80s to lower 90s in the southern reaches of Monterey County, 
the upper 60s to the upper 70s near the Bays, and the lower to 
middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Overnight tonight, some weak
offshore flow is possible in the higher elevations of the North
and East Bay.

By Saturday, a trough will develop in the eastern Pacific, and 
through the weekend, strengthen into a cut-off low and march into 
the state, continuing the cooling trend towards the rest of the 
weekend. Highs in the inland valleys will range from the 70s into 
the lower 80s, while the coast and the Bays see highs ranging 
from the 60s to the lower 70s. The warmest spots in southern 
Monterey County will rise to the upper 80s to the lower 90s on 
Saturday. Nocturnal drying is possible Saturday night into Sunday 
morning within higher elevations above the marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
(Monday through next Thursday) 

Ridging, or at the very least more zonal flow, will return to the 
region on Monday as the cut-off low moves off to the southeast, 
causing temperatures to rise near to slightly above (up to 10 
degrees) the seasonal average for the middle of next week. High 
temperatures in the middle 80s to lower 90s are expected in the 
inland valleys, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the bays, and 
the middle 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Beyond that, forecast 
uncertainty rises as ensemble model cluster analysis starts to 
diverge on the upper level pattern across the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A mix of VFR-MVFR conditions this morning will give way to VFR 
regionwide by this afternoon. High confidence for breezy onshore 
winds this afternoon in wake of a dry frontal passage. Winds are 
forecast to ease overnight and more so into early Saturday 
morning. Low to moderate confidence for the return of low ceilings
and/or fog across the region early Saturday morning. The greatest
potential for sub-VFR conditions are at HAF, OAK, and SNS. Any 
low clouds and/or fog will dissipate by 18Z Saturday. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Increasing west to northwest winds this 
afternoon with gusts up to 28 kt. Low confidence for sub-VFR 
conditions early Saturday morning through about 17Z with the 
greatest potential over OAK. Winds ease early Saturday morning 
before increasing once again in the afternoon with VFR conditions 
likely to prevail throughout the day on Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Expecting increasing northwesterly 
winds this afternoon before easing after sunset. The greatest 
potential for sub-IFR conditions will be over SNS with the 
potential for fog development, however have just SCT006 in at MRY 
from 1100Z-1630Z Saturday to account for the uncertainty. 
 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 853 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A passing dry cold front will bring fresh to strong northerly
breezes into the weekend. Near gale force gusts are possible
across Monterey Bay south to Big Sur through Sunday afternoon and
evening. Tropical storm activity producing long period southerly
swell begins to increase for the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Transition day across the district as a weak dry cold front sweeps
through. As of this writing the front is just pushing through the
N Bay and will traverse through the Central Coast by this
afternoon. The passing front will kick off a cooling and
moistening trend, which will continue through the weekend. More
importantly for a fire weather standpoint the passing front will
cause an uptick in winds. Winds will likely be strongest later
this afternoon and this evening. Winds ease overnight, but a weak
offshore push develops for early Saturday morning. Nothing to be
alarmed over as it will be weak and mainly N and E Bay higher
terrain.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Sep 25 14:30:03 PDT 2026