FXUS66 KMTR 020442
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
942 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

 - Cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday with breezy
   afternoon winds.

 - Gradual warming through Independence Day with pleasant
   conditions and temperatures returning back to near-normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)

GOES-West visible imagery offers a similar snapshot compared to 
yesterday with marine stratus blanketing the Pacific Coast. The 
one difference to point out would be a thin shield of high clouds 
passing over the northern third of the Golden State. All in all, a
very pleasant day on-tap for the San Francisco Bay Area and 
Central California Coast with minimal weather impacts to speak of.
High temperatures will land in the 50s and 60s along the 
immediate Pacific Coast, warming to the 70s and 80s for interior 
locations.

The synoptic picture features a trough over Western North America
with a strong ridge over the Eastern United States. The trough 
axis has remained quasi-stationary over the last several days, 
which has promoted the overall tranquil late June, and now, early 
July weather. The trough will weaken on Thursday as the Eastern 
Pacific returns to more zonal flow aloft. That said, tomorrow will
be largely a repeat of today with marine stratus for the coast 
and mostly clear conditions inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 
(Friday through next Tuesday)

Upper-level pattern will transition to zonal flow on 
Friday/Saturday as 500 mb heights begin to increase. This will 
correspond to some synoptic warming at the surface, mainly for 
inland locations, through Saturday. Overall, this warming will 
just return interior communities closer to early July 
climatology. In fact, HeatRisk for Independence Day will remain 
Low (green) along the coast and Minor (yellow) inland with the 
usual coastal stratus.

Ensembles advertise ridging over the Desert Southwest late 
weekend and early next week. Still do not foresee much in terms of
HeatRisk beyond the Minor (yellow) and very isolated Moderate 
(orange) categories for central and northern California through 
early next week. According to the National Blend of Models, the 
only local areas with at least 20% probability of exceeding 90 
deg F through next Tuesday are confined to far eastern Contra 
Costa, southern San Benito, and southern Monterey Counties. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Stratus with MVFR ceilings are solidly in place along the coast
this evening. Locally breezy onshore winds continue this evening 
before decreasing overnight. Later tonight some of CIGS may
briefly drop to IFR, but this is starting to look less likely 
with them starting around 1500 to 2000 feet. The stratus is 
expected to clear again in most areas, but this may be brief at 
the immediate coast. Stratus, mainly MVFR ceilings with localized 
IFR, will redevelop tonight into Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the evening. Low confidence of a
brief return of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. Winds will 
increase to around 15 kt again Thursday afternoon before
diminishing again overnight. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the evening. 
Confidence is moderate that MVFR stratus will return late tonight
into Wednesday morning at OAK. So far not much has developed as of
05Z so confidence is getting lower on this. At SJC, VFR 
conditions are likely to prevail through Thursday morning. Some 
stratus is moving north near Morgan hill. This is not anticipated 
to make it much farther, but there is a low potential for a brief 
period of MVFR CIGS towards morning. Tonight, winds decreasing and
becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC. Thursday
afternoon winds are expected to become northwest again at SJC 
again by 21 or 22Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR stratus returning quickly this 
evening at both SNS and MRY. Breezy winds are slowly diminishing
this evening and tonight. VFR conditions are expected to return 
in the afternoon on Thursday although confidence is low on the 
timing and it will likely be a similar duration to today.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 923 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Gale force gusts across the northern outer waters will ease
tonight. Moderate northwest breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough
to very rough seas will continue in the outer waters through
tonight before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into
Friday. Moderate to strong breezes are expected to continue
through the weekend with the strongest winds in the north.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...MKK
MARINE...MKK

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jul 1 22:30:04 PDT 2026