FXUS66 KMTR 042144
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
244 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026

 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds mainly in the afternoon and
   evening
 
 - Mild to hot conditions Friday afternoon across the interior  

 - Notable cool down for the weekend through the middle of next 
   week

 - Hazardous beach conditions Thursday night through Saturday
   morning

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026
(This evening through Friday)

Another afternoon of abundant sunshine across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. The one exception to that statement is the Monterey
Peninsula where low stratus continues to bump up against the
terrain. Yesterday afternoon ended up being rather windy across
the region. Today is less windy across the interior, but onshore 
flow is still occuring. KSFO is registering wind gusts of 25 kt 
this afternoon. Peeking at the 24 hour trend shows coastal areas 
are generally cooler while far interior are warmer, clear sign of 
onshore flow. 

Tonight: Another night with a partial mixed marine layer. Hi-res 
guidance paints a picture of patchy stratus along the coast and 
locally inland with the biggest coverage over the Monterey Bay 
region. Almost a repeat of this morning.

Friday: Onshore flow remains with breezy afternoon seabreeze 
push. Outside of the marine influence temperatures will warm into 
the 80s and 90s again. Friday will end of being the warmest day of
the bunch, but relief at night and onshore flow will keep 
HeatRisk values in check. Only the far interior locations reach 
the Moderate category. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 150 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 (Friday night through next 
Wednesday)

We've been talking about an upstream upper low and associated
trough bringing a noticeable cooldown over the weekend and that 
is still on track. A system currently near the Gulf of AK will 
move eastward bring lower H5 and colder 850mb temp dropping 
temperatures below seasonal levels Saturday and Sunday. Highs will
60s/mid 70s coast/bays and 70s to mid 80s interior. The dropping 
heights will help to bring a more defined marine layer with 
night/morning clouds too. Lastly, the cold advection aloft will 
bring a solid push of onshore flow with gusty winds along the 
coast and inland valleys/gaps/passes Saturday afternoon.

Early next week we get another secondary trailing system. Global 
models are struggling with the trailing system with some keeping 
the low way north and others dropping it over CA. Clusters also 
reflects the uncertainty with more members leaning toward a more 
southerly push. As such, we still have a mention of showers in 
the region Monday into Tuesday. Chances are highest over the
waters/coast/Bay Area northward. Even if showers develop not
expecting much in the way of precip totals.  

Warmer and drier conditions develop by Wednesday and Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Widespread VFR conditions as the last bit of stratus clears from the 
coastline. Clear skies and gentle to moderate breezes (generally 
from the west but locally driven) dominate the TAF period, with a 
couple of sites experiencing strong gusts in excess of 20kts. 
Coastal sites will see another round of stratus coverage tonight 
with IFR-MVFR ceilings. Currently, there is low confidence on how 
widespread stratus will be at HAF so, decided to leave it as FEW-
SCT015 beginning tonight ~10pm PDT. The low to mid level airmass off 
the coast remains dry with satellite currently showing a wide gap in 
cloud coverage to the west.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds pick up 
to moderate strength by the early afternoon. Gusts in excess of 
20kts will also begin by then and persist until ~9pm PDT. Winds 
diminish to gentle breezes overnight into Friday morning, though 
they are expected to increase again to moderate strength by early 
Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...NW to W moderate winds with strong gusts 
similar to that of SFO prevail into the evening. Winds diminish to a 
light breeze (~6kts) a bit earlier than SFO and become variable 
overnight. Aligns with SFO again by late Friday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon until the stratus 
deck returns again this evening. The marine layer will become ~1000 
feet deep overnight which will bring borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings at 
MRY around 9pm PDT and IFR ceilings at SNS around midnight. MVFR 
ceilings are expected by Friday morning at both terminals as the 
marine layer begins to erode. Onshore gentle breezes will prevail 
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft continue through the 
weekend. Gale force gusts are expected across the outer waters and
along the coastal jet regions. Moderate to rough seas will 
continue to build through Friday to become rough to very rough for
the inner and outer waters through the weekend. Conditions will 
gradually begin to improve Monday as northwesterly winds diminish 
to become fresh to strong and seas subside to become moderate.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 242 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement will go into effect at 3 AM Friday through 
9 AM Saturday due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong 
rip currents. Long period southwest swell is approaching the Pacific 
coast, with periods of 17 to 18 seconds and a height of around 3 
feet in the open waters. These long period swells result in 
increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which 
surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware 
beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep 
the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the 
ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay from the water. Observe 
the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard 
if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the 
coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday 
     morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 
     10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jun 4 16:30:02 PDT 2026