FXUS66 KMTR 090710
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1210 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

 - Chance for coastal drizzle continues through the morning hours

 - Warmer and drier conditions expected Wednesday through Saturday

 - Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for interior locations
   on Wednesday and Thursday

 - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in the
   interior Bay Area late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
(Today and tonight)

Light showers are moving through the Bay Area as an incoming cold 
front drags some moisture through the region. These showers have 
overperformed a little, and we've gotten reports of a few hundredths 
of an inch of rain as far south as the Santa Cruz Mountains. With 
continuing bands of precipitation moving through, have added a 
chance for coastal and foothill drizzle across the Bay Area and 
Santa Cruz County through the night, but accumulations are still 
light and won't top a tenth of an inch across most of the Bay Area. 

Today will mark the beginnings of a pattern change as an upper level 
trough over the Pacific Northwest starts to shift eastwards and 
allow a building ridge to come in from the Pacific. Today's highs 
will be seasonable to cool, but they will be slightly warmer than 
yesterday's with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout 
the inland valleys, up to the upper 80s and near 90 in the warmest 
spots of southern Monterey County, the upper 60s to middle 70s near 
the bays, and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

The pattern change will continue through Wednesday and Thursday as 
the ridge extends into the West Coast while the trough dips a little 
south of due east to create an inside slider-like setup, allowing 
for a dramatic warming of temperatures for the middle and latter 
parts of the week. In addition, strong northerly gusts and low 
humidities late on Wednesday into Thursday could result in elevated 
to near-critical fire weather conditions across the North Bay 
interior mountains, the Diablo range across the interior East Bay, 
and the eastern Santa Clara County mountains. For more information 
on the expected conditions, see the FIRE WEATHER section. 

Hot temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will contribute to 
Moderate HeatRisk across the inland regions, as high temperatures 
reach the 90s into the triple digits across the inland valleys, 
while temperatures reach the 80s to lower 90s close to the bays and 
the 60s to the middle 70s at the Pacific Coast. This corresponds to 
a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for people 
sensitive to heat including children, the elderly, pregnant women, 
people with chronic health conditions, and people who work or live 
outside without adequate cooling or shelter. People spending time 
outdoors should take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty 
of water. 

The ridging pattern will persist Friday into the upcoming weekend 
with the ridge axis further developing into the northeast Pacific 
off British Columbia and the Alaskan panhandle, and the current 
forecast depicts a gradual cooling trend during that time persisting 
into the early part of next week. Confidence remains low regarding 
the time that a marine layer redevelops, but model output hints that 
the marine layer stratus could return as soon as Saturday or Sunday. 
Conversely, without any major large-scale forcing to move the 
general ridging pattern away, temperatures could continue to trend 
warmer for Friday and the following weekend. The extended range 
outlook has around a 50-50 chance that temperatures remain above the 
seasonal average heading into the third week of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR through the afternoon as high level clouds begin to move across 
the region as the low pressure system to our northwest moves 
onshore. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in at terminals beginning as 
early as 5pm PDT today and will be widespread by sunset. Moderate 
westerly winds (10+ kts) prevail through the afternoon and early 
evening with embedded gusts in excess of 20kts. Medium to high 
confidence that most terminals will develop IFR ceilings overnight, 
except for LVK and SJC where it will remain MVFR through Tuesday 
morning. Winds ease overnight and may become variable at times at 
some sites, but will predominantly come from the west unless 
otherwise stated in TAF. North Bay and coastal terminals have a 20-
30% chance of experiencing some drizzle (up to 0.01 inches) this 
evening through the overnight hours from the approaching upper-level 
trough, though confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR and strong gusts prevail through the day into 
the evening. MVFR ceilings will settle over the Bay around 5pm as 
westerly winds begin to ease. Ceilings will become borderline IFR-
MVFR around sunset time and eventually get pushed to IFR through the 
overnight hours. Conditions improve back to VFR by late Tuesday 
morning due to mixing. High confidence in forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon as westerly winds 
increase to moderate breezes (10-15kts). Winds diminish slightly 
early evening (~5pm PDT) with developing MVFR ceilings that 
eventually become IFR through the overnight hours. Expecting 
conditions to transition back to VFR by Tuesday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Breezy conditions linger in the inner waters south of Point Sur.
Expect winds to ease across the waters overnight, but
northwesterly winds and seas will begin to build again Tuesday
morning. This will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft
to develop across the waters. Gale force gusts are expected by
Tuesday night over the northern outer waters. Winds and seas begin
to ease again into Thursday, and stay light through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Hot temperatures, gusty north winds, and low humidities across the 
North Bay interior mountains into the Diablo Range will raise the 
fire weather threats late on Wednesday into Thursday, with a 
particular emphasis on the interior mountains of Napa County. 
Although the strongest winds will remain within the Sacramento 
Valley, gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected to spread into Napa 
County and the Diablo Range south through Santa Clara County, with 
stronger gusts of 40-50 mph possible along the Vaca Mountains along 
Napa County's eastern edge. Meanwhile, daytime humidity retention 
will be very poor with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%, 
while overnight recoveries are likewise poor as RH values top out at 
20-30%. Thus, fuels are expected to dry rapidly, leading to the 
elevated fire weather concerns. Also important to note that even 
with the drizzle and light rain coming through the region, wetting 
rains (rain totals above 0.1") are not expected, limiting any relief 
that will be realized for the midweek period. Elsewhere across the 
district, conditions remain hot and dry, but we're not expecting 
winds to be as strong as they are across the interior North Bay.

We are continuing to monitor the potential for fire weather products 
to be issued for the interior mountains of the North, East, and 
South Bays for Wednesday and Thursday. At present, conditions are 
right on the edge of critical fire weather criteria, but the 
confidence isn't there at this point to pull the trigger on any 
warnings. The day shift will reevaluate the fire weather forecast 
for Wednesday and Thursday and in collaboration with neighboring 
offices, will be in a better position to determine the extent of 
necessary products. Regardless of whether any products are issued 
across the interior, elevated to near critical fire weather 
conditions are still forecast and care must be taken to avoid 
starting a fire that could spread rapidly. Remember, one less
spark, one less wildfire.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 9 04:30:03 PDT 2026