FXUS66 KMTR 140804
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1204 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

 - Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with
   breaking waves 25 to 35 feet

 - Stay away from the beach!

 - Scattered showers through the morning

 - Periods of rain continue through the next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Today and tonight)

The first of a series of frontal systems passed us by yesterday, 
with post-frontal showers persisting across the Bay Area and Central 
Coast through the morning. Skies will start out partly to mostly 
cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloudiness through the 
afternoon and evening hours as a second system arrives for Sunday 
and Monday. Morning lows will fall in the lower to middle 40s for 
the inland valleys, down into the middle to upper 30s for the 
coolest interior spots, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for the 
Bayshore and coastal regions. Highs today will remain on the cool 
side with the inland valleys coming in within the middle 60s and the 
Pacific coast within the lower 60s, while higher elevations areas 
range in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will be gentle through the 
day, turning southerly as the second system approaches, with some 
gusty winds possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.

Very hazardous conditions are developing along the Pacific coast 
with High Surf Warnings in effect through early Sunday morning due 
to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of 
sneaker waves and rip currents. Locally higher waves of 40 to 50 
feet are possible at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. In 
addition, coastal flooding concerns stemming from wave runup effects 
are possible along the coastline. See the BEACHES section for more 
details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean."

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

A second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of 
Monday. Rain totals will range from a half an inch to one inch 
across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia 
range, one to one and a half inches in the Sonoma County coastal 
ranges, and a quarter to half an inch across the interior portions 
of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but 
will not be as strong as Friday's system with gusts of 20 to 30 mph 
possible across the SF Bay Area as the front approaches and moves 
through. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into 
Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on 
Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at 
this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will 
bring, but the forecast trend is leaning towards a more potent 
system coming into the region as model output suggests that this 
storm will be stronger than the Sunday-Monday system and slow down 
as it comes into the region. The flooding concerns will increase 
through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams 
reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern
remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal 
averages into the last week of November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

More widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist 
with isolated MVFR conditions overnight that may be accompanied by 
scattered showers. There is moderate to high confidence of ceilings 
scattering out tonight with shower activity decreasing by early 
Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist through 
tomorrow afternoon with another system arriving late Saturday night 
into Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO...There is high confidence of VFR conditions
continuing into Saturday afternoon with isolated instances of 
MVFR possible as the scattered rain showers make their way through
the forecast area. Scattered showers are still possible tonight 
as we head into the morning hours, but will become less likely 
after midnight. Ceilings will continue to scatter out overnight 
into Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist 
into Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers continue to move 
through the Central Coast but will taper off overnight. Clear 
skies and light onshore flow return by late tomorrow morning 
before winds shift southerly again late evening/overnight ahead of
the next system arriving Sunday. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Scattered showers and a moderate northwesterly breeze will
continue  over the marine environment through early Saturday
morning. Very  dangerous conditions for mariners continues with
wave heights  building significantly tonight into Saturday. Very
high seas are  expected on Saturday with significant wave heights
up to 25 feet  forecast across the coastal waters. Wave heights
subside slightly  Sunday but very high seas will persist through
early next week. The  next round of fresh to strong southerly
winds will arrive Saturday  night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Widespread  rain returns early Sunday and
continues into Monday with winds  decreasing and shifting
northwesterly after cold frontal passage.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series
of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific
through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW
swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal
conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday
with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in
addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker
waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored
breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate
somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives
Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding 
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. 
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% 
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher 
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea 
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly 
during high tide.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Rothenberg
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 14 02:30:02 PST 2026