FXUS66 KMTR 081227
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
427 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

 - Patchy fog this morning, especially for North Bay Valleys.

 - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay tonight.

 - Chances for soaking rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, and 
   again next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
(Today through Monday)

Mostly clear skies are being observed across the Bay Area and the
Central Coast this morning. As temperatures cool and reduce dew 
point depressions, fog is starting to develop being patchy in 
nature from the East Bay Valleys down the Salinas Valley and more 
areas of fog development in the North Bay Valleys. Widespread 
dense fog is not expected, but webcams will be monitored through 
the morning.

After daybreak, the added sunshine will help mix out any 
lingering fog my mid morning. Partly cloudy skies will remain out 
ahead of the next system to the North, but mostly sunny skies are 
expected for areas south of the Bay Bridge. Temperatures will 
increase into the mid 60s for the Bay Area (upper 50s to low 60s 
along the coastline) and a chance for low 70s in southern Monterey
County. No major changes to the forecast regarding the rain 
chances today. The shortwave trough is still expected to pass over
southern Oregon keeping the higher precipitation totals there and
in the northern California. The (20 to 40 percent) chance for 
area in the forecast area will mainly be in the North Bay with 
only a couple hundredths or rain possible late this afternoon and 
evening. Any chance for a sprinkle south of the North Bay is less 
than 10 percent.

Cooler air will filter in behind this wave. Temperatures tomorrow
morning will be a degree or two cooler than this morning, with 
another chance for patchy fog. Similarly, high temperatures will 
also be slightly cooler on Monday than today, but still remain a 
couple degrees warmer than seasonable norms. No precipitation is 
expected to start the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
(Monday Night through Saturday)

The next upper level low will drop southward over the ocean and 
move over the California Coast Tuesday afternoon through 
Wednesday. Model runs are trending wetter with this system 
compared to earlier in the weekend. With precipitable water 
amounts trending just under an inch, there is a good chance that 
coastal areas could see about or just over a half an inch of rain,
with some coastal higher elevations around an inch. While there 
will still be a difference in amounts with coastal areas seeing 
more, traditional rain shadowed areas could still even receive 
over a quarter of an inch of rain. Lastly, models are suggesting a
potent 120+kt 300 mb jet will company this upper level low 
providing some synoptic lift enhancement. However, the Euro is 
suggesting the core of the jet would arrive over the Central Coast
whereas the GFS is slightly more north toward the Bay Area. While
CAPE values are not overly robust, model sounding are showing a 
strip of shallow, skinny area of instability. While confidence is 
not high, there is a slight chance for thunder Tuesday night. 
While the details may still be tweaked, it looks like a widespread
soaking rain is in store for the Bay Area and the Central Coast 
midweek.

Cooler air advection with this upper level low will help provide 
more seasonable normal temperatures across the area by the middle 
of the week. Weak ridging is expected Thursday in to Friday for a 
brief respite from the rain.

Models are showing fairly good agreement in another system 
expected to move in over the weekend. While models are disagreeing
on the specific timing and strength of the system, many ensemble 
members are suggesting that this system has a higher chance for a 
widespread soaking rain than the midweek system. And with colder 
air filtering in aloft, snow levels are expected to drop below 
5,000 feet. How low they will go and whether or not the peaks of 
some of the higher terrain could see a dusting remains uncertain. 
But morning low temperatures this weekend could drop down below 40
degrees for some of the interior valley locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

Areas of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ mainly over the northern 
coastal waters closely correspond to an area of surface to near 
surface cooler air drifting into the Bay Area this morning. A 
mainly clear sky is assisting with nocturnal radiative cooling to 
saturation forming areas of stratus and fog over the coastal 
waters and land. Recently light onshore winds have also helped to 
transport stratus and fog to the coast and inland. Patchy stratus
and fog /LIFR-IFR/ over the north Central Coast has so far been 
slow to develop, where it is currently outside the aforementioned
near surface cooler air at ~ 1000 mb level. Overall conditions 
remain favorable for stratus and fog through daybreak until late 
morning (and afternoon) when increasing diurnal surface warming 
and mixing favors VFR.

For tonight and early Monday a cool front will move southeastward
over the coastal waters and bays resulting in an increase in 
stratus ceilings /IFR-MVFR/. High resolution model output does 
show some post frontal drying taking place later tonight and 
Monday morning, though likely still leaving at least a mix of 
patchy stratus and fog /IFR-MVFR/. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails so far, with little in the way of 
stratus seen on satellite imagery along the San Francisco Peninsula.
Conditions favor at least partial stratus formation through 
daybreak, a tempo group for BKN IFR ceiling is forecast 13z-17z
today. Otherwise it's VFR today into either early or mid evening,
currently advertising a return of stratus /MVFR/ ceiling 04z this
evening. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus /IFR/ is occuring from KOAK southward
along the Bay Shoreline to KNUQ. Similar to SFO, conditions are
favorable for at least partial stratus formation closer to KSFO
and in the approach through daybreak. Otherwise it's VFR today into
either early or mid evening, model output shows stratus /MVFR/ 
ceilings returning in advance of the incoming cool front arriving 
tonight and early Monday.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus /IFR/ is occuring from KOAK southward
along the Bay Shoreline to KNUQ and at times periodically forming to
the south at KSJC. Conditions are favorable for additional patches
of stratus and/or mist/fog. Otherwise it's VFR today into either early
or mid evening, model output does show stratus /MVFR/ returning in
advance of the incoming cool front arriving tonight and early 
Monday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Ongoing nocturnal cooling will likely help
produce patches of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ through daybreak.
There may be some advection of nearby newly forming stratus and
fog to the Monterey Bay Terminals as well through daybreak. Tempo
groups are in the 12z TAFs 13z-18z today, otherwise VFR from late
morning through the afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceilings return
as early as 03z (or possibly earlier) in advance of the incoming 
cool front tonight and early Monday. Light and variable winds 
becoming onshore near 10 knots in the afternoon and light and 
variable tonight and early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

A cold front currently 400 miles northwest of the Bay Area will
move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and
early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds
will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A
low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain
to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday 
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 8 08:30:03 PST 2026