FXUS66 KMTR 071929
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1229 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part 
   of next week

 - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday

 - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
   populations across the interior early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
(This evening through Friday)

Low clouds are retreating to the coast as of early this afternoon
with sunny conditions returning to inland areas. Thus, maximum 
temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to upper 70s 
across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the 
interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the 
northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the 
marine layer. 

Stratus will once again return tonight and spread inland into the
interior valleys by Friday morning before retreating to the coast
by mid-to-late morning and early afternoon. Also, there is the 
low end potential for coastal drizzle or mist tonight into Friday 
morning. However, widespread rainfall highly unlikely. Friday, for
most locations, will be warmer by a few degrees compared to 
today. Yet only expecting Minor HeatRisk across much of the 
interior. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend and 
peak on Monday of the upcoming workweek as high pressure over the 
eastern Pacific builds westward. This is when more widespread 
Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior. The relatively 
cool overnight low temperatures will likely prevent us from 
reaching higher categories of HeatRisk. However, in the hills and 
higher elevations across the region, temperatures will remain warm
during the overnight period with 60s and a few 70s Monday night 
into Tuesday morning. The marine layer and associated impacts will
begin to compress through the weekend, but not completely go 
away. With this and onshore flow prevailing, conditions along the 
northwest facing coastal locations will remain cooler compared to 
inland locations. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are forecast 
to reach the low to upper 90s across the interior with the 
greatest potential to reach or exceed 100 degrees F being around 
Pinnacles National Park (50%-65%) and the southern Salinas Valley 
(20%-40%). 

Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however 
will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The 
cooling trend is currently forecast to continue into the middle of
next week as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge becomes 
centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the Climate 
Prediction Center maintains likely (roughly 60%) probability for 
above normal temperatures to persist through days 6-10. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs have persisted into mid-morning with better 
clearing trends apparent for the South Bay and Monterey terminal 
at TAF issuance (1720Z). North Bay and Bay Area terminals will 
likely have to wait until 19z-20z for low stratus to clear out,
with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening.
A robust marine layer will produce a return of low stratus 
tonight through Friday morning with similar clearing times as 
today.

Vicinity of SFO...Low stratus is expected to clear out by early
afternoon with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and 
early evening. Expect similar timing for MVFR/IFR cigs returning 
tonight through much of Friday morning with persistent onshore 
flow, which will be breezy at times late this afternoon and 
evening, along with a healthy marine layer.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Salinas Valley drainage is almost 
complete at KSNS with VFR expected for the remainder of the day 
and early evening. KMRY may hold on to IFR cigs into early
afternoon, however recent satellite trends show potential for
clearing out earlier. Expect similar timing of a return of low
stratus cigs this evening through Friday morning, and for clearing
times as well.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest winds will continue to increase through the day
becoming strong tonight and continue strong through the weekend
along with steadily building seas that will also persist through
the weekend, and into the beginning of next week for our outer
waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 7 18:30:03 PDT 2026