FXUS66 KMTR 071913
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1213 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Warming trend through the weekend will result in moderate to 
   major HeatRisk for the interior

 - Near-critical fire weather conditions in the higher terrain 
   through Sunday

 - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San 
   Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays this evening through 
   next Thursday morning

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

The warming trend will begin today and persist through the 
weekend as high pressure over the Desert Southwest builds 
westward. Thus, Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of the 
Interior Bay Area and Central Coast from 10 AM Saturday through 10
PM Sunday. The exception is the North Bay Valleys where we have 
temperatures forecast to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. However, 
places such as Cloverdale is forecast to be the hottest and are 
expected to exceed 100 deg F. Temperatures under the Heat Advisory
are forecast to warm into the mid 90s and up to 105 deg F in the 
warmest interior locations where the most widespread moderate to 
isolated major HeatRisk are present. Overnight lows are also 
forecast to be warm in the mid 60s in the hills just above the 
marine influences to low 80s (especially in the higher 
elevations). Maximum temperatures closer to the coast are forecast
to be in the 60s to mid 70s thanks to the continued onshore flow 
and marine influences. Overnight lows near the coast are largely 
forecast to be in the 50s over the weekend.

During this weekends heat event, remember: 

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight and light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

Minor coastal flooding is also expected at the time of peak high 
tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San 
Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays this evening through next 
Thursday morning. Please see the CFW product we have out for 
additional details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026
(Monday through next Thursday)

Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Monday as the ridge starts 
to flatten, yet the interior will still be quite warm. Northerly 
winds are forecast to increase and will result in hazardous 
conditions to small craft early next week as well, especially 
across the northern waters. Temperatures are then forecast to cool
to below seasonal averages late next week as troughing develops 
off of the West Coast. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to settle in by noon today, 
except at KHAF where they have a low chance of scattering out this 
afternoon. Moderate onshore winds increase to 10-15 kt this 
afternoon and become light overnight. The marine layer returns to 
most terminals tonight after 02-03Z Saturday for coastal sites and 
after 06-07Z Saturday for inland areas. It has been around 1200-1500 
feet the past few days, though there is potential for it to compress 
down to 1000-1200 feet as the upper-level ridge continues to move 
westward. If the marine layer remains at the same depth, MVFR 
ceilings may develop around 12Z at KSJC.

Vicinity of SFO...West to northwest winds increase to around 15-18 
kt this afternoon and ease to around 5-10 kt overnight. Medium to 
high confidence for IFR ceilings to develop around 06-10Z Saturday 
as the marine layer gradually becomes compressed these next couple of 
days. Stratus should clear around the same time as today, 17-18Z 
Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. May have more of a SCT cloud 
deck than a BKN/OVC ceiling. If KSJC develops a ceiling, the bridge 
approach may develop one as well.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon with NW winds 
around 10-14 kt. Borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings (OVC005-007) develop 
again tonight with visibility impacts (4-6SM) possible at KMRY. 
Medium confidence on stratus arrival as it may roll in between 02-
07Z Saturday and persist until 17-18Z tomorrow. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 950 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Moderate northwest winds continue on a gradual increase towards 
fresh to strong breezes with moderate seas building to rough by 
Sunday. These conditions remain elevated through the middle of 
next week, particularly across the northern outer waters. A long 
period southerly swell around 15 to 17 seconds persists through 
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions persist through the weekend 
across the interior due to very hot and dry conditions. Strong 
thermal belting, extended burn periods, elevated PIG, and near or 
record BI/ERC values are expected. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 
degrees above normal with a compressed marine layer. Poor minimum 
daytime relative humidity as low as 10% in the afternoons with 
little-to-no recovery overnight is expected with nocturnal drying in 
the highest terrain. Even with critically dry conditions, wind is 
the limiting factor preventing this from being a Fire Weather 
Watch/Red Flag Warning event. Outside of the diurnal sea breeze that 
will bring breezy conditions in the afternoons and evenings through 
gaps and passes, onshore flow will be light. Additionally, critical 
conditions are not expected to meet coverage or duration 
requirements to warrant a product.

Sarment

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT 
     Thursday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ503-
     504-510-512>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Aug 7 12:30:02 PDT 2026