FXUS66 KMTR 110015
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
515 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will continue through Monday

 - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive 
   populations across the interior on Monday

 - Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather midweek through 
   late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026
(This evening through Monday)

Temperatures this afternoon are struggling to reach their forecasted 
highs. This is as a deeper marine layer around 1500 ft in the North 
Bay and 2000 ft in the Bay Area and Central Coast developed 
overnight. Again, where cloud cover lingers or is slow to dissipate 
across inland areas is where we are most likely to see cooler 
temperatures than previously forecasted. That said, inland clearing 
will still allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon as high 
pressure to the south of the region continues to strengthen. 

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to mid 50s 
across most valley locations. Meanwhile, the higher ridges and peaks 
will likely bottom out in the upper 50s to 60s. If persistence 
holds, low clouds will fill back inland overnight, yet not expecting 
as much of an inland penetration as the marine layer is still on 
track to compress. 

Monday is still on track to be the warmest day of the week, yet we 
are seeing less widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. 
Mondays afternoon maximum temperatures are expected to be in the mid 
80s to lower 90s across the interior with cooler conditions near the 
coast as a shallow marine layer and onshore flow will persist. 
However, these temperatures could be off by a few to several degrees 
where cloud cover develops and lingers. Tricky forecast as high 
pressure aloft supports warming afternoon temperatures, yet the 
marine influences have been winning out. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The pattern begins to shift Monday night into Tuesday as a trough of 
low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern 
California. Thus, temperatures will cool by several degrees on 
Tuesday, yet are likely to remain above seasonal averages. A cut-off 
low pressure system is forecast to develop and move inland Tuesday 
night and into Wednesday bringing even cooler and unsettled weather 
to the region. We are still expecting drizzle and/or light rain 
Tuesday night through Thursday morning as a result of the mid/upper 
level cut-off low moving inland across northern California or the 
Bay Area. Rainfall amounts generally will remain less than a few 
hundredths of an inch or so. 

More of a zonal flow returns by late week and will persist through 
the upcoming weekend. This will result in a warming and drying trend 
through this timeframe. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

If you guessed satellite analysis for what this meteorologist 
started with for the aviation forecast, you'd be correct. It has 
been quite a fascinating journey the past few days watching the 
status of the stratus, which is what we're doing yet again. This 
evening's observations include Mainly VFR conditions with the 
exception being along the San Francisco Peninsula and Monterey 
coastlines where sites are reporting MVFR cigs. These will likely 
hold and even build for the overnight hours bringing MVFR to IFR 
ceilings. The marine layer is expected to be around 1000ft tonight 
which means the onset of stratus in the valleys will be delayed or 
non-existent. Most sites have hints of cigs, with them lifting by 
mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected for the majority of 
the region by Monday afternoon. Medium to high confidence in the 
forecast.


Vicinity of SFO...Breezy westerly winds are coming online and should 
hold for a couple of hours, before falling to 10kt or less after 6Z. 
The challenge outside of winds is the stratus. Satellite imagery and 
webcams show lingering stratus near the San Bruno Gap, but it has 
been gradually eroding this afternoon. With the marine layer 
expected to be around 1000ft again, we should see the return of 
stratus tonight. Kept the pessimism in the TAFs with IFR cigs based 
on the last few nights, but time will tell if go that low or stay in 
the MVFR category. Stratus looks to dissipate mid to late morning, 
with breezy westerlies returning Monday afternoon. Will need to keep 
an eye on the marine layer again tomorrow night. Medium confidence 
in the forecast. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...A small band of stratus remains around the 
Monterey Peninsula, which has been flirting with KMRY the last few 
hours. Expect this to build back in this evening bringing MVFR to 
IFR cigs to the terminals. Stratus should begin to erode by mid to 
late morning, though a few clouds could linger around KMRY. 
&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 515 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwest breeze with
isolated near gale force gusts continuing through tonight.
Locally gusty conditions are likely across the San Pablo and San
Francisco Bays where terrain promotes wind funneling. Winds  ease
late tonight across the inner waters then across the outer  waters
tomorrow becoming a moderate northwest breeze. Winds  increase and
seas build again mid to late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun May 10 18:30:03 PDT 2026