FXUS66 KMTR 060027
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
527 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026

 - Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this
   morning

 - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week
   through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Some isolated light rain has produced a few hundredths of an inch of 
rainfall for some elevated interior portions of the East Bay and 
South Bay, with drier air filling in behind the exiting system to 
the east early this afternoon. Expect a mix of sun and clouds 
through the remainder of the day and early evening. A robust marine 
layer will fill in across much of our area overnight, with rapid 
clearing by late morning into early afternoon Wednesday, as the 
ridging pattern takes hold. Temperatures Wednesday will increase 
around 5-10 degrees higher than todays values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Confidence is high in ridging maintaining its hold on our synoptic 
pattern through the extended forecast and beyond. The warmup that 
sets in tomorrow is gradual through the remainder of the work week, 
with a more notable increase this upcoming weekend. As the ridge 
becomes more prominent by the end of the week we'll see the marine 
layer retreat back closer to the coast and compress, but not all the 
way offshore. Ensemble clusters are relatively tightly packed 
through mid-May wrt the ridging pattern and above normal 
temperatures. Our entire area is currently in Minor HeatRisk on 
Saturday with portions of our interior in Moderate HeatRisk Sunday 
and Monday. That trend should persist past the current forecast 
period as well. However, there are hints for some relief in the same 
ensemble clusters with troughing in the E Pacific at our latitude 
headed into the 3rd week of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026

Moisture wrapping around the backside of the departing upper low
has kept widespread strato-cu over the terminals. CIGs range from
3-4k ft. Current thinking is strato-cu will fade as the sun sets
and marine layer stratus will form...there could be a brief period
where some SCT occurs. The developed stratus will last through
Wednesday mid to late morning.  

Vicinity of SFO...VFR CIGs with MVRF CIGs developing this evening
and lasting into the AM rush.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR CIGs with MVRF CIGs developing this evening
and lasting into Wednesday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 957 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026

The gradient between high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and
lower pressure over the western United States will support a
gentle northwest breeze and moderate seas through Wednesday. This
gradient will gradually tighten from Thursday through Saturday,
causing winds to increase to a strong breeze and building rough
seas for the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 5 18:30:03 PDT 2026