FXUS66 KMTR 031151
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
451 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - Relatively weak cold front pushes south through our area today

 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds this afternoon and tonight

 - Notable cool down for the weekend into the beginning of next
   week remains on track

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026 
(Today and tonight)

The effects of a progressive, short wave upper trough beginning to 
transect our area to the north overnight are already being felt over 
the North Bay with drier air mixing closer to the surface and likely 
to hold off a deeper marine layer push into some of the North Bay 
valleys for the remainder of the overnight into early Wednesday 
morning. Where the marine layer does make inroads tonight, we'll see 
clearing a little sooner than what we saw on Tuesday. While clearing 
is expected along the coast, the strengthening onshore flow will 
maintain influence across coastal areas, so dropped highs a few 
degrees from NBM for most of the immediate coast line, and may need 
to be lowered further based on trends later this morning. Otherwise 
temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer inland than Tuesday, 
except for the North Bay where the temps will jump into the 80s to 
low 90s. 

As the upper trough shifts east later this afternoon, gradient 
forcing becomes better aligned for strengthening northwest onshore 
flow area wide, with gusty winds developing this afternoon into the 
evening hours, especially for higher elevations and channeled 
valleys. There's some uncertainty in just how far the marine layer 
will progress inland tonight into early Thursday morning. A drier 
airmass in the wake of the cold front and easing winds after 
midnight may somewhat limit the marine layer's inland progress 
despite the marine layer slightly strengthening just offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Not much change in the extended forecast with only subtle variations 
in daytime highs Thursday and Friday, especially inland. We begin 
feeling the influence of the deepening trough along the Pacific 
Coastline later in the day on Friday. H85 temps peak in the low 
20s(C) Thursday and Friday and are down to around 14C-16C for the 
weekend into next week, which will result in surface temperatures 
around 5-10 degrees below normal for the weekend into the beginning 
of next week. There is a signal for some potential unimpactful light 
rain later Monday into Tuesday, there is poor consensus in 
deterministic guidance evolves the timing and position of the 
trough. However, ensemble guidance provides high confidence in the 
overall synoptic troughing persisting beyond the current extended 
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR with high clouds streaming in 
from the north. A dry cold front will add complexity to the 
forecast with the aforementioned high clouds and an increase in 
onshore winds that'll result in mixing of the atmosphere. Onshore 
winds will increase through the day with gusts of 20-30 knots 
expected this afternoon and evening. Relatively lower confidence 
in the forecast, especially in the return of stratus tonight. 
Guidance/models suggest that it'll be a later arrival than what 
has been happening with ceilings likely in the low-end MVFR 
range. Highest confidence along the coast with lowest confidence 
in the interior. 

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence 
in VFR by late-morning in the 16Z-17Z timeframe. Westerly winds will 
increase through the day with gusts of 30-35 knots likely this 
afternoon and evening. Moderate (45%) confidence in a ceiling 
returning to the terminal tonight - it'll likely be low-end MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY 
and IFR with westerly flow at SNS. Fog is being observed across the 
Central Coast so there is the potential for both terminals to 
further deteriorate this morning, but confidence is low. Moderate 
(60%) confidence on ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning to 
the terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 449 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected at least through
Saturday due to strong northerly breezes. Gale force gusts are
expected for the outer waters and the coastal jet regions.
Moderate seas will prevail today, building to become rough
tomorrow and into the weekend. Conditions will slowly begin to
improve Sunday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT 
     Thursday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to 
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jun 3 06:30:02 PDT 2026