FXUS66 KMTR 071151
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
351 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

 - Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

 - Unsettled weather returns by late next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

The warming and drying trend continues! High pressure remains over 
the region through the weekend resulting in maximum temperatures to 
reach 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle to moderate offshore flow 
persists across the higher terrain and gradually diminishes by 
Sunday. This coincides with when a cold front is forecast to 
propagate across the Pacific Northwest with no direct impacts to our 
area. At most, the incoming system will support a prominent onshore 
flow, allowing for increased low cloud cover across the Bay Area and 
portions of the Central Coast. The North Bay, San Francisco, and the 
Peninsula have the greatest chance of experiencing a subtle relief 
from the warm conditions, though it will be short-lived. Interior 
locations elsewhere continue to bask in the sun this weekend.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety 
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal 
Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure builds again with 
max temperatures up to 15 deg F above average through mid-week. 
Upstream, an open wave mid-level trough deepens as it approaches the 
West Coast as early as Thursday. Therefore, anticipate an increased 
chance for precipitation across the Bay Area and Central Coast as 
this system approaches our coastline. Ensemble model members and 
clusters tend to agree on a general troughing pattern late next 
week. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding 
the exact trajectory of this system as well as its moisture content. 
Tune in for more updates on next week's rain chances and impacts!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 338 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Clear skies and light winds with mostly VFR conditions this
morning except at fog magnets like STS. Will carry LIFR vis at STS
through mid morning. Could see a repeat again late tonight and
early Sunday for STS. Do expect stronger onshore winds to develop
this afternoon. High chc for CIGS to impact coastal areas and MRY
Bay tonight. Less chc inside SF Bay, but did carry SCT for OAK and
SFO.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the period. Low conf on CIGs Sunday
AM.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through early tonight. MVFR CIGS
likely after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Northwesterly moderate to fresh breezes will persist over the
coastal waters Saturday. Locally strong breezes will be possible
south of Point Sur. The sea state will remain elevated with
hazardous seas due to mixed swells and longer periods. Hazardous
conditions will likely continue into next week as seas build to
become very rough Sunday night into Monday before returning to
rough seas by Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 340 AM PST Oct Nov 7 2026

Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and
have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will
remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such,
large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will
be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at 
exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and 
bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the 
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, 
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave
activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show
additional swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion 
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding 
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San 
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high 
tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM 
Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM 
Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 
ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These 
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the 
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the 
San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell 
will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches 
with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher 
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would 
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance 
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. 
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Navarrete
LONG TERM....Navarrete
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 7 08:30:03 PST 2026