FXUS66 KMTR 081753
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
953 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026

 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight 
   conditions

 - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches through
   Friday and again early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026
(Today and tonight)

Some rain showers associated with a cold front are quickly sweeping 
from northwest to southeast across the region. Accumulation has been 
a few hundredths at most with wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range in the
higher terrain of the North Bay and East Bay. Activity is 
expected to be wrapped up by the afternoon which will give way to 
below normal temperatures and clear skies. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)

Surface high pressure will waste no time building in the cold 
front's wake, initially into the California/Oregon border before 
ultimately into the Great Basin. Simultaneously, a coastal trough 
will develop off the California Coast which will facilitate offshore 
flow. Calm, clear, and cool conditions with long nights is a recipe 
for radiational cooling. The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded 
for the Thursday night period from 1 AM to 9 AM Friday. An Extreme 
Cold Warning is in effect for the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and 
Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties. In these locations, sub-
freezing temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s can be expected. 
Most of the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast are under a Cold 
Weather Advisory during the same time. In these locations, 
temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. As a 
reminder, the Extreme Cold Watch, Cold Weather Advisory, and Extreme 
Cold Warning have recently been adopted to address cold impacts to 
humans throughout the year. Friday and Saturday are expected to be 
the coldest mornings of the period - the Central Coast is forecast 
to be coldest Friday morning while the Bay Area is forecast to be 
coldest Saturday morning. It's important to put all of this in 
context. 850 millibar temperatures can be used as a proxy for the 
air mass. At 12Z Friday, the 850 millibar temperature is forecast to 
be 8 degrees Celsius which is above the daily mean of 6.8 degrees 
Celsius for the date and time. This tells me that we are not dealing 
with a cold air mass. A lot of people have been asking if any record 
low temperatures will be broken and the answer is no as we simply do 
not have the air mass to support it and we have some very low 
temperatures to contend with. For example, SJC's daily record lowest 
minimum temperature record is 22 degrees set all the way back in 
1937 - they haven't gotten below 30 degrees since December 2013. 
Suffice it to say that it's going to be cold, but not record 
breaking cold. Confidence is high that an anomalously high amplitude 
upper-level longwave ridge will meander over the West Coast through 
Wednesday before retrograding west out over the Eastern Pacific 
Ocean. This will result in a warming trend of about 20 degrees in 
the next seven days. Overnight temperatures will respond 
accordingly, slowly beginning to warm up Sunday morning and 
continuing that trend through the forecast period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR expected through the TAF period with a slight chance of
reduced VIS at KSTS during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Otherwise a
light offshore wind pattern keeps things very tame across the
region with mostly clear skies and light to moderate E/NE winds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light offshore wind setup will keep things
quiet in terms of cloud cover. Most impactful thing for SFO will
be the wind direction overnight tonight and Friday morning. Not
anticipating winds above 08-10 kts at the moment, but direction
will most likely be NE.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. High confidence in mostly clear
skies with some high clouds entering the region by Friday morning.
Generally light offshore flow, especially during the overnight
hours when cold air drains out of the Salinas Valley.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 944 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026

Moderate to breezy winds are affecting the outer waters. A
building northwesterly swell is arriving and is causing a rough
sea state with shoaling near the coast, harbor entrances, and
bars. Winds and seas will ease Friday into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 350 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026

High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 10 pm Friday PST. 
Expect large breaking waves up to 22 feet, strong rip currents 
and sneaker waves from coastal Sonoma county to coastal Monterey 
county, excluding the northern Monterey Bay shoreline where a 
Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect. Large breaking waves 
can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury 
and increase the risk of drowning. 

Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Friday evening 
for the northern Monterey Bay shoreline. Expect hazardous beach 
conditions with strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and breaking 
waves up to 15 feet. This will result in dangerous conditions 
along the shoreline. 

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502-
     506-510-512-513-515-528>530.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ514-
     516>518.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jan 8 10:30:02 PST 2026