FXUS66 KMTR 012235
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
235 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding at high tide for the Bayshore through this 
   evening. 

 - Hazardous beach conditions late tonight through Tuesday evening

 - Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday

 - Light rain for the Bay Area and Santa Cruz County Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

An upper level low and associated cold front worked its way through 
the region this morning. Behind it a mix of sun and clouds, with 
cool temperatures peaking in the 60s for interior valley locations, 
upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and mid 50s to low 60s in the 
hills and mountains. As the sunsets, cumulus clouds should dissipate 
and onshore winds will ease. Guidance tonight shows high clouds 
moving in, which makes the forecast a bit interesting. Current 
thinking is that these will roll in and limit radiational cooling and 
radiational fog development. Kept the shot for patchy fog in the 
forecast for the interior valleys of the Bay Area, but it will be 
dependent on cloud cover and winds. High pressure continues to build 
in on Monday which will lead to slightly warmer temperatures and dry 
weather.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

A quick moving shortwave trough will bring light rain to Bay Area 
and Santa Cruz on Tuesday, with perhaps some showers making into 
northern Monterey and San Benito counties. Rainfall amounts look to 
be light and generally around 0.15-0.40" for the North Bay, and 0.05-
0.25" for the San Francisco Peninsula, East Bay, and Santa Cruz, and 
around 0.0-0.10" for Santa Clara County. south of that amounts in 
Monterey and San Benito are generally a couple hundredths of an inch 
or less. Once the this shortwave moves through, we'll see a mix of 
zonal flow and ridging builds behind it. This will lead to a warming 
and drying trend through the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Satellite imagery shows VFR conditions, the cold front out of our
region, and cumulus clouds left in its wake mainly south of the 
North Bay and most prevalent over the terrain. A few isolated 
showers remain over the waters, though a few may skirt along the 
Big Sur coastline through the early afternoon. Expect onshore 
winds for much of the region, with winds becoming light and 
southerly to variable overnight. Generally think VFR conditions 
should prevail, with some high clouds trying to sneak in early 
Monday morning. Should we keep enough breaks in the clouds, or 
they don't manifest, we could see some pockets of fog in the North
Bay valleys. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. 

Vicinity of SFO...Generally VFR conditions should prevail around 
SFO, with some cumulus clouds bubbling up along the nearby terrain. 
Winds should switch onshore by the afternoon, with perhaps a few 
gusts to 20-23kt this afternoon. Winds decrease after sunset, 
cumulus clouds should dissipate, with weak onshore flow overnight. 
Winds should shift to the south early Monday morning. Moderate to 
high confidence in the forecast. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today, 
as northwest winds lead to lingering cu over the region. Showers 
should hold for a few hours over the coastal waters, and may skirt 
the Big Sur Coastline. Otherwise dry conditions prevail and onshore 
winds return this afternoon. We may see some gusts to 15-20kt around 
KMRY and KSNS through the early evening. Winds then weaken, with 
south to southeast flow expected by Monday morning. Moderate to high 
confidence in the forecast. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 851 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rain showers generally south of Pigeon Point will continue this
morning and then taper out by the early afternoon. Moderate to
fresh winds have generally shifted to the north and northwest
behind the front, though some fresh to strong gusts will linger
through the afternoon and evening hours. Hazardous conditions for
small craft are expected and will ease from north to south.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will prevail,
building to become rough in the outer waters Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday 
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to 
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 1 16:30:03 PST 2026