FXUS66 KMTR 010723
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1223 AM PDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore through the
   Sunday
 
 - Hazardous Beach Conditions Monday and Tuesday

 - Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday

 - Potential for light rain Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

Popcorn shower activity focused over the interior CEntral Coast
earlier in the nigh has since faded or moved eastward into the 
Central.

Focus quickly turns westward as a low pressure is now entering the
northern coastal waters. The low pressure system and associated
frontal boundaries are producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms. KMUX radar even picked up some weak rotation with
the stronger cells, but they're pulsing on any rotation.
Environmental parameters show less instability and shear are 
present the closer one gets toward the coastline. As such, expect
the shower activity to hold together into Sunday mid- morning, 
but not expecting any thunderstorms over land. By Sunday afternoon
any showers will end with increasing sunshine. Rainfall amounts 
will be a trace to 0.25". Winds increase by the low pressure/cold 
front with breezy conditions at the coast. 

Coastal flooding remains possible along the bayshore locations of
the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday at
6 PM PST. 

Tonight through Monday - Winds ease overnight with clearing 
skies. Given the recent rain, decreasing winds, and clearing skies
patchy fog is possible Monday morning. Warmer and drier 
conditions to kick off the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sun Nov 1 2026 
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Upper level ridge moves eastward as another upper level low/trough
takes aim at the Bay Area Tuesday. As such, the next round of
rain, albeit light, will move Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
amounts with this system will be greatest over the North Bay with
amounts 0.10-0.30", Bay Area is less than 0.10", and Central 
Coast is trace to nothing. 

Thereafter, zonal flow to ridging develops by Wednesday and
continues into next weekend. If the forecast holds, temperatures
will return to the 70s by Friday possibly a few low 80s interior 
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently VFR. Rain showers are approaching from the west and will 
spread from northwest to southeast between now and 14Z. Low-end VFR 
ceilings with brief reductions to MVFR ceilings and visibilities can 
be expected with rain shower activity. Low probability for 
thunderstorms with the best chances over the waters and to the east 
of our area. After the cold front passes, skies will clear and winds 
will increase.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. Rain showers 
are approaching from the west and will likely arrive between 08Z and 
09Z with activity diminishing between 13Z and 14Z. Brief reductions 
in ceiling and visibility can be expected, likely in the MVFR 
category. After the rain showers pass, skies will clear and westerly 
winds will increase.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY 
and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Low-end VFR ceilings are expected 
through mid-morning tomorrow. Rain showers are approaching from the 
west and will likely arrive between 10Z and 11Z with activity 
diminishing between 13Z and 14Z. After the rain showers pass, skies 
will clear and drainage winds may briefly return before onshore 
winds increase late this morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1048 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Unsettled weather is possible over the waters tonight through
early Sunday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Otherwise, northwest gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas
will persist through the early next week. By mid- week, northwest
winds increase to fresh with building rough seas across the outer
waters. A long period southerly swell remains this weekend and
combines with a long period northwesterly swell on Monday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late Sunday night through Tuesday 
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...MM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 1 02:30:02 PST 2026