FXUS66 KMTR 130702
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1202 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

 - Continued hot and dry today for interior communities with Moderate
   HeatRisk.

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides 
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay 
   Area and Central California Coast.

 - Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk
   of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Overcast conditions are blanketing the entire Pacific coast along
Sonoma County through Monterey County this early Saturday morning.
The stratus has spilled through the Golden Gate, and is also
expanding through the Salinas Valley. Nearly all airports are
running cooler compared to this time 24 hours ago throughout the
region, including inland terminals such as Livermore and Concord.
The healthy onshore gradient of +3.4 mb from SFO to SAC will help
expand the stratus as he night progresses.

Upper-level ridge remains over the eastern Pacific with northwest
flow aloft prevailing over the Golden State. For this afternoon, 
expect seasonable temperatures along the immediate Pacific coast 
with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, while communities away from 
the oceanic influence will be much warmer in the 80s to near 100 
degrees for far inland locations. While there will be a few 
degrees of cooling realized today, HeatRisk for the interior East 
Bay and South Bay will remain in the Moderate category. As a 
result, a Heat Advisory continues for these locations through 7 PM
PDT this evening. 

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-
lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the
middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and
lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal
anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of
the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise
since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will
add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early
next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January
(peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the
highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7
ft from July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

By Sunday and Monday, the grasp of the eastern Pacific ridge will
fade as it flattens, courtesy of an Aleutian low. The end result
for us will be a subtle (and welcomed) day-to-day cooling for
interior communities and the usual June stratus along the Pacific
Coast. The ridge will attempt to rebuild around Tuesday/Wednesday,
which may mark the end of the cooling trend for inland areas. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Extensive stratus continues to blanket the coastal zones and  
adjacent valleys, locking these locations under a mix of LIFR 
ceilings. Surface visibilities have also declined with the 
densest pockets along the immediate coast. This marine stratus deck 
is projected to to hold firmly through the night before the diurnal 
clearing trend commences. Deep interior locations will remain 
decoupled from the marine influence which will maintain clear VFR 
conditions through the TAF period. Intermediate sites, including
KSTS, KSFO, and KOAK have moderate confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings
developing overnight before clearing mid-morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions prevail late this evening with
stratus entering through the Golden Gate. Moderate confidence in 
IFR ceilings developing early morning as low stratus expands 
through SF Bay. The marine layer will remain shallow, keeping 
ceilings low but also allowing stratus to burn off by mid morning 
(15-17Z). Light NW winds generally less than 10 kt will prevail 
overnight into the morning, increasing to 10-20 kt in the 
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions prevail late this evening
with stratus entering through the Golden Gate. Moderate 
confidence in IFR ceilings arriving at KOAK 08-11Z. VFR conditions
should return 15-17Z as a shallow marine layer burns off. 
Confidence is low that stratus will push all the way to KSJC, 
therefore VFR conditions are forecast through the morning. Winds 
will be light overnight, then pick up again in the afternoon out 
of the west to northwest 10-18 kt.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine layer restrictions are firmly 
established across the Monterey Bay terminals with both KMRY and 
KSNS currently locked under IFR/LIFR ceilings. Visibilities are 
expected to remain wider-ranging but there is potential for 
visibilities to range between IFR/MVFR through the overnight hours. 
Diurnal warming tomorrow will mix out cloud cover through the late 
morning to early afternoon. Winds will follow a typical coastal 
regime with KMRY light and variable overnight while SNS remains 
better established from the northwest down the valley. MRY will 
range back from the northwest in the late morning and afternoon as 
the onshore flow becomes re-established. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 946 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across most of the coastal waters.
However, small craft advisory conditions linger in the northern
outer waters where winds remain northerly through early Saturday
morning. Otherwise, the winds will remain fairly consistent
through the weekend as the seas subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, 
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach 
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply 
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, 
Santa Cruz counties. Hazardous beach conditions will expand to 
include Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay 
Area coast starting Saturday evening through Tuesday morning. Be 
sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves 
will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially 
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being 
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the 
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if 
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, 
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never 
turn your back to the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late 
     Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday 
     for CAZ505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Manion
MARINE...Tangen

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 13 00:30:02 PDT 2026