FXUS66 KMTR 151212
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
412 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

 - Rain arrives today through Monday

 - High surf conditions through Tuesday morning

 - Impactful system arriving Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Today and Monday)

High clouds are streaming over the Bay Area and Central Coast. These 
are precursors to a frontal band of rain stemming from a low that is 
situated off the coast of British Columbia. A glance at the radar 
returns from Eureka shows a preview of what we can expect, namely a 
period of steady if rather light rain coming through while an 
embedded narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) brings a burst of more 
intense rainfall. Later this morning, the front should enter the 
North Bay and crawl southwards, coming into the SF Bay Area in the 
afternoon hours and the South Bay and Monterey Bay regions during 
the evening. As the front crawls through the region, it decouples 
from the parent low, which travels northward towards Alaska, and a 
new low forms within the Great Basin. This might account for some of 
the slowing trend seen in the high resolution models, where the 
steady rainfall could linger late into the night. Areas of the 
interior East Bay, South Bay, and Central Coast could very well wake 
up on Monday morning to find that the steady rain continues to 
impact their morning commutes. Meanwhile, scattered post-frontal 
showers are possible along the coastal areas behind the front. The 
band of rain moves out of the interior Central Coast Monday 
afternoon. Winds will continue to flow from the south until the 
front passes over, when to will switch to the northwest. Wind 
impacts will not be as strong as those from last Friday's system; 
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible along the coast, through favored 
gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines. Rainfall totals from this 
system range from 1-1.25" in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, 0.5-1" in 
the central SF Bay Area, Sonoma and Marin Counties, and Santa Cruz 
County, 0.25-0.5" in the interior East Bay and southern Santa Clara 
Valley, and the northern parts of the Central Coast, and 0.1-0.25" 
in the southern reaches of Monterey County. 

Lows this morning will range from the middle to upper 40s in the 
inland valleys, the upper 30s to lower 40s in the coldest spots of 
the interior Central Coast, the upper 40s to lower 50s near the 
Bays, and the middle 50s near the Pacific coast. Highs today will 
lie in the middle to upper 60s for the lower elevations of the 
Central Coast and SF Bay Area south of the Golden Gate and Carquinez 
Strait, the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Bay valleys, and 
the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. On Monday, morning 
lows drop to the lower to middle 40s in the North Bay valleys, while 
highs in the lower elevations will cool to the upper 50s to lower 
60s. 

A High Surf Warning continues through 4 AM this morning, with a High 
Surf Advisory extending from that time out through Tuesday morning 
as breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet are still coming through the 
waters. Favored breakpoints could see waves of 25 to 35 feet. These 
waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on Saturday, which 
ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier, 
but remain hazardous to potential swimmers, could still knock 
unaware people into the water, and continue to feed an increased 
risk of rip currents. Hopefully the rainfall will discourage too 
much beach travel, but those who do travel to the beach are strongly 
encouraged to stay away from the water's edge, keep off of rocks, 
jetties, and piers, and never turn their backs to the ocean. See the 
BEACHES section for more information.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
(Monday night through Saturday)

A lull in the rainfall arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with highs 
remaining cool across the region. Cold temperature products (Frost 
Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) are possible for Tuesday 
morning, as lows in the inland valleys drop into the middle 30s to 
lower 40s, which could bring dangerous conditions to people living 
outdoors and sensitive plants, especially when combined with the 
recent rainfall making the body feel cooler.

Another system comes into the region beginning late Tuesday and 
continuing into Wednesday, Thursday, and potentially early Friday. 
This system is looking to be more impactful than the previous two. 
On one hand, the associated low pressure system is expected to slow 
down as it approaches California. The frontal rain band would thus 
move slower as well, allowing for more rainfall to accumulate at any 
particular location. On the other hand, as the low comes into the 
state, it brings with it a strong jet at the 500 mb level that's 
aimed at the northern half of California. Model guidance suggests 
that the jet could bring winds of 60 to 70 knots aloft as it comes 
across the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. This would support wind 
gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the valley floors and raise the possibility 
of Wind Advisories for the coastal, Bayshore, and higher elevation 
regions. In addition, with prior rainfall from the systems that came 
before the midweek system arrives, flooding concerns will increase 
as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. This is in 
addition to a model trend of remarkably higher rainfall totals 
across the region from this system compared to the one we saw last 
Friday and the one that's expected to arrive today. Although there's 
still time for the final rain total to fluctuate, the current 
forecast suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across much of the Bay Area 
and Central Coast while the coastal ranges see 3 to 5 inches of 
rain. As a final note, the chance for thunderstorms has also 
continued to increase and probabilities reach as high as 20-30% 
during Wednesday and Thursday. The synoptic setup would favor 
convective activity with a cold core low right over or very close to 
the Bay Area and Central Coast, robust moisture flow, and the 
combination of frontal and terrain-driven lift.

The weather pattern remains active towards the end of, and beyond, 
the seven day outlook, with a lean towards precipitation totals 
above seasonal averages into the final week of November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

A parade of high clouds continues to stream across the region as the 
cold front nears our forecast area. A few scattered rain showers 
have already developed offshore and are moving inland towards the 
North Bay. As a result, light rain showers will impact North Bay 
terminals first and gradually spread across the rest of the Bay Area 
and Central Coast. Ceiling heights will lower and visibility will 
reduce with the onset of rain over the terminals. Low to medium 
confidence on exact ceiling heights, though they are expected to 
remain MVFR to VFR. Breezy southerly winds prevail ahead of the main 
rainband, then shift northwest right behind it. Light rain showers 
persist through the remainder of the TAF period into Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with moderate southerly winds through the 
morning. The first rain showers are expected to impact the terminal 
early this afternoon, resulting in decreased visibility and MVFR 
ceilings. West to northwest winds develop around the same time and 
remain breezy into the evening. Low confidence for SFO to experience 
occasional gusts up to 25 kt through the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for the majority of the day with 
moderate south to southwesterly breezes. Light rain showers reach 
the terminals tonight between 03Z-06Z (7-10 PM PST). Medium 
confidence on the exact onset of these rain showers. Once they 
develop though, they will persist into Monday morning with MVFR or 
borderline MVFR-VFR ceilings. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly breezes continue across the coastal
waters ahead of the cold front. Scattered light rain showers over
the northern waters become widespread throughout the day. After
the  frontal passage, northwest moderate to fresh winds develop.
Very  hazardous marine conditions and high northwest seas persist
through  early Tuesday morning, with significant wave heights
between 15 to  20 feet. Seas subside slightly on Tuesday before
building again by  Wednesday. This coincides with when a strong
low pressure system  moves into the coastal waters resulting in
widespread rain, near  gale to gale force winds, and potential for
thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

A High Surf Advisory is in effect now through Tuesday morning. 
Long period swells 12 to 16 feet high at 14 to 16 seconds are 
still coming through the coastal waters. Through the Advisory 
period, breaking waves of 20-25 feet are expected with occasional 
sets of 25-35 feet likely at favored breakpoints, including 
Mavericks Beach. These waves are less energetic than the ones we 
saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and 
damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential 
swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and 
continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. The risk of 
drowning remains high. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on 
the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on 
the ocean.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
     530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this 
     afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 15 04:30:04 PST 2026