FXUS66 KMTR 011249
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
449 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 341 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

 - Cooler today with very light rain returning to the North Bay
   and Pacific Coast later today, tonight and Monday morning

 - Above normal temperatures with elevated winds and offshore 
   flow mid to late week

 - Potentially hazardous marine conditions late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 449 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
(Today and tonight)

The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.9 mb. Fresh onshore winds from
the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere continue 
to bring cooler air inland. Satellite shows areas of low clouds 
forming in the cooler air intrusion across the Bay Area and north 
Central Coast. Mid to high level clouds continue to move in from 
the southwest. 24 hour surface temperature trends are solidly 
cooler including across the higher elevations with widespread 50s 
and a few spots in the mid to upper 40s. 500 mb height ridging is 
to our east. A closed 500 mb low is ~ 500 miles west-northwest of 
San Francisco and it's forecast to move east across northern 
California tonight and Monday morning. Cooler air with the low 
will bring a chance of wet weather and a slight chance of 
thunderstorms mainly tonight and Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 449 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
(Monday through Saturday)

Light measurable precipitation chances from the North Bay to the
San Francisco Peninsula, including part of the East Bay south to 
the Big Sur Coast Monday morning decrease by Monday afternoon. 500
mb height ridging arrives from the west Monday night and Tuesday. 
Cooler air with surface high pressure arrives Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. From mid to late week surface high pressure 
over the eastern Pacific will steadily strengthen bringing our 
coastal waters gusty northwest winds with land overlap of gusty 
northwest winds. For Friday and Saturday recent ECMWF and GFS 
ensemble means forecast a 7 mb to 9 mb WMC-SFO pressure gradient 
supporting moderate offshore winds. Guidance shows 925 mb and 850 
mb northerly to northeasterly winds increasing from mid to mostly 
late week. If this synoptic pattern verifies it would result in 
dry conditions and downsloping gusty winds to the coastline with 
the potential for larger diurnal temperature ranges from cool/chilly
morning lows (if the valleys decouple from winds aloft) to ~ 10F 
above early March normal daytime highs to the mid to upper 70s if 
not Friday then Saturday perhaps on Sunday too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

Conditions vary from LIFR-IFR to VFR with areas of low clouds 
forming in a cooler air intrusion on onshore winds. Steady cool 
air advection up through 925 mb and 850 mb levels will continue to
weaken the lower level temperature inversion today, tonight and 
Monday. A steady weakening of the temperature inversion, diurnal 
surface warming and mixing will allow better chances of VFR from 
late morning through the afternoon. Light measurable precipitation
with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions develop tonight and Monday 
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR conditions to 16z then increasing mixing
today improves conditions to VFR. Light drizzle with a mix of IFR
and MVFR tonight and Monday morning. West wind near 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /IFR/ lifting to MVFR by late
morning. MVFR-IFR with areas of light drizzle developing tonight
and Monday morning. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms return
late tonight into Monday morning mainly over the northern waters.
Seas continue to abate until mid-week. However by late week, high
pressure strengthening over the eastern Pacific will likely result
in northwest winds to gale force and steepening seas over 12 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Mar 1 06:30:03 PST 2026