FXUS66 KMTR 232330
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
430 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

 - Above normal temperatures will persist through the week into
   the weekend

 - Dry weather through 7 day outlook; potential for light rain
   beginning of April

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

The heat wave is over but temperatures continue to run 10-15
degrees today, some elevated interior locations may see highs 20
degrees above normal by the end of the afternoon. The ridge that
brought the record breaking heat last week has shifted to the
southeast over the desert southwest, however it continues dominate
our pattern and daily forecast. The ridge axis will continue to
build back up over California for the remainder of today and
tonight, then pivot eastward Tuesday. Tuesday will be slightly
warmer than today, but barely noticeable. Overnight lows will 
also run 5-10 degrees above normal for most locations, tonight and
through the remainder of the extended forecast. The stable 
environment will provide pleasant weather with mostly clear skies,
especially away from the coast. Weak onshore flow will result in 
pockets of marine stratus overnight along the coast, but will 
struggle to move very far inland with the ridge still firmly in 
control. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

A progressive trough will weaken the western periphery of the
H50 height field through the middle of the week, with only slight
declines in daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. The marine layer
quickly increase late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as
the progressive trough tracks inland. The ridge rebounds on
Thursday and starts to build back offshore bringing back warmer
temperatures and compressing the marine layer once again Friday.
The offshore troughing expected as the longwave pattern becomes
more amplified will result in the reemergence of the marine layer
over the weekend into next week. There is a signal for some 
rainfall the first half of next week, but confidence is low that
it will bring much in the way of wetting rainfall for our area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal 
winds prevailing. The primary exception is STS which currently has 
an optimistic persistence forecast - if winds become calm, it's 
possible that shallow fog could develop again. Haze will reduce 
slant range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence 
in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and 
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and 
diurnal winds prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Moderate north to north-northwest winds continue this afternoon
and will decrease to gentle winds Tuesday. Conditions will
deteriorate through the day Wednesday as a strong to near gale
force northerly breeze develops and continues through Thursday.
Very rough seas of 12-17 feet build in response to these winds for
exposed waters by Thursday morning. Winds should become fresh to
strong late Thursday, with moderate to fresh winds anticipated for
Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Mar 23 18:30:02 PDT 2026