FXUS66 KMTR 100038
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
438 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

 - Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled
   weather returns late week into next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return
   late week into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)

Upper level ridging prevails over the West Coast (and most of the 
United States) heading into Tuesday. Expect foggy conditions to 
develop across the North Bay Valleys, along the San Francisco and 
San Pablo Bayshores and bays, the delta, and potentially the 
interior East Bay Valleys. The conditions are favorable for fog to 
develop again tonight with decent moisture and good overnight 
radiational cooling thanks to a lack of mid/high level clouds. 
Bayshore locations and any mariners on the San Francisco/San Pablo 
Bays or the Delta should be prepared for fog, likely dense, to 
develop early Tuesday morning. If driving, remember to slow down and 
allow extra time to reach your destination. If boating in fog, turn 
on all running lights, slow down, and listen for any other boats 
that may be nearby. As of 1PM Monday, visibilities are still 
struggling to improve along portions of the bay shoreline from this 
morning's fog. Tomorrow will likely be similar with reduced 
visibilities and patchy fog persisting into the late morning/early 
afternoon hours.

Despite early morning fog, high temperatures will warm back into the 
70s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast by Tuesday 
afternoon. This is brought to us by persistent upper level ridging 
over the Western US and 850 mb temperatures around 12-16 C. While 
pleasantly warm, these temperatures are around 10 degrees above 
normal for this time of year. Morning low temperatures remain in the 
50s with slightly cooler lows in the 40s across the North Bay. While 
the high temperatures don't make it feel like winter is coming, 
there is a pattern change expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)

Upper level ridging and above normal temperatures continue Wednesday 
and Thursday. High temperatures remain in the 70s on Wednesday 
across the interior but trend cooler on Thursday (dropping into the 
60s to low 70s). Coastal areas remain constant in the 60s to low 
70s. Unsettled weather returns Friday and brings with it a host of 
topics to discuss. Upper level ridging will be replaced by a deep 
upper level trough pushing into the West Coast. Temperatures will 
cool, becoming more seasonal to seasonally cool. Interior highs will 
be in the mid to upper 60s Friday/Saturday before dropping into the 
low 60s Sunday/Monday. Coastal areas will be in the upper 50s to mid 
60s. Overnight lows will cool as well with high temperatures 
gradually dropping into the 40s to upper 30s across the region.

Initially it looked as though we could see rain as early as 
Wednesday/Thursday but those chances have evaporated - thanks to a 
cutoff low splitting from the main trough and pushing into Southern 
California and avoiding us. Rain chances now increase Friday into 
the weekend with beneficial rain expected across the Bay Area and 
Central Coast. The active period looks to continue well past Monday 
with ensemble guidance highlighting many additional troughs/rounds 
of rain arriving during the second half of the month. No major 
flooding concerns are expected with this weekend's storm but that 
may change over the next few weeks if we do see several rounds of 
storms over a short time frame. There is even a low (5-12%) chance 
of thunderstorms this weekend as the bulk of the rain moves in. 
Gusty winds (30-40 mph) are likely as the front passes. The current 
forecast stays below Wind Advisory criteria but that will be 
something to keep an eye on as we head closer to the weekend. Now 
would be a good time to secure any outdoor decorations or bring in 
any outdoor furniture. If you have any other winter/rain 
preparations to do (i.e. clearing your gutters, power outage prep, 
trimming tree limbs) make sure to do it before Friday. 

Hazardous beach conditions return late week into the weekend as long 
period NW swell and large breaking waves. The current forecast has 
wave heights between 18 to 22 feet across the outer waters which 
will bring hazardous conditions for mariners. Beachgoers will also 
experience hazardous conditions due to large breaking waves, sneaker 
waves, and strong rip currents. This is not a good weekend to go to 
the beach.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Quiet weather and VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, 
with satellite imagery showing high clouds overhead. Expect these 
conditions to continue through the evening hours and early overnight 
hours before another round of fog and low clouds return. Models seem 
to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR vis for KSTS, KOAK, 
and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior sites like KAPC and even 
KSFO. Fog may begin developing as early 06-07Z for STS and then last 
until roughly 17-19Z. For KOAK and KSJC develop looks to occur a 
little later, closer to 10Z and likely faltering to LIFR around 
sunrise. Fog and low clouds should erode near between 17-19Z leading 
to another VFR afternoon.  


Vicinity of SFO...No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it 
appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud 
development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR 
vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi-
res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR, 
REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of 
any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions 
prevail. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to 
develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR 
cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and 
gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing 
should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19-
20Z. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore flow will continue for the evening, 
before weak offshore flow returns to the forecast. This should be 
enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR overnight, though some 
guidance a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS again. Kept 
the hint at any development in the TAF, with the return of onshore 
flow by the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Rough to very rough seas will persist through this evening,
beginning to gradually subside overnight through the middle of the
week with moderate to fresh northerly breezes. Sea state will
become  dynamic once again by the second half of the work week
into next  weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18
seconds late  in the forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 330 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show 
the moderate swell and moderate period continue to produce an
energetic surf zone. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, 
and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 
to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at 
favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents 
and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the 
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from 
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, 
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if 
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and 
never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave 
activity midweek, but longer range forecasts show additional 
swells impacting the coast next weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 
ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft 
above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These 
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the 
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San 
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will 
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an 
increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. 

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much 
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this 
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if 
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring 
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability 
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an 
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Nov 9 18:30:03 PST 2026