FXUS66 KMTR 112311
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

 - Well above normal temperatures through the forecast period

 - Widespread minor HeatRisk through Saturday, areas of moderate 
   HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Sunny sky conditions prevail across the Bay Area and Central 
Coast this afternoon as high pressure from the west builds into 
the region. Coastal locations are a bit cooler and may not reach 
their forecast maximum temperatures this afternoon as a shallow 
marine layer and onshore flow remains in place at the coast. 
However, inland areas are likely to reach into the low-to-upper 
70s with a few warmer inland spots approaching 80 degrees F. 
Overnight, mostly clear conditions will prevail as temperatures 
drop into the mid 40s to low 50s. 

For Thursday afternoon, the warming trend continues across the 
interior with upper 70s to mid 80s as the high pressure aloft 
continues to build eastward. Again, there is only moderate 
confidence for coastal areas to reach their forecast maximum 
temperatures. This is as onshore flow and a shallow marine layer 
potentially limits the amount of daytime heating. Additionally, 
high clouds are forecast to stream inland across the region. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

A subtle upper level shortwave through will temporarily put a 
pause on the warming trend Friday, yet temperatures will remain 
5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. This will result in minor 
HeatRisk across much of the region through Saturday when more 
interior areas reach the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The high pressure will continue to build overhead the Bay Area 
and Central Coast by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Monday and 
Tuesday are likely to be the days in which we would issue Heat 
Advisories as HeatRisk rise to moderate levels, especially across 
the interior. However, we will continue to monitor this heat event
as it approaches. 

From previous forecaster: "Even with the uncertainty, global 
ensemble clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be 
dealing with anomalously high heights through Thursday of next 
week. To put this into context, we will be in record breaking 
territory Sunday through Tuesday. This is not just with 
temperatures (read the CLIMATE section below), but monthly records
for 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights which are both good 
indicators for the type of air mass that we are dealing with. 
Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on Saturday will give way 
to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday. To mitigate 
your risk: reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the 
day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool place during the 
heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the 
day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air moving and 
open windows at night."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Gentle to moderate northwest winds 
continue through the evening hours, with winds becoming light and 
variable overnight before moderate onshore flow resumes Thursday 
afternoon. Beyond the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a 
shallow marine layer to form late Thursday night into Friday 
morning, with stratus impacts generally limited to the immediate 
coast, although there is low to moderate confidence that stratus 
makes it as far as OAK and SJC.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Currently observed 
winds are light from the northeast, but have elected to keep the 
prevailing forecast of moderate northwest winds for now as latest 
high resolution model guidance suggests that they will form soon and 
last through the evening. Winds become light after midnight before 
breezy onshore flow returns Thursday afternoon into the evening. 
Beyond the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a shallow marine 
layer to form late Thursday night into Friday morning, with a low 
confidence for stratus impacts at the terminal. 

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds 
will continue through the evening hours, with moderate breezes at 
SNS. Light winds develop overnight and persist through Thursday 
morning, with onshore flow returning during the afternoon. Beyond 
the TAF period, monitoring the potential for a shallow marine layer 
to form late Thursday night into Friday morning, with low to 
moderate confidence of stratus impacts to MRY.
&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 411 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect breezy to gusty north winds across the outer waters to
continue to cause rough seas. These winds will last through the
weekend with some of the inner waters being affected over the
weekend itself. Winds and seas ease into the next work week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 12th, 15th, 16th and 17th.

Location         Mar 12      Mar 15      Mar 16      Mar 17

Santa Rosa       83 in 2007  88 in 2004  91 in 2004  87 in 1996
San Rafael       81 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 1972  84 in 1972
Kentfield        83 in 2005  85 in 2004  86 in 2004  87 in 1914
Napa             86 in 2005  86 in 2004  88 in 2004  92 in 1914
Richmond         81 in 2005  85 in 2004  84 in 1972  83 in 2004
Livermore        84 in 1916  83 in 1972  88 in 1972  87 in 1972
San Francisco    79 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  85 in 1914
SFO Airport      77 in 2007  81 in 2004  82 in 2004  82 in 2004
Redwood City     83 in 2005  84 in 2004  84 in 2004  85 in 2004
Half Moon Bay    75 in 2014  74 in 1974  78 in 1972  83 in 2004
Oakland Museum   80 in 2007  85 in 2004  85 in 2004  85 in 2004
San Jose         81 in 2007  82 in 2004  85 in 1914  88 in 1914
Salinas Airport  83 in 2007  83 in 1972  87 in 2004  87 in 2004

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 11 18:30:03 PDT 2026