FXUS66 KMTR 020002
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
402 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the week

 - Minor coastal flooding through Monday during high astronomical
   tide for bayshore locations along the northern San Francisco 
   Bay and San Pablo Bay

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday at Pacific Coast
   beaches

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
(This evening through Monday)

It's another warm afternoon with some passing high clouds and 
slightly better onshore flow to prevent highs from getting as warm 
as yesterday. Temperatures are set to peak in the upper 50s along 
the coast, 60s for the the areas more inland, and into the 70s for 
the far interior. Winds continue to be mostly light across the 
region.

The overnight offers more of the same compared to last night and 
this morning with lows reducing only by a few degrees across much 
of the area. Interior valleys do look to fall into the upper 30s 
while most areas see the 40s overnight. Small increases in overnight 
humidities look to offer better chances for North and East Bay fog 
overnight, with some hints for fog around the Santa Clara Valley 
later into the night. This fog looks to be longer lasting in these 
areas as well, with fog chances lasting into the late morning.

Despite of the late clearing, temperatures warm at a good rate for 
Monday afternoon with forecasted highs expected to be near or 
slightly warmer than our Sunday highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The warming trend hits its stride in the mid week as the jet 
stream's ridge pattern strengthens and tightens while the ridge axis 
tilts eastward. This will lead to lighter to still winds, and a few 
areas of offshore flow. The mix of more stagnant air, clear skies, 
and drying conditions will lead to highs to peak in the 60s and 70s 
by Tuesday. Then a fairly well defined Rex Block will form over the 
west coast the mid week, with the high pressure portion centered 
over California. This will cal for even warmer temperatures, drying 
humidities, and weak winds. Wednesday afternoon looks to be the 
warmest of the forecast with Widespread 70s south of the SF Bay and 
in the interior North Bay, while the bay shoreline and Pacific coast 
see the upper 60s.

The Rex Block weakens and shifts east for Thursday, causing slight 
decreases in temperatures that day, and then increased onshore flow 
returns that night, leading to cooler temperatures for Friday and 
into the weekend. 

Longer term model and ensemble guidance show a trough and front 
building in the Pacific and moving toward the coast into the 
weekend. Models are struggling with the depth of this trough, but 
some are showing that it's southward push will be enough to offer 
rain for the Bay Area along the cold front on Sunday or Monday. For 
now this rain doesn't look to be very impactful, and the spread of 
timing offered by the models hints that the time of arrival could be 
pushed further into the next work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with the
exception of the North Bay and East Bay valleys that continue to
see patchy fog development in close vicinity of KSTS, KAPC and
KLVK overnight through mid-morning Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast
period with a slight chance of MVFR/IFR stratus development late
tonight through mid-morning Monday. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the
forecast period with weak offshore flow tonight into Monday, when
weak onshore flow returns Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 343 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions return today with building seas and
increasing northerly winds. Conditions improve Tuesday with
moderate seas and a gentle northerly breeze prevailing through
Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Rowe

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Feb 1 20:30:03 PST 2026