FXUS66 KMTR 271208
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
408 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Well above normal temperatures through Saturday

- Brief, slight cooling trend Sunday and Monday

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 142 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
(Today and tonight)

The 00Z sounding observed an 850 mb temperature of 13.00 degrees 
Celsius which is above the 90th percentile (12.8 degrees Celsius) 
for the date and time. Upper-level shortwave ridging will get pushed 
into the region today by an upper-level cutoff low on its heels. At 
the surface, high pressure across the Intermountain West and a 
coastal trough off the California Coast will generate light offshore 
flow. All of the above will be contributing factors to temperatures 
climbing to 15 degrees above normal. Today will be the warmest day 
of the week and the warmest day of the forecast period. To limit 
heat-realted impacts, people should increase water intake, reduce 
time spent outdoors or stay in the shade when the sun is the 
strongest, and open windows at night and use fans to bring cooler 
air inside buildings. To put this heat into context, SJC maximum 
temperature is forecast to be 78 degrees (previous record 79 degrees 
set in 1932, 1972, and 2020).

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 407 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

Heights begin to fall Saturday as the upper-level cutoff low comes 
into the periphery. This will kickoff a brief, slight cooling trend; 
however, temperatures on Saturday will still be ten degrees above 
normal. Slight (15%) chances for precipitation remain Sunday into 
Monday with the passage of the upper-level shortwave trough - 
chances will be greater the farther north the location. Global 
ensemble clusters generally keep us dry with less than 0.10" for the 
wettest solutions. Even if it doesn't rain, an increase in cloud 
cover is expected with coastal drizzle possible. Conditions will be 
noticeably cooler with the return of near normal temperatures and 
onshore flow. There's also a less than 10% chance for thunderstorms. 
The three ingredients necessary for thunderstorm development of 
lift, instability, and moisture will be present, albeit with low 
CAPE (accompanied by CIN) and conditionally unstable lapse rates. 
The limiting factor in this case will likely be them not aligning 
spatially and/or temporally as depicted in point forecast model 
soundings. Upper-level shortwave ridging will nose in from the 
Eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday before quickly getting shoved 
eastward by a following upper-level shortwave trough that will dig 
into the Great Basin. Sensible weather wise this will translate to 
near to slightly above normal temperatures for the end of the 
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

It's VFR at the airports. A patch or two of mist/fog may develop
in the North Bay valleys this morning, otherwise high clouds continue
to move through a strong 500 mb height ridge.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light and variable wind periodically light
northeast today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. East to southeast winds 5 to 10 
knots becoming northwest 10 knots mid to late afternoon. East to 
southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mostly light winds are expected across the waters through the
weekend and early next week. Localized fresh gusts will affect
the southern waters today but look to dissipate into the weekend.
Low to moderate seas continue into next week. There is a chance
of drizzle to light rain across the northernmost waters this
weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term 
sites for Friday, Feb 27th and Saturday, Feb 28th.

Location         Feb 27th Record High       Feb 28th Record High 

Santa Rosa       90 in 1923                 93 in 1923
San Rafael       74 in 1954                 78 in 2025
Kentfield        79 in 1932, 1923           78 in 1929, 1923
Napa             80 in 1932                 81 in 1929
Richmond         78 in 2020                 77 in 1986
Livermore        79 in 1932                 82 in 2022
San Francisco    78 in 2002, 1992, 1986     76 in 1992, 1986
SFO Airport      76 in 2020                 73 in 1959
Redwood City     79 in 2025, 1932           77 in 2025
Half Moon Bay    78 in 1986                 74 in 1954
Oakland Museum   78 in 2002                 75 in 2025
San Jose         79 in 2020, 1992, 1932     77 in 2025, 1926
Salinas Airport  84 in 2025                 81 in 2022

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 27 08:30:03 PST 2026