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NWS Technical Weather Discussion


FXUS66 KMTR 301601
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
901 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Temperatures return closer to normal today, then climb slightly
   above normal for Sunday into beginning of next week

 - Cooler than normal temperatures may return by end of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

Widespread low clouds reached well into most valley locations across 
the Bay Area and Central Coast overnight and into early this 
morning. These clouds have been slow to dissipate this morning, yet 
still expecting them to dissipate by late morning and into the early 
afternoon. Thus, temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 50s 
to middle 60s in northwest facing coastal areas while the interior 
warms into the low-to-upper 70s. The warmest interior spots have a 
greater than 60% probability of reaching 80 deg F, such as the 
southern Salinas Valley and far interior East Bay (Byron and 
Brentwood to name a few). Keeping a close eye on the potential for 
stratus to return overnight and into Sunday morning. Latest guidance 
suggest the greatest potential is around the Monterey Bay region and 
along the San Francisco Peninsula, and less so into the interior 
valleys. 

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(Today and tonight)

Quiet weather with weak progressive ridging aloft overnight, 
becoming primarily zonal through the day today will help lift 
temperatures close to normal for this time of year. The marine layer 
has returned and is well established for the remainder of the 
overnight through mid-morning. Coastal areas should see the marine 
layer lift by late morning with mostly sunny skies area wide for the 
remainder of the afternoon and early evening. The marine layer will 
once again fill back in later tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

The progressive and relatively weak longwave synoptic pattern across 
our latitude will keep the weather quiet, temperatures similar on
a day-to-day basis Sunday through Thursday with slightly above 
normal temperatures and breezy diurnal wind fluctuations with 
onshore flow. Confidence continues to increase for a more 
organized and deeper synoptic troughing pattern for the end of 
next week and beyond. Although it appears any rain would be well 
to our north attm, the pattern would keep temperatures below 
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus prevails across the region and will dissipate 
through the post-sunrise hours. Breezy northwest winds will develop 
across the region this afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 
around 15 knots. Winds will diminish in the late evening hours. High 
resolution models are showing less stratus coverage overnight into 
Sunday morning when compared to the current setup. This makes sense 
given a developing ridge and consequent marine layer compression, 
but the exact extent is hard to pin down this early.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings through the morning with strong 
gusts developing in the afternoon and evening hours, as gusts to 25 
knots are expected. Not expecting gusts above 35 knots at this time. 
Confidence in stratus coverage overnight through Sunday morning is 
low. If it occurs, IFR-LIFR ceilings are possible in a compressed 
marine layer.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Generally MVFR-IFR ceilings across the 
region, dissipating through the late morning and early 
afternoon hours. Breezy northwest winds develop in the afternoon and 
evening. Some stratus may return to the mountains south of MRY this 
evening, with moderate confidence of expansion to the rest of the 
region and especially SNS through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 900 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

Northerly winds will increase today with moderate to fresh breezes
across the near shore waters and fresh to strong breezes offshore.
Occasional gale force gusts will occur in the far outer waters,
and the coastal jets to the south of Point Arena and along the Big
Sur Coast. Seas will build in response and become rough leading to
hazardous conditions over the coastal waters through the weekend
and into Monday morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 30 10:30:02 PDT 2026

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Revised: 29 Mar 2008 09:53 -0800 GMT (Pacific)