FXUS66 KMTR 280722
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1222 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026

 - Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend

 - Beneficial rain possible next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 
(Tonight through Sunday)

The longwave pattern over the region is mostly zonal flow aloft
with a few embedded ripples, which are discernible on water vapor
imagery. At the surface we're seeing a pattern shift. High
pressure over the Great Basin and troughiness at the coast led to
notable offshore flow yesterday. That has since faded as the 
surface high weakened and began to shift eastward toward the
Plains. A quick look at the satellite fog product shows the 
fading offshore flow is being replaced by a slow advancing 
southerly surge. Low clouds and fog are slowly oozing northward 
toward along the Big Sur coast. Hi-res WRF/HRRR/HREF guidance 
bring the surge northward initially to Monterey Bay and then
farther northward up the coast by mid to late morning. The surge
of clouds are predicted to hug the coast for most of the day
today. The cooler marine influence will keep coastal areas in 
check temp wise, but move a few miles inland and it will be much 
warmer with highs int he 70s and 80s. Those highs will be 10-15 
degrees above normal with a few climate sites make a run at 
records again. 

Tonight through Sunday...Shallow marine layer will hug the coast
and nose its way inland Saturday night. Given the compressed 
nature some patchy fog will be possible along the coast. Expect 
clouds/fog to linger through Sunday morning. Stronger northerly 
flow ramps up through the day Sunday with a hint of offshore flow.
As such, the marine layer clouds will dissipate and be most 
prevalent along the Central Coast. No big change in the airmass on
Sunday and less marine influence will actually lead to warmer 
temperatures around the region. Temps will be 70s and 80s with a 
few interior Central Coast spots making a run for 90. Goes with 
out saying, a few records may fall.



&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 
(Sunday night through next Friday)

To kick off the work week we'll begin to see a more noticeable
change in the overall sensible weather. The persistent ridge of
high pressure will get knocked down first by a weak upper level 
disturbance moving through the PacNW and much more robust upper 
trough deepening over the region by mid-week. Temperatures will 
initially drop by 5 to 10 degrees from Sunday to Monday. Despite 
the drop forecast highs on Monday are still a few above normal. 
Further cooling is expected through out the week with near normal
or seasonably cool temperatures by Wednesday. While the drop in 
temps will be welcomed sight for some much for was is being put 
on rain chances. So will it rain midweek? Previous model runs were
kinda split in two camps: one a deeper trough with more direction
impact over Central CA or less deepening of the trough and more 
impact northward. If you're looking for precip the trend isn't 
your and tonight's model trend is drier. The developing upper 
trough midweek is looking more like an inside slider with less 
"down the coast" trajectory. We were also monitoring a decent 
tropical moisture plume/tap as well. Sadly, this plume does take a
Central Coast path, but quickly gets shunted southward as the 
inside slider moves through. While rain falls amounts have lowered
we haven't completely removed rain just yet. Current forecast 
still brings light rain back to the region on Tuesday with more 
widespread/steadier rain Wednesday into Thursday. Now for the 
rainfall amounts: Interior Central Coast and far E Bay nothing to 
a trace/0.01", coast, North Bay, and Bay Area a few hundredths, 
and coastal mts up to 0.25"



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR with high clouds across the region. Onshore winds are 
diminishing across the region and will become light overnight. 
Stratus and fog are beginning to crawl up the Big Sur coast. Main 
forecast issue tonight is the progression and extent of this stratus 
through early Saturday morning. Current thinking is for the stratus 
to come to the immediate coastal terminals around 09-10Z, with 
intrusions into the Sonoma County valleys, the Berkeley area, and 
the Monterey Bay region through the morning. Moderate confidence for 
fog development at STS, HAF, MRY, and SNS through the morning. 
Stratus retreats and lifts through Saturday morning, with patchy 
stratus persisting at the immediate coast while the gentle onshore 
winds resume in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with thin high clouds through the TAF period. 
Breezy west-northwest winds continue through the evening hours. 
Winds gradually diminish in the late evening with light winds 
Saturday morning, before the breezy west-northwest winds resume 
during the afternoon. Very low confidence of stratus impacts tonight 
at the terminal, with moderate confidence of impacts to the Berkeley 
area and lower confidence at OAK. Confidence is slightly higher for 
stratus impacts Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the overall 
level of confidence remains low.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions at present, light winds 
through the night. Moderate to high confidence that a surge of 
stratus will impact the region beginning around 09-10Z with patchy 
fog likely. Saturday morning, ceilings lift and later dissipate as 
breezy northwest winds resume, with a potential early return of 
stratus around 03Z for MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 952 PM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific persists through the
weekend, generating a moderate to fresh NW breeze and moderate
seas. Conditions will be slightly heavier on Saturday across the
NW waters, with a fresh to strong NW breeze and rough seas to 8
ft. An incoming trough will shift winds to the west and southwest
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 952 PM PDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Here are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for
March 29th.

Location          March 29th

Santa Rosa        86 in 2018
San Rafael        85 in 2018
Kentfield         84 in 1935
Napa              83 in 2018, 1968
Richmond          79 in 1968
Livermore         85 in 2015
San Francisco     81 in 2018
SFO Airport       81 in 2018
Redwood City      85 in 2018, 1968
Half Moon Bay     77 in 2004
Oakland           79 in 2003
San Jose          82 in 2018
Salinas Airport   86 in 2018

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Mar 28 02:30:02 PDT 2026