FXUS66 KMTR 160904
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
204 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Warming and drying trend through Saturday

- Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker
  waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches Saturday

- Dry cold frontal passage Sunday into Monday, offshore flow Tuesday 
  into Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(Today through Saturday)

Surface high pressure building in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean 
will create a northerly (drying) gradient across the state today. 
This feature will continue to build into the Great Basin Friday into 
Saturday. As it does so, a coastal trough develops off the 
California Coast, which will generate light offshore flow. Sensible 
weather wise, the next three days will be that of a warming and 
drying trend with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(Sunday through Wednesday)

A dry cold frontal passage will do what it does best Sunday into 
Monday, bring temperatures down and wind speeds up. This will return 
temperatures to the below normal range. Winds are not expected to be 
impactful, but gusty conditions can be expected through gaps, 
passes, and across the higher terrain. Surface high pressure will 
quickly build in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean in the cold front's 
wake, setting up shop over the Intermountain West. As it does so, a 
coastal trough will develop off the California Coast, once again 
setting the stage for offshore flow. Fire weather wise, while we 
will be dealing with northerly flow and offshore flow which usually 
would be concerning in October, it'll generally be light and recent 
widespread wetting rainfall has put a damper, albeit not an end, to 
fire season. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

It's currently VFR with a decrease in low cloud coverage since 
late afternoon. However, based on recent mesoscale model output 
it's not a high confidence forecast as to whether or not low 
clouds will continue to steadily diminish tonight and Thursday 
morning. 06z TAFs are a blend of VFR-MVFR for the overnight with 
night-time cooling also leading to patchy fog /LIFR-IFR/ by early
Thursday morning. Diurnal surface heating and mixing results in 
VFR Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light and variable winds to light 
southeast winds tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds near 
10 knots redeveloping Thursday afternoon. Light and variable winds
to light southeast winds redevelop Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 851 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Light to gentle breezes persist across the waters this evening,
building to a moderate to fresh breeze through the end of this
week. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7
to 10 feet at 15 seconds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Oct 16 02:30:03 PDT 2025