FXUS66 KMTR 040532
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
932 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work
   week.

 - Hazardous beach conditions from late Wednesday night through
   Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

 - 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
   with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the 
   coastal mountains. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

Forecast remains on track with temperatures Wednesday peaking
around 10-20 degrees above normal across our area. A high
amplitude trough well offshore will slowly make progress toward
the California coastline through the remainder of the work week 
into the weekend. We'll see subtle midlevel height falls with 
slight decreases in thickness values leading to a gradual cooling 
trend Thursday through Saturday back down toward seasonally 
average temperatures. A slight chance for light rain enters the 
forecast Sunday evening with little to no impacts expected area 
wide. However there will be a number of outdoor events occurring 
Sunday, people should be prepared for cooler temperatures from 
increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of shortlived light 
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

High pressure remains firmly in control of the synoptic pattern
over the Western United States today. This has resulted in mostly
clear skies throughout the majority of the San Francisco and
Monterey Bay regions. Lingering Tule Fog is evident on GOES-West
imagery this early afternoon, confined to portions of far interior 
Contra Costa County along the Delta. Most communities will wrap 
the day up with about 2 to 5 deg F of warming compared to Monday. 
Exception to this will be the interior East Bay. For Wednesday, 
several locations will be within a few degrees of daily records 
for February 4. Official forecast for San Jose Airport tomorrow is
74 deg F (record is 76 deg F), Salinas Airport 79 deg F (record 
of 80 deg F), and Monterey Airport 77 deg F (record of 77 deg F).

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 142 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Pleasant and dry conditions will continue through the work week
before the West Coast ridge gets undercut by a weak upper-level 
low off SoCal and Baja California. This will promote the beginning
of a cooling trend around Friday that will last into the weekend.

By late weekend and into next week, ensemble guidance advertises 
the arrival of a progressive longwave trough to the West Coast, 
introducing something we haven't seen in a several weeks: rain. 
There has been a gradual delay with onset of rain chances. 
Previous forecast packages have noted arrival of rain as soon as 
early Sunday morning for coastal Sonoma and evening for the 
Central Coast. The NBM has continued this onset delay with the 
slight chance of rain now scheduled to arrive to the North Bay 
closer to mid-day Sunday and the Central Coast late evening Sunday
(i.e., pushed back by ~6 hours). Still, the total rainfall 
amounts appear to remain very light at this time. Some breezy 
winds may be associated with this system on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region barring some haze at LVK 
and a thin layer of radiational fog at STS. Through the night, Tule 
Fog impacts should develop in the far interior East Bay, with a low 
possibility for impacts to APC. Meanwhile, radiational fog and 
stratus may develop in the southern side of San Francisco Bay, but 
impacts to the main terminals are very low confidence. High 
resolution modeling is suggesting that the stratus at STS might 
linger longer than the current TAF forecast, resulting in low 
confidence in the clearing time Wednesday morning. Winds will remain 
in a generally offshore pattern, with gusty winds possible in the 
interior terminals Wednesday afternoon as a light onshore breeze 
develops at the immediate coastal regions.

Vicinity of SFO... Some high resolution guidance is developing 
stratus in the southern end of San Francisco Bay early Wednesday 
morning, but confidence in impacts to the terminal is low and the 
TAF remains VFR throughout. If stratus does form, greatest chance 
for impacts is around 14-18Z. Light southeast winds continue 
overnight through Wednesday morning before a light onshore breeze 
resumes in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Drainage winds 
overnight with a moderate breeze at SNS, with light onshore flow 
developing Wednesday afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 850 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

Light winds and seas continue through Wednesday with stable high
pressure over the region. Moderate northwest breezes and building
seas will cause a return of rough seas late Thursday through
Saturday. Northwest winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an
incoming cold front dropping down from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to
9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late Wednesday night through late 
     Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for 
     CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AN
LONG TERM....AN
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Feb 3 22:30:02 PST 2026