FXUS66 KMTR 122352
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
352 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

 - Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue today

 - Rain returns to the region Friday and into next week

 - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

 - Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions 
   Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(This afternoon through Friday)

The Bay Area and north Central Coast remains placed between high 
pressure extending into the Northern Rockies and a through about 
450 miles to the west-northwest. Meanwhile, a cut-off low pressure
is forecast to develop in the next 12 hours and head towards 
southern California and Baja California; moving inland by Friday 
morning/afternoon. That said, high clouds from the approaching 
weather system will be positioned over the region by this 
afternoon. This, along with cooling temperatures aloft, will 
result in a slight cool down compared to previous days.

Tonight and into early Friday morning, expect light to moderate 
rain in the coastal ranges and favored upslope regions along the 
coast ahead of the frontal boundary. Southerly winds are forecast 
to increase ahead of the cold front overnight with gusts of 25 to 
35 mph. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity between 8 AM 
- 1 PM Friday across the North Bay, between 10 AM - 3 PM across the 
Bay Area and South Bay, and 12 PM - 5 PM across the north Central 
Coast. With the cold air mass advecting in from the north, surface 
CAPE/most unstable CAPE values of up to 100-300 J/kg will result in 
around a 15% potential for thunderstorms. Any heavier rain shower 
and/or thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief heavy 
downpours, strong and erratic winds, and lightning. Wind gusts have 
the potential to reach or exceed 45 mph just ahead of the cold 
frontal passage, but are forecast to be short lived as winds 
becoming westerly and/or northwesterly in wake of the frontal 
passage while also easing. These stronger winds can cause trees or 
branches to fall and may result in isolated power outages. 

Rain totals from this system (Friday through Saturday afternoon) are 
expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (greatest in the 
coastal ranges), 0.3-0.8" for the San Francisco Bay Area and 
Monterey Bay region, up to 0.75-1.25" for the Santa Cruz Mountains 
and the Santa Lucia Range, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of 
Monterey and San Benito Counties. Post frontal rain showers are 
forecast to persist into Friday evening and early Saturday morning. 

Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more 
information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and 
Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

The storm door remains open through the 7 day forecast period! We 
are expecting another system to move through the region Sunday into 
Monday and a third system to arrive in the middle of the upcoming 
week. These systems are not forecast to stall over any one given 
area, thus reducing the potential for widespread flooding concerns. 
It is a bit to far out in time to talk about thunderstorm potential 
and rainfall amounts, yet current forecast do not seem much greater 
than the Friday system (1st system to impact the region). Be sure to 
stay informed on the latest forecast information as we the storm 
door remains open. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 348 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

A cold front is continuing to make its way into our forecast area 
with lower ceilings ahead of the front. Moderate to high confidence 
of ceilings lowering to MVFR just prior to or shortly after 
midnight. Strong southerly winds are expected to persist into mid-
day Friday with more uncertainty around rain start and end times.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR 
as we move into the overnight hours and the front approaches with
moderate confidence. Southerly winds are expected to continue to 
increase through the evening and overnight hours, with gusts up to
35kts as we head into Friday morning. Rain chances are expected 
to increase to 50% after 15Z, but confidence on the exact start 
time continues to remain low. An AWW will likely be necessary and 
issued later this evening for Friday morning into Friday 
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for the remainder of today and this
evening with a chance for ceilings to lower to MVFR after 
midnight out ahead of an advancing cold front mentioned above. 
For now, have kept VFR conditions through the forecast period, to 
see how low ceilings develop upstream ahead of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

Strong to near gale force gusts will continue to strengthen
tonight into Friday morning with gale force gusts becoming more
widespread by mid to late morning as a cold front pushes through
our coastal waters. After frontal passage, winds will shift
westerly and decrease to a moderate breeze by Friday evening.
Significant wave heights will gradually build to up to 30 feet by
Saturday with high seas to continue through much of the weekend
due to a distant hurricane force low. Wave heights decrease
slightly Sunday before increasing again Monday. Small crafts will
sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these extreme sea
states.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1145 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which 
point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. 
A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE 
Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high 
NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. 
Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker 
waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15-
20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking 
waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are 
likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power 
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. 
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the 
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and 
never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate 
somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives 
Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Thursday through Friday):

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from 
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns 
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and 
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is 
expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM 
Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 
11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will 
enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies 
up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and 
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-
period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific 
coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip 
currents.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding 
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. 
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% 
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher 
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea 
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly 
during high tide.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
     530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST 
     Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday 
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM/FR
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 12 16:30:03 PST 2026