FXUS66 KMTR 010504
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
904 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

 - Pleasant, warm and dry weather persists through the next week

 - Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore along the
   San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

 - Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker
   waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

The forecast is on track tonight with no changes necessary.
Interesting to note that temperatures along our coast this evening
are running 5-10 degrees higher than in southeast Florida. The
temperature at KSFO is currently 54, meanwhile KMIA is sitting at
46. Fortunately our warm and dry weather continues through the 
extended forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 152 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

Pleasant, warm, dry weather continues today and again tomorrow. 
Upper level ridging weakens slightly across California as a 
shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The 
only rain expected with this system is expected across far Northern 
California up through the PNW - in other words we remain dry as a 
bone. A weakening, trailing cold front associated with this system 
will, however, move through our CWA early Sunday morning. This will 
result in temperatures dropping up to 5 degrees between today and 
tomorrow. The largest drops will be from the South Bay into the 
Central Coast while temperature drops are relatively minimal across 
the rest of the Bay Area. Temperatures will largely be in the low to 
mid 60s with the exception of the interior Central Coast where high 
temperatures linger in the upper 60s to low 70s. We can also expect 
wind gusts over the marine environment and the higher elevations to 
strengthen Sunday into Monday. A few higher gusts may mix down into 
the lower elevations but they will largely be limited to the higher 
terrain.

High resolution models show a decent amount of fog developing 
tonight across the Bay Area but confidence is mixed on if this will 
occur. In favor of fog formation, winds will be light overnight and 
moisture will be decent. Fog is most likely to develop across the 
North Bay Valleys, East Bay Valleys, and the Delta/San Pablo Bay. 
The question then becomes how far into the SF Bay will fog/low 
clouds be able to develop and will it extend into the Bay Shoreline 
areas. HRRR and HREF guidance suggest that we will see a wider areal 
extent of fog cover tonight with fog extending into the Santa Clara 
Valley. Fog is most likely during the overnight/early morning hours. 
Anyone driving in the Bay Area, but particularly within the North 
and East Bay Valleys, should be prepared for sudden decreases in 
visibility and allow extra time to stop (if needed). A Beach Hazards 
Statement remains in effect through Monday, for more information see 
the BEACHES section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 152 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Slightly cooler temperatures continue into Monday with highs largely 
in the mid to upper 60s. The Salinas Valley continues to be a 
locally warmer region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected. 
Upper level ridging fully rebuilds over the West Coast Monday into 
Tuesday and firmly remains in place through the end of the forecast 
period. Notably, models are attempting to resolve a Rex Block (an 
area of high pressure/ridging directly north of an area of low 
pressure/troughing) that develops this week. In our case, we have a 
strong ridge centered over California/Nevada and a cut-off low to 
our south (near Baja California) that broke off from deep upper 
level troughing across the Central/Eastern US. We see this block 
develop around Tuesday but it looks to be short lived with models 
showing an incoming trough breaking down the ridge and picks up the 
cut-off low/reintegrates it into the jet stream Friday into next 
weekend. 

So what does this mean for our weather this week? Essentially we can 
expect a continuation of our warmer than normal, drier than normal 
pattern for the rest of the week. Temperatures remain in the upper 
60s to low 70s with the interior Central Coast peaking in the mid 
70s. Urban areas across the South Bay and Central Coast are expected 
to experience Minor HeatRisk this week as warmer temperatures 
continue. This level of HeatRisk is not impactful to the majority of 
the population but, if you are extremely sensitive to heat or 
predominantly work outside, make sure to listen to your body, drink 
plenty of water, and take breaks as needed. Winds are generally 
light and offshore through the week. Additional chances for fog are 
likely overnight/early in the morning across the North and East Bay 
Valleys this week. 

In response to a question we have received many times over the past 
few weeks, "where's the rain", it will hopefully return by mid-
February. Models do show deep upper level troughing entering the 
West Coast around 2/9-2/10 timeframe with almost all the ensemble 
members for the ECMWF and GFS showing light rain across the region. 
Given that this is still 9/10 days out, we can't put too much stock 
in this just yet. If these rain chances continue to hold as it gets 
closer in time, which they may or may not, then our confidence in 
the end of this dry spell will increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

500 mb high pressure system over our forecast area will steadily 
weaken tonight and Sunday. Conditions favor VFR with exception of 
patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ and areas of coastal stratus and fog
/LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR except tempo IFR stratus ceiling 12z-16z
Sunday. Mainly light and variable tonight and Sunday morning then
northwest near 10 knots Sunday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 15 knots 
with a few gusts to 20 knots possible in the Salinas Valley late 
tonight and Sunday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday 
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 848 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday morning and persist
through Monday with seas building to become rough across the
outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to
strong. Conditions improve Tuesday with moderate seas and a gentle
northerly breeze prevailing through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an 
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with 
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Pt 
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM PST Monday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jan 31 22:30:03 PST 2026